Zach Collins: 17-18 season postmortem

[JDC]

Zach's going to be fine. Too smart, hard working and skilled not to improve.

Already impacts the game defensively and will do so even more with the added strength and being able to play more center w/o Ed Davis around where we'll be able to better leverage his excellent pnr and paint defense. He's too good in both areas to be stuck chasing around stretch 4's like we saw much of last year.

I think the LMA comparison people have liked to make is what's causing lot of the disappointment. Zach never had that kind of upside on offense, especially from a usage perspective. Doesn't have the length and high release that allowed LMA to get his game off against virtually any match up.

Zach's is much more of a support piece offensively. If his face up game develops, he may have 3rd option upside.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Zach's going to be fine. Too smart, hard working and skilled not to improve.

Already impacts the game defensively and will do so even more with the added strength and being able to play more center w/o Ed Davis around where we'll be able to better leverage his excellent pnr and paint defense. He's too good in both areas to be stuck chasing around stretch 4's like we saw much of last year.

I think the LMA comparison people have liked to make is what's causing lot of the disappointment. Zach never had that kind of upside on offense, especially from a usage perspective. Doesn't have the length and high release that allowed LMA to get his game off against virtually any match up.

Zach's is much more of a support piece offensively. If his face up game develops, he may have 3rd option upside.

good post. Just to add a quick addendum:
Last year was the first year he played on the perimeter, and he admitted to being uncomfortable there. This year he's playing down low. This should help him.

 

[e_blazer]

Because the Blazers played him out of position at PF (and because his frame hadn’t filled out to allow him to play center anyway) we really don’t know much about what Zach is going to ultimately do in his career. IMO, his stats from last year mean virtually nothing. He’d played zero minutes at PF and never on the perimeter before last season. Olshey has restructured the roster by not re-signing Ed to force a change in Zach’s usage by Stotts. Olshey has a lot riding on Zach panning out since he picked him and sold him as a future franchise player. I haven’t seen enough to convince me yet that he can be that impactful of a player, but I would love to be proven wrong.

 

[Strenuus]

Because the Blazers played him out of position at PF (and because his frame hadn’t filled out to allow him to play center anyway) we really don’t know much about what Zach is going to ultimately do in his career. IMO, his stats from last year mean virtually nothing. He’d played zero minutes at PF and never on the perimeter before last season. Olshey has restructured the roster by not re-signing Ed to force a change in Zach’s usage by Stotts. Olshey has a lot riding on Zach panning out since he picked him and sold him as a future franchise player. I haven’t seen enough to convince me yet that he can be that impactful of a player, but I would love to be proven wrong.

I dont think hes a franchise player, but hes a rotation guy in my mind. Kinda like Nurk.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Analyzing the stats in a year when most people didn't even think he'd step foot on the court seems a bit silly.

I need to do some research on this but it’s bugging me so I’m going to make a post and get called out because I’m an idiot!

Doesn’t it scare you a bit when guys get drafted and the mantra is wel this is a pick for 3 or 4 years from now? How many of those guys become stars? I’m sure there’s examples but it seems like after a year or two in the NBA you kind of know if a guy can play or not. Sometimes a guy has a really good player in front of him and doesn’t get minutes like CJ when Wes was here.
Almost all really good to great NBA players you knew pretty quick they were special. Sure Zach was 19 but lots of 19 year olds have come into the league and played better.
The thing is with Zach sure there were moments s here and there but he really has a lot of growth to do just to become a pretty good back up. I still feel after trading up to the 10th spot they could’ve got a better player , I know hindsight isn’t fair so I won’t name names.

 

[RR7]

I need to do some research on this but it’s bugging me so I’m going to make a post and get called out because I’m an idiot!

Doesn’t it scare you a bit when guys get drafted and the mantra is wel this is a pick for 3 or 4 years from now? How many of those guys become stars? I’m sure there’s examples but it seems like after a year or two in the NBA you kind of know if a guy can play or not. Sometimes a guy has a really good player in front of him and doesn’t get minutes like CJ when Wes was here.
Almost all really good to great NBA players you knew pretty quick they were special. Sure Zach was 19 but lots of 19 year olds have come into the league and played better.
The thing is with Zach sure there were moments s here and there but he really has a lot of growth to do just to become a pretty good back up. I still feel after trading up to the 10th spot they could’ve got a better player , I know hindsight isn’t fair so I won’t name names.

While I love Zach, and am a big believer in him, I'll say I had this exact same thought earlier, wondering how many guys break out 2,3,4 years after being drafted, versus an almost immediate, or after 1 year breakout.
But, regardless of that, still love Zach.

 

[BigGameDamian]

Zach's going to be fine. Too smart, hard working and skilled not to improve.

Already impacts the game defensively and will do so even more with the added strength and being able to play more center w/o Ed Davis around where we'll be able to better leverage his excellent pnr and paint defense. He's too good in both areas to be stuck chasing around stretch 4's like we saw much of last year.

