Event 2025 NBA DRAFT LOTTERY, COMBINE, AND DRAFT

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Kell said:
A toolsy big guard wouldn’t be a bad thing, that Demin kids about 6’ 8” right and looks to have solid ability in the passing game? How is his defense, shooting? Haven’t watched any college ball this year to see live game action.
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He just turned 19. His 3-point shooting stats are bad, but his form looks fine. He should be able to improve.

An executive on Igor Demin: “His passing is next-level. Worst-case scenario, he’s a more athletic Josh Giddey, that’s literally his floor because his passing is just that good. He’s almost 6-foot-10 and comes from playing pro ball with Real Madrid. Well, the shot hasn’t been there, outside of shooting, the biggest issue is that Igor hasn’t proven he’s a consistent scorer.”

 
inconceivable said:
Are we licked in at 9th? If we win and suns lose tomorrow, we end with same record
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We have a share of 9th locked in. If we win and the Suns lose tomorrow then we have to share the 9/10 odds with them and there will be a "coin flip" to decide who gets 9 and who gets 10 if neither team moves up. So at least we've secured that. I think both us and the Suns will lose tomorrow. Regardless, after tomorrow the Suns spot turns into the Rockets lotto spot.
 
blazerkor said:
We have a share of 9th locked in. If we win and the Suns lose tomorrow then we have to share the 9/10 odds with them and there will be a "coin flip" to decide who gets 9 and who gets 10 if neither team moves up. So at least we've secured that. I think both us and the Suns will lose tomorrow. Regardless, after tomorrow the Suns spot turns into the Rockets lotto spot.
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So the normal tie-breakers do not apply?
 
Pinwheel1 said:
He just turned 19. His 3-point shooting stats are bad, but his form looks fine. He should be able to improve.

An executive on Igor Demin: “His passing is next-level. Worst-case scenario, he’s a more athletic Josh Giddey, that’s literally his floor because his passing is just that good. He’s almost 6-foot-10 and comes from playing pro ball with Real Madrid. Well, the shot hasn’t been there, outside of shooting, the biggest issue is that Igor hasn’t proven he’s a consistent scorer.”

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He will always play smaller than his height (look at that long, useless neck), but if his hands are as good as they say, you play him at a lanky wing position and enjoy the show.

They should be measuring players at the shoulder. That's a better comparison for height than top of the head. Zach Randolph played big for 6'9" because he had a little ninja turtle head and no neck. Meyers Leonard played small for 7'1" because he had a giraffe neck and long Frankenstein head.
 
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Everything Beagle said:
He will always play smaller than his height (look at that long, useless neck), but if his hands are as good as they say, you play him at a lanky wing position and enjoy the show.

They should be measuring players at the shoulder. That's a better comparison for height than top of the head. Zach Randolph played big for 6'9" because he had a little ninja turtle head and no neck. Meyers Leonard played small for 7'1" because he had a giraffe neck and long Frankenstein head.
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If the guy really does have a 7-foot wingspan, I am not sure he will always play smaller than his height. You could see in that video that his long arms created a few deflections.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/4/...-2024-nba-draft-lottery-order-tiebreaker-draw
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boss-gatsby.gif
 
Tankathon put the Blazerd at 10 so many times there just is no way they get top 4 anything.
 
kjironman1 said:
Tankathon put the Blazerd at 10 so many times there just is no way they get top 4 anything.
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I don't understand what this means.

Tankathon and the NBA more importantly give us a little over a 1 in 5 chance of moving into the top 4 if we stay in the 9th spot like we currently are by losing to the Lakers tomorrow.

It doesn't matter how many times anyone runs the lotto simulators, we'll still have a better than 1 in 5 chance of moving up. Obviously that means we'll likely end up in the 9th spot since there's better than a 1 in 2 chance that we'll stay there but there are many different ways due to how the lotto is set up for our team to move up to the top 4.
 
Everything Beagle said:
He will always play smaller than his height (look at that long, useless neck), but if his hands are as good as they say, you play him at a lanky wing position and enjoy the show.

They should be measuring players at the shoulder. That's a better comparison for height than top of the head. Zach Randolph played big for 6'9" because he had a little ninja turtle head and no neck. Meyers Leonard played small for 7'1" because he had a giraffe neck and long Frankenstein head.
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I don't know how much you've watched Demin. I've watched a lot of him this season. I don't think he plays small for his height at all. He routinely took smaller defenders into the paint and shot a nice little fallaway jumper over them that they had no chance of defending. On defense, he blocked shots. He's already well put together and a strong kid.

