I think the thinking is that, if we amnesty Roy, we are now looking at a cap number of around 56M, which puts us slightly under the cap (58M), but not far enough to make any deals for >MLE. If we don't, we have a cap number of 71M
plus whatever Greg ends up with, plus Nolan and Diebler etc.
So it becomes a matter of whether we can go after free agents using the "Big" MLE (which you can only use if you are NOT a taxpayers--under 70.3M cap #) or whether we can only use the mini-MLE. The Big can be for 4 years and 20.45M guaranteed. The mini can only be 3yr/9.27M guaranteed.
If Roy is not amnestied, it doesn't matter what we do with Oden or Smith, etc.....we're going to be in the lux tax region and have to stick with only the mini-MLE. If Roy is amnestied, we can sign Oden, Smith, Diebler all to deals (provided they add up to less than 14M or so this year) and still use the 4/20.45M MLE.
The thinking of many is that, while there's a chance that Crawford or others of similar talent
may take a full MLE to go where they want to, there's no way in hell they're leaving 11M guaranteed on the table.