Zach Collins Video Analysis & Season Preview

[jlprk]

Why should Stotts give up on his shot? Have you seen Porzingas and Towns development in that area? No reason to think Zach cant follow the same curve.

Outside (i.e. 15-footers): He's no better than Davis would be, but Davis learned long ago not to try them.

Inside: Coaches have him trying to swivel around before shooting, but he's no better than Davis, if the coaches had told Davis to swivel, too.

Conclusion: His ceiling is Ed Davis. The bargain player Olshey dumped to let Collins develop.

 

[JDC]

From watching them throughout the season I still dont believe that's true. He played a ton with Williams and some with Karnowski IIRC.

Yeah he probably didn't play as much w/Tillie as I remember. Regardless, playing the 4 in the WCC is VERY different than playing the 4 in the NBA.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

This kid is RAW!!!!! Give him some time and don’t expect much. He didn’t even shine against G-League talent this summer. I think he is going to miss Ed as much as anybody.

Scoring is like Big Tits - it gets a lot of attention. Just because he wasn't scoring doesn't mean he wasn't impacting the game. In the SL game he missed, the opponent shot over 47% from the field. In the games he played, the opponents shot well under 40%. That's not RAW, that's DOMINATION.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Great thread. A lot of good points.
I agree that he is far too young to know his true potential on either side of the ball. Although I don't think he will not be as good as Ed this year, he does have a higher ceiling. I see no reason to think he will not eventually be a good pick and pop mid-range shooter.

As far as which position he eventually plays.......he will no doubt play both. You need versatile bigs and he is one. He will eventually be able to play with centers like Nurk because I believe he will have a good mid range shot (Better than Aminu's) yet still quick enough to guard the perimeter.....although playing 20 feet from the basket on D does waste his rim protection talent.

The bottom line we have to be able to match up with different types of offenses as the NBA continues to evolves, and we need versatile players to do so. Sometimes we need a banger and sometimes we need a quick center who can protect the rim when teams spread you out and play ISO ball (i.e Hardin at the end of the games where he carved us up at the rim.)

And I agree with Mook in that I think Portland is going to run a lot of 3 guard, 2 center lineups this year....especially late in games when teams tend to trap a little more. Not all match ups will allow it, but I am excited to see how it progresses as the season goes by.

 

[James lamphear]

Collins play great on D in the summer league and sometimes very dominant that end. Offensive I think the mask had something to do with his shot but yes he has to continue to get stronger. But the good thing he already knows this and that he already working on that part.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Great thread. A lot of good points.
I agree that he is far too young to know his true potential on either side of the ball. Although I don't think he will not be as good as Ed this year, he does have a higher ceiling. I see no reason to think he will not eventually be a good pick and pop mid-range shooter.

As far as which position he eventually plays.......he will no doubt play both. You need versatile bigs and he is one. He will eventually be able to play with centers like Nurk because I believe he will have a good mid range shot (Better than Aminu's) yet still quick enough to guard the perimeter.....although playing 20 feet from the basket on D does waste his rim protection talent.

The bottom line we have to be able to match up with different types of offenses as the NBA continues to evolves, and we need versatile players to do so. Sometimes we need a banger and sometimes we need a quick center who can protect the rim when teams spread you out and play ISO ball (i.e Hardin at the end of the games where he carved us up at the rim.)

And I agree with Mook in that I think Portland is going to run a lot of 3 guard, 2 center lineups this year....especially late in games when teams tend to trap a little more. Not all match ups will allow it, but I am excited to see how it progresses as the season goes by.

I'd love to see some Curry/CJ/Baldwin/Aminu/Collins action, where Baldwin plays PG on offense, and guards the opponents best wing player on D. Has shooting and defense.
edit: and passing.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Outside (i.e. 15-footers): He's no better than Davis would be, but Davis learned long ago not to try them.

Inside: Coaches have him trying to swivel around before shooting, but he's no better than Davis, if the coaches had told Davis to swivel, too.

Conclusion: His ceiling is Ed Davis. The bargain player Olshey dumped to let Collins develop.

You wanna back that up with some stats, or are you just pulling crap out of your ass?

Collins had a better outside shot in college than Davis EVER will...

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Stotts in an interview just said that Collins will play the "5 and the 4," which makes me think Nurk will come out first, and Collins will play along side Aminu for a while.

