Zach Collins in January

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The scary thing with Collins is, at each level he starts slow and gradually erupts. He was a late bloomer in HS and a non-starter in college, but still managed to become the star of the team and then some. This year, many wrote him off as the wrong lottery pick between our two PF's. He just keeps getting better, and we've literally yet to see how good he can become at any level of competition.

I think it was before the draft but possibly after, I said he'd be in the running for player of the year if he stayed at Gonzaga for soph season. Imagine how dominant he'd be looking right now against that level of competition, picking up where he left off instead of taking a step back while getting acclimated to the next level.
 
I want to believe in Collins.

Last night before the game I ran comparisons of Jermaine O'Neal, both Gasols, Nowitzki, Z-bo, Aldridge, Porzingis, Bosh,Nurkic, Jokic, AK47 and a couple others, all in their first years. Not a single one of them except Draymond Green (7.1) had a PER below 11.0 as a rookie. And Draymond was being used as a SF back then. Even Nick Collison started out his career at 15.0. Meyers Leonard had a rookie year with a PER of 12.1. Zach Collins currently sits at 8.5 after 500 minutes of actual NBA playing time. :(

I pretty much gave up hope after that. And then I saw him play last night, and I read the numbers about his January shooting.

It is nice to see his threes falling, and if they continue to I can definitely see him getting more minutes and producing more, lifting him up. But I don't know, man. If three of his three point attempts in January don't go in, he's having a 32% month. Such a small sample size.

He's already an above-average NBA defender, which is a huge plus as a 7 footer and will keep him in the league as long as he's mobile. So I'm not worried about him being a total bust--for a 10th pick it's perfectly acceptable to get a decent bench player. But I'm not nearly as optimistic as I was at the start of the season. I'm kind of foreseeing more of an Ed Davis-type of career.
 
mook said:
I want to believe in Collins.

Last night before the game I ran comparisons of Jermaine O'Neal, both Gasols, Nowitzki, Z-bo, Aldridge, Porzingis, Bosh,Nurkic, Jokic, AK47 and a couple others, all in their first years. Not a single one of them except Draymond Green (7.1) had a PER below 11.0 as a rookie. And Draymond was being used as a SF back then. Even Nick Collison started out his career at 15.0. Meyers Leonard had a rookie year with a PER of 12.1. Zach Collins currently sits at 8.5 after 500 minutes of actual NBA playing time. :(

I pretty much gave up hope after that. And then I saw him play last night, and I read the numbers about his January shooting.

It is nice to see his threes falling, and if they continue to I can definitely see him getting more minutes and producing more, lifting him up. But I don't know, man. If three of his three point attempts in January don't go in, he's having a 32% month. Such a small sample size.

He's already an above-average NBA defender, which is a huge plus as a 7 footer and will keep him in the league as long as he's mobile. So I'm not worried about him being a total bust--for a 10th pick it's perfectly acceptable to get a decent bench player. But I'm not nearly as optimistic as I was at the start of the season. I'm kind of foreseeing more of an Ed Davis-type of career.
Click to expand...

Ed Davis:
Career Minutes = 10,954
Made 3-Pointers = 0

Zach Collins:
Career Minutes = 496
Made 3-Pointers = 17

Ed Davis:
Rookie PER = 15.8
Current PER = 15.9 (8th NBA Season)

In his 8th season, Ed Davis is the exact same player he was as a rookie. His game hasn't grown. In fact, it's shrunk as he has focused on what he does best.

A little over a month ago, Zach Collins had a negative PER. He's now at 8.5. His PER is currently going up every game he plays. In his very brief career, his trajectory is very, very different than Ed Davis. Don't get me wrong, I love Ed, but Collins has barely scratched the surface of his potential.

Several of the players you compared him to were much older and had much more experience as rookies. The Gasols had a lot of international experience and Marc was 24 as a rookie. Nick Collison was a 24-year old rookie who had been a 4-year starter at a major Division 1 powerhouse. Draymond played 4 years at Michigan State. Dirk, Porzingis, Kirilenko, Nurkic, and Jokic came up through a different system where they were playing against better competition at an earlier age.

