Why do we need a SF?

[RickyRubio]

Why does everyone keep saying we need a SF? Webster anyone? He is perfectly capable of starting at SF, but I would prefer to see Nic play the same role he did last year, with extended minutes. He played what, 10-15 minutes a game last year starting? Let him start again this year, play 15-18 minutes a game and have Martell play most of the rest. Rudy and Roy can also play some SF if needed. This is all assuming we dump Outlaw this off-season. If we don't, he can play SF too.

So, why do we need a SF? For defense you say? Nic will be a fine defender. He already is, just give him more minutes. Martell is more then capable of playing extended minutes at the SF.

I can see how we need a PG. Blake is not gonna cut if for a deep playoff run as a starter. Fantastic bench player, in my opinion. But not a championship caliber starter. I have high hopes for Bayless, but he wont be ready for a couple years, IF he progresses at the rate we all hope.

So, why do we need a SF again?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Nic is clearly the future at SF.

If can only help his development if we brought in a vet.

 

[BoBoBREWSKI]

I agree. We dont need a SF. We got Webster, Batum, and Rudy!

 

[RickyRubio]

Does Martell have any trade value on the market? I wouldn't think so as of now, since he was out all year. It is looking like we are stuck with him at least this year. I hope he plays well!!! If that shot ever goes down like we all hoped it would (Chuck Person style) I think we should keep him!!

 

[hasoos]

Well then Nic had better start carrying some of the scoring load. Nic is a great defender. Great that it nice and all. But the Blazers cannot have a situation in the playoffs again where the SF is a doughnut in the scoring column 5 out of 6 playoff games. If you have any hole in your offense, in the playoffs other teams will find it, and double team off of it, and take down your primary scorers. I have high hopes for Webster coming back. But until I hear he is practicing and doing full contact drills without issue, I am going to be a skeptic about him coming back from that injury.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Meh, I just think we need a legit 3rd option in the starting unit. Nic will be fine, in time.

Blake isn't that 3rd option. Could Bayless (or Curry) be that guy in a few years?

KP is still putting together the pieces of the puzzle. We'll get that guy until Nic is ready.

 

[RickyRubio]

Martell did impress me in the pre-season last year. He has been working on his shot all year this year. I hope he starts to play like his idol and do some damage next season. How great would that be for our team if he did pan out?!

 

[adrenalize74]

Meh, I just think we need a legit 3rd option in the starting unit. Nic will be fine, in time.

Blake isn't that 3rd option. Could Bayless (or Curry) be that guy in a few years?

KP is still putting together the pieces of the puzzle. We'll get that guy until Nic is ready.

3rd option will (should) be Oden next year....otherwise it will be Rudy. We dont need to find a 3rd option, he is already here.

Also, Martell has started running....so we will see how that goes.

 

[blue32]

I firmly believe that Martell will be our catalyst next year, alongside Oden's improvements.

And if Bayless takes over, that's a pretty scary lineup.....

oden, lma, webs, roy, b-rex.

 

[SteelBlaze1]

If you all say we do NOT need a SF or a 3rd scorer, then I guess the only needs we do have are veteran PG (better than Blake) and a banger backup PF. Not a bad situation to be in.

Sign Miller and McDyess and trade out of the draft and get ready for training camp.

 

[RickyRubio]

If you all say we do NOT need a SF or a 3rd scorer, then I guess the only needs we do have are veteran PG (better than Blake) and a banger backup PF. Not a bad situation to be in.

Sign Miller and McDyess and trade out of the draft and get ready for training camp.

I don't think either of them would come to Portland.

 

[Ed O]

If we had an average starter at the small forward last year, we would have been considerably better. We would have secured the second seed in the playoffs and perhaps have made it to the WC Finals... if not all the way.

Long term, I am very confident that Batum and/or Webster will be at least average NBA starters, but I am much less confident that it will happen in the next year or two. So, the thinking goes, adding an average starting small forward for the next few years would give us a better chance to be competitive for a title until Nic/Martel are ready to step up.

Ed O.

 

[SteelBlaze1]

I don't think either of them would come to Portland.

That is not the rumors I have been reading. I think Miller (or Sessions) is very likely. Not as sure about McDyess.

 

[Minstrel]

If we had an average starter at the small forward last year, we would have been considerably better. We would have secured the second seed in the playoffs and perhaps have made it to the WC Finals... if not all the way.

Long term, I am very confident that Batum and/or Webster will be at least average NBA starters, but I am much less confident that it will happen in the next year or two

I'd say Batum was very close to a league average starter this year. He had a 13.0 PER (15.0 is average starter) and he played excellent defense, which isn't really part of PER and very likely makes up that 2 PER gap or, at least, gets him extremely close.

I think with improvement, which should definitely be expected at his age, he could very well be an above average starter next season, factoring in both production and defense.

 

[MrJayremmie]

LOL, its pretty awesome the the OP in this thread has "Figure out how to get Hedo!!!" in his sig, when the thread is entitled "Why do we need a SF?"

