2023 NBA Draft

[KeepOnRollin]

All 3?

I know a lot of focus has been put on the Blazers lottery pick, but even if that gets traded I’m excited about that first round non-lottery pick. I think the Blazers can nab a solid prospect at that range. Lots of good potential sleepers in this draft.

People are speculating that the late first rounder from NY will go to CHI this year to pay off our debt.

I agree we are keeping at least one pick though. We have a 2nd rounder as well.

 

[Mediocre Man]

All 3?

I know a lot of focus has been put on the Blazers lottery pick, but even if that gets traded I’m excited about that first round non-lottery pick. I think the Blazers can nab a solid prospect at that range. Lots of good potential sleepers in this draft.

Yes

 

[Mediocre Man]

People are speculating that the late first rounder from NY will go to CHI this year to pay off our debt.

I agree we are keeping at least one pick though. We have a 2nd rounder as well.

Then that’s what we should talk about, no? Who do we like as a second round flier

 

[Pinwheel1]

People are speculating that the late first rounder from NY will go to CHI this year to pay off our debt.

I agree we are keeping at least one pick though. We have a 2nd rounder as well.

I would have enjoyed being a fly on the wall during practice when Badji was playing. How does he compare to the other center projects in this draft?
If he looks at least comparable then I am all for trading it to Chicago. If not, then I would rather draft a big with NY's pick.

 

[Blazinaway]

I would have enjoyed being a fly on the wall during practice when Badji was playing. How does he compare to the other center projects in this draft?
If he looks at least comparable then I am all for trading it to Chicago. If not, then I would rather draft a big with NY's pick.

Yeah, that's sorta my take as well, Badji may be seen as good or better of a prospect then let's say Derrick Lively who might be available near the 23 pick, if that is what Cronin/Schmidt think then the 23 pick could easily be gone back to Cho or elsewhere

 

[Blazinaway]

Sorry for the long winded answer but have been watching a ton of Lively and wanted to get all my thoughts out there on him.

Mobley he's not, but really love his defensive projection. He doesn't have the movement skills of Mobley, but he still moves really well his size and I think he's a better pure rim protector with better strength and physicality. Mobley has settled into more of that roaming, helpside PF that switches a good bit. Lively is more of your traditional drop/anchor 5 man.

Has the length and strength to play fairly deep in drop, but also think he's a good enough mover with good twitch and activity to play closer to the level of the screen. Pretty advanced already navigating those cat and mouse situations. Good using his hands to be disruptive and break up the rhythm of the ball handler and moves and jumps pretty well out of a backpedal.

He's getting a lot of Gafford comps but Lively is already in another stratosphere in terms of pnr technique. Gafford is too often hunched over with his hands at his side and poor at playing 2. Next to no hand activity, roller routinely gets too far behind him and late to react to it to break up the lob. Lively, at least in my viewings is already at an above average NBA level at these things.

Widely reported as one of the best and loudest communicators on Dukes team. Brian Geisinger who has a great Charlotte Hornet podcast (Buzz Beat) is also a credentialed ACC journalist and has seen that firsthand multiple times(ACC media sits courtside at Cameron). Also seems to have good comradery with his teammates both on the floor and in huddles. It shows up on film too. Impressive quality when you consider his role offensively. Was happy to do the dirty work and pick up the scraps he got on offense. I guess it was something the Duke staff had to coach out of Mark Williams, but not the case at all with Lively.

Really good screener already with is rare for young bigs. Not afraid to lay the wood and has a lot vet craft already too as you'll see him get a little wider that legal with his feet with a little shoulder lean before getting into his roll. Good awareness and quickness flipping/ changing angles on the screen. Will back up and play in the pocket if a team is trying keep pnr's on the side.

Very limited offensively outside of obvious catch and finishes. Gather+finish sequence looks a little rough at times. Doesn't seem to have the surest hands. Doesn't outright drop a lot of passes, but seems to struggle getting a clean catch and can be a little slow getting his body and feet organized to go up and finish. Miniscule usage. His teammates didn't seem to trust him enough to pass him the ball unless he was wide open.

Passing looks good for his role. Especially if he develops into a guy that can finish off a dribble or two and draw a bit more respect from the defense. Right now, if say he catches a pass on a short roll where he's 10-15 feet from the rim, it's nearly an auto pass decision for him. Made a lot of clean and quick decisions, especially later in the year, but you'd like to see him be able to make a move a finish as he matures so those passing windows get bigger and lead to more wide open shots.

