Politics 2020 Field - DNC (5 Viewers)

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 6 (members: 0, guests: 6)
Minstrel said:
I'm starting to believe Sanders will end up the nominee. He did pretty well in 2016 with what was assumed for much of the cycle to be an "inevitable" nominee in Hillary Clinton. This cycle has no such overwhelming favorite--Joe Biden looked like one early, but he certainly doesn't seem like one anymore. Sanders is the nominee who tends to engender the most passion which, for all the concern over his "electability," is probably the most important quality a Presidential candidate can have.

That said, Biden does have a chance at a comeback. Iowa and New Hampshire were expected to be worse states for him in the primary. Nevada and South Carolina were supposed to be strong ones (among the early states)--he pretty much needs to win them both now.
Click to expand...

If I had to bet on one candidate right now, I'd bet on Sanders. But it's very early still, and things could go wrong/change.

One big warning sign for Sanders: He got 60% of the vote in NH in 2016, and only 26% tonight. Sure, there are many more people in the race this time, but that means that more than half the people who voted for him last time didn't vote for him this time. Can he still win a plurality when it gets down to only 2 or 3 candidates in the race? Remains to be seen.

barfo
 
barfo said:
If I had to bet on one candidate right now, I'd bet on Sanders. But it's very early still, and things could go wrong/change.

One big warning sign for Sanders: He got 60% of the vote in NH in 2016, and only 26% tonight. Sure, there are many more people in the race this time, but that means that more than half the people who voted for him last time didn't vote for him this time. Can he still win a plurality when it gets down to only 2 or 3 candidates in the race? Remains to be seen.

barfo
Click to expand...
I may be wrong but I think there is a better chance that the party will get behind a Pete/Klobachar/Joe effort. The people in the part have a choice to make if they want to support a democratic socialist and the extreme left wing that will not only follow his lead now but navigate it further left.
 
Hoopguru said:
I may be wrong but I think there is a better chance that the party will get behind a Pete/Klobachar/Joe effort. The people in the part have a choice to make if they want to support a democratic socialist and the extreme left wing that will not only follow his lead now but navigate it further left.
Click to expand...

Well, the party people in NH made a choice tonight, and more of them chose Bernie than anyone else. Of course, even more chose not-Bernie.

But not-Bernie can't be nominated.

barfo
 
barfo said:
If I had to bet on one candidate right now, I'd bet on Sanders. But it's very early still, and things could go wrong/change.

One big warning sign for Sanders: He got 60% of the vote in NH in 2016, and only 26% tonight. Sure, there are many more people in the race this time, but that means that more than half the people who voted for him last time didn't vote for him this time. Can he still win a plurality when it gets down to only 2 or 3 candidates in the race? Remains to be seen.

barfo
Click to expand...

But, he still won against two moderates despite a close vote
 
It appears someone photoshopped “Pete” over these hostages “help us” signs.75E40C91-30B4-4474-9F64-518FA8F90AD9.jpeg
 
If the Democrats really don't care about winning the general election then they should nominate Sanders. Then they can all passionately lose again.
 
So it's down to 7: Bernie, Bloomberg, Buttigieg, Biden, Warren, Amy, and Steyer. In rough order of my current handicapping (disclaimer: predictions are hard, especially about the future).

I suppose Gabbard is still technically in it, but she's got less appeal than Tom Steyer, without any of his money.

Who is the next to drop out? It won't be any of Bernie, Bloomberg, Buttigieg. They all have plenty of money and plenty of reason for optimism.
It will be Steyer only if he decides he's tired of pissing away his money.
It might be Amy if her fundraising momentum this week doesn't last and she finishes poorly in the next two.
It could be Warren if she finishes 4th or 5th in both NV and SC.
It will be Biden if he loses SC.

barfo
 
barfo said:
Well, the party people in NH made a choice tonight, and more of them chose Bernie than anyone else. Of course, even more chose not-Bernie.

But not-Bernie can't be nominated.
Click to expand...

