2008 Blake V. 2009 Miller - Advanced Statistical Comparison

[andalusian]

I actually have some doubts now, at least in terms of what this team needs from a PG to be offensively efficient. I was surprised at the far superior numbers the team had with BLANKY last season as PG compared to what we've seen with Miller running the offense this year. I mean, it's not even close at this point.

In a vacuum, on most teams where their best player is not a ball-handling small-guard, Miller is a much better player than Blake. He proved it through-out his career, and you can see, that when it comes to setting others and attacking the rim from the dribble, he is still a better player - I still think so.

I was just worried about the fit earlier, and so far - my worries have not subsided.

This team was built a lot like the Orlando Magic last year - long, tall, athletic, with a lot of 3 point shooting. Miller is not a good fit to teams that play this style, it seems.

 

[PapaG]

Well, clearly 2008 Blake is the superior offensive PG. I'm just amazed at the awesome transformation stopper Andre Miller has done to our defense. From middle of the pack to rivaling Boston? Impressive. He's like a player/Defensive Coordinator all in one.

That's been a very pleasant surprise, especially since Miller and BLANKY can't defend anyone.

 

[blazerboy30]

Regardless of stats, last night was an absolutely great example of the difference in PG skills between Blake and Miller.

When the Pistons cranked up the defensive intensity, and full court press, Blake couldn't even begin to handle the pressure and bringing the ball up the court.

When Miller came in, he had no problems with their pressure defense and just dribbled through it.

To me, it was clear as day who should be running PG and handling the ball.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Regardless of stats, last night was an absolutely great example of the difference in PG skills between Blake and Miller.

When the Pistons cranked up the defensive intensity, and full court press, Blake couldn't even begin to handle the pressure and bringing the ball up the court.

When Miller came in, he had no problems with their pressure defense and just dribbled through it.

To me, it was clear as day who should be running PG and handling the ball.

In terms of ball handling, running the fast break, and all the other traditional PG dutys, Blake this year has been worse than Jarret Jack ever was for the Blazers

And thats saying a lot

 

[PapaG]

Regardless of stats, last night was an absolutely great example of the difference in PG skills between Blake and Miller.

When the Pistons cranked up the defensive intensity, and full court press, Blake couldn't even begin to handle the pressure and bringing the ball up the court.

When Miller came in, he had no problems with their pressure defense and just dribbled through it.

To me, it was clear as day who should be running PG and handling the ball.

Roy? The comparative stats say he should be.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Roy? The comparative stats say he should be.

Miller?

The game last night proved that, as Miller was the only effective Blazer to break the pistons press in the 4th

 

[julius]

we should compare Andre Miller next year, to Blake in 1998, when he was in high school.

 

[PapaG]

we should compare Andre Miller next year, to Blake in 1998, when he was in high school.

Snarky comments can't hide how the offense is much worse so far this year than it was last year.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Snarky comments can't hide how the offense is much worse so far this year than it was last year.

PER

Blake 9.5

 

[RR7]

Yet he has a much better center.


It's not even close, IMO.

Oh really? I'm going to go ahead and use the important stats you used to show Blake is better. Let us see.

TS%
2008 Joel 65.2%
2009 Greg 62.3%

eFG%
2008 Joel 62.5%
2009 Greg 59.6%

Asst%
2008 Joel 2.0%
2009 Greg 4.8%

Steal%
2008 Joel 1.0%
2009 Greg 0.7%

PER
2008 Joel 15.4
2009 Greg 19.1

Usg%
2008 Joel 10.2%
2009 Greg 18.9%

DRtg
2008 Joel 102
2009 Greg 92
*2009 Joel is at 93.

ORtg
2008 Joel 124
2009 Greg 108

WS (pretty sure win shares increase as the season goes on, so showing this is dumb, but whatever)
2008 Joel 6.6
2009 Greg 1.3

Offensive Efficiency
2008 Blazers with Joel 110.7
2009 with greg 103.7

So...by your numbers, yes, Blake is the better PG. But as far as I can tell, Miller is playing with a much worse SG, and by your estimation, a much worse C, so why would we expect him to be better than Blake was last season?

 

[RR7]

Roy? The comparative stats say he should be.

So you want to play our 2nd Team AllNBA SG out of position at PG?

 

[Pontius]

Roy is still playing "SG" on offense. Blake is basically playing the Batum role of standing outside and shooting.

So, not really a good point, since Blake is a better offensive player than Batum, and Oden is a much better offensive player than Przy was for Blake last season.

I don't agree with you that Blake is a better offensive player than Batum if we are talking about playing the wing, which is what we are talking about. Batum shot better last year than Blake is now shooting, and he also offered more in terms of offensive rebounding and fast break finishing. I also feel that Batum is an innately better passer.

You have a hard on for Blake and something of the opposite for Miller. You are what you call others: predictable.