But overall, I really like his value if you can get him outside of the lottery. His outcomes are too narrow for me as a limited on offense strict 5 to have him much higher than that. As it goes for all interior 5's at this point, if you aren't starting quality...it gets tough quick to even be in an NBA rotation, at least on NBA teams serious about winning.

But I like his chances to get there and think he's physically ready and good enough at the things he'll be expected to do to bring value early.

One key Q is whether Badji is equal to or greater than Lively as a prospect? I think this is where Schmidt's analysis really comes into play

 

[TBpup]

I'm not acknowledging that tall French guy from overseas. Won't look at any film or highlights. The massive reverse jinx at play here.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I would have enjoyed being a fly on the wall during practice when Badji was playing. How does he compare to the other center projects in this draft?
If he looks at least comparable then I am all for trading it to Chicago. If not, then I would rather draft a big with NY's pick.

Yeah, that's sorta my take as well, Badji may be seen as good or better of a prospect then let's say Derrick Lively who might be available near the 23 pick, if that is what Cronin/Schmidt think then the 23 pick could easily be gone back to Cho or elsewhere

Badji would only be a good prospect if he were to actually play for the Blazers, and he hasn't yet, and likely never will.

 

[blazerkor]

I don't think the second rounder will be traded. I feel like we need some depth at backup big and PG and at our second round pick there are going to be a lot of upperclassmen at both positions that could be immediately ready to help off of the bench.

I think if our first round pick lands anywhere but 1 we will trade it and I think it's a virtual certainty that we will trade the Knicks (23) in order to put a package together to get Dame an all-star who is either 1b to him or even a 1a guy that makes Dame 1b despite the fact that it will be Dame's team.

 

[illmatic99]

I'm doing more and more research and really don't see much star potential after Scoot.

What am I missing here about this draft?

If Shaedon went to UK as originally planned, I think he coulda been the 2nd or 3rd pick in this draft. Hell, he's younger than the Thompson twins and only 7 months older than Wemby.

 

[CJ_is_Gone]

I'm doing more and more research and really don't see much star potential after Scoot.

What am I missing here about this draft?

If Shaedon went to UK as originally planned, I think he coulda been the 2nd or 3rd pick in this draft. Hell, he's younger than the Thompson twins and only 7 months older than Wemby.

Agreed. I actually think this is a mediocre draft (outside of Wemby).
I'm really not even sold on Scoot.
I do like Leonard Miller as a late 1st round gamble (ie - Knicks pick), but otherwise there isn't much to be excited about with this draft class.

 

[illmatic99]

Agreed. I actually think this is a mediocre draft (outside of Wemby).
I'm really not even sold on Scoot.
I do like Leonard Miller as a late 1st round gamble (ie - Knicks pick), but otherwise there isn't much to be excited about with this draft class.

I want to see what comes out of the combine and predraft workouts. But really leaning more towards the trade strategy for our pick if it falls below 1.

 

[Shaboid]

I want to see what comes out of the combine and predraft workouts. But really leaning more towards the trade strategy for our pick if it falls below 1.

When are those? Is there anyone besides Wemby that isn't 2-3 years away like Dame has requested?

This was second try, btw. 7'5" is soooooo tall.

 

[damianlillard]

When are those? Is there anyone besides Wemby that isn't 2-3 years away like Dame has requested?

This was second try, btw. 7'5" is soooooo tall.

View attachment 55564

The combine will be on may 16-18

I think dame have had bad experience in regard to our first round picks not being ready. Collins took at least a year, Simons took 3-4 year, Sharpe is taking at least a year, little have never officially arrived, Swanigan never did much, even took CJ awhile to get going. We have been swinging at upside on guys who didn’t start in college like Collins, little, simons, and Sharpe. But this last draft showed that if you were a starter in college you are more likely to be ready. Banchero, smith, mathurin, Ivey, Murray, Sochan, duren, the Williams, Kessler, griffin, Eason, nembhard all showed that they were ready

 

[blazerkor]

I'm doing more and more research and really don't see much star potential after Scoot.

What am I missing here about this draft?

If Shaedon went to UK as originally planned, I think he coulda been the 2nd or 3rd pick in this draft. Hell, he's younger than the Thompson twins and only 7 months older than Wemby.

Shaedon would have gone higher than all of them including Scoot. He was a higher ranked recruit. So for the U.S. he was the guy and still looks like he would have been the guy. Wemby obviously would have had higher value but we got lucky that Shae was ambitious and slipped to us at 7.

