Game Thread 2022-23 Game #64- BLAZERS @ MAGIC - MARCH 5, 2023 - SUNDAY - 3:00 PM (PDT) ROOT

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I'm glad I'm always right in the end. Life is good.
 
Fairly-Hard said:
No. Down three the pressure was on them to make the shots. If they missed one it was over.
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Yep. By fouling, we put the pressure back on ourselves to make FTs. It was a bad strategy. Just play defense and grab the rebound.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
the third time, yes. but I'm not sure on the first two. I think best to get down to about 4 seconds.
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With Dame's FT shooting, the numbers seem to indicate anything under 10-15 seconds should be a solid play. We basically didn't give Orlando a chance to tie it.
 
KingSpeed said:
Yep. By fouling, we put the pressure back on ourselves to make FTs. It was a bad strategy. Just play defense and grab the rebound.
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That's not really how it works.

We were having our 80% and 90% FT shooters going up against their 75% FT shooters. The odds of Orlando making one more FT than us and making an additonal FG are much less than their 35% 3pt shooting. No strategy is without the possibility of it not working, but the probablity of us fouling vs letting them shoot a 3 is certainly in our favor.
 
Tince said:
That's not really how it works.

We were having our 80% and 90% FT shooters going up against their 75% FT shooters. The odds of Orlando making one more FT than us and making an additonal FG are much less than their 35% 3pt shooting. No strategy is without the possibility of it not working, but the probablity of us fouling vs letting them shoot a 3 is certainly in our favor.
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On the bright side we can make this blunder of a game up with a big loss tomorrow against the Pistons
 
KingSpeed said:
Yep. By fouling, we put the pressure back on ourselves to make FTs. It was a bad strategy. Just play defense and grab the rebound.
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You don't let them get a shot at three? What are you thinking? Just play defense? What? Grab a rebound? What What?
 
MickZagger said:
On the bright side we can make this blunder of a game up with a big loss tomorrow against the Pistons
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Dame for 40 and another win gets them back on the play in and closer to the scoring title. A miraculous win streak gets Dame in the MVP talk.
A loss gets them back into the lottery talk.
What's not to like?
 
Fairly-Hard said:
Dame for 40 and another win gets them back on the play in and closer to the scoring title. A miraculous win streak gets Dame in the MVP talk.
A loss gets them back into the lottery talk.
What's not to like?
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Play in is pointless. Not sure if you noticed but we can’t beat good teams. A higher pick is much more valuable. We won’t make the play in or the playoffs anyways so Lillard’s scoring title doesn’t really mean much to me.

In a winning season I’d be absolutely stoked for a scoring title.
 
Tince said:
That's not really how it works.

We were having our 80% and 90% FT shooters going up against their 75% FT shooters. The odds of Orlando making one more FT than us and making an additonal FG are much less than their 35% 3pt shooting. No strategy is without the possibility of it not working, but the probablity of us fouling vs letting them shoot a 3 is certainly in our favor.
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I would’ve preferred us to just play defense and get a stop.
 
MickZagger said:
Play in is pointless. Not sure if you noticed but we can’t beat good teams. A higher pick is much more valuable. We won’t make the play in or the playoffs anyways so Lillard’s scoring title doesn’t really mean much to me.

In a winning season I’d be absolutely stoked for a scoring title.
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Good teams we’ve beaten: Healthy Suns (twice), Denver, Sacramento, Warriors, Wolves (twice). That’s 5 of top 6 in West. We’ve also beaten 3 of the 4 current play-in teams.
 
KingSpeed said:
I would’ve preferred us to just play defense and get a stop.
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I am not sure which strategy is best, but there certainly are a lot of coaches who believe you don't give a team the chance to tie with a 3 when you can put them at the line for 2. Especially when NBA players are so good at shooting them now.

