You can build a great team with non-lottery picks

[Rastapopoulos]

Who're the best? Spurs and who else? Jazz seem to do well (don't just look at who they PICKED, look who the ended up with - for example, they didn't pick Gobert but they traded for him immediately. (Like Dallas actually didn't draft Nowitzki, but they knew they could get him AND more from a team below them, and always had him as their guy.))
Milwaukee have Giannis and Brogdon. You might say they should've done better than Parker at #2 and Thon Maker in the last draft, but Parker is coming along nicely and I think Maker will end up being very good, he's just very VERY raw right now.
Sacramento is particularly bad, as has been noted. Charlotte ain't so great either, although Cho has built a solid team by other routes (including by conning another GM into giving them their best all-round player). Warriors have done incredibly well, of course, as they drafted and managed to keep their title-team core. Houston just tends to draft the player with the best PER, and sometimes that works. Denver getting Jokic was an incredible steal, of course.

 

[Minstrel]

Name a sustained great team who hasn't that way

Winning one title would be plenty successful, and require a great team. If you want to be the Spurs, the Warriors, the '90s Bulls, then sure, you'll need a generational superstar.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Detroit Pistons

To say sustained isnt fair. how many teams sustain period.

Great ones. That's what the thread title was. Pistons were contenders for several years with a shot load of talent and a weak ass conference.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

i like what the bucks have done for the most part. couple late lotto picks thrown in as well.

since 2010
larry sanders at #15
jimmer at #11 to trade for tobias harris
jon leuer at #40
henson at #12
giannis at #15
jabari at #2

not a bad little core (too bad larry sanders lost his mojo) and then in the last two years:
rashad vaughn (still 20 years old) at #17
thon maker at #10
brogdon at #36

a couple super high ceiling guys, and a 4 year guy. maybe thats the ticket for smaller markets, swing for the fences in the 1st, try to find 4 year contributors in the 2nd.

 

[Minstrel]

Milwaukee's done pretty well. It did take Antetokounmpo blowing up beyond, I'd guess, anyone's upside expectations. That's not to say he wasn't a good prospect, but a Magic Johnson/Scottie Pippen hybrid is a bit extreme.

That said, every great core requires some good fortune, generally. Scottie Pippen himself blew past initial expectations.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The Blazers team I fell in love with was FULL of guys who exceeded expectations: Porter - Wisconsin Stevens Point. Kersey - Longwood. Duckworth - second rounder. Cliff Robinson - second rounder. Even Clyde fell to #13, I believe.

 

[dviss1]

We did that once, successfully: Nicolas Batum.

In 1984 Jerome Kersey was the 46th pick in the 2nd round.

In 1985 Terry Porter was the 24th pick in the 1st round.

 

[dviss1]

He's their secret "Makes other players look much better" scout.

Timmy made Ginobili and Parker future HOFers?

Um.... No...

 

[Minstrel]

In 1984 Jerome Kersey was the 46th pick in the 2nd round.

In 1985 Terry Porter was the 24th pick in the 1st round.

I was saying we once successfully drafted a guy the current Spurs brain trust wanted, since there was a lot of scuttlebutt at the time that the Spurs were trying to get Batum to drop to them, putting out rumors of a heart condition, etc.

 

[BonesJones]

I've always said that 3-and-D guys get drafted wayyyy too low. Especially the ones that stay in college for 4 years. This years example: Malcolm Brogdon.

 

[BonesJones]

Take off the Lottery picks off of the Blazers and see how they do. Wait....

Lillard #6
Aminu #8
Vonleh #9
McCollum #10
Leonard #11
Davis #13

Before someone points out that the Blazers didn't draft all of these players, of course they didn't. But drafting well (especially when you are a small market team) is paramount. Portland just hasn't hit on some of the diamonds in the rough like Serge Ibaka, George Hill, DeAndre Jordon, Goran Dragic, Jrue Holida, Darren Collison, Jeff Teague, Taj Gibson, DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Beverly, Danny Green, Eric Bledsoe, Avery Bradley, Trevor Booker, Hassan Whiteside, Kawhi Leonard, Tobias Harris, Kenneth Farid, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Draymond Green, Giannis Antetok0unmpo, Andre Roberson, Rudy Gobert, Jusef Nurkic, Rodney Hood, Clint Capela, Kyle Anderson, Richaun Holmes, Dejounte Murray, and Malcolm Brogdon.