 

[Reep]

Stotts in an interview just said that Collins will play the "5 and the 4," which makes me think Nurk will come out first, and Collins will play with Aminu for a while.

I heard the same thing. It sure sounded to me like Collins would come off the bench and be part of a Nurkic/Aminu/Collins three-big rotation.

 

[BonesJones]

Outside (i.e. 15-footers): He's no better than Davis would be, but Davis learned long ago not to try them.

Inside: Coaches have him trying to swivel around before shooting, but he's no better than Davis, if the coaches had told Davis to swivel, too.

Conclusion: His ceiling is Ed Davis. The bargain player Olshey dumped to let Collins develop.

When has Davis ever shot 31% from 3?

Since when does Davis hit mid-range shots?

You're trippin'. Zach's is defense is already better. BTW - "Swivel" isn't a basketball term, so I have no idea what you're talking about.

 

[BonesJones]

Stotts in an interview just said that Collins will play the "5 and the 4," which makes me think Nurk will come out first, and Collins will play with Aminu for a while.

Or Aminu comes out at the 6 min mark, Zach subs in, plays with Nurk for 3 minutes, then Aminu subs in for Nurk, moving Collins to C, then Harkless plays 5 minutes or so of PF at the end of Collins shift at C so that Aminu is rested to finish the last 6 minutes of the half with Nurkic.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I heard the same thing. It sure sounded to me like Collins would come off the bench and be part of a Nurkic/Aminu/Collins three-big rotation.

Now that I think of it, it probably means Biebs won't be in the rotation.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Or Aminu comes out at the 6 min mark, Zach subs in, plays with Nurk for 3 minutes, then Aminu subs in for Nurk, moving Collins to C, then Harkless plays 5 minutes or so of PF at the end of Collins shift at C so that Aminu is rested to finish the last 6 minutes of the half with Nurkic.

Sounds like Zach playing the "4 or 5" instead of "5 or 4". Regardless, I like it. As Zach gets the lion's share of backup 4 and 5 minutes, I'm good. However, I do think it's possible Biggie gets a few minutes each game, too.

 

[BonesJones]

Sounds like Zach playing the "4 or 5" instead of "5 or 4". Regardless, I like it. As Zach gets the lion's share of backup 4 and 5 minutes, I'm good. However, I do think it's possible Biggie gets a few minutes each game, too.

Biggie shouldn't be seeing the floor if we're trying to compete at the highest level.

 

[MarAzul]

I'd like to see Zach on the high post with Nurk working corner to corner base line and three guards working the Princeton wheel.
Where there are a lot of plays to get the ball to Nurk, many to guards in motion to the rim, and Zach keeping the defense honest or he takes it to the rim or out to the open gunner. Need a coach for this though.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Biggie shouldn't be seeing the floor if we're trying to compete at the highest level.

There will be injuries, at least temporary ones. A 3 guard rotation, book it. A 3 C/PF rotation? Expect problems.

 

[hoopsjock]

There will be injuries, at least temporary ones. A 3 guard rotation, book it. A 3 C/PF rotation? Expect problems.

Exactly this.

 

[Reep]

Now that I think of it, it probably means Biebs won't be in the rotation.

Not unless he somehow earns minutes or someone gets hurt and he passes up Swanigan.

 

[BonesJones]

There will be injuries, at least temporary ones. A 3 guard rotation, book it. A 3 C/PF rotation? Expect problems.

A 3 guard rotation works because our starting backcourt deserves and can play 36 minutes a game, and are all interchangeable between the two guard spots. None of that can be said for our frontcourt.

 

[BonesJones]

What I'd go with:

Lillard (36) / Curry (12)
McCollum (35) / Curry (13)
Harkless (28) / Trent (16) / Curry (4)
Aminu (33) / Collins (10) / Harkless (5)
Nurkic (32) / Collins (18)

I think they'll have Turner playing instead of Trent though.

 

[0-Our!]

Now that I think of it, it probably means Biebs won't be in the rotation.

 

[mook]

And I agree with Mook in that I think Portland is going to run a lot of 3 guard, 2 center lineups this year....especially late in games when teams tend to trap a little more. Not all match ups will allow it, but I am excited to see how it progresses as the season goes by.