You're comparing a very young, very raw Zach Collins, who is literally getting better by the day to several future Hall of Famers, some of the greatest European players ever and guys who have multiple all star appearances, and you're basing it on a stat (PER) that largely ignores his biggest strength (defense). Even still, at his current rate of improvement, his PER will be well into double digits, and quite similar to several of the players you mentioned, by the end of his rookie year.

Your conclusion is premature.

BNM
 
Boob-No-More said:
Ed Davis:
Career Minutes = 10,954
Made 3-Pointers = 0

Zach Collins:
Career Minutes = 496
Made 3-Pointers = 17

Ed Davis:
Rookie PER = 15.8
Current PER = 15.9 (8th NBA Season)

In his 8th season, Ed Davis is the exact same player he was as a rookie. His game hasn't grown. In fact, it's shrunk as he has focused on what he does best.

A little over a month ago, Zach Collins had a negative PER. He's now at 8.5. His PER is currently going up every game he plays. In his very brief career, his trajectory is very, very different than Ed Davis. Don't get me wrong, I love Ed, but Collins has barely scratched the surface of his potential.

Several of the players you compared him to were much older and had much more experience as rookies. The Gasols had a lot of international experience and Marc was 24 as a rookie. Nick Collison was a 24-year old rookie who had been a 4-year starter at a major Division 1 powerhouse. Draymond played 4 years at Michigan State. Dirk, Porzingis, Kirilenko, Nurkic, and Jokic came up through a different system where they were playing against better competition at an earlier age.

You're comparing a very young, very raw Zach Collins, who is literally getting better by the day to several future Hall of Famers, some of the greatest European players ever and guys who have multiple all star appearances, and you're basing it on a stat (PER) that largely ignores his biggest strength (defense). Even still, at his current rate of improvement, his PER will be well into double digits, and quite similar to several of the players you mentioned, by the end of his rookie year.

Your conclusion is premature.

BNM
Click to expand...
This post is not only accurate, it's Beautiful!

Don't get me wrong, Zach still has some kinks to work out. He's not getting to the line often enough. His assist to turnover ratio is just under 1. I'm not sure his rebounding rate is very high.

But, he still sees his job as "setting picks" (his words) for Dame and CJ. He's not trying to make stuff happen for himself, he's trying to help the team win.

Here's Zach calling for the ball from CJ (good sign), then handing off to Lillard while setting a screen where he just erases Matthews:
 
Wizard Mentor said:
This post is not only accurate, it's Beautiful!

Don't get me wrong, Zach still has some kinks to work out. He's not getting to the line often enough. His assist to turnover ratio is just under 1. I'm not sure his rebounding rate is very high.

But, he still sees his job as "setting picks" (his words) for Dame and CJ. He's not trying to make stuff happen for himself, he's trying to help the team win.

Here's Zach calling for the ball from CJ (good sign), then handing off to Lillard while setting a screen where he just erases Matthews:
Click to expand...


I remember that specific play. It was just one of several good screens he set last night.

BNM
 
Wizard Mentor said:
This post is not only accurate, it's Beautiful!

Don't get me wrong, Zach still has some kinks to work out. He's not getting to the line often enough. His assist to turnover ratio is just under 1. I'm not sure his rebounding rate is very high.

But, he still sees his job as "setting picks" (his words) for Dame and CJ. He's not trying to make stuff happen for himself, he's trying to help the team win.

Here's Zach calling for the ball from CJ (good sign), then handing off to Lillard while setting a screen where he just erases Matthews:
Click to expand...


I remember this ! When I saw Zach clap his hand (at CJ !) all like "Give me that fucking ball!" I was like damn okay Zach !
 
mook said:
But I'm not nearly as optimistic as I was at the start of the season. I'm kind of foreseeing more of an Ed Davis-type of career.
Click to expand...

He just turned 20 and is in his rookie season. We are all just guessing at this point on how he will turn out. But Ed Davis? I love Ed but he can't shoot past 10 feet.
 
riverman said:
he doesn't need to....out there he sets great screens
Click to expand...

That is true and that is fine, I love Ed. But the point was Zach can shoot it from there if needed. Would you not agree Zach has a higher ceiling? Two different types of players.
 
