Win total - Over / Under?

[hoopsjock]

Me too. I think 47 wins in this conference equates to "just fine". What I don't buy into is people's prognostications of 55+ and another top 3 seed.

For the record, I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just not going to doubt a team with Damian Lillard on it after what I've seen the last two years.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

And to me that is exactly the type of post that I read all last summer.

But what was the basis therefor?

Last year, there wasn't anything that occurred in the off season to cause any reason to legitimately think the team would be any worse than the year before. That can not be said this year.

The last time we had this drastic of a change in personnel, the team ended up 10 games worse than the prior season, and that was only because CJ was the league's MIP.

I'd be absolutely shocked if this squad won 53+ again this season, and I'd be willing to put something on it.

 

[illmatic99]

But what was the basis therefor?

Last year, there wasn't anything that occurred in the off season to cause any reason to legitimately think the team would be any worse than the year before. That can not be said this year.

The last time we had this drastic of a change in personnel, the team ended up 10 games worse than the prior season, and that was only because CJ was the league's MIP.

I'd be absolutely shocked if this squad won 53+ again this season, and I'd be willing to put something on it.

really not buying this change of personnel narrative. The guys we lost were low impact, low usage players (both aminu and harkless were ranked as our lowest on the roster last year). And Turner was surprisingly low at only 16% last year, tied with Jake Layman of all people. We still have Dame/CJ. Nurk will obviously be the big missing piece but Whiteside should be fine in a pinch. Essentially, we have to incorporate ONE new guy of significance. it's not nearly as drastic as you're making it out to be. Even Terry said he was going to look back to using Hassan like he did Rolo, which should make the transition very smooth.

hard to quantify this defensively obviously, but we've been an average defensive team for the most part during Terry's tenure. I doubt the chemistry will make much of a difference on that end. If anything, it should improve just going from Kanter in the playoffs to Hassan now.

 

[hoopsjock]

But what was the basis therefor?

Last year, there wasn't anything that occurred in the off season to cause any reason to legitimately think the team would be any worse than the year before. That can not be said this year.

The last time we had this drastic of a change in personnel, the team ended up 10 games worse than the prior season, and that was only because CJ was the league's MIP.

I'd be absolutely shocked if this squad won 53+ again this season, and I'd be willing to put something on it.

You're equating losing Aminu, Harkless, Turner, Kanter, Leonard, etc. to losing Aldridge, Matthews, Batum, Lopez, Afflalo, etc.???

 

[e_blazer]

But what was the basis therefor?

Last year, there wasn't anything that occurred in the off season to cause any reason to legitimately think the team would be any worse than the year before. That can not be said this year.

The last time we had this drastic of a change in personnel, the team ended up 10 games worse than the prior season, and that was only because CJ was the league's MIP.

I'd be absolutely shocked if this squad won 53+ again this season, and I'd be willing to put something on it.

And why does this change in personnel bother the Blazers so much more than the rest of the West? Pretty much everybody but the Nuggets and Jazz had major roster turnovers. Even the Jazz will be incorporating two new starters (Conley and Bogdanovic). The Rockets have most of their starters back, but they're adding Westbrook to the starting lineup. That get's extra points for potential explosion. There are only two players back from last year's Laker squad. Three, I think, from last year's Clippers team. Four for the Warriors (excluding Klay because of his injury).

 

[PtldPlatypus]

You're equating losing Aminu, Harkless, Turner, Kanter, Leonard, etc. to losing Aldridge, Matthews, Batum, Lopez, Afflalo, etc.???

2015:
We replaced Rolo with Plumlee--lateral move
We replaced Batum with Aminu--lateral move
We replaced Aldridge('s scoring) with CJ's--unexpectedly lateral move
We lost Wes, and really didn't replace what he provided with anything comparable. Crabbe, I guess.