I think the LMA comparison people have liked to make is what's causing lot of the disappointment. Zach never had that kind of upside on offense, especially from a usage perspective. Doesn't have the length and high release that allowed LMA to get his game off against virtually any match up.

Zach's is much more of a support piece offensively. If his face up game develops, he may have 3rd option upside.

Is he untouchable though?

 

[hoopsjock]

I need to do some research on this but it’s bugging me so I’m going to make a post and get called out because I’m an idiot!

Doesn’t it scare you a bit when guys get drafted and the mantra is wel this is a pick for 3 or 4 years from now? How many of those guys become stars? I’m sure there’s examples but it seems like after a year or two in the NBA you kind of know if a guy can play or not. Sometimes a guy has a really good player in front of him and doesn’t get minutes like CJ when Wes was here.
Almost all really good to great NBA players you knew pretty quick they were special. Sure Zach was 19 but lots of 19 year olds have come into the league and played better.
The thing is with Zach sure there were moments s here and there but he really has a lot of growth to do just to become a pretty good back up. I still feel after trading up to the 10th spot they could’ve got a better player , I know hindsight isn’t fair so I won’t name names.

Well it used to be all the time when high school kids were drafted. I've stated this numerous times, but I was fucking pissed off and fuming that we traded up for Collins. I wanted Mitchell so badly. I've completely come around on Collins though.

The patience thing with me is almost purely due to his body. If he puts on weight with his deceptive quickness and tough attitude I think he can be special. What won me over is his defensive instincts. When I watch really good defensive teams like GS was with a healthy Bogut and Draymond Green, it's like they're playing a different game. They know when to help or rotate. They know when to stay on their man and they know when to go straight up and when to go for a block. It takes so much pressure off the perimeter defenders when they know the guys behind them are always going to be in the right position. These are the types of defensive details I see with Zach and I think he'll get better as he gets more respect from the refs and develops a reputation so he doesn't get in foul trouble.

As for offense, there isn't much I don't like either other than the fact he just isn't making shots consistently enough. Although he shot just 31% from 3, I definitely think he can get that closer to 40% because his form is decent and I believe he will put in the necessary time to add that to his game. He doesn't do it often but there were a couple times last year that I recall him getting the ball outside the 3 point line and putting the ball on the floor to get to the hoop for a lay-in. He's got good post up moves that will get better as he gets stronger. His little "Dirk" fade away has the potential to be money. Once again he shot it horribly last year but I think he'll figure it out. I also likes that he takes care of the ball and is a good passer too.

He does need to use his toughness to become a more ferocious rebounder. He needs to be so much better than he's shown so far but the glimpses he's shown are intriguing.

 

[mook]

He's been unarguably the best defender on the court in two summer league games, fwiw.

The more I watch him, the more he reminds me of Theo Ratliff, at least in terms of impact on the game. He's just really, really good at blocking and altering shots near the rim. It's his one bankable skill. He doesn't give you great rebounding or scoring or passing or screens or...pretty much anything else at this point. He's also pretty good at bothering perimeter shots on runouts I guess.

It just so happens his one skill is actually a really great complement to our star guards.

Now that Ed Davis is gone, I'd really like to see him paired up with Nurk more. I think having both of them in there could really shut down the paint and allow our guards to go over every screen. Give teams even more long 2s and see what happens.

Obviously, we drafted the wrong guy. But it's not a total disaster. He's got one very useful skill, and hopefully it'll be something he can use to leverage himself into more minutes and hopefully develop other skills.

 

[PHXBlazer1]

His defensive instincts are on point and he definitely understands the principle of verticality. If his offensive game develops he'll be a very good player.

 

[Lanny]

I was and am a big Zach supporter. The acumen and the skills are awesome.

But let's put aside my "feelings" and look at the stats - he mostly sucked.
View attachment 21501
My thinking during the season was that, sure his pre all-star numbers sucked, but he was actually very good post all-star. I was right....ish. Before looking at the numbers more closely, here are the NBA league averages:
View attachment 21502

Notes: He average 15.2 mpg pre and 17.0 post - similar enough to compare numbers head to head.
1) FG%
pre: .382
post: .422
league average: .460

So, unacceptable to mediocre. A lot of his shots were 3s post, so it would be better to compare EFG%.

2) 3FG%
pre: .317
post: .300
league average: .362

Actually got worse.

3) FT%
pre: .560
post: .765
league average: .767

Improved to league average, which is great for a big man. OTOH, sample size is pretty small - he didn't get to the line very often (13-17 post).

4) PER:
Total for year: 7.56. Basically tied with Biggie for 2nd worst on the team (yes, definitely lower than Pat):
View attachment 21503

5) Other
His rebounding, assists, and blocks were about the same post as pre. Fewer steals and more turnovers, but fewer fouls. More points, but more shots to get them.

