Game Thread 2023-24 Game #28 - BLAZERS @ WARRIORS - DECEMBER 23, 2023 - SATURDAY - 5:30 PM PST - ROOT

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MickZagger said:
Box and 1, double, zone, full court press whatever…. There’s a reason teams are throwing junk at him
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No doubt...

Teams know Ant is the Blazers best offensive player/biggest threat and the roster affords them the ability to leave a guy open on the perimeter that is unlikely to beat them over 48 minutes.
 
Tince said:
No doubt...

Teams know Ant is the Blazers best offensive player/biggest threat and the roster affords them the ability to leave a guy open on the perimeter that is unlikely to beat them over 48 minutes.
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Very true. We have no one to keep them honest

And Simons shouldn’t be a number 1
 
MickZagger said:
Very true. We have no one to keep them honest

And Simons shouldn’t be a number 1
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Agreed... the fact that Simons probably shouldn't be a #1 option and yet is worthy of committing multiple defenders, shows just how far this roster has to go.
 
Tince said:
Agreed... the fact that Simons probably shouldn't be a #1 option and yet is worthy of committing multiple defenders, shows just how far this roster has to go.
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I'm hoping that Shae can grow into a true #1. He has the physical tools to impose his will on another team. He just doesn't do it.
 
There's Nate !! We missed him this game. I'll give him a quick game summary: Billups played Nate's favorite 3 guard lineups for most the entire game. The "too small" Blazers got crushed on the glass and in the paint. The good news is Anfernee hit a bunch of 3's, Scoot only shot 1 airball, and Brogdon added a bunch of stats for his trade deadline sayonara.
 
Whyachi said:
There's Nate !! We missed him this game. I'll give him a quick game summary: Billups played Nate's favorite 3 guard lineups for most the entire game. The "too small" Blazers got crushed on the glass and in the paint. The good news is Anfernee hit a bunch of 3's, Scoot only shot 1 airball, and Brogdon added a bunch of stats for his trade deadline sayonara.
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Couldn't watch this one. Did an early Christmas with some family tonight. I'll watch it later.
 
The Blazers took about the same number of shots as the Warriors (84 for the Blazers, 83 for the Warriors) , so it wasn't the rebounding (although it definitely could have been better).

It was the fact that the Warriors shot 76% (38-50) on their 2-point field goals that really killed Portland.

I am sure you can imagine what the Warrior offense looked like and the Blazer defense to get to that number.

Lots of slicing and dicing of Portland as seen in the Utah debacle.
 
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kjironman1 said:
So the Blazers still don't play defense?
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a defensive rating of 132.1 last night bumping their season average to 115.8. They now rank 19th. Over about 10 games, their ranking has dropped from 9th to 19th. In terms of a team stat, that's falling off a cliff and hopefully they'll hit bottom soon. It's not entertaining to watch the opponent have a lay-up drill, and the entertaining things about this team are already pretty limited
 
TBpup said:
They just lack the attitude and not nearly enough alpha or alpha-lite personalities.
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Blazer fans have talked for years about the need for an elite 2-way wing and how difficult it is to find one.

It might be even more difficult to find a true alpha. Since Brandon Roy's last healthy season in 2008, the Blazers have only had one true alpha: Dame. And Roy was a flawed alpha in that he could not accommodate another ball-dominant player in the lineup. Dame has proven he can. And even though it was LMA's team when Dame arrived as a rookie, it was pretty obvious even then that Dame was going to be 'the man'....and we all know that Aldridge couldn't deal with that

I suppose CJ might have been an alpha-lite, as you put it, but he looked a lot more like a beta-blocker to me. He couldn't make teammates better or ignite the team into a more aggressive posture like Dame often did. CJ was the opposite in that the team tended to stand and watch instead of joining the party

and you're right, there are no alphas or wannabe alphas on this roster. Grant might wannabe but he definitely wonteverbe
 
wizenheimer said:
a defensive rating of 132.1 last night bumping their season average to 115.8. They now rank 19th. Over about 10 games, their ranking has dropped from 9th to 19th. In terms of a team stat, that's falling off a cliff and hopefully they'll hit bottom soon. It's not entertaining to watch the opponent have a lay-up drill, and the entertaining things about this team are already pretty limited
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I’m in the “give them some time” camp.
Defense is the team part of the game. Good defense is hard work and it takes chemistry. A lot of chemistry. It also takes experience which this team lacks.
It will come my friend. Just be patient At least I keep telling myself that.
 
blazerfan11 said:
What's going on with Jerami Grant?
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kjironman1 said:
So the Blazers still don't play defense?
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Not gonna rip on Jerami too much, he's had a fantastic season. We can't expect Super Grant every contest. The Warriors are sneaky good and can make their opponents look downright silly. Steph & Klay took turns torturing Portland's defense. Jerami looked a bit fatiqued and got caught on the recieving end of excellent Warriors half-court basketball.
 
Jabari Walker was -25 in this game. The Blazers coaching staff had him waaay too far away from the hoop guarding passing lanes. "Are we blitzing? Are we switching? Oh... the Warriors dunked it again. OK, time for offense."
 
Natebishop3 said:
I'm hoping that Shae can grow into a true #1. He has the physical tools to impose his will on another
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wizenheimer said:
a defensive rating of 132.1 last night bumping their season average to 115.8. They now rank 19th. Over about 10 games, their ranking has dropped from 9th to 19th. In terms of a team stat, that's falling off a cliff and hopefully they'll hit bottom soon. It's not entertaining to watch the opponent have a lay-up drill, and the entertaining things about this team are already pretty limited
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It’s kind of coincided with Simons returning. Just saying
 
Natebishop3 said:
I'm hoping that Shae can grow into a true #1. He has the physical tools to impose his will on another team. He just doesn't do it.
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That would be awesome, but I think Ant or Scoot are far more likely to be a true #1 than Sharpe. Sharpe has all the required physical skills to be a #1 though.
 