2019:
We replaced Nurk (injury) with Whiteside--lateral move (maybe? I see it as a downgrade, but who knows?)
We replaced Meyers with Pau--negligible impact, 'cause it was Meyers
We replaced Chief by promoting Collins--might be an improvement, who knows?
We replaced Curry('s shooting) with Tolliver's--looks like a downgrade to me
We replaced Turner with Hezonja--lateral move?
We replaced Harkless with Bazemore--lateral move?

There are a lot of question marks there, and we lose the roster continuity that has been our bread and butter for the last few years.

Neither one of us is going to convince the other, and that's fine, but there's absolutely merit to my position.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

And why does this change in personnel bother the Blazers so much more than the rest of the West? Pretty much everybody but the Nuggets and Jazz had major roster turnovers. Even the Jazz will be incorporating two new starters (Conley and Bogdanovic). The Rockets have most of their starters back, but they're adding Westbrook to the starting lineup. That get's extra points for potential explosion. There are only two players back from last year's Laker squad. Three, I think, from last year's Clippers team. Four for the Warriors (excluding Klay because of his injury).

Jazz are incorporating talent upgrades.
Rockets are adding a talent upgrade (which admittedly could blow up)
Lakers got clear top-end talent upgrades.
Clippers got clear top-end talent upgrades.

Warriors are the only team you mentioned that's in a similar boat to the Blazers, with significant turnover hoping just to balance out the roster losses.

 

[Eastoff]

If Nurk was healthy, I'd take the over. No Nurk (sorry Whitehead) and I take the under without hesitation. I really think some of you underestimate Nurk's value.

Whiteside, not Whitehead.

 

[e_blazer]

Jazz are incorporating talent upgrades.
Rockets are adding a talent upgrade (which admittedly could blow up)
Lakers got clear top-end talent upgrades.
Clippers got clear top-end talent upgrades.

Warriors are the only team you mentioned that's in a similar boat to the Blazers, with significant turnover hoping just to balance out the roster losses.

The Blazers are incorporating experienced players. I'll give you that Conley is a seasoned pro who should fit seamlessly with the Jazz. Bogdanovic, less so. The Rockets trying to merge the talents of Westbrook and Harden is playing with nitroglycerine, as far as I'm concerned. The Lakers only added one clear top-end talent (one who gets injured a lot, I might add). The rest is a bunch of mismatched luggage. Same with the Clippers. Two clear top-end talents and a bunch of other guys who are going to have to figure out their roles and pecking order. Other than the Jazz, I'm not buying that merging the new talent is easier for any of those teams than what the Blazers will face with an established star duo as stable as Dame and CJ.

 

[hoopsjock]

2015:
We replaced Rolo with Plumlee--lateral move
We replaced Batum with Aminu--lateral move
We replaced Aldridge('s scoring) with CJ's--unexpectedly lateral move
We lost Wes, and really didn't replace what he provided with anything comparable. Crabbe, I guess.

2019:
We replaced Nurk (injury) with Whiteside--lateral move (maybe? I see it as a downgrade, but who knows?)
We replaced Meyers with Pau--negligible impact, 'cause it was Meyers
We replaced Chief by promoting Collins--might be an improvement, who knows?
We replaced Curry('s shooting) with Tolliver's--looks like a downgrade to me
We replaced Turner with Hezonja--lateral move?
We replaced Harkless with Bazemore--lateral move?

There are a lot of question marks there, and we lose the roster continuity that has been our bread and butter for the last few years.

Neither one of us is going to convince the other, and that's fine, but there's absolutely merit to my position.

I'm not trying to convince you but I guarantee you didn't have those 2015 takes before the 2015-16 season started.

 

[kjironman1]

So it this the official prediction thread? Or is this just an over/under thread? And is it "official".

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

So it this the official prediction thread? Or is this just an over/under thread? And is it "official".

THIS IS SPAR... This is just summer fun!

 

[e_blazer]

2015:
We replaced Rolo with Plumlee--lateral move
We replaced Batum with Aminu--lateral move
We replaced Aldridge('s scoring) with CJ's--unexpectedly lateral move
We lost Wes, and really didn't replace what he provided with anything comparable. Crabbe, I guess.