The "not-Bernie" nomination is a contested convention. And I think that's a real possibility right now. If I knew for a fact that one candidate would win an outright majority of delegates, I'd bet on Sanders. But I think the most likely possibility might be someone (like Sanders) getting only a plurality with no majority and it being wrangled at the convention.

That said, if the winner of a contested convention isn't the person with the plurality, that's going to be problematic for the party.
 
VanillaGorilla said:
Bernie has the best chance to beat Trump. Any other Democrat would have less excitement than Clinton. Who do you think has a better chance?
Click to expand...

Can not speak for others, like many try to do. But.

I would vote for Amy over Trump.

I would go to jail for voting 10 times for Trump over Bernie. I would rather go to jail to protect future generations rather than vote for Bernie's faulty plans.

The only area Bermie beats Trump is, Bernie has better manners than Trump. After that Bernie is the bigger liar, and a clueless whimp.
 
tmm11uz97eg41.png
 
oldfisherman said:
Can not speak for others, like many try to do. But.

I would vote for Amy over Trump.

I would go to jail for voting 10 times for Trump over Bernie. I would rather go to jail to protect future generations rather than vote for Bernie's faulty plans.

The only area Bermie beats Trump is, Bernie has better manners than Trump. After that Bernie is the bigger liar, and a clueless whimp.
Click to expand...
I wasn't really asking anyone who they personally would vote for. Do you think Amy legitimately has a better chance to beat Trump? Regardless of whether you'd vote for Trump over Bernie, which, for the record, I think is ridiculous. I don't think most people who lean towards voting Democrat agree with that.
 
Minstrel said:
The "not-Bernie" nomination is a contested convention. And I think that's a real possibility right now. If I knew for a fact that one candidate would win an outright majority of delegates, I'd bet on Sanders. But I think the most likely possibility might be someone (like Sanders) getting only a plurality with no majority and it being wrangled at the convention.

That said, if the winner of a contested convention isn't the person with the plurality, that's going to be problematic for the party.
Click to expand...

Especially if the one with the plurality is Bernie. Or less likely, Joe or Liz.

Pete or Amy, you can somewhat imagine them taking one for the team with the expectation of being next in line. Can't expect the 80 year olds to do that.

And the fans of one particular candidate would go absolutely apeshit. Which might be sort of fun to watch, but would probably be a big distraction.

barfo
 
VanillaGorilla said:
So you think anyone more moderate has a better chance at beating Trump? It's that simple?
Click to expand...

I don't think it is as simple as nominating a moderate, or a liberal, or the person with the most rabid fanbase, or the person with the most qualifications on paper, or from a particular region, or a particular race, or...

barfo
 
Welp. Biden's done. Hopefully for his party's sake he'll realize it sooner than later.
 
DNC chair Tom Perez said if a candidate has a clear plurality he/ she will be nominated at the convention. Is someone has say 40 percent and next person 25, that would be clear plurality. Problem would be if two or three each have around 30. But only two small states have voted. See what happens after Super Tuesday.
 
MARIS61 said:
We both referred to the same source, Gallup.

Mine was now, yours was last June.
Click to expand...
I know it's convoluted and that along with your post makes me wonder if you're following along.
 
Bernie is already worried about Bloomberg and the advent of him "buying a nomination".

With Hillary out of the picture, the democratic infighting is gonna be spectacular this time around. Bernie should be the clear front-runner, but it seems to me the party doesn't want him. Biden is self-destructing by the day. Buttigieg is way too inexperienced. Warren appears to be going the way of Biden. Dunno. Klobuchar might be a bit of an x-factor, but I believe she'll fade.

Can you say brokered convention? Sure ya can. :)

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/482245-democrats-see-chances-rising-for-brokered-convention

upload_2020-2-12_12-24-29.jpeg
 
Last edited:
barfo said:
I don't think it is as simple as nominating a moderate, or a liberal, or the person with the most rabid fanbase, or the person with the most qualifications on paper, or from a particular region, or a particular race, or...

barfo
Click to expand...

Part of the reason the Democratic Party appears to be so fragmented/splintered.

See: Brokered Convention
 
Biden: "It ain't over, man."

As I understand, though, the fat lady is back in her chambers warming up.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top