Who do you want at #11?

[SharpesTriumph]

Who to take at #11? Most people will say BPA, but to me that's a bit of a clichē. If the highest guy on your board is someone you don't see as a potential star and will be stuck behind a stud, why wouldn't you address an area of need instead? My biggest problem though, is how would anyone ever know who a team had rated higher between a few different guys? Teams can can straight up lie and nobody would ever know they did. Cronin goes into his post-draft press conference and says "we couldn't believe he was still available, so it was a no-brainer for us" and nobody would know better.
Plus, what all factors into ranking your BPA? I would think how a player fits into your team needs would factor into your rankings.
Last, completely outside of team need or BPA, who could fill a very specific role for future need? As in, we'll be facing Wemby and Flagg a minimum combined games of 10 times per year, more when you figure in playoffs. You're not gonna slow them down with one or two guys, no matter how good they are defensively. Figure in injuries and potential foul trouble in important games and you can make a case for drafting depth pieces just for that situation.
It might sound like a stretch, but if we plan on contending we'll have to be able to beat the Spurs and probably Mavs and it could come down to one game, or one quarter, or one possession. In that situation you're gonna hope you have the depth to help battle the best players you'll face. I'd rather have a good depth guy that can fill a specific need instead of just depth at any other position.
Bottom line, I'd rather have too many 6'10"+ guys than guards or wings.

Somehow your trying to change the definition of BPA to be contingent on a teams need.

The idea of BPA is relevant to an average NBA team, not your particular team. So think of it as how the player fits on the other 29 teams. BPA has nothing to do with your teams own roster. Need is how the player fits today on your own roster.

The reason BPA is a good strategy is teams needs change much faster than expected. Remember when we made the WCF? Two years later our GM was fired. A year and a half later Dame was traded. Two years later the team is for sale.

Rosters chance much faster than expected in the NBA. Draft picks are mostly 19 year olds that won't hit their prime for half a decade.

 

[HansenYang]

The kid is 18 years old, how does anyone really know what kind of pro he will? I guess anymore its not so much of what they have done in college but what their ceiling might be? Sure, he may end the best of the three and he may end up a bust.

How is that any different than anyone else in the draft (besides Flagg)?
Yes - Noa may end up being a bust. But so can Demin and Coward and Ace, VJ, KJ, Tre, Kon, CMB, and Queen.... (hopefully you get the point).

 

[cheesehoff]

The kid is 18 years old, how does anyone really know what kind of pro he will? I guess anymore its not so much of what they have done in college but what their ceiling might be? Sure, he may end the best of the three and he may end up a bust.

Which shows the problem with player comps. As soon as you attach a past player to a prospect, most people will then judge everything by the comps.
That's why when I try to make a player comp, I make sure to point out why I made the comp and it's never because of the finished product. If anyone was ever able to predict comps based on the finished product, there would never be busts or steals in the draft.
Player comps can make you look really bad or really good and you really have no control on what a prospect becomes. I approach it as if I'm describing a prospect to someone with no first hand knowledge of that player and I want to give an idea of what their physical makeup and playing style "resembles".

 

[Hoopguru]

How is that any different than anyone else in the draft (besides Flagg)?
Yes - Noa may end up being a bust. But so can Demin and Coward and Ace, VJ, KJ, Tre, Kon, CMB, and Queen.... (hopefully you get the point).

agree, especially now days when they come out so young. Actually, with college NIL, I see more guys going to school and/or staying, because of the money. Flagg I think made 8 million for playing 1 year at Duke.

 

[kjironman1]

So two weeks until the Draft. Do we have any real new candidates?
How are we doing on the workouts? Do you guys feel they are doing well?
I was wondering if Splitter and Crawford might be in on the workouts?

 

[STOMP]

I made a joke earlier about wanting Flagg at #11 but that touches on some of the reality of the situation, we don't know who will be available. There are more then a few players I'd be really happy that they drafted, some others I'd be trusting management has good reason to believe they're leveling up in skills &/or athleticism & some others discussed here I'd not be happy about. What makes me optimistic is that I've generally agreed with Cronin & Co.'s player decisions & am sure there will be some really good options still available when they select. I honestly haven't been so optimistic about the PTB in a long time and this draft leadup is proving a lot of fun. I'll answer the OP thread question when we're a bit closer and likely have a better feel for who they're selecting from

STOMP

 

[Sheldon Shape]

New mocks continue to pin Demin to Portland. Prepare yourselves.