2019:
We replaced Nurk (injury) with Whiteside--lateral move (maybe? I see it as a downgrade, but who knows?)
We replaced Meyers with Pau--negligible impact, 'cause it was Meyers
We replaced Chief by promoting Collins--might be an improvement, who knows?
We replaced Curry('s shooting) with Tolliver's--looks like a downgrade to me
We replaced Turner with Hezonja--lateral move?
We replaced Harkless with Bazemore--lateral move?

There are a lot of question marks there, and we lose the roster continuity that has been our bread and butter for the last few years.

Neither one of us is going to convince the other, and that's fine, but there's absolutely merit to my position.

We replaced Nurk (injury) with Whiteside--lateral move (maybe? I see it as a downgrade, but who knows?)

Whiteside is the move that concerns me the most as it is the one most essential to the Blazers success until Nurk returns. From a basketball standpoint, I think it's close to a wash, but I do think we're going to miss Nurk's ability to create his own shot. It's from a personality/stability point of view that I'm most concerned. I think Dame is going to be challenged bringing Whiteside into the fold. That said, once Nurk returns, having two centers as talented as these guys are has the potential to be a real difference-maker going into the playoffs.

We replaced Meyers with Pau--negligible impact, 'cause it was Meyers

I think Pau is going to be a much bigger impact than you're giving him credit for. As player, you're going to get 10-15 solid minutes from him. The dude knows how to play in a way that Meyers can only dream of. His mentorship has the potential to really help Zach Collins.

We replaced Chief by promoting Collins--might be an improvement, who knows?

This will be a critical point for the Blazers and you're right to highlight it. I don't think that there's any doubt that Zach is more talented than Chief, but he's young and he has a hard time avoiding fouls. He's going to have to grow into his new starting role. It's his third year, so I think that there's reason for optimism.

We replaced Curry('s shooting) with Tolliver's--looks like a downgrade to me

I think that this is a kind of weird way of looking at three point shooting for the Blazers. While there's no doubt that Curry has the higher shooting percentage over Tolliver, he didn't get that many attempts for it to be a big issue in the overall scheme of things. I don't think that there's much doubt that Hill, Bazemore, Tolliver and Ant collectively add improved 3 point shooting for the team.

We replaced Turner with Hezonja--lateral move?

Hopefully this is no worse than a lateral move. Hezonja has more of an offensive repertoire than Turner, but he hasn't proved himself yet as a consistent player. ET was a turnover machine at times and a bricklayer from 3, but he did run the second unit well and was great for the team chemistry. The jury is definitely out on this one.

We replaced Harkless with Bazemore--lateral move?

I'm more inclined to think that Hood will get the starting 3 nod just because of familiarity, but it could be Bazemore. Hood definitely has more offensive game than Moe, but Moe (when healthy) was probably a better defender. Moe wasn't always healthy though. I'd say Bazemore is probably on Moe's level defensively because of wingspan. Overall, I think if you look at the combined attributes of Hood/Bazemore vs Harkless/Layman, this year's SF rotation is better.

 

[THE HCP]

So it this the official prediction thread? Or is this just an over/under thread? And is it "official".

Can't see how it can be before training camp and we see these guy play in preseason. Shit the schedule isn't even out! How many back to backs on the road do we have. How many teams are we playing who have had a day off before?

 

[mook]

The 2019 aren't competing against the 2016 Blazers. They're competing against a conference full of other teams that also feel like they have a real shot for the first time in half a decade.

This team very well may end up better than last year's squad but still take a hit in the win total due to the very real concerns of which we're all aware.

Every single year we all think the Western Conference got Really Really Good, and every year some teams overperform, some under, and some star players get injured or another step slower. And sometimes a guy on your own team breaks out in a really surprising way.

