Zach Collins' Present and Future Thoughts

[BBert]

LANNY!!!! How are you brother! It's good to see you round these parts!

@BBert is just using a bit of sarcasm methinks.

Hahaha. I'm glad your sarcasm meter is tuned in and turned on

Either that or you just never take me seriously in the first place

 

[BBert]

This whole notion that Zach is passive, is bullshit. Plain and simple.

He takes what the D gives him EVERY time. He does not force shots but he certainly doesn't hesitate to shoot them either.

As a matter of fact, he never hesitates on offense.

So I don't know what games y'all are watching but passive isn't an adjective I'd use to describe him at all.

My single most favoritist thing about Zach, is his demeanor when he gives someone a hard foul and they are lying on the floor. He doesn't give them a second look, doesn't help them up, just struts on by, slowly.

 

[BonesJones]

McCollum was a volume scorer in college. Him returning to form wasn't a personality change.

Ok, well lets use your logic against you. Lets compare Donovan Mitchell's (likely ROY) freshmen year compared to Zach Collins' freshman year.

PER 40 MIN
Mitchell - 12.9 FGA
Collins - 12.3 FGA

Collins would've likely had more FGA if he wasn't playing on the 2nd best team in the country.
And with all this "passiveness", Zach is attempting 10FGs Per 36, and that's with him playing a type of basketball he never has before (perimeter-oriented) and being a 20-year-old rookie.
---
Lets say with a few years under his belt, he gets more comfortable and attempts 13FGs Per 36. I think he could do so while shooting 55% from 2pt on nine 2s a game and 36% from 3pt on four 3s a game.
That's 4.95 / 9 from 2pt
that's 1.44 / 4 from 3pt
that's 6.39 /13 from the field
(49FG% / 36 3pt%)
Lets say he also gets 3FTs a game and makes 75%
That would be 16.5Pts Per 36 Min with him taking one more shot every 12 minutes than he does now.
---
You don't think he'll shoot 1 more shot every 12 minutes once he gets more comfortable?
And maybe he doesn't get that efficient, but even if he's close he's still giving a very good point production for a rim protector and would also space the floor. Lack of aggression won't ever be a problem. He's nothing like Batum mentally.

 

[BonesJones]

I like the kid...let him break a sweat and learn the games of his opponents...he has no history playing most of the guys he's thrown out against every night..he's a rookie big....he'll get stronger and the game will slow down....

And he's being used in a way he's never been used before! I think he's doing a fine job. He has great shooting form and should definitely turn into a good 3pt shooter. For someone that was never used as a shooter, to be a rookie rim-protecting big shooting 32% from 3pt is promising. Some people, however, will simply see that "32%" and assume he'll never be a good 3pt shooter (which fits the ridiculous narrative that he won't ever help offensively). He's also shown flashes of being able to put the ball on the floor and drive. This is something that will get much, much better when he gets more comfortable.

And rookie bigs take longer to develop even if they're used in the same way as the were in college as simply a rebounder, interior defender, and a finisher around the rim.

 

[BonesJones]

So in the college game they play like 25 games (already double that in the NBA) and I watched him in college too, I went to Gonzaga for Christ's sake I think I might know what I am talking about a little bit. I know you hold yourself in very high regard but je-sus. It is impossible for someone who knows and watches basketball and the Blazers to have a differing opinion than you right?

To get on to your ridiculous comparison. Yes, Deandre Jordan with shooting ability would be a foundational type of player. No, I don't think Collins is that player. Yes, I can confidently say he will not become prime Deandre Jordan with a jumper that much is pretty clear. (The fact that this is the best comp you can come up with for the kid doesn't make me think you actually have watched any of Collins college or pro but...) That is not to say he doesn't have a place in this league or on this team. He could one day be a solid 2-way starting caliber player on the same level as Jae Crowder or something (I know not the same position just an example of the tier of player he likely will become) but Deandre with a jumper (lol) no, he is not that.

He's 20, he's got good defensive instincts/timing, and he's got good footwork, that's all he has going for him right now. He cant finish, cant create for himself or others, cant stretch the floor, you don't really want him taking more than one dribble, and rarely does anything with it when he has the rock. Did I expect him to take over the league as a rookie? No, of course not. Did I think he'd be capable of knocking down open 3's and playing solid defense? Yes. Has he done that? No, not really aside from the defense somewhat.

