A prediction that nobody will second

[Rastapopoulos]

We're going to miss Steve Blake.

Okay, not actually in the sense of wishing he came back, but we're going to be bitching a lot about wildly inconsistent guard play and getting torched by every single halfway decent PG. We don't have a single PG who can play defense worth a damn any more, and every PG (except possibly Mills, but we'll never know) left is very turnover-prone. I would feel a lot happier if Pritchard could turn Martell Webster into a lockdown guard defender who can bring the ball upcourt against pressure before the trade deadline.

 

[Wheels]

who do you have in mind?

 

[drexlersdad]

umm jerryd can play better defense me thinks. also, probably about the same as a spot up shooter. he is better at most other things.

 

[hasoos]

WTF are you talking about. Bayless has been a better defender than Blake since he put on an NBA uniform.

 

[Nikolokolus]

WTF are you talking about. Bayless has been a better defender than Blake since he put on an NBA uniform.

Better at staying with his man maybe, but Jerryd's understanding of team defense has been pretty up and down, and he fouls a ton. He's got decent physical potential (short arms aside) but he's not there yet.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

WTF are you talking about. Bayless has been a better defender than Blake since he put on an NBA uniform.

No he hasn't. He should be, but he isn't.

 

[craigehlo]

I'm a bit worried about giving Bayless the backup spot. I haven't seen a lot this season to think he's anything but an undersized SG.

 

[Ed O]

Yeah I don't think that Blake is a particularly effective defender, and I think that Bayless has potential on that front in spite of alligator arms.

Their defensive ratings (110 for Blake, 111 for Bayless) are almost identical.

I won't miss Blake at all...

Ed O.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

who do you have in mind?

That's the problem. Who are the good backcourt defenders these days? The Eric Snows of yesteryear. (And I mean someone like Snow who plays fundamental defense rather than someone like Rajon Rondo who looks flashy but gambles a lot.)

Does Lindsey Hunter even play in the NBA any more? I wouldn't mind renting him for the rest of the year, just for spot duty.

 

[andalusian]

Bayless is a better individual defender, no doubts - but not as good a team defender in my opinion.

I think Blake was underrated by many here - but the need just made this deal very very reasonable. With Roy coming back soon (hopefully) - we can get by with 2 good ball handlers and JB. Giving consistent time to JB is not that bad as well. If he works - great, if not - well, there is knowledge there as well and less of a question mark.

If we fizzle down the stretch expect fireworks this upcoming draft day with 2 larger expiring contracts (Miller, Joel).

Again - I think that Blake is a much better player than people think and the constant bitching about him is absurd - but the circumstances made trading him the right decision, generally speaking.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm a bit worried about giving Bayless the backup spot. I haven't seen a lot this season to think he's anything but an undersized SG.

Well, he has been asked to play shooting guard a ton with Brandon hobbled.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Their defensive ratings (110 for Blake, 111 for Bayless) are almost identical.

How is that calculated?

 

[hasoos]

No he hasn't. He should be, but he isn't.

Yea that is why when Tony Parker was going off on the Blazers recently Bayless came in and put an end to it. Amazingly enough it started again when Blake came back in the game in the second half, and it ended again, when Bayless was brought back in. This has happened repeatedly this season. There was a reason our bigs were always in foul trouble. It's name was Blake.

 

[Nikolokolus]

How is that calculated?

With voodoo.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Bayless is a better individual defender, no doubts - but not as good a team defender in my opinion.

Really? I have doubts. He plays the part - gets into a stance, moves fairly quickly - but I've never noticed much effect unless he actually fouls (which he does a lot.) It was particularly glaring in the last game, when Blake was a much better individual and team defender - and he was defending Steve Nash.

I think Blake was underrated by many here

Y'think?

Again - I think that Blake is a much better player than people think and the constant bitching about him is absurd - but the circumstances made trading him the right decision, generally speaking.

Fair enough.

 

[Ed O]

How is that calculated?

I think it looks at the time a player is on the floor, using the number of points allowed divided by the number of opponents' possessions normalized to 100. Not sure, but I believe that is what it is.

Oden's is 100. Joel's is 102. I miss them.

Camby's so far this year? 100.



Ed O.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yea that is why when Tony Parker was going off on the Blazers recently Bayless came in and put an end to it. Amazingly enough it started again when Blake came back in the game in the second half, and it ended again, when Bayless was brought back in. This has happened repeatedly this season. There was a reason our bigs were always in foul trouble. It's name was Blake.

Ridiculous. Yes, Blake would have trouble with very quick players. But if you're asking me to believe that Bayless can actually guard Tony Parker worth a damn, you'll have to provide video evidence. And what about the Phoenix game, and the OKC game, where amazingly enough the Blazers went on runs with Blake in the game, and got outscored massively with Bayless in?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I think it looks at the time a player is on the floor, using the number of points allowed divided by the number of opponents' possessions normalized to 100. Not sure, but I believe that is what it is.