The WC has been a bloodbath really for around 20 years. This year isn't that different. It's all about the stars. It added Porzingis, Connely and Kwame, but it lost Durant, and Klay Thompson is gone until after the All Star Break, if not longer. It consolidated two MVP-caliber players (Harden/Westbrook) onto a team where the sum of parts will clearly be worse than the whole, meaning OKC will be much less competitive. And Houston may be less competitive too. It added Zion, but LeBron is now on year 35 (and a billion or so minutes played). Everybody seems to be talking about load management except Portland.

Overall, it looks like it got a little harder, but that's assuming stars with long injury histories don't get new injuries. Meanwhile, Portland got better too by upgrading at the center position from Kanter, and I personally think by shifting Collins and Simons into more prominent roles. (I think CJ and Dame have found a whole new level of swagger as well. Deep playoff experience matters.)

Lots of pundits and fans look at the conference and the schedule and story lines and do elaborate thought experiments of identifying "winnable games", etc.

I tend to evaluate my current team vs recent versions of my teams, figuring all that other stuff is mostly hand waving and guessing at a million factors nobody can predict. Did my team win 53 games last year? Is it a little better to potentially a lot better? Then I should predict more than 53 wins.

In the past 6 years I've generally been much closer to the mark than the general consensus on where the Blazers will land record-wise. I could be wrong this year. Time will tell.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

I think I'll wait to see who around the league gets injured in preseason for example. Or even better to see our schedule.

Why not wait until game 81?

 

[wizenheimer]

And one thing that doesn't get mentioned is CJ's 3pt shooting. Last year, he dropped nearly 5% from where he was in 16-17. His TS% was around what he's been for his career mostly because he attempted one more shot from outside, but there was a very obvious dip in efficiency. I think it's fair to expect him to bounce back up with better shot selection. He seemed to round back into form in the playoffs.

I'm a little bit confused if you're talking just 3pt efficiency or over all efficiency?....sure seems like you're talking overall efficiency.

if that's so, he didn't 'dip' last season. He actually improved over the previous season and was at or above his career efficiency marks:

eFG%: last season .527....season before .506....career .522....(last playoffs .506)
PER: last season 17.0....season before 17.0....career 17.2....(last playoffs 17.9)
TS%: last season .553....season before .536....career .552....(last playoffs .527)
assist/turnover: last season 1.95....season before 1.80....career 1.69....(last playoffs 1.97)

now, PER is mostly about volume and raw production but there's a little efficiency metric to it. And, in terms of efficiency CJ was way down in the playoffs. He just made up for it with volume...he attempted 4.1 more FG's in the playoffs then he did in the regular season, and in some games, the timing of those extras FGA's had much higher stakes and were a lot more memorable

while those assist/turnover numbers are encouraging on the surface, there's more to it than just that...

assists/game: 2015-16 4.3 2016-17 3.6 2017-18 3.4 2018-19 3.0
assist rate: 2015-16 21.6% 2016-17 18.0% 2017-18 15.8% 2018-19 13.8%

that's not all bad in that his turnovers have fallen at about the same clip his assists have. Still, that trend is going in the opposite direction of what Portland really needs from him considering how much he has the ball in his hands. That may be even more true next season as there are serious questions if Portland has enough play-making with Turner gone and no backup PG on the roster

I'm guessing that a lot of people keep expecting CJ to get back to the level of efficiency and production he posted in 2016-17. His numbers that year were way above his norms, while his other 3 years as a starter all had pretty similar efficiency and production numbers; indicating that 2016-17 may have been an outlier

In order to 50+ games, we need to win 3 of 4 at home, and go .500 on the road. It's not THAT hard. There are some serious gimme games against the east this year. And I think we can take advantage of teams finding a footing like LAC/LAL/HOU/GS/UTA all of whom had turnover to their big usage positions.