Hope we can get #16 to get another guy.

 

[wizenheimer]

New mocks continue to pin Demin to Portland. Prepare yourselves.

Hope we can get #16 to get another guy.

the Blazer poster at RealGM implied that Demin may be leading the pack in the Blazer F.O. Not a sure bet at all, but the name mentioned the most

 

[RR7]

Love the thought of Demin personally. Can basically size wise slot in 1-4, which gives us a lot of lineup flexibility. Giddey style playmaker potential, but with the thought of having a better looking shot at least,and more defensive potential.

 

[Pinwheel1]

This draft is unusual. Prospects in the 5-15 range are pretty close in potential. I would guess that a lot of teams are going out of their way not to let everyone know who they want. So if everyone is led to believe we want Demin, I am betting that we want someone else.
Or at least I am hoping that is the case

 

[SharpesTriumph]

This draft is unusual. Prospects in the 5-15 range are pretty close in potential. I would guess that a lot of teams are going out of their way not to let everyone know who they want. So if everyone is led to believe we want Demin, I am betting that we want someone else.
Or at least I am hoping that is the case

Seems like recent drafts the Blazers direction has been leaked often. Sharpe, Scoot, Clingan.

 

[blazerkor]

Seems like recent drafts the Blazers direction has been leaked often. Sharpe, Scoot, Clingan.

Yeah it's almost like our assistant GM/draft guru is ESPN's draft guru's best friend or something.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

If ESPN has us taking Demin on their next mock, it’s probably him.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Seems like recent drafts the Blazers direction has been leaked often. Sharpe, Scoot, Clingan.

Yes, but as I said, this year's draft seems unusual. When we drafted Scoot, we weren't too concerned about SA and Charlotte taking him. We would have been happy with Miller or Wemby.

This year feels different if they have their sights on a particular player. Drafting at 11 is different than drafting at 7, even if it is just 4 extra spots. Easier for teams to jump ahead of you via a trade.

 

[STOMP]

Love the thought of Demin personally. Can basically size wise slot in 1-4, which gives us a lot of lineup flexibility. Giddey style playmaker potential, but with the thought of having a better looking shot at least,and more defensive potential.

There has been lots of smoke around Demin and the Blazers... he may be their guy. He is supposed to have worked on his shot and did shoot very well in the drills at the combine. If his athleticism was better, he'd be gone before #11... but thats the issue. My guess is at least initially he's going to be a weak link on D that teams will target

STOMP

 

[Pinwheel1]

There has been lots of smoke around Demin and the Blazers... he may be their guy. He is supposed to have worked on his shot and did shoot very well in the drills at the combine. If his athleticism was better, he'd be gone before #11... but thats the issue. My guess is at least initially he's going to be a weak link on D that teams will target

STOMP

Yeah, it all comes down to his D and who he is going to guard. He could turn out to be great, but I don't see him as anything but a backup PG. Which, granted, we do need.

 

[LayneStaley]

Demin is young and will need time but having a 6’9 point guard off the bench would be nice.

If we draft him I hope we trade for another 1st to address the shooting problem. If Ant goes we need shooting.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Demin is young and will need time but having a 6’9 point guard off the bench would be nice.

If we draft him I hope we trade for another 1st to address the shooting problem. If Ant goes we need shooting.

I think Coward fills that shooting need description, and he is big enough to do it at both SG and SF. The question is, will he be there at 16? The mocks have him as low as 23. I have a hard time believing that to be true.

 

[LayneStaley]

I think Coward fills that shooting need description, and he is big enough to do it at both SG and SF. The question is, will he be there at 16? The mocks have him as low as 23. I have a hard time believing that to be true.

Agreed I just saw one with him going 9.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Demin has the higher ceiling between him and Coward but I really like Coward. Would be cool to see them trade #16 and change for the rights to Coward or Bryant. But then again, I kind of doubt they'd get another wing after taking Demin. Fleming could be the guy at 16.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Demin has the higher ceiling between him and Coward but I really like Coward. Would be cool to see them trade #16 and change for the rights to Coward or Bryant. But then again, I kind of doubt they'd get another wing after taking Demin. Fleming could be the guy at 16.

Yeah, I am hoping for Coward at 11 and Fleming at #16. Although I would not be pissed with Demin and Coward as I view them as having two different types of skill sets. I just want to make sure we get one wing who we know can shoot.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Yeah, I am hoping for Coward at 11 and Fleming at #16. Although I would not be pissed with Demin and Coward as I view them as having two types of skill sets. I just want to make sure we get one wing who we know can shoot.