KP and Markaanen (similar players in age, position, size and possible role) are in decidedly tougher situations where teams scheme for them, they have little to no support, and they manage to put up 10x the numbers and have 10x the impact Collins does. That could mean a couple of things, one, Collins is simply not getting the same amount of looks or the usage rate the other two, (more usage, more stats, more impact) but the looks are much more difficult than the ones Collins is getting. But it also could mean that Collins just simply hasn't done anything with the easier but less frequent looks he has been given. If he was half the player you say he is, he would be thriving in his role, he hasn't. He should be knocking down open 3's at even a league average level, he hasn't.

Is he going to be better than Nurk? Depends on who you think Nurk is. If you think Nurk is the same guy we had last year then I would say no way, but could he become better than this year's Nurk? Sure, but there is a HUGE CHASM of difference between better than Nurk this year and prime DeAndre Jordan with a jumper like you described. You should know this, since you watch 5x more basketball than anyone else. Right?

Never knew you were a Gonzaga fan. Pretty rare on this board. Surprising also, because if you watched him throughout college then you should've been able to see what this kid can do, and at least shouldn't be writing him off this early. You think I didn't watch him throughout college? Lmao. Don't get salty because I assumed I've watched him 5x more than you. Not touting myself, you're takes just come across as ignorant and as if you've barely watched him play. I'll explain below:

Why the hell couldn't he be DeAndre with a jumper? He has a better DBPM than DeAndre did his rookie season. While Zach doesn't have the blk rate that DeAndre did, he's already holding opponents to a 45 FG% at the rim. He's only played "somewhat solid defense"?... False. He's been good on that end, and the stats back it up.

As far as the shooting goes, you expected Collins to shoot a great percentage from 3pt when he's never been used out there consistently and has to adjust to the NBA 3pt line? But since he's shooting 32%, he won't become a floor-spacer?
Porzingis shot 33% from 3pt in year 1
Towns shot 34% from 3pt in year 1
Collins is shooting 32% from 3pt in year 1
Porzingis and Towns are now both shooting above 39% in year 3.
Collins also has a great, simple form. There's no reason to be down on his shooting.

Has he been good offensively this year? No. But there's also NO reason to be down on his long-term potential because of this year. Using the first 40-some games of his 1st season with the huge adjustment he has to make is silly, and I've tried to explain why. I know you want the 20-year-old to already play like a prime Serge Ibaka, but have patience.

 

[H.C.]

McCollum was a volume scorer in college. Him returning to form wasn't a personality change.

It was however an opportunity change.
When CJ was backing up Matthews, CJ was a spot up shooter who rarely got the opportunity to play with the ball in his hands.
Nor was he asked to score 20ppg due to the starting 5 Portland had.
Once CJ actually had the opportunity to have the ball in his hands he flourished.
Collins right now is playing with three players who should get the ball before he does in every situation.
Not saying Collins is going to turn into a 20+ppg scorer, and nearly hitting 50/40/90. But for a rookie not having any plays ran for him, he's looked far from lost.

 

[chzbrgr]

Never knew you were a Gonzaga fan. Pretty rare on this board. Surprising also, because if you watched him throughout college then you should've been able to see what this kid can do, and at least shouldn't be writing him off this early. You think I didn't watch him throughout college? Lmao. Don't get salty because I assumed I've watched him 5x more than you. Not touting myself, you're takes just come across as ignorant and as if you've barely watched him play. I'll explain below:

Why the hell couldn't he be DeAndre with a jumper? He has a better DBPM than DeAndre did his rookie season. While Zach doesn't have the blk rate that DeAndre did, he's already holding opponents to a 45 FG% at the rim. He's only played "somewhat solid defense"?... False. He's been good on that end, and the stats back it up.

As far as the shooting goes, you expected Collins to shoot a great percentage from 3pt when he's never been used out there consistently and has to adjust to the NBA 3pt line? But since he's shooting 32%, he won't become a floor-spacer?
Porzingis shot 33% from 3pt in year 1
Towns shot 34% from 3pt in year 1
Collins is shooting 32% from 3pt in year 1
Porzingis and Towns are now both shooting above 39% in year 3.
Collins also has a great, simple form. There's no reason to be down on his shooting.

Has he been good offensively this year? No. But there's also NO reason to be down on his long-term potential because of this year. Using the first 40-some games of his 1st season with the huge adjustment he has to make is silly, and I've tried to explain why. I know you want the 20-year-old to already play like a prime Serge Ibaka, but have patience.