I think it depends on the start of the season

* in 2015/16 when Portland won 44, they got of to a 7-12 and 11-20 start
* in 2016-17 when Portland won 41, they got off to 8-9 and a 13-20 start
* in 2017-18 when they won 49, they got off to a 10-8 and 16-16 start
* last season, winning 53, they got off to a 12-5 and 18-13 start

all 4 seasons they had hot streaks in the 2nd half of the season, but last season was the first they were +5 wins about 30 games in. That was the margin for winning 53

problem is I think the Blazers will be "finding a footing" like many of the other teams. They will have 3 new starters and about half of their rotation will be new to their Blazer roles. Not only that, the Blazers are making big bets on Zach and Simons. That's pretty thin ice for a good start to the season

 

[illmatic99]

3pt%. It's fairly obvious what I said without the need for you to write a thesis about the definition of efficiency. Went from 42% to 37% in two years.

 

[kjironman1]

That may be even more true next season as there are serious questions if Portland has enough play-making with Turner gone....

Not gonna nit pick this because it is true. Just thought it was funny.
Turner???? Play Making? For who?

 

[THE HCP]

Not gonna nit pick this because it is true. Just thought it was funny.
Turner???? Play Making? For who?

ET got blasted on here, but I feel a better with the ball in his hands bringing it up the court than I am with Simons at this point. It going to be a steep learning curve this winter for the young one.

 

[wizenheimer]

Not gonna nit pick this because it is true. Just thought it was funny.
Turner???? Play Making? For who?

yeah...I felt a little dirty writing that, but Turner was 2nd on the team in assists

in fact, of the rotation players, last season, assists/36:

Damian Lillard 7.0 Evan Turner 6.3 Jusuf Nurkić 4.2 Nik Stauskas 3.3 CJ McCollum 3.1

21 assists, and Portland is only bringing back 10, and something tells me Whiteside won't be the one to fill in that number

 

[wizenheimer]

3pt%. It's fairly obvious what I said without the need for you to write a thesis about the definition of efficiency. Went from 42% to 37% in two years.

View attachment 27276

c'mon man...you're the one that brought up efficiency. And in your post, you mentioned 3 pt percentage and TS% AND shot selection. Those are three different things and only 1 of the 3 is exclusively about three's. That's why I said I was a little confused by what you wrote.

and you're kind of proving my point about people focusing on CJ's 2016-17 season. That's a definite high water mark yet it's what you seem to be using as some kind of baseline

 

[kjironman1]

ET got blasted on here, but I feel a better with the ball in his hands bringing it up the court than I am with Simons at this point. It going to be a steep learning curve this winter for the young one.

I have to admit when i was at games i watched how the team in general reacted when he was on the court. He did bring something that the team responded well to.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I have to admit when i was at games i watched how the team in general reacted when he was on the court. He did bring something that the team responded well to.

The opposing team also often responded well to his presence.

 

[THE HCP]

The opposing team also often responded well to his presence.

How do you think the opposing team will do with Simons then?

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

How do you think the opposing team will do with Simons then?

Well, they will actually have to guard him so there is that.

 

[illmatic99]

That's a definite high water mark yet it's what you seem to be using as some kind of baseline

Where'd you get that from my post: "His TS% was around what he's been for his career"

 

[tester551]

Where'd you get that from my post: "His TS% was around what he's been for his career"

You're looking at the wrong post. Wiz is basing if off this post where you said:

3pt%. It's fairly obvious what I said without the need for you to write a thesis about the definition of efficiency. Went from 42% to 37% in two years.

View attachment 27276

Wiz's point is that the year CJ shot 42% was his "best" season. Expecting CJ to replicate that year in/year out is not realistic. Instead, it should be considered a plausible best case scenario.

 

[Titan]

Not trying to make a big deal about CJ's 3pt shooting %, but in his first 3 seasons being a full time starter he averaged 41.2%. His last season the average is lower at 37.5%. So last season can also be considered an outlier. I for one believe he will be having more seasons at low 40s and it does seem attainable. Until Simons burst into the GOAT that we all believe he will become.

 

[hoopsjock]

ET got blasted on here, but I feel a better with the ball in his hands bringing it up the court than I am with Simons at this point. It going to be a steep learning curve this winter for the young one.

Except every single possible stat and metric showed that this team was worse on both offense and defense when ET was playing.