All of those players were drafted in the Lottery since the 2008 Draft. There is everything from NBA Finals MVP's to rookie starters in there but the thing they have in common is they have all contributed as at least a very solid rotation player to their teams that makes supports the stars.

Portland has hit on a few but of the following, only drafted Mills, Barton and Crabbe of which they only have Crabbe who they didn't trade away. They've picked up some other peoples 'diamond in the rough' picks and of those, Plumlee and Harkless have been solid contributors.

Patty Mills - let go
Maurice Harkless - acquired for cheap
Will Barton - traded away in what is considered by most to be a very bad trade in eventuality
Mason Plumlee - acquired for defensive wing Hollis-Jefferson
Allen Crabbe - acquired for 2 2nd round Draft picks. Now making more than many starters.
Shabazz Napier - picked up off the Magic scrap heap.

The thing is, Portland's gotten great value on their picks under Olshey. Just because some were lottery and some aren't here doesn't mean that we didn't find some sort of diamonds in the rough.

Homeruns:
6th Lillard (Top 2 Player in his draft)
10th McCollum (Top 3 Player in his draft)
55th or Lower Pick - Traded for Moe Harkless

Doubles:
23rd Pick - Traded for Mason Plumlee
31st Crabbe (Top 10 Player in his draft)

Singles:
40th Barton (Borderline Top 10 in his draft)
47th Layman (Should be top 30 in his draft)

Strikeouts:
11th Leonard (Taken over Fournier, Crowder, Draymond, Middleton, etc)
20th Beasley (That's who DEN drafted with the pick they got for Afflalo)
The 2nd Rounders traded for Thomas Robinson (Good risk to take, didn't pan out)

 

[selloutking]

I've always said that 3-and-D guys get drafted wayyyy too low. Especially the ones that stay in college for 4 years. This years example: Malcolm Brogdon.

which is odd fer sure, because you always hear about teams that are looking for that 3 and D guy

 

[handiman]

which is odd fer sure, because you always hear about teams that are looking for that 3 and D guy

It's the toughest position to project. The great college shooters often don't pan out in the NBA, and the NBA 3-and-D guys tend to be unheralded college players. I guess you could scout on the basis of an underwhelming college career, but then half of S2 would be hiring agents.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Bump

 

[hoopsjock]

Several people have made the point that Portland, like Utah, Milwaukee, OKC et al. is unlikely to attract big free agents, so we need to get better at drafting. The good news is, even if we creep into the playoffs we can still find good players. Now, of course drafting is a crapshoot. But some teams are better than others, and it seems to me that in this age of "big data" a rich tech-savvy owner like Allen could work out who in the other organization is finding bargains and throw money at hiring them. In other words, why not build the best scouting system in pro sports? Here are the best non-lottery players since 2010 that were available (with the last couple of years it's too soon to tell, really). Looking at this, I'd say Utah is the team to raid for scouts.

2010
18 Oklahoma City Thunder Eric Bledsoe G, 6-1, 190 Kentucky (actually an Olshey pick!)
19 Boston Celtics Avery Bradley G, 6-3, 180 Texas
20 San Antonio Spurs James Anderson G, 6-6, 195 Oklahoma State
23 Minnesota Timberwolves Trevor Booker F, 6-7, 240 Clemson
33 Sacramento Kings Hassan Whiteside C, 7-0, 235 Marshall
35 Washington Wizards Nemanja Bjelica F, 6-10, 223 Serbia (Red Star Serbia)