I think at #11 its what type of guy do you want? No doubt I think Coward/Bryant can be good but their ceiling is limited due to their lack of ability to create for themselves and others. Kasparas and Egor can do that which is why I have them with higher ceilings. The nice thing about Egor is when he gains strength, you can have him playing 1-4. That versatility can create mismatches.

Kasparas v. Egor

or

Coward v. Bryant

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

I get major Martell Webster vibes from Coward.

No thanks

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Yes, but as I said, this year's draft seems unusual. When we drafted Scoot, we weren't too concerned about SA and Charlotte taking him. We would have been happy with Miller or Wemby.

This year feels different if they have their sights on a particular player. Drafting at 11 is different than drafting at 7, even if it is just 4 extra spots. Easier for teams to jump ahead of you via a trade.

I suppose that is true with Scoot. But it seemed that Clingan was that type of situation last year same as this year where some had him going in a range potentially above us but it was still heavily reported we wanted him at 7. Similar with Sharpe.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think at #11 its what type of guy do you want? No doubt I think Coward/Bryant can be good but their ceiling is limited due to their lack of ability to create for themselves and others. Kasparas and Egor can do that which is why I have them with higher ceilings. The nice thing about Egor is when he gains strength, you can have him playing 1-4. That versatility can create mismatches.

Kasparas v. Egor

or

Coward v. Bryant

I agree with you about the importance of being able to create your shot. Egor should be able to eventually do that based on his handles. But not the part about Egor guarding 1-4 if he adds weight.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I get major Martell Webster vibes from Coward.

No thanks

Yes, he does have a Martell Webster vibe, just better. The measurements are similar, but at least Coward has 3+ years of college to evaluate his overall shooting skills.

Webster had a career 38% from three. I will take that. But where I think Coward excels is his pull-up mid-range jumper. Overall, he shot 56% from the field. Plus, I think he can be a better defender.

 

[PCmor7]

I look at Demin's upside as a taller Luka who can play defense and his floor as Josh Giddey.

I see Coward's ceiling as Kawhi and his likely outcome to be Desmond Bane.

If the Blazers stay at 11, I'd be thrilled with Knueppel, Demin, Coward or Essengue. Would be happy with Bryant or Murray-Boyles if they happened to get a second pick later in the teens.

 

[Sheldon Shape]

Yes, he does have a Martell Webster vibe, just better. The measurements are similar, but at least Coward has 3+ years of college to evaluate his overall shooting skills.

Webster had a career 38% from three. I will take that. But where I think Coward excels is his pull-up mid-range jumper. Overall, he shot 56% from the field. Plus, I think he can be a better defender.

That's a role player. I'm not aiming low with a lottery pick. Most upside are guys who can create.

 

[HansenYang]

I look at Demin's upside as a taller Luka who can play defense and his floor as Josh Giddey.

I see Coward's ceiling as Kawhi and his likely outcome to be Desmond Bane.

If the Blazers stay at 11, I'd be thrilled with Knueppel, Demin, Coward or Essengue. Would be happy with Bryant or Murray-Boyles if they happened to get a second pick later in the teens.

I don't see any evidence that Demin can have a positive impact playing D. Most of the game film I watched of him - he looks completely lost. He gets turned around and frequently has his back to the guy with the ball.

I like Coward, but those are some mighty lofty comparables for him. I think Bane is his absolute best case. Most likely outcome is Martell Webster.

Yes, he does have a Martell Webster vibe, just better. The measurements are similar, but at least Coward has 3+ years of college to evaluate his overall shooting skills.

Webster had a career 38% from three. I will take that. But where I think Coward excels is his pull-up mid-range jumper. Overall, he shot 56% from the field. Plus, I think he can be a better defender.

What makes you think he's 'better' than Martell?
Coward has a good game and likely to be a decent NBA player... but from the film I watched of him -> he certainly lacks the standout aggression or 'pop' to make him anything other than a decent role player.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I look at Demin's upside as a taller Luka who can play defense and his floor as Josh Giddey.

I see Coward's ceiling as Kawhi and his likely outcome to be Desmond Bane.

If the Blazers stay at 11, I'd be thrilled with Knueppel, Demin, Coward or Essengue. Would be happy with Bryant or Murray-Boyles if they happened to get a second pick later in the teens.

For me, it's just easier to say that I'll be most nervous if we draft Queen.