Bottom Line:
His 2FG% and FT% improved post ASG, but he was mostly a big bag of meh stats-wise. Put another way, other teams fanbases are probably very unexcited by Zach, and would consider him a throw-in in a trade.

And then there's the eye test which he passes with flying colors.

 

[jonnyboy]

We should just cut everyone who doesn't have starter-level production right off the bat. Remember how CJ was instantly productive the second he put on a Blazers jersey?

C'mon people, were not goldfish. Get an attention span and have a little patience.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

We should just cut everyone who doesn't have starter-level production right off the bat. Remember how CJ was instantly productive the second he put on a Blazers jersey?

C'mon people, were not goldfish. Get an attention span and have a little patience.

It’s not about patience, I just wonder how often projects ever end up being really good.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

It’s not about patience, I just wonder how often projects ever end up being really good.

He, Aminu, and Nurk are our top 3 defensive big men. He can do things on the defensive end the other 2 can't - today, now.
#notaproject

The point of the thread is that I'd like to see what my eyes see in the boxscore.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

He, Aminu, and Nurk are our top 3 defensive big men. He can do things on the defensive end the other 2 can't - today, now.
#notaproject

The point of the thread is that I'd like to see what my eyes see in the boxscore.

Ok, well the other two bigs are Meyers Leonard and Swannigan who are basically 0 on defense...

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Ok, well the other two bigs are Meyers Leonard and Swannigan who are basically 0 on defense...

which is why they're not seeing minutes.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

which is why they're not seeing minutes.

I understand and I’m not saying Collins won’t ever be any good. He has moments where he passes my “eye test”, I’m not really sold on him as much as others seem to be I hope he proves me wrong though.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I understand and I’m not saying Collins won’t ever be any good. He has moments where he passes me “eye test”, I’m not really sold on him as much as others seem to be I hope he proves me wrong though.

Fair Enough.

 

[James lamphear]

The problem with evaluating a player most people look at the offensive first. What kind of impact can he do in that area. Instead looking at individual how he going help the team win. Zach impact right now is on the defensive side of the ball and that's how he going to help us win games. Even if he becomes average offensive player he still has a skill that can change the game. First two summer league games he has impacted the game on the way he been defending the rim.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

The problem with evaluating a player most people look at the offensive first. What kind of impact can he do in that area. Instead looking at individual how he going help the team win. Zach impact right now is on the defensive side of the ball and that's how goi

I love good defense I really do, but the NBA if you can’t score you have an upward battle to climb. We just saw it with Ed, he does so much well but because he can’t score his worth in the NBA is limited, it sucks but that’s the way it is.

I think Zach is a good smart defender especially team defense I’m not sure how good of a 1v1 defender he is. Like I said I see the potential, I just think he’s got a lot of work to do, to even be a good role player. He can get there, but if he gets there we’ll we’ll see.

 

[James lamphear]

I love good defense I really do, but the NBA if you can’t score you have an upward battle to climb. We just saw it with Ed, he does so much well but because he can’t score his worth in the NBA is limited, it sucks but that’s the way it is.


I think Zach is a good smart defender especially team defense I’m not sure how good of a 1v1 defender he is. Like I said I see the potential, I just think he’s got a lot of work to do, to even be a good role player. He can get there, but if he gets there we’ll we’ll see.

Zach actually is pretty good 1v1 defender and yes you need for his offensive to come around but with this team how it is made up he will always be 4 or 5 option on this team. So the reason he stay on the court last year was due to his defense not his offensive. It also looks like he even better this year by protecting the rim with his added muscle.

 

[TorturedBlazerFan]

Zach actually is pretty good 1v1 defender and yes you need for his offensive to come around but with this team how it is made up he will always be 4 or 5 option on this team. So the reason he stay on the court last year was due to his defense not his offensive. It also looks like he even better this year by protecting the rim with his added muscle.

Yeah I know, he got minutes mainly for his D. He doesn’t look all that stronger to me. I wonder how much bias against the pick in the 1st place plays into it? I don’t know... I’m actually more hyped about Baldwin, but who knows that’s why they play the games.

 

[Propagandist]

We should just cut everyone who doesn't have starter-level production right off the bat. Remember how CJ was instantly productive the second he put on a Blazers jersey?

C'mon people, were not goldfish. Get an attention span and have a little patience.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/sc...-memories-last-for-months-say-scientists.html

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The problem with evaluating a player most people look at the offensive first. What kind of impact can he do in that area. Instead looking at individual how he going help the team win. Zach impact right now is on the defensive side of the ball and that's how he going to help us win games. Even if he becomes average offensive player he still has a skill that can change the game. First two summer league games he has impacted the game on the way he been defending the rim.

Nice post.
In 2 SL games, the Collins/Baldwin Summer Blazers are holding opponents to 59/164 = 36% shooting.
Collins is 2nd in SL in blocks.

 

[BBert]

Zach has great offensive footwork around the basket. There is no other front court player on the team who is even close. His face up shooting form looks good. Zach will be fine.