2011
17. Knicks Iman Shumpert PG
19. Bobcats Tobias Harris PF
22. Nuggets Kenneth Faried PF
23. Rockets Nikola Mirotic SF
24. Thunder Reggie Jackson PG
29. Spurs Cory Joseph PG
30. Bulls Jimmy Butler SF
31. Heat Bojan Bogdanovic SF
38. Rockets Chandler Parsons SF
40. Bucks Jon Leuer PF
55. Celtics E'Twaun Moore SG
60. Kings Isaiah Thomas PG

2012
17. Mavericks Tyler Zeller C
18. Rockets Terrence Jones PF
20. Nuggets Evan Fournier SG
21. Celtics Jared Sullinger PF
30. Warriors Festus Ezeli C
34. Cavaliers Jae Crowder SF
35. Warriors Draymond Green SF
39. Pistons Khris Middleton SF
40. Trail Blazers Will Barton SG
49. Magic Kyle O'Quinn C

2013
17. Hawks Dennis Schroeder PG
21. Jazz Gorgui Dieng C
22. Nets Mason Plumlee C
26. Timberwolves Andre Roberson SF
27. Nuggets Rudy Gobert C
31. Cavaliers Allen Crabbe SG
32. Thunder Alex Abrines SG
39. Trail Blazers Jeff Withey C
14. Mavericks Mike Muscala PF
55. Grizzlies Joffrey Lauvergne PF

2014
19. Bulls Gary Harris SG
23. Jazz Rodney Hood SG
25. Rockets Clint Capela PF
30. Spurs Kyle Anderson PF
32. 76ers K.J. McDaniels SF
41. Nuggets Nikola Jokic PF
45. Hornets Dwight Powell PF

2015
21. Mavericks Justin Anderson SF
22. Bulls Bobby Portis PF
23. Trail Blazers Rondae Hollis-Jefferson SF
27. Lakers Larry Nance Jr. PF
32. Rockets Montrezl Harrell PF
37. 76ers Richaun Holmes PF
40. Heat Josh Richardson SG
46. Bucks Norman Powell SG

2016
27 Toronto Pascal Siakam (PF) New Mexico St
36 Milwaukee Malcolm Brogdon (SG) Virginia

The 15th pick is also non-lottery so guys like Kawhi, Greek Freak, and Nurk should be on the list.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

No you can't. You can build a decent team, that will be the 4-5 seed each year, but never have a realistic shot at a title

Raptors, 2019.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

I don't think there was a single lottery pick on the 2019 NBA Champion Toronto Raptors. Am I right?

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Raptors, 2019.

We posted at the same time.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Raptors, 2019.

Congrats, you found ONE example. ONE that traded their best player, a lottery pick, for arguably the best 2 way player in the league.

LOL, I stand corrected

 

[Mediocre Man]

I don't think there was a single lottery pick on the 2019 NBA Champion Toronto Raptors. Am I right?

You are not

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Congrats, you found ONE example. ONE that traded their best player, a lottery pick, for arguably the best 2 way player in the league.

LOL, I stand corrected

Gracious, as always.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Further note: even if there wasn't an ACTUAL example of a team that did this that wouldn't undermine the point of the thread, because it says that it's POSSIBLE (like: it's POSSIBLE for LeBron James to pass Derek Fisher for most playoffs games played). That is, there are players available after the lottery in almost every draft that, if you combined them, would make a championship caliber team. Players like Jokic, Gobert, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Siakam et. al. Of course, it would be hard for a team to TRY to do it, because you have to actively avoid trading for players picked in the lottery. But my point was about how a team can both stay good and get great talent in the draft (like the Spurs did and the Nuggets are doing now).

 

[Orion Bailey]

Further note: even if there wasn't an ACTUAL example of a team that did this that wouldn't undermine the point of the thread, because it says that it's POSSIBLE (like: it's POSSIBLE for LeBron James to pass Derek Fisher for most playoffs games played). That is, there are players available after the lottery in almost every draft that, if you combined them, would make a championship caliber team. Players like Jokic, Gobert, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler, Siakam et. al. Of course, it would be hard for a team to TRY to do it, because you have to actively avoid trading for players picked in the lottery. But my point was about how a team can both stay good and get great talent in the draft (like the Spurs did and the Nuggets are doing now).