Ed's career is not over....he's not 35...he's a year older than Dame...he's better this season than he's ever looked so I don't buy this idea that he's not ever changing.....he's improved his free throws and his chip shots all season...Zach is great....rookie great....I like them on the court together but they are not comparable as to skill sets....nor need they be
 
riverman said:
Ed's career is not over....he's not 35...he's a year older than Dame...he's better this season than he's ever looked so I don't buy this idea that he's not ever changing.....he's improved his free throws and his chip shots all season...Zach is great....rookie great....I like them on the court together but they are not comparable as to skill sets....nor need they be
Click to expand...

Davis is back to being the player he was two seasons ago. That's not evolution of his game, it's returning successfully from injury.
 
handiman said:
Davis is back to being the player he was two seasons ago. That's not evolution of his game, it's returning successfully from injury.
Click to expand...
he's better....his free throw work offseason is paying off...he's more explosive...he put on muscle..I loved his game two years ago but he's way better to me now...he's having a career year.
 
riverman said:
he's better....his free throw work offseason is paying off...he's more explosive...he put on muscle..I loved his game two years ago but he's way better to me now...he's having a career year.
Click to expand...

KingSpeed said:
He's improved free throw shooting
Click to expand...

If improved FT shooting is the only measurable stat anyone can point to, then you have to take into account that he's slightly worse than his second and third years in the league. A 55-65% shooter is going to have fluctuations.

He's the same player, and that's not a bad thing. He's one of the last guys I'd want to see leave the team.
 
handiman said:
He's one of the last guys I'd want to see leave the team.
Click to expand...

I agree. He provides energy and toughness off the bench...every game. We can not lose him this summer. And we know Dame loves this guy too.

Collins on the other hand has the potential to be a long time starter IMO because of his versatility. He can play next to either type of big because he can defend the rim and the perimeter and he can also score out on the perimeter. I am going to assume he will also be a solid scorer in the post as well....by next year.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
He just turned 20 and is in his rookie season. We are all just guessing at this point on how he will turn out. But Ed Davis? I love Ed but he can't shoot past 10 feet.
Click to expand...

Nice bench big man. Could be a starter on a mediocre team, but isn't contending-caliber starter.

I had extremely high hopes for entering the year. They've pretty much fallen off a cliff.
 
mook said:
Nice bench big man. Could be a starter on a mediocre team, but isn't contending-caliber starter.

I had extremely high hopes for entering the year. They've pretty much fallen off a cliff.
Click to expand...
Right now (at 20 years old) he's a nice bench big man. You don't think someone with his toolset will improve? Even if he put on 20lbs and didn't improve any skill, he'd still be a good starting big man.
 
Reep said:
Yeah, you really have to watch the games to see why he is getting minutes. What I see (and I'm not a super-analyst):

1) 3pt: He is not hesitating when he is open. If he is open and set, the shot is going up. Unlike Biebs who should shoot like that, but second-guesses himself and then ends up not shooting at all.
2) Spacing: he seems to really understand where to be for screens and then were to go to either spot up or run the play. This is true on both ends of the court.
3) Defense (obviously): He hasn't had as many highlight plays as I would expect, but his skill set is more subtle than that. Again, he seems to understand spacing really well for his age.

I still want him to channel into the next Laimbeer, but I think that will come as he fills out.
Click to expand...

I want to expand on the bolded part.

I agree, but after thinking about it. How often is he beat to the rim to then need to make a block at the rim. Ive seen him keep people in front of him and cause a loss of shot clock time and with team D, cause shot clock violations.
I honestly think he is so fleet of foot and agile, that we wont see him get beat to have to make blocks at thew rim. Weak side help maybe but that's about it.

That play where he told CJ not to switch and he had the guard was amazing. He drove the guard back out to the three point line.
 
mook said:
Nice bench big man. Could be a starter on a mediocre team, but isn't contending-caliber starter.

I had extremely high hopes for entering the year. They've pretty much fallen off a cliff.
Click to expand...

Glad to see you've kept things in perspective.
 
My favorite part of Zach Collins is how many people keep wanting to write off his defensive stats... well he might have had the best defensive rating in college but.... well he might have had the best defensive rating in summer league but... well he might have the best defensive ratings of NBA rookies but...

If a guy keeps delivering at some point people need to check their buts and make sure it’s not really their butt the are speaking with.
 
Schilly said:
If a guy keeps delivering at some point people need to check their buts and make sure it’s not really their butt the are speaking with.
Click to expand...

Shouldn't be too hard for the Collins doubters, since their head is already up it.

BNM
 
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