From what I've seen, the only thing keeping him out of the top four in this draft class is his shot. The form is fine. The results aren't. But his passing is next level, and I think that's really important and is getting overlooked, that he will make his teammates better because if they are open, he will get them the ball and if they can make shots, the team will thrive with a distributor like him.

I think everything other than his shot plays well. His passing is something special, though. I agree with Giddey being his floor.
 
I don't know if anyone is watching the Hoop Summit, but I think it's showing why I think next year's draft will be better than this year's, and Peterson, who might be the top prospect, isn't even there.

Dybantsa is just an amazing talent. He's so explosive and strong and carries the weight so well. Cameron Boozer is more athletic than I expected and looks a lot like Banchero but maybe with more savvy. For the World team, Sarr and Tounde Yessoufou have helped their stock.

BTW, Ariza's kid looks good, too, but he's still got another year of HS.
 
blazerkor said:
I don't understand what this means.

Tankathon and the NBA more importantly give us a little over a 1 in 5 chance of moving into the top 4 if we stay in the 9th spot like we currently are by losing to the Lakers tomorrow.

It doesn't matter how many times anyone runs the lotto simulators, we'll still have a better than 1 in 5 chance of moving up. Obviously that means we'll likely end up in the 9th spot since there's better than a 1 in 2 chance that we'll stay there but there are many different ways due to how the lotto is set up for our team to move up to the top 4.
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If one of the teams slotted at 10-14 jump up in the lotto to 1-4 -> then Blazers at #9 DROP down to #10

Im thinking this is what he was referring to
 
blazerkor said:
I don't understand what this means.
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If any team jumps up that is slotted behind the Blazers they drop. 1 in 5 is 20%.
First 5 spins today 10,10,11,9,10

The 9th position is notoriously bad.

Alternatively San Antonio who the Blazers foolishly beat last week. First 5 spins from the 8th position.

1,4,8,9,8

Go to tankathon and spin it until you get Portland in the #1 spot. While you are at it count how many times SA gets it.
 
kjironman1 said:
If any team jumps up that is slotted behind the Blazers they drop. 1 in 5 is 20%.
First 5 spins today 10,10,11,9,10

The 9th position is notoriously bad.

Alternatively San Antonio who the Blazers foolishly beat last week. First 5 spins from the 8th position.

1,4,8,9,8

Go to tankathon and spin it until you get Portland in the #1 spot. While you are at it count how many times SA gets it.
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I don't know why you said 1 in 5 is 20%. We have the numbers. We move into the top four 20.2 percent of the time... those are just the numbers. You're right that we move back 29% of the time and we stay at ninth 50.7% of the time with that last 0.1% being split up into minute fractions across all nine positions we could possibly end up in.

Clicking a randomiser a bunch of times and reporting your anecdotal data doesn't change the actual odds. You're damn right that the 8th spot has better odds. I was furious throughout that win streak before the deadline, furious about our inactivity to more fully commit to the rebuild at the deadline and furious about every win since the deadline... it's been a shit show, terribly managed wherever those decisions came from.

I'd love to be in the 8th slot, the 7th slot, the 6th slot or even the 5th slot. Before the pre deadline win streak all of those slots were very realistic. It is a shame that we're as far back in the lotto as we are

However, you just said the 9th position is notoriously bad. Last season the Nets landed the third pick with it. The current format started in 2019. This is how the ninth slot in the lotto has fared in the current format: 2019 picked 10th, 2020 picked 9th, 2021 picked 9th, 2022 picked 9th, 2023 picked 9th and 2024 picked 3rd. During this format the average draft position for the ninth lotto slot has been a fraction better than 8.17... that's a higher average pick than 9th, so how can it be seen as bad let alone notoriously so?
 
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blazerkor said:
I don't know why you said 1 in 5 is 20%. We have the numbers. We move into the top four 20.2 percent of the time... those are just the numbers. You're right that we move back 29% of the time and we stay at ninth 50.7% of the time with that last 0.1% being split up into minute fractions across all nine positions we could possibly end up in.