Yeah, when you think about it our whole defense is predicated on guarding the 3 and at the rim, and giving up contested 2s. A 6'1 guy can throw a hand in somebody's face at the three point line just as easily as a longer guy in most instances, especially when it comes down to fighting through screens. Size and length are most useful for swingmen contesting midrange jumpers and drives to the rim. If you have Nurk and Collins inside, it shuts down the rim. So the 3 guard/2 center rotation accomplishes most of what we need it to on the defensive end.

On offense, it's mostly 3 guards bombing away with our bigs fighting for boards and dump-offs. With the size advantage we'd have over most teams, and Lillard/CJ doing much of the bombing, I like our odds.

The odd man out I see this coming year is Turner. There's not enough space to play him with 2 centers, which is awkward because Collins is coming off the bench. So you try to get him in when Collins and Aminu are together, but that's not enough time for a guy who handles the ball a lot to get into the flow of the offense. Normally you don't give a shit about what you do with an average defender who had a 9.9 PER season on 2000+ minutes, but when you still owe him $36m over two seasons you kind of have to.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I'm fairly confident his defense is good enough for him to have a long, useful NBA career. To be a real impact player, he needs to make huge strides on offense.

Does anybody else sorta wish we had traded for John Collins instead?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I'm fairly confident his defense is good enough for him to have a long, useful NBA career. To be a real impact player, he needs to make huge strides on offense.

Does anybody else sorta wish we had traded for John Collins instead?

I like John Collins a lot, but as I understand it, the game is played with 1 basketball....

 

[Propagandist]

I'm fairly confident his defense is good enough for him to have a long, useful NBA career. To be a real impact player, he needs to make huge strides on offense.

Does anybody else sorta wish we had traded for John Collins instead?

Absolutely! Check out this side by side: https://www.basketball-reference.co...lins&y2=2018&player_id2=colliza01&idx=players

I don't think there's a single stat Zach outperformed John last season and I know, I know Atlanta wasn't good, but neither was Zach really.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Absolutely! Check out this side by side: https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=John Collins&player_id1_select=John Collins&player_id1=collijo01&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Zach Collins&player_id2_select=Zach Collins&y2=2018&player_id2=colliza01&idx=players

I don't think there's a single stat Zach outperformed John last season and I know, I know Atlanta wasn't good, but neither was Zach really.

Exhale. Ok, let me get this out there. Regardless of you and I being on the opposite side of the Olshey thing, I really like you a lot as a poster. In that spirit, let me say, respectfully, you've completely gone off the rails here.

I like John Collins as a player, A LOT. But, a side-by-side stat comparison makes no sense because...

1) Hawks Suck: JC played EXACTLY ZERO meaningful games. The Hawks were the worst team in by far the weakest conference.
2) Blazers Rock: ZC OTOH played meaning minutes on the team that finished 3rd seed (albeit by a thin margin) in by far the toughest conference.
3) Different Roles: I'm not sure if JC had to defer to any teammates, but ZC sure had to. ZCs role was to play defense and fit in on offense, not take shots.
4) Different Stages of Development: It's been well understood that JCs body was much more NBA ready than Zachs. Zach's body will catch up in time.
5) Summer League: The Hawks with John Collins went ZERO wins, FIVE losses. He scored a lot, showed he belonged, but he couldn't get them a single win. In fact, their first win game in the first game JC didn't play in. Contrast this with ZC. The Blazers went undefeated. Their only close game came in the one game ZC didn't play in. Of course, this was all with ZC wearing a mask, hindering his abilities.

Random Notes:
The Hawks are in serious trouble. They got destroyed in SL who had Trey Young and John Collins, who are likely to be starters for their real team.
JC and ZC are both still very young, and their career arcs project to be very different. ZC will be a vital cog on a playoff team. JC looks to become a good scorer on a terrible team.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Absolutely! Check out this side by side: https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=1&player_id1_hint=John Collins&player_id1_select=John Collins&player_id1=collijo01&y1=2018&player_id2_hint=Zach Collins&player_id2_select=Zach Collins&y2=2018&player_id2=colliza01&idx=players

I don't think there's a single stat Zach outperformed John last season and I know, I know Atlanta wasn't good, but neither was Zach really.

DRtg!!!!! Zach = 107, John = 108!!!! Take that stat man!

Seriously, that stat is influenced highly by teammates and system. So, not really all that meaningful, but I didn't really expect Zach's stats to compare favorably to John's in any way. Different players, different strengths, different roles, different places in their development.