Anyway, I also think that Batum is starting to get a little overrated on how good he really was this year. I don't think his potential can be overstated though.

For where he was drafted, and what we expected from him, his rookie year was a huge success. But overall, he was simply slotted in because he is a better starter than Outlaw, lol. Still, he is one of my favorite Blazers. The kid has the drive to be really good, similar to Bayless, which I love.

 

[Ed O]

I'd say Batum was very close to a league average starter this year. He had a 13.0 PER (15.0 is average starter) and he played excellent defense, which isn't really part of PER and very likely makes up that 2 PER gap or, at least, gets him extremely close.

15.0 is league average, not average for a starter.

Further, he only played 18.4 minutes a game, which meant that we were relying on backups (who, presumably, are inferior players) for almost 2/3 of the game.

Ed O.

 

[Minstrel]

15.0 is league average, not average for a starter.

I had thought Hollinger said 15.0 was calibrated to average starter. My mistake on that, then.

Further, he only played 18.4 minutes a game, which meant that we were relying on backups (who, presumably, are inferior players) for almost 2/3 of the game.

Yes, I wasn't saying that the Blazers' "small forward situation" was average this year. Just that Batum, as an individual, was pretty close to it. Perhaps a bit further from average starter than I thought, but still close enough to it that I think next season he should approximate one, assuming he improves. If he does improve and is given significantly more minutes, that will do a lot to solidify the position.

 

[RickyRubio]

LOL, its pretty awesome the the OP in this thread has "Figure out how to get Hedo!!!" in his sig, when the thread is entitled "Why do we need a SF?"

LMFAO!!! Okay you got me there. Only thing I could say to that is I would trade Webster (a SF), Outlaw (a SF) and whatever else it took besides Roy, LMA, GO, Bayless, Rudy, Batum or Joel to get Hedo!!!

But yeah, you got me good.

 

[andalusian]

15.0 is league average, not average for a starter.

Further, he only played 18.4 minutes a game, which meant that we were relying on backups (who, presumably, are inferior players) for almost 2/3 of the game.

Our back SF minutes went to Outlaw (15.1 PER), Rudy (15.4), Brandon (way over) or Webster (-8, but luckily just for 5 minutes).

Our SF position can (and should) get better - but it was not the big problem we had last year.

 

[Ed O]

Our back SF minutes went to Outlaw (15.1 PER), Rudy (15.4), Brandon (way over) or Webster (-8, but luckily just for 5 minutes).

Our SF position can (and should) get better - but it was not the big problem we had last year.

The question is not whether it was THE big problem we had last year. It's why people think we need an upgrade at the small forward spot.

With Outlaw and Rudy and Batum we had barely the league average in PER (perhaps even lower; I didn't break it down by minutes played), and only Batum is a plus defensively (I don't think Rudy is bad, but his defensive value is captured by PER, since it's getting steals)... I would expect our guys to improve at the small forward spot last year, but if we had had, say, Gerald Wallace (18.6 PER, good defense above and beyond steals and blocks) I would bet we'd have won at least one more regular season game, securing the second seed in the western conference.

Ed O.

 

[Masbee]

The question is not whether it was THE big problem we had last year. It's why people think we need an upgrade at the small forward spot.

With Outlaw and Rudy and Batum we had barely the league average in PER (perhaps even lower; I didn't break it down by minutes played), and only Batum is a plus defensively (I don't think Rudy is bad, but his defensive value is captured by PER, since it's getting steals)... I would expect our guys to improve at the small forward spot last year, but if we had had, say, Gerald Wallace (18.6 PER, good defense above and beyond steals and blocks) I would bet we'd have won at least one more regular season game, securing the second seed in the western conference.

Ed O.

I know you are being conservative with the "one more" win estimate. I think it would have been easily two, three or more wins. Too bad the Bobs demanded Batum going back their way in the deal.

 

[andalusian]

The question is not whether it was THE big problem we had last year. It's why people think we need an upgrade at the small forward spot.

I was referring to the following:

If we had an average starter at the small forward last year, we would have been considerably better. We would have secured the second seed in the playoffs and perhaps have made it to the WC Finals... if not all the way.

Which is, to be honest, a rather trivial answer if you do not think of it referred to as :THE: big problem. The way I read it is as such - otherwise - how is it any different from:

If we had an average starter at the POINT GUARD last year, we would have been considerably better. We would have secured the second seed in the playoffs and perhaps have made it to the WC Finals... if not all the way.

I guess I read into it something more than the "well duh" answer - and if so, I am sorry.

The point is that there are tons of ways we could have been much better than we were last year - better offensive production from the center position, better defense from the PG position, a reliable 3rd scorer (regardless of position).

At the end of the day - we can and should get better at SF - but this is not the real culprit for this team.