Calling me ignorant while in the same breath comparing Collins to "prime DeAndre Jordan with a jumper" is in itself breathtaking so, congrats on that achievement! And by "watching him throughout college" you mean all of one season?
BTW I never wrote him off. I know it requires a little reading comprehension which isn't your strong suit, good on you for trying I guess but, I never wrote him off. Unless not considering him a 1st ballot HOF type of player is writing him off then I guess I did. I give him credit for his defense but again, idk how much of this is actually getting through since the last 3 times I said it haven't seemed to stick.

By your own admission Collins has not been good on offense this year so let's start again here
Lets look at his shooting numbers:
Collins (4/3/1)
3pt: .317 2pt: .414 ft: .560 Efg: .437

These are on limited albeit mostly uncontested attempts, would you agree?
OK now Lauri Markkanen (15/8 this year):
3pt: .356 2pt: .501 ft: .863 Efg: .516

KAT (averaged 18.3ppg and won ROY)
3pt: .341 2pt: .559 ft: .811 Efg: .555

KP (14/7/2blk as a rookie)
3pt: .333 2pt: .421 ft: .838 Efg: .467

These are on more volume however more difficult attempts, would you agree?
If you do, then you are admitting that Collins is less efficient with easier attempts. Collins' numbers are pretty obviously anemic in comparison. Especially if you look at his midrange numbers, which kind of prove my point even more since according to your infallible expertise, he is still getting used to the distance. 3-10ft: .233 10-16ft: .263 16-3p: .300 .....yikes. Collins simply has not played well on that side of the ball idk why that is all of a sudden news to you. Outside of a few flashes here or there he just has not shot it well or been able to score in general. He has only scored in double digits twice all year (11, 10 they came in back to back games). Scored 5pts or less in more than 75% of his games played and he has almost as many games with 0 points (10) than he has games with more than 5 (12).

The one thing you got right is that I do want him to be good and shooting is the one skill that can be learned and improved the most dramatically. I hope he does improve, for the sake of the franchise he better. We took him over Donovan Mitchell, the player Dame wanted, and a potential superstar. If Collins turns out to be what I think, which is a nice player but not a franchise changer, we will be looking back on this as a draft mistake of epic proportions.

But who am I kidding you don't actually read this, and if you do you wont understand the message in it. Cause I just come off as ignorant.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I know Nate opened the door by comparing him to LM, KAT, and KP, but personally, I have found comparing a 20 year old rookie coming on the bench who has almost no plays run for him ON A PLAYOFF team to dudes who are given the GREEN LIGHT on TEAMS THAT COMPLETELY SUCK is ridiculous.

I'm not worried about Zach at all, but yes, I'd like to see him at around a 15 PER instead of an 8. He had a great January, and has struggled in Feb. He wasn't selected to play AS weekend, so maybe he'll go on a Dame-style FU tour!

Calling me ignorant while in the same breath comparing Collins to "prime DeAndre Jordan with a jumper" is in itself breathtaking so, congrats on that achievement! And by "watching him throughout college" you mean all of one season?
BTW I never wrote him off. I know it requires a little reading comprehension which isn't your strong suit, good on you for trying I guess but, I never wrote him off. Unless not considering him a 1st ballot HOF type of player is writing him off then I guess I did. I give him credit for his defense but again, idk how much of this is actually getting through since the last 3 times I said it haven't seemed to stick.

By your own admission Collins has not been good on offense this year so let's start again here
Lets look at his shooting numbers:
Collins (4/3/1)
3pt: .317 2pt: .414 ft: .560 Efg: .437

These are on limited albeit mostly uncontested attempts, would you agree?
OK now Lauri Markkanen (15/8 this year):
3pt: .356 2pt: .501 ft: .863 Efg: .516

KAT (averaged 18.3ppg and won ROY)
3pt: .341 2pt: .559 ft: .811 Efg: .555

KP (14/7/2blk as a rookie)
3pt: .333 2pt: .421 ft: .838 Efg: .467

These are on more volume however more difficult attempts, would you agree?
If you do, then you are admitting that Collins is less efficient with easier attempts. Collins' numbers are pretty obviously anemic in comparison. Especially if you look at his midrange numbers, which kind of prove my point even more since according to your infallible expertise, he is still getting used to the distance. 3-10ft: .233 10-16ft: .263 16-3p: .300 .....yikes. Collins simply has not played well on that side of the ball idk why that is all of a sudden news to you. Outside of a few flashes here or there he just has not shot it well or been able to score in general. He has only scored in double digits twice all year (11, 10 they came in back to back games). Scored 5pts or less in more than 75% of his games played and he has almost as many games with 0 points (10) than he has games with more than 5 (12).

