Why did we implode last season?

[Nikolokolus]

Aren't we relying on outside shooting this season too? I guess what I'm asking is... are we really the 2nd best team in the West and will we keep this up? Or are we about to fall off the map like we did last season too?

They're going to finish second to last only in front of OKC. Seriously, how the hell should we know what this team is going to do over the stretch?

On a more cheerful note, the fact that they aren't relying on huge win streaks and suffering through long droughts tells me that they are more consistent, and therefore probably more likely to sustain this effort than last years. Will they finish second in the West? I'd guess probably not, but I do think they'll win at least 50 games and be at least in the playoffs, which should make all of us happy.

 

[KingSpeed]

Do you think 2nd in the West is possible? That would be amazing. Most, at best, picked us to be 6-8.

 

[MARIS61]

It started with Nate tinkering too much with what was working and then our young guys hit the wall and then The Dark Lord gazed out from his tower and sent hordes of Orcs and Wargs and...uh never mind, I got sidetracked there.

 

[andalusian]

Aren't we relying on outside shooting this season too? I guess what I'm asking is... are we really the 2nd best team in the West and will we keep this up? Or are we about to fall off the map like we did last season too?

We are still shooting way more jumpers than is healthy - but we are a lot less reliant on it this year than last year.

Based on Joel's improved offensive production, Roy's higher FT rate and Oden's 8 PPG we get about 12 more PPG this year that are not jump-shots, but we lost about 5 PPG from Jack that were from drives/FT - so we are still getting 7 more none-jump shots per game. Add the fact that we are no longer out-rebounded as we were last year - and we are a lot less likely to have a big implosion as we did last year.

Personally, I expect Greg to get better as the year goes on - so hopefully there are 3 - 6 more PPG that are not jump-shots we will get - and I am willing to bet we will see Bayless get some play time after the trade dead-line - so hopefully we can recover Jack's lost 5 PPG from drives/FT.

But - a good backup PF that scores in the post to replace Frye's jump-shooting minutes next to Joel (who only scores on put-backs or dunks) - would probably be a very big help.

Maybe we can spend part of our cap-room on Paul Millsap for next year.

 

[handiman]

The 13-game winning streak was, by far, the easiest stretch of the team's schedule last year. 10 of the 13 wins were at home. And one of the three road wins was a buzzer beater over a crappy Memphis team that was starting Damon at PG and Darko at center.

Yes, they beat Utah twice during the early part of the streak, but Utah was playing like crap then. They were in the middle of a 6 game losing streak, and were barely 0.500 for the season in spite of a 7-2 start and went 5-11 for the month of December. The Blazers weren't the only ones beating them in December 2007. Utah didn't turn their season around until January.

There were a few home wins over quality opponenets during the streak, but you have to remember the team played well at home all season - and struggled on the road. Come January, the schedule was much tougher with a lot more road games. All young teams struggle on the road. It's to be expected.

BNM

What he said. I was going to make all the same points, but BNM spared me having to research all the details...

 

[MARIS61]

...Joel (who only scores on put-backs or dunks)

This is true only when Joel is with the starters, who NEVER run a play for him.

With Sergio he scores mostly on the break or the pick and roll.

 

[andalusian]

This is true only when Joel is with the starters, who NEVER run a play for him.

With Sergio he scores mostly on the break or the pick and roll.

Unfortunately, that's not true. When he was starting Joel had 3 games in double-digit points, since being moved to the 2nd units he only scored 10 points once and that was the Sacramento game where Greg had problems defending the King's long-range shooting bigs - so Joel spent a lot of time with the starters.

If you look at Joel's shots (which, with his remarkable FG% is pretty much also his makes) - he gets about 35% of his shots from assists.

Looking at the last games:

@ Toronto - Joel got one assist from Sergio
@ Boston - Joel got one assist from Roy
@ Washington - Joel got one assist from Rudy
@ NYK - Joel got one assist from Rudy
@ Detroit - Joel got one assist from Roy

The data, unfortunately, does not back your claims... - in the last 5 games Joel got 1 assist from Sergio.

 

[tlongII]

We started the season 22-13 and we were playing great basketball. So why did we play 19-28 the rest of the way? James Jones missed some games there. I also think that a big turning point in our season was when Roy missed games for a death in his family. I don't blame him but we needed those wins to stay afloat. Any thoughts as to how we completely crashed and how we can avoid that this season?

I believe it had something to do with you going on the road with them.