Personally, I go back and forth on that strategy because you always run the risk of giving up a rebound if the shooter intentionally misses the 2nd FT. But I had no problem with Chancey's trying it, especially since the rules favor the 3-point shooters these days. You get close to them and it is a foul. However, fouling twice after only 2 seconds had run the clock seemed a little quick IMO.
 
I usually don't get into these back and forths but I still think it was wrong to foul intentionally three times in last 9 seconds. That's three times some guy could have anticipated a foul and thrown up a crazy three that went in. That's three times we had to inbound after they made free throws with the chance of getting the ball stolen under their basket.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
I usually don't get into these back and forths but I still think it was wrong to foul intentionally three times in last 9 seconds. That's three times some guy could have anticipated a foul and thrown up a crazy three that went in. That's three times we had to inbound after they made free throws with the chance of getting the ball stolen under their basket.
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It was only twice in the last 9 seconds, but I get your point.
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
I usually don't get into these back and forths but I still think it was wrong to foul intentionally three times in last 9 seconds. That's three times some guy could have anticipated a foul and thrown up a crazy three that went in. That's three times we had to inbound after they made free throws with the chance of getting the ball stolen under their basket.
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Are you Terry Stotts?
 
MickZagger said:
Play in is pointless. Not sure if you noticed but we can’t beat good teams. A higher pick is much more valuable. We won’t make the play in or the playoffs anyways so Lillard’s scoring title doesn’t really mean much to me.

In a winning season I’d be absolutely stoked for a scoring title.
Click to expand...

This might be a reasonable point if the Blazers had been losing when playing with a full roster, but when we've played the past month or more with 2 starters out, and a significant bench player out longer than that, it doesn't make sense to me. It sounds like Nurk is going to play at some point on this trip and Ant may as well. Getting them back is huge. I don't know what's up with Winslow, but obviously his availability isn't as important. People forget how this team started out the season. While Hart is no longer on the squad, I like the additions of Reddish and Thybulle. Get healthy and any team with Dame on it has a puncher's chance of winning.
 
MickZagger said:
Play in is pointless. Not sure if you noticed but we can’t beat good teams. A higher pick is much more valuable. We won’t make the play in or the playoffs anyways so Lillard’s scoring title doesn’t really mean much to me.

In a winning season I’d be absolutely stoked for a scoring title.
Click to expand...
So if Nurk makes it back healthy and Simons gets back and Winslow gets back and they beat a couple good teams and win enough games to be above .500 and make the playin or better and actually put a better team on the floor is Lillard getting the scoring title worthwhile? Is 42-40 a winning season because that is very much within reach still. Maybe not probable but it certainly is possible. 12-6 the rest of the way?

I know all about the tank and the value of the pick. I just will never back losing on purpose. Sorry it's my fatal flaw.
 
What the hell is going on?
I go away for one day and you guys screw up the tank!?
Gotta get back on track tonight.....
 
KingSpeed said:
I would’ve preferred us to just play defense and get a stop.
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I get that... the math would indication that option would be more likely to fail than the strategy we implemented though. Got to give credit to the staff for optimizing our probability of winning (for those rooting for us to win).
 
UKRAINEFAN said:
I usually don't get into these back and forths but I still think it was wrong to foul intentionally three times in last 9 seconds. That's three times some guy could have anticipated a foul and thrown up a crazy three that went in. That's three times we had to inbound after they made free throws with the chance of getting the ball stolen under their basket.
Click to expand...

I get this line of thinking. Every strategy has it's "what-ifs" and the fouling strategy doesn't guarantee a win. However, we fouled as the ball was being dribbled, far from the basket, so the threat of fouling a shooter was fairly minimal. The strategy of fouling on purpose near the 3pt line with under 5 seconds would have increased risk.

I recall this strategy being debated over a decade ago because the purests hated the idea. It took a lot of data to prove this is the optimal strategy. The scenario many people don't think about is the one where Orlando missing a FT and more or less ices the game that way.

I like the strategy because I like optimizing the odds of us winning, but I get why it's not for everyone.
 
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