The one thing you got right is that I do want him to be good and shooting is the one skill that can be learned and improved the most dramatically. I hope he does improve, for the sake of the franchise he better. We took him over Donovan Mitchell, the player Dame wanted, and a potential superstar. If Collins turns out to be what I think, which is a nice player but not a franchise changer, we will be looking back on this as a draft mistake of epic proportions.

But who am I kidding you don't actually read this, and if you do you wont understand the message in it. Cause I just come off as ignorant.

 

[Blazinaway]

Bottom line for me is its way too early, I frankly am not that impressed for a 10 pick but realize he just turned 20 and played backup in college 1 yr. So he gets a pass this yr from me, offensive is poor but pretty decent D for a rook, we'll see

 

[tykendo]

Bottom line for me is its way too early, I frankly am not that impressed for a 10 pick but realize he just turned 20 and played backup in college 1 yr. So he gets a pass this yr from me, offensive is poor but pretty decent D for a rook, we'll see

I think the offense will come around. He has good form on his shots. But you can't teach his quick twitch skills on the defensive end, and THAT! excites me about his future with the Blazers.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Length extension?

Collins is elite in this category with his 9'3" reach!

For comparison:

LaMarcus: 9'2"
Oden: 9'3"
Whiteside: 9'5"

 

[BonesJones]

So I say this:

Has he been good offensively this year? No. But there's also NO reason to be down on his long-term potential because of this year.

Then you say this:

Collins simply has not played well on that side of the ball idk why that is all of a sudden news to you. Outside of a few flashes here or there he just has not shot it well or been able to score in general.

and ironically, this:

I know it requires a little reading comprehension which isn't your strong suit

And then you ramble on about him not being good offensively this year throughout the small sample size of 638 minutes (which I already stated), as if you're proving the point that it somehow effects his long-term outlook, without addressing what I said about how and why it's going to be a rough adjustment period for a while.

But please tell me why he doesn't have the potential to be a prime DeAndre Jordan with a jumpshot and more well-rounded offensive game?
Does he not have the potential to be the defender DJ was? (which makes no sense, because if we're going to use the small sample size of this year which you're doing, Zach has been better than DeAndre was at the same age)
Or does he not have the potential to be a good shooter with a more well-rounded offensive game than DeAndre? (which isn't exactly saying much)

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

I like turtles.

Oh....

And I still like Zach Collins’ future in the NBA.

 

[JDC]

Length extension?

Collins is elite in this category with his 9'3" reach!

For comparison:

LaMarcus: 9'2"
Oden: 9'3"
Whiteside: 9'5"

Maybe it's wingspan related, but his impressive standing reach hasn't translated into being an effective finisher against legit size and athleticism. It was a problem in college and continues to be a problem in the NBA.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

His theoretical skillset is very valuable and I trust his work ethic and IQ enough to think he'll improve at a faster rate than the typical prospect.

While I love a good BBIQ, it doesn’t overcome raw talent. Zach has talent and high IQ, but there are others with flat out more talent.

I think Zach will grow to be a very good role player but have retired my hopes for more.

 

[Blazer Freak]

Calling me ignorant while in the same breath comparing Collins to "prime DeAndre Jordan with a jumper" is in itself breathtaking so, congrats on that achievement! And by "watching him throughout college" you mean all of one season?
BTW I never wrote him off. I know it requires a little reading comprehension which isn't your strong suit, good on you for trying I guess but, I never wrote him off. Unless not considering him a 1st ballot HOF type of player is writing him off then I guess I did. I give him credit for his defense but again, idk how much of this is actually getting through since the last 3 times I said it haven't seemed to stick.