4) Different Stages of Development: It's been well understood that JCs body was much more NBA ready than Zachs. Zach's body will catch up in time.

It's not just a physical thing. John also had 2x the college experience Zach did (2 seasons and 1324 minutes vs. 1 season and 673 minutes). John was considered much more NBA ready, with a lower ceiling. Zach was considered a project with a higher ceiling. It's not surprising, at all, that John had a far superior rookie year, stat wise. It was what was expected.

BNM

 

[Propagandist]

Exhale. Ok, let me get this out there. Regardless of you and I being on the opposite side of the Olshey thing, I really like you a lot as a poster. In that spirit, let me say, respectfully, you've completely gone off the rails here.

I like John Collins as a player, A LOT. But, a side-by-side stat comparison makes no sense because...

1) Hawks Suck: JC played EXACTLY ZERO meaningful games. The Hawks were the worst team in by far the weakest conference.
2) Blazers Rock: ZC OTOH played meaning minutes on the team that finished 3rd seed (albeit by a thin margin) in by far the toughest conference.
3) Different Roles: I'm not sure if JC had to defer to any teammates, but ZC sure had to. ZCs role was to play defense and fit in on offense, not take shots.
4) Different Stages of Development: It's been well understood that JCs body was much more NBA ready than Zachs. Zach's body will catch up in time.
5) Summer League: The Hawks with John Collins went ZERO wins, FIVE losses. He scored a lot, showed he belonged, but he couldn't get them a single win. In fact, their first win game in the first game JC didn't play in. Contrast this with ZC. The Blazers went undefeated. Their only close game came in the one game ZC didn't play in. Of course, this was all with ZC wearing a mask, hindering his abilities.

Random Notes:
The Hawks are in serious trouble. They got destroyed in SL who had Trey Young and John Collins, who are likely to be starters for their real team.
JC and ZC are both still very young, and their career arcs project to be very different. ZC will be a vital cog on a playoff team. JC looks to become a good scorer on a terrible team.

Thanks, man. (Before I continue, I'll say I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I like Zach just fine. That being said...)

1. JC had better defensive stats on a shit team. Give the guy some credit...
2. Can't deny this at all. On top of this I'd argue that Zach's leash wasn't all that long. So he really didn't have the freedom to show what he was capable of.
3. See above. I agree. Although JC did both much much better in his role.
4. Whatever. They're the same age and so we are hoping Zach's body will catch up in time. No matter what ZC will never the athlete JC is but he can get stronger, obviously.
5. I don't like your Summer league points. JC played like 2 games and averaged 300 points and 75 rebounds a game. Zach showed his defensive acumen in Vegas, I agree. All the other stuff he contributed to, but wow other guys stepped up. Switch ZC and JC on those teams and I'm not so sure the team result differ.

You could argue that we need another go to guy and JC could've been that guy; Zach most likely will not be. But hey, let's just appreciate ZC for what he does well. At least, no matter what, he'll fit in and play stellar D and hit the occasional 3. A great role player.

 

[Propagandist]

DRtg!!!!! Zach = 107, John = 108!!!! Take that stat man!

Seriously, that stat is influenced highly by teammates and system. So, not really all that meaningful, but I didn't really expect Zach's stats to compare favorably to John's in any way. Different players, different strengths, different roles, different places in their development.



It's not just a physical thing. John also had 2x the college experience Zach did (2 seasons and 1324 minutes vs. 1 season and 673 minutes). John was considered much more NBA ready, with a lower ceiling. Zach was considered a project with a higher ceiling. It's not surprising, at all, that John had a far superior rookie year, stat wise. It was what was expected.

BNM

Honestly, I was just fucking around. But JC had impressive numbers; I was surprised.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Honestly, I was just fucking around. But JC had impressive numbers; I was surprised.

It's really hard to get a handle on JC's performance. The raw stats look good, for a rookie, but the advanced stats show otherwise. He put up some truly horrible +/- numbers, but then ATL was a truly horrible team. So, it's hard to pin that on him (although ALT's total +/- was worse with him on the floor than off, and his +/- was considerably worse as a starter).

At this point, it's hard to tell is he is as good as his individual stats, or if he's just the next Shareef Abdur-Rahim.

I guess time will tell, and it's not like getting the next Shareef Abdur-Rahim with the 19th pick in the draft is a bad thing.

BNM