Natebishop3 said:
A lot of things seemed to just stop over night when Simons came back.

People like to say that our competition improved so our defense fell off, but we held Indy in check and beat them. That was without Simons.
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We also held Phoenix in check with Simons (a certain someone was motivated for that game). Correlation doesn't equal causation. Dude could be defending like Marcus Smart and this defense wild still suck right now and people would still blame him based off correlation.
 
BonesJones said:
We also held Phoenix in check with Simons (a certain someone was motivated for that game). Correlation doesn't equal causation. Dude could be defending like Marcus Smart and this defense wild still suck right now and people would still blame him based off correlation.
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Ine of the biggest correlations here is Portland is now playing a lot of 3 guard lineups.
I think that has more to do with the defensive falling off than just Ant playing again.
 
CJ_is_Gone said:
Ine of the biggest correlations here is Portland is now playing a lot of 3 guard lineups.
I think that has more to do with the defensive falling off than just Ant playing again.
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If we had Shaq as a coach we’d have three center lineups.
 
BonesJones said:
We also held Phoenix in check with Simons (a certain someone was motivated for that game). Correlation doesn't equal causation. Dude could be defending like Marcus Smart and this defense wild still suck right now and people would still blame him based off correlation.
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Actually my big complaint hasn’t been his defense. It’s how everyone stands around twittling their thumbs while’s he’s adamant in out dribbling his defender and putting something highly contested up. My least favorite kind of basketball.
 
BonesJones said:
We also held Phoenix in check with Simons (a certain someone was motivated for that game). Correlation doesn't equal causation. Dude could be defending like Marcus Smart and this defense wild still suck right now and people would still blame him based off correlation.
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One game out of how many since he came back? And Phoenix bricked soooooo many shots.
 
Natebishop3 said:
One game out of how many since he came back? And Phoenix bricked soooooo many shots.
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IIRC, Portland was either 9th or 10th in DRating with a mark of 112.9 prior to Ant's return. The ratings of the subsequent games:

112.8 - @ GSW (ranked 12th on offense)
121.2 - Dallas (9th)
136.8 - @ LAC (7th)
128.6 - Utah (23rd)
126.3 - Dallas (9th)
122.4 - GSW (12th)
106.1 - Phoenix (15th)
120.1 - Washington (24th)
132.1 - @ GSW (12th)

so then, 9 games, only 3 on the road.
Prior to the 9 games a d.rating of 112.9
Average Off. Rating of opponents: 14th
Average rating in the 9 games was 121.9 (9 points worse)
Prior defensive rank: 9th. Current rank: 19th
Current D. Rating: 115.8 (2.9 points worse)
Prior net rating: -5.9; current net rating -6.8

rotation ranking in defensive rating:

Robert Williams 108
Deandre Ayton 112
Kris Murray 113
Jabari Walker 113
Matisse Thybulle 113
Duop Reath 115
Toumani Camara 116
Skylar Mays 118
Malcolm Brogdon 118
Shaedon Sharpe 118
Jerami Grant 119
Anfernee Simons 120
Scoot Henderson 120

rotation ranking in DBPM:

Matisse Thybulle 3.2
Robert Williams 2.8
Kris Murray 1.8
Toumani Camara 0.3
Duop Reath 0.1
Jabari Walker -0.1
Deandre Ayton -0.2
Malcolm Brogdon -0.5
Skylar Mays -0.6
Shaedon Sharpe -0.8
Jerami Grant -1.0
Anfernee Simons -1.5
Scoot Henderson -2.0

I agree that sometimes, correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. I'd also agree we are looking at small sample sizes; small enough that one bad game, or one good game, can shift numbers quite a bit. That's enough to maintain at least a little skepticism about the numbers

but the correlation between Ant's return and the defense getting dramatically worse is hard to ignore. And considering how predictable the two circumstances were in terms of correlation, there is almost certainly some causation at work.
 
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BonesJones said:
We also held Phoenix in check with Simons (a certain someone was motivated for that game). Correlation doesn't equal causation. Dude could be defending like Marcus Smart and this defense wild still suck right now and people would still blame him based off correlation.
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Simons looks better at defense, especially 1 on 1. Billups is experimenting with active trap defense, which coincided with Ant's return. Remember a few losses ago when Coach yelled at Ayton for playing drop instead of pressuring the perimeter?? Greaaat... now Blazer bigs are patrolling the 3 point line, leaving Blazer point guards to defend the rim.

I keep seeing Blazers sneaking over to help Anfernee on defense. Either a slow engaging trap, or a shadow drop to prevent the drives. Even crummy teams like the Wizards can easily pass around the lopsided Blazer defense. I say let Anfernee earn his paycheck, quit hedging the defense to help him out. It's not working.

Leave the Blazers bigs down by the hoop, quit horsing around with this "trap everything" concept, and let's see if we can beat those Spurs. woohoo ! GO BLAZERS !
 
CJ_is_Gone said:
Ine of the biggest correlations here is Portland is now playing a lot of 3 guard lineups.
I think that has more to do with the defensive falling off than just Ant playing again.
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Yeah, one of the reasons they need to trade Brogdon.
 
MickZagger said:
Actually my big complaint hasn’t been his defense. It’s how everyone stands around twittling their thumbs while’s he’s adamant in out dribbling his defender and putting something highly contested up. My least favorite kind of basketball.
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He's done a good job playing in the flow. You need guys that can create a bucket. The offense was dead last and he's come back and made it respectful while averaging a solidly efficient 27 & 5.

Seems like you wouldnt enjoy having Luka, SGA and a number of other guys on this team too then.
 
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