 

[LittleAlex]

I actually have some doubts now, at least in terms of what this team needs from a PG to be offensively efficient. I was surprised at the far superior numbers the team had with BLANKY last season as PG compared to what we've seen with Miller running the offense this year. I mean, it's not even close at this point.

How about this.

If you slow the game to a half-court, grind it out style then Miller and Blake are pretty close in ability.

If you increase the pace of the game, Blake gets worse and Miller gets better.

Really Miller came to exactly the wrong team for his abilities.

I mean god forbid you adjust playstyle just because you have different players.

Crazy talk.

 

[julius]

Snarky comments can't hide how the offense is much worse so far this year than it was last year.

It's snarky because you made a hollow argument. You're going after a whole seasons worth of games, vs 7 or 8 games with Miller starting.

Take the first 8 games that Blake started last year, and you would have a fair comparison, but I bet it doesn't back your argument nearly as well.


Of course, someone might've already pointed that out or did it. I haven't read through the plethora of posts.

 

[PapaG]

I don't agree with you that Blake is a better offensive player than Batum if we are talking about playing the wing, which is what we are talking about. Batum shot better last year than Blake is now shooting, and he also offered more in terms of offensive rebounding and fast break finishing. I also feel that Batum is an innately better passer.

You have a hard on for Blake and something of the opposite for Miller. You are what you call others: predictable.

No, I don't. I just think Miller has been even crappier than Blake was last year, at least so far this year. 2009 BLANKY is worse than all of them.

 

[PapaG]

So you want to play our 2nd Team AllNBA SG out of position at PG?

No, Roy was the primary ball-handler down the stretch of games last year. I'd rather have the ball in Roy's hands than Miller's.

 

[PapaG]

It's snarky because you made a hollow argument. You're going after a whole seasons worth of games, vs 7 or 8 games with Miller starting.

Take the first 8 games that Blake started last year, and you would have a fair comparison, but I bet it doesn't back your argument nearly as well.


Of course, someone might've already pointed that out or did it. I haven't read through the plethora of posts.

It's fair to compare what Miller has "added" to the offense so far this year compared to last year as a whole. It's not a "hollow" argument, but rather an incomplete data set. Then again, the entire board is filled with angry threads about Steve Blake's performance after 13 games.

I guess BLANKY can be criticized after 13 games, but pointing out Miller's contribution by comparison is a "hollow argument".

 

[B-Roy]

You don't have a very convincing argument...Why do you only use 08 numbers and then use 09 numbers when they favor Blake?

 

[PapaG]

You don't have a very convincing argument...Why do you only use 08 numbers and then use 09 numbers when they favor Blake?

I explained that, but I'm also not making an argument. I am posting statistics. I guess this means I have a "hard on" for BLANKY.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

If Miller has been an upgrade thus far, I'd hate to see what a downgrade would look like. At this point, the Miller signing seems to be a complete dud, at least in terms of upgrading what BLANKY did last year as the starting PG.

This to me really makes me believe that you ARE making an argument.

 

[RR7]

Just curious, based on the numbers I've shown, the same numbers you posted, if you are confused as to why we are starting Greg over Joel as well. And are you wishing that we would have stuck with what worked last year, since Greg is clearly not an upgrade so far this season.

 

[PapaG]

Just curious, based on the numbers I've shown, the same numbers you posted, if you are confused as to why we are starting Greg over Joel as well. And are you wishing that we would have stuck with what worked last year, since Greg is clearly not an upgrade so far this season.

Maybe Oden is better as a bench player. That said, the defense is much, much better with him in the starting line-up, so maybe not? Or perhaps BLANKY elevated Przy's game, and Miller doesn't know how to effectively use Oden.

 

[blazerboy30]

Roy? The comparative stats say he should be.

Which comparative stats say Roy should be handling the ball to break a full-court press?

 

[RR7]

I dunno. Greg did start 39 games last season. So he had some effect on their rating last season as well. I'd say it's pretty obvious that the addition of Miller is what has made our defense the second best defense in the league so far, as he is the lone new addition to the lineup.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Personally, I think it's because we swapped "no defense Frenchy" Batum for Miller in the starting lineup. That's why our D is so good now.

 

[PapaG]

Which comparative stats say Roy should be handling the ball to break a full-court press?

Which comparative stats say Roy shouldn't be handling the ball to break a full-court press?

That said, the most effective way to beat a press is to pass over it, not dribble through it.

 

[PapaG]

I dunno. Greg did start 39 games last season. So he had some effect on their rating last season as well. I'd say it's pretty obvious that the addition of Miller is what has made our defense the second best defense in the league so far, as he is the lone new addition to the lineup.

That's fine. The offense sucks under Miller, but the defense is much better.

I can live with that.

 

[RR7]

And Blake couldn't dribble through it OR pass over it.

 

[RR7]

That's fine. The offense sucks under Miller, but the defense is much better.

I can live with that.

Sounds good. Defense wins championships.

 

[PapaG]

And Blake couldn't dribble through it OR pass over it.

Wondering what that has to do with Roy.