I am positive that all of us are missing something about some of these guys that are going to go high and one or two of them that we don't see the star potential in will pop and then there will probably be someone who isn't high on any of these draft boards that ends up being really good to great.

 

[inconceivable]

Shaedon would have gone higher than all of them including Scoot. He was a higher ranked recruit. So for the U.S. he was the guy and still looks like he would have been the guy. Wemby obviously would have had higher value but we got lucky that Shae was ambitious and slipped to us at 7.

I am positive that all of us are missing something about some of these guys that are going to go high and one or two of them that we don't see the star potential in will pop and then there will probably be someone who isn't high on any of these draft boards that ends up being really good to great.

2022 draft was a success! We got lucky shaedon did not play for kentucky.

 

[KingSpeed]

We should draft this guy:

 

[KeepOnRollin]

We should draft this guy:

Check out the dribbling before the shot. The guy is a unicorn!

 

[STOMP]

This guy is an interesting prospect now that I’ve seen a little tape. Wow can he shoot that thang. And he moves off the ball well. My concerns for him: I barely see him put the ball on the floor. He looks like a much better finisher than Brandon Miller right now, but he also looks like he isn’t very strong. Holding off my opinions on his defense for now cause I haven’t seen any tape on that yet.

I see him graded as possibly a late lottery pick, and I’m not sure I’d draft him that high. I’d honestly rather take the risk on someone like Rayan Rupert who’s around the same size but with a 7’3 wingspan and shows signs that he can be a good shooter himself. But Gradey is interesting. He’d be a win-now kind of selection for sure.

STOMP

 

[tykendo]

I don't think the second rounder will be traded. I feel like we need some depth at backup big and PG and at our second round pick there are going to be a lot of upperclassmen at both positions that could be immediately ready to help off of the bench.

I think if our first round pick lands anywhere but 1 we will trade it and I think it's a virtual certainty that we will trade the Knicks (23) in order to put a package together to get Dame an all-star who is either 1b to him or even a 1a guy that makes Dame 1b despite the fact that it will be Dame's team.

I think giving a contract to Skylar Mays fixes the backup PG. He showed me enough against top talents that he can actually play now.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

Mentioned this in another thread but what about trading one of our young guys like Little to Chicago and we get our pick back from them. This would free up our future picks. Little is just an example maybe Keon plus 2nd rounder. Assuming there’s someone there at 23 we might like.

 

[blazerkor]

Mentioned this in another thread but what about trading one of our young guys like Little to Chicago and we get our pick back from them. This would free up our future picks. Little is just an example maybe Keon plus 2nd rounder. Assuming there’s someone there at 23 we might like.

You're acting like we owe Chicago the Knicks pick or something. If we were picking at 23 I doubt we would be doing what we promised Dame we would... if there was a guy at 23, there are a lot of other ways to convey what we owe to Chicago. If we're going through a youth rebuild we probably won't have to worry about owing Chicago the pick for a couple of years.

I'm not against trading someone we don't see as fitting in with the team's future to fulfill what we owe Chicago but the situation is very fluid and Joe has already said he has a deal in place if we need to fulfill our commitment to the Bulls in order to have access to more picks for a big deal.

 

[42N8Bounce]

The Blazers are currently sitting in the 5th position with the following odds in the lottery:
#1: 10.5%
#2: 10.5%
#3: 10.6%
#4: 10.5%
#5: 2.2%
#6: 19.6%
#7: 26.7%
#8: 8.7%
#9: 0.6%

The Blazers most likely draft position to end up with is the #7 pick. What can they expect from the #7 pick?



History tells us that the #7 pick will result in a starter 71.4% of the time, and an all-star 14.3% of the time.

We can also see that the production of the picks drops off significantly after the 5th pick. If the Blazers get the 5th pick, their odds increase to 85.7% for a starter and 42.9% for an all-star.

Looking at those odds, my take is that if the Blazer are lucky and land in the top 5, keep the pick. You don't trade away a future all-star on a rookie contract. If the Blazers land outside the top 5, trade the pick if they can get an established all-star, since the odd of that pick becoming an all-start at some point is only 14.3%.

 

[blazerkor]

The Blazers are currently sitting in the 5th position with the following odds in the lottery:
#1: 10.5%
#2: 10.5%
#3: 10.6%
#4: 10.5%
#5: 2.2%
#6: 19.6%
#7: 26.7%
#8: 8.7%
#9: 0.6%

The Blazers most likely draft position to end up with is the #7 pick. What can they expect from the #7 pick?