I get the premise, But I think there is one stat that should be valuated prior to assuming this could be possible.

What is the percentage of lottery picks that bust vs become a star? What is the percent of second rounders busting vs being a star?

Meaning., I think talent scouts would miss alot more in actively trying to find a star outside of the lottery than they would in the lottery.

I get your premise, but skimming the surface, I don't think its realistic at all because of the percentage drop off of potential stardom of nonlottery picks.


Another way to analyze would be to take the total number of lottery picks for say the last ten years and the percent of them that became a star. Now do the same for non lottery picks. Without knowing, Im pretty sure the percentage of nonlottery pick stars is going to be extremely low. And you would need to nail almost all of them to make this come to fruition.

Just not possible in my opinion.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Just not possible in my opinion.

How can it be that something that's not possible has actually happened?

 

[Orion Bailey]

How can it be that something that's not possible has actually happened?

Lol. I dunno. Ask a hurt KD or a hurt Klay Thompson how they feel about last years finals.

Also, Thy drafted a lottery pick and traded for one of the best two way players ONLY because the two way player wanted out and the trading team wanted him in a different conference.

Yes luck can make most things happen, but to actively try to make it happen is all but impossible in my opinion. I mean if it were that easy, teams would bypass the lottery players and just pick 2nd rounders out of the gate.


Id like to see your thoughts about the percentage questions I had regarding lottery busts vs nonlottery busts.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Lol. I dunno. Ask a hurt KD or a hurt Klay Thompson how they feel about last years finals.

Also, Thy drafted a lottery pick and traded for one of the best two way players ONLY because the two way player wanted out and the trading team wanted him in a different conference.

Yes luck can make most things happen, but to actively try to make it happen is all but impossible in my opinion. I mean if it were that easy, teams would bypass the lottery players and just pick 2nd rounders out of the gate.

Note title: "You can build a great team with non-lottery picks". Toronto was a great (not just great: title-winning) team composed of non-lottery picks.

Id like to see your thoughts about the percentage questions I had regarding lottery busts vs nonlottery busts.

Well, it would be a pretty savage indictment of the entire industry of scouting if lottery picks weren't a fuck of a lot more likely to be better than non-lottery picks.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

OF COURSE IT'S UNLIKELY! But the number of really really good players available outside the lottery EVEN IN THIS DAY AND AGE is remarkable.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Note title: "You can build a great team with non-lottery picks". Toronto was a great (not just great: title-winning) team composed of non-lottery picks.



Well, it would be a pretty savage indictment of the entire industry of scouting if lottery picks weren't a fuck of a lot more likely to be better than non-lottery picks.

Ah I mixed up great team with championship team.

NO doubt a great team can be had. But the Can is very low percentage in my opinion.

 

[handiman]

Was Toronto truly built without lottery picks? That's not exactly the same as saying they had no lottery picks on the roster when they won it... Gasol was traded for a lottery pick (Gasol) albeit by a different team, Kawhi was traded for a lottery pick (Derozan), and probably others fit the bill. They needed lottery picks as assets to build the roster.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Was Toronto truly built without lottery picks? That's not exactly the same as saying they had no lottery picks on the roster when they won it... Gasol was traded for a lottery pick (Gasol) albeit by a different team, Kawhi was traded for a lottery pick (Derozan), and probably others fit the bill. They needed lottery picks as assets to build the roster.

If that's the benchmark, I don't think it's even possible to build an NBA team without having lottery picks involved in some way, shape, or form.

I think it's pretty clear that the premise of this thread is regarding a team's own lottery picks being significant contributors to that team's greatness.

BTW, I see the Bucks were mentioned a few years ago in this thread, but they most definitely fit the bill now. They're clearly a great team, and they haven't received significant contribution from a lotto pick since...Brandon Jennings?