Accept Miami Deal or bring Lillard to Camp?

[wizenheimer]

It's a guarantee one of the 2025 or 2027 swaps would convey; Blazers can't lose both picks to Chicago.

no it's not guaranteed and the claim ignores reality.

for one thing, the encumbrance is till 2028. It's easy to imagine the Blazers not being in the playoffs at any time over the next 4 seasons. Meaning, the only pick Portland would have to swap is a lottery pick...which they almost certainly wouldn't swap

in my view, people talking about 2025-2027 swaps are trying to persuade others that some of these fantasy