View attachment 55614

History tells us that the #7 pick will result in a starter 71.4% of the time, and an all-star 14.3% of the time.

We can also see that the production of the picks drops off significantly after the 5th pick. If the Blazers get the 5th pick, their odds increase to 85.7% for a starter and 42.9% for an all-star.

Looking at those odds, my take is that if the Blazer are lucky and land in the top 5, keep the pick. You don't trade away a future all-star on a rookie contract. If the Blazers land outside the top 5, trade the pick if they can get an established all-star, since the odd of that pick becoming an all-start at some point is only 14.3%.

When we look at any one pick individually the odds are actually really low that we get that specific pick. The truth is we have around a 44.3% chance of picking 5 or higher and a 55.7% chance at getting moved back. We actually have a better chance of landing a top three pick than we do specifically landing at 7. So yeah the odds are slighting against us getting a top 5 pick but only slightly.

 

[blazerfan11]

The Blazers are currently sitting in the 5th position with the following odds in the lottery:
#1: 10.5%
#2: 10.5%
#3: 10.6%
#4: 10.5%
#5: 2.2%
#6: 19.6%
#7: 26.7%
#8: 8.7%
#9: 0.6%

The Blazers most likely draft position to end up with is the #7 pick. What can they expect from the #7 pick?

View attachment 55614

History tells us that the #7 pick will result in a starter 71.4% of the time, and an all-star 14.3% of the time.

We can also see that the production of the picks drops off significantly after the 5th pick. If the Blazers get the 5th pick, their odds increase to 85.7% for a starter and 42.9% for an all-star.

Looking at those odds, my take is that if the Blazer are lucky and land in the top 5, keep the pick. You don't trade away a future all-star on a rookie contract. If the Blazers land outside the top 5, trade the pick if they can get an established all-star, since the odd of that pick becoming an all-start at some point is only 14.3%.

The last three Blazer rookies that were drafted with the 6th or 7th pick:
Shaedon Sharpe
Damian Lillard
Brandon Roy

 

[BBert]

When we look at any one pick individually the odds are actually really low that we get that specific pick. The truth is we have around a 44.3% chance of picking 5 or higher and a 55.7% chance at getting moved back. We actually have a better chance of landing a top three pick than we do specifically landing at 7. So yeah the odds are slighting against us getting a top 5 pick but only slightly.

This is how I look at it too. A 27% chance we end up at 7th, but a 32% chance of ending up with a top 3 pick, and a 42% chance of ending up with a top 4 pick. The 5th pick is basically irrelevant.

 

[illmatic99]

The Blazers are currently sitting in the 5th position with the following odds in the lottery:
#1: 10.5%
#2: 10.5%
#3: 10.6%
#4: 10.5%
#5: 2.2%
#6: 19.6%
#7: 26.7%
#8: 8.7%
#9: 0.6%

The Blazers most likely draft position to end up with is the #7 pick. What can they expect from the #7 pick?

View attachment 55614

History tells us that the #7 pick will result in a starter 71.4% of the time, and an all-star 14.3% of the time.

We can also see that the production of the picks drops off significantly after the 5th pick. If the Blazers get the 5th pick, their odds increase to 85.7% for a starter and 42.9% for an all-star.

Looking at those odds, my take is that if the Blazer are lucky and land in the top 5, keep the pick. You don't trade away a future all-star on a rookie contract. If the Blazers land outside the top 5, trade the pick if they can get an established all-star, since the odd of that pick becoming an all-start at some point is only 14.3%.

Love this kinda analysis. Well done.

Only caveat is that not all drafts are the same. In my mostly shallow dive into the players this year, I'm not seeing the kinda star potential below 2.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

The last three Blazer rookies that were drafted with the 6th or 7th pick:
Shaedon Sharpe
Damian Lillard
Brandon Roy

trade pick, odds are not good that we strike hold a 4th time

 

[blazerkor]

trade pick, odds are not good that we strike hold a 4th time

I honestly think we trade anything that isn't Wemby or Dame asks out and we start a youth rebuild.

 

[1 Eye Jack]

I honestly think we trade anything that isn't Wemby or Dame asks out and we start a youth rebuild.

I agree and am ok with it. I’d rather restart then trade away a top pick for a marginal improvement.