 

[Ed O]

Which is, to be honest, a rather trivial answer if you do not think of it referred to as :THE: big problem. The way I read it is as such - otherwise - how is it any different from:

1. The thread is about why we need a small forward. Why would I talk about our need at point guard here?

2. Some people--even very knowledgeable fans in this thread--were under the impression that we had an average starting small forward last year. I don't think that we had anything approaching that.

Sorry if you consider my response trivial.

Ed O.

 

[andalusian]

1. The thread is about why we need a small forward. Why would I talk about our need at point guard here?

Fair enough. I just found the phrasing very determined and assume it implied that this was THE problem - especially since we did get production from 15+ PER player other than Nic who was probably good enough to be an average player given his production - where you specifically added that:

"which meant that we were relying on backups (who, presumably, are inferior players) for almost 2/3 of the game."

By PER - the backups were also up to average standard - so overall - it just seemed like a rather forceful argument to me.

 

[Ed O]

Fair enough. I just found the phrasing very determined and assume it implied that this was THE problem - especially since we did get production from 15+ PER player other than Nic who was probably good enough to be an average player given his production - where you specifically added that:

"which meant that we were relying on backups (who, presumably, are inferior players) for almost 2/3 of the game."

By PER - the backups were also up to average standard - so overall - it just seemed like a rather forceful argument to me.

As I mentioned above, 15 is NOT an average PER for an NBA starter... it's the average for an NBA player. I don't know what the average for an NBA starter is, but I'd bet that it's better than 15.

Ignoring Roy (because if we play him at the 3, it means that we had Rudy at the 2 most of the time), our small forward rotation looks something like this (in terms of PER, divided into thirds).

13/15/15 ... for an average PER of 14.33.

If you had an average starting small forward that played a reasonable amount for a starter (let's say 32 minutes), and assuming we could get a league-average player to back him up, it would be

X/X/15

If X = 17, that would put the average PER at 16.33.

I don't know how many wins that translates to over the course of a season, but I would bet it is not an insignificant difference.

Ed O.

 

[andalusian]

Actually, Hollinger's rough guide to PER values is as follows:

*A Year For the Ages: 35.0
*Runaway MVP Candidate: 30.0
*Strong MVP Candidate: 27.5
*Weak MVP Candidate: 25.0
*Bona fide All-Star: 22.5
*Borderline All-Star: 20.0
*Solid 2nd option: 18.0
*3rd Banana: 16.5
*Pretty good player: 15.0
*In the rotation: 13.0
*Scrounging for minutes: 11.0
*Definitely renting: 9.0
*On next plane to Yakima: 5.0

15 is average NBA per minute production - but because starters (especially very good players) play more minutes - Hollinger has pretty much defined 15 as an average NBA starter - for comparison purposes...

15 is not the average NBA player - because this ignores the minutes these different players play. I have read Hollinger articles that refer to 15 as the average stater because of this - and this is why I refer to it as such.

If the average starter in the NBA was 16.33 as you suggest - and Hollinger calls a 16.5 PER a 3rd banana - the average starter in the NBA would pretty much be a 3rd banana - and this just does not make sense... (unless the NBA played 3 on 3 - which they only do during the all-star weekend and one of these guys there is retired and one of the players is from the WNBA...).

So - going back to our original discussion - it does not seem that Portland's SF rotation is much worse than average starter quality...

 

[B-Roy]

I say trade Nic for a good SF.

 

[chris_in_pdx]

I firmly believe that Martell will be our catalyst next year, alongside Oden's improvements.

And if Bayless takes over, that's a pretty scary lineup.....

oden, lma, webs, roy, b-rex.

That, in my mind, is the Championship Nucleus 5 that will rule the NBA for years.

 

[andalusian]

Just an alternate point showing that Portland's SF rotation is not a problem - is taking 82games.com breakdown by position:

Portland's production from the SF position is marked at PER 17.5 (above average - not a real surprise since Roy did spend a nice amount of time there playing next to Blake and Rudy), opposing SF PER is pegged at 14.9 and net production per game shown as +2.6 in PER or +2 in PPG.

 

[Ed O]

If the average starter in the NBA was 16.33 as you suggest - and Hollinger calls a 16.5 PER a 3rd banana - the average starter in the NBA would pretty much be a 3rd banana - and this just does not make sense... (unless the NBA played 3 on 3 - which they only do during the all-star weekend and one of these guys there is retired and one of the players is from the WNBA...).

I'm not sure that aligns with reality, though. Looking at the top 150 (which is 30 * 5) players in the NBA, as sorted by PER, gives us an average PER of 17.78. The 75th highest PER (which is half of 150) is right at 17.

I don't see how 15 could be considered an "average" starter when 128 players in the NBA had a PER of over 15 last year...

So - going back to our original discussion - it does not seem that Portland's SF rotation is much worse than average starter quality...

I asserted that if we had a better small forward, we would have won more games, and I still believe that our small forward rotation would have been markedly improved with an average small forward starter playing more minutes a game last year.

Ed O.