By your own admission Collins has not been good on offense this year so let's start again here
Lets look at his shooting numbers:
Collins (4/3/1)
3pt: .317 2pt: .414 ft: .560 Efg: .437

These are on limited albeit mostly uncontested attempts, would you agree?
OK now Lauri Markkanen (15/8 this year):
3pt: .356 2pt: .501 ft: .863 Efg: .516

KAT (averaged 18.3ppg and won ROY)
3pt: .341 2pt: .559 ft: .811 Efg: .555

KP (14/7/2blk as a rookie)
3pt: .333 2pt: .421 ft: .838 Efg: .467

These are on more volume however more difficult attempts, would you agree?
If you do, then you are admitting that Collins is less efficient with easier attempts. Collins' numbers are pretty obviously anemic in comparison. Especially if you look at his midrange numbers, which kind of prove my point even more since according to your infallible expertise, he is still getting used to the distance. 3-10ft: .233 10-16ft: .263 16-3p: .300 .....yikes. Collins simply has not played well on that side of the ball idk why that is all of a sudden news to you. Outside of a few flashes here or there he just has not shot it well or been able to score in general. He has only scored in double digits twice all year (11, 10 they came in back to back games). Scored 5pts or less in more than 75% of his games played and he has almost as many games with 0 points (10) than he has games with more than 5 (12).

The one thing you got right is that I do want him to be good and shooting is the one skill that can be learned and improved the most dramatically. I hope he does improve, for the sake of the franchise he better. We took him over Donovan Mitchell, the player Dame wanted, and a potential superstar. If Collins turns out to be what I think, which is a nice player but not a franchise changer, we will be looking back on this as a draft mistake of epic proportions.

But who am I kidding you don't actually read this, and if you do you wont understand the message in it. Cause I just come off as ignorant.

Bones has a very popular YouTube show...you should respect his opinion as gospel and just accept he is a fan in ways you cannot be!

 

[BonesJones]

Bones has a very popular YouTube show...you should respect his opinion as gospel and just accept he is a fan in ways you cannot be!

Thank you so much!

 

[mook]

It’s easy to forget Draymond’s rise, dude is an asshole but I respect the work he put in.

Also, interesting facts about these guys:

Gobert: 27th overall
Green: 35th overall
Ibaka: 24th overall
Prince: 23rd overall
Wallace: Undrafted

Collins: 10th overall...

Yeah, and it's also important to note that there are probably 500 ex-NBA players with similar stats who were out of the league after their first contract.

 

[Mediocre Man]

He's a complete work in progress. He hasn't lived up to the 10th pick in a loaded draft to this point. He has good footwork, and good defensive instincts, but everything else is a meh at best. Obviously, he could get better, but tgere is still a chance that he is this.

 

[illmatic99]

He was picked 4 picks after Zach.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I like all the different opinions (it is what make this board great, and it would be boring if we all agreed) but I also have to say haven't we learned enough from the "CJ is horrible" thread that it is prudent to be a little more patient? Unless eating crow is fun I guess.

 

[dviss1]

He cant finish, cant create for himself or others, cant stretch the floor, you don't really want him taking more than one dribble, and rarely does anything with it when he has the rock. Did I expect him to take over the league as a rookie? No, of course not. Did I think he'd be capable of knocking down open 3's and playing solid defense? Yes. Has he done that? No, not really aside from the defense somewhat

This is a crazy take imo.

 

[dviss1]

Maybe it's wingspan related, but his impressive standing reach hasn't translated into being an effective finisher against legit size and athleticism. It was a problem in college and continues to be a problem in the NBA.

Silly, that takes strength more than it does length.

 

[Hoopguru]

Get ready for the Zack Attack next season or maybe the playoffs?
If Mark Few say's he's going to be a very good pro I believe it!

 

[dviss1]

While I love a good BBIQ, it doesn’t overcome raw talent. Zach has talent and high IQ, but there are others with flat out more talent.

I think Zach will grow to be a very good role player but have retired my hopes for more.

I think it's a shame people give up so quickly.

So, Butters has spoiled it for Zach?

 

[Mediocre Man]

Get ready for the Zack Attack next season or maybe the playoffs?
If Mark Few say's he's going to be a very good pro I believe it!

Ya. If you can't trust his college coach, who can you trust?

 

[Hoopguru]

LANNY!!!! How are you brother! It's good to see you round these parts!

@BBert is just using a bit of sarcasm methinks.

Great to see Lanny here!

 

[Hoopguru]

Ya. If you can't trust his college coach, who can you trust?

Unless you are Rick Petino!

 

[BBert]

He's a complete work in progress. He hasn't lived up to the 10th pick in a loaded draft to this point. He has good footwork, and good defensive instincts, but everything else is a meh at best. Obviously, he could get better, but tgere is still a chance that he is this.

Wow that's way higher praise than you ever gave Meyers. Zach should feel flattered

 

[illmatic99]

Get ready for the Zack Attack next season or maybe the playoffs?
If Mark Few say's he's going to be a very good pro I believe it!

What did he say about Adam Morrison? Or Dan Dickau?