Ooh, sounds a bit +/- ish. I thought you were a PER man?

And according to adjusted +/-, Blake has a better score than Camby:

In Impact rating Blake has been great: ninth in League. Camby is 80th. Past two years Blake averaged +3 adjusted plus/minus and Camby +2.

Outlaw averaged -1 adjusted plus/minus last two years.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Well, he has been asked to play shooting guard a ton with Brandon hobbled.

Hmm. I think that had less to do with Brandon being hobbled and more to do with him being much more suited to SG.

 

[andalusian]

How is that calculated?

Defensive rating is the number of points per 100 possessions the other team scores when the player is on the court. Of course, since Blake and Bayless have been playing a lot together this year in the 2nd unit - it only makes sense that their defensive rating is similar.

On the other hand, if you look at individual on/off stats from 82games.com - it seems that the the Blazers lose more (defensively) when Bayless is on the court than they do when Blake is on the court (neither is a good defender, however). (They calculate it per 48 minutes).

So, overall, I think it is pretty clear that Blake's better team defense trumps Bayless's better individual defense, at least in this stage of their career.

 

[LittleAlex]

I might miss him for a second, then I will remember back to all the times Blake ran the ball up the floor only to stop at the 3 point line and dribble for 10 seconds.

Then I will get a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing I don't have to see that in a Blazer uni again this season.


Bayless may make mistakes. He may get in foul trouble and occationally lose his man.


But he isn't ever going to be as painful to watch as Blake was.

 

[craigehlo]

I might miss him for a second, then I will remember back to all the times Blake ran the ball up the floor only to stop at the 3 point line and dribble for 10 seconds.

That's exactly what I thought. I missed him then had flashbacks to him killing every fastbreak he was involved in.

 

[Boob-No-More]

and every PG (except possibly Mills, but we'll never know) left is very turnover-prone.

Sorry to inject a bit of reality into your rant, but Blake was the most TO prone PG on our roster this season. He had a TOV% of 15.0%. Miller is at 14.9%, Mills is at 14.5% (small sample size), Bayless is at 11.8%, Roy is at 10.1%.

In fact, Rudy is the only guard on our roster this season with a higher TOV% than Blake.

Given that Blake almost NEVER penetrates and gets called for an offensive foul (which is considered a TO), he was throwing the ball away at an alarming rate - especially given that his AST% (22.6%) was also considerably lower than Miller (29.9%) and Roy (24.6%) and barely better than Bayless (21.6%) - who gets called for a lot more offensive fouls.

I get that you miss Blake and didn't want him traded, but your objectiveity seems to be clouding the facts.

BNM

 

[drexlersdad]

Ooh, sounds a bit +/- ish. I thought you were a PER man?

And according to adjusted +/-, Blake has a better score than Camby:

i like winston, but crunch time/impact rating? nearly ALL of that is contributed to Broy id guess.

I like this trade for both teams because Blake knows how to win games (good impact) and Clippers need that.

not really sure where this is coming from, maybe he really IS great at defense and nobody ever noticed?

blake could get hot from 3, not sure if bayless can yet. but what i DO know is bayless will get to the line 6.7 more times and will make 5.5 MORE free throws per 36 minutes.

 

[bigbailes]

having a defender like camby will help out all of our guards. it will be nice to have an "eraser" in the paint again.

 

[Boob-No-More]

but what i DO know is bayless will get to the line 6.7 more times and will make 5.5 MORE free throws per 36 minutes.

The ability to get the other team in foul trouble, and your team shooting the bonus is a very under appreciated skill.

This same ability, to draw fouls and score with the clock stopped, is very critical when coming from behind late in the game. Roy is very good at it (6.3 FTA/36). Bayless is even better (7.5 FTA/36). Miller is also excellent in this regard (5.5 FTA/36). Blake is beyond pathetic at getting to the line (0.8 FTA/36).

And, once they get there, Bayless (0.812), Miller (0.812) and Roy (0.792) all shoot a higher percentage than Blake (0.750).

Yeah, hitting a late game 3 is big, but getting to the line has a much higher success rate (1.60 PTS/Possession for an 0.800 FT shooter vs. 1.13 PTS/Possession for a 0.377 3FG% shooter). And has the added bonus of stopping the clock and getting the other team's players in foul trouble.

BNM

 

[The Other Guys]

Did you guys hear? We just got this guy who can help make up for when we play poor defense and stop teams from just walking into the paint. I liked Blake, but I'm glad that we just gained a legit center and lost the guy who loved to air ball in the Playoffs.

 

[RISE WITH IT]

I think Bayless will be a perfect backup pg once Roy comes back. Roy liked playing the point even when he played with Blake. In the half court set Bayless will mostly play off the ball, so I think it will work out nicely, for the rest of this season at least.