Clicking a randomiser a bunch of times and reporting your anecdotal data doesn't change the actual odds. You're damn right that the 8th spot has better odds. I was furious throughout that win streak before the deadline, furious about our inactivity to more fully commit to the rebuild at the deadline and furious about every win since the deadline... it's been a shit show, terribly managed wherever those decisions came from.

I'd love to be in the 8th slot, the 7th slot, the 6th slot or even the 5th slot. Before the pre deadline win streak all of those slots were very realistic. It is a shame that we're as far back in the lotto as we are

However, you just said the 9th position is notoriously bad. Last season the Nets landed the third pick with it. The current format started in 2019. This is how the ninth slot in the lotto has faired in the current format: 2019 picked 10th, 2020 picked 9th, 2021 picked 9th, 2022 picked 9th, 2023 picked 9th and 2024 picked 3rd. During this format the average draft position for the ninth lotto slot has been a fraction better than 8.17... that's a higher average pick than 9th, so how can it be seen as bad let alone notoriously so?
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Go ahead and spin the big prize wheel 5 times and see what you get.
 
kjironman1 said:
Go ahead and spin the big prize wheel 5 times and see what you get.
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It's anecdotal so it doesn't count for anything but here you go: 10, 2, 9, 9, 9. That seems pretty lucky on my part so I'm going to hit that button 5 more times: 9, 9, 9, 9, 9.

So there you have it but that 2 doesn't mean a damn thing because it's anecdotal and in small sets of anecdotal data a statistical anomaly unfairly skews perspective. I get it that spinning that wheel is addictive, it's designed that way because a variable ratio schedule is the most addictive type of scheduled reinforcement. Why does virtually every fan of every team in the lotto, even the 14th slot, tune in... because variable ratio is a complete mind fuck. People go broke on slot machines every day.

The fact is it's going to be 9 more than 50% of the time... just a little more but still every time you spin it you have better than a coin flip chance of it being 9. It's not the position I wanted, it's not the position we needed but let's not overly dramatize it, it's a position in which you are very likely to pick in the position you deserve.
 
28 more days until the lottery. It's gonna feel like an eternity
 
Does anyone know why Tankathon has us at slightly less chance than Phoenix to move up?
 
CJ_is_Gone said:
If one of the teams slotted at 10-14 jump up in the lotto to 1-4 -> then Blazers at #9 DROP down to #10

Im thinking this is what he was referring to
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I think whether Portland picks before Phoenix or after them, if neither team jumps into the top four, is decided on the day of the lottery.
 
Phatguysrule said:
It makes no logical sense. Unless you've got your foot on the scale...
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you can watch it on YouTube.
When the actual lottery is conducted the first pick is picked first and then 2,3,4 picks after that.

I agree with the NBA that it is much more exciting to reveal the 1-14 picks starting from the 14th moving up to the first pick. so I would not change how they are doing it.

 
blazerfan11 said:
you can watch it on YouTube.
When the actual lottery is conducted the first pick is picked first and then 2,3,4 picks after that.

I agree with the NBA that it is much more exciting to reveal the 1-14 picks starting from the 14th moving up to the first pick. so I would not change how they are doing it.

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As long as it's not behind closed doors (it's witnessed) I'm good with it.
 
Not saying Ace will be a similar level player but interesting nonetheless...

Ace Bailey (18.9 Draft Age) vs Jayson Tatum (19.3 Draft Age) vs Top 50 Teams

Ace Bailey (17 Games)
PRPG: 4.8 (Bart Torvik's points over replacement stat)
BPM: 6.8 BPM (5.6 OBPM / 0.8 DBPM)
USG: 26.9%
EFG: 51.3%
TS: 54.1%
OR: 7.0%
DR: 17.3%
AST: 9.0%
TO: 12.4%
BLK: 4.3%
STL: 1.7%
FTR: 22.3%
2P: 50.6% (91-180)
3P: 35.3% (30-85)
DUNKS: 11-13

Jayson Tatum (19 Games)
PRPG: 4.7
BPM: 5.8 (4.1 OBPM / 1.8 DBPM)
USG: 26.0%
EFG: 52.0%
TS: 57.9%
OR: 3.9%
DR: 18.7%
AST: 12.0%
TO: 18.7%
BLK: 1.6%
STL: 1.7%
FTR: 37.7%
2P: 50.9% (85-167)
3P: 36.2% (29-80)
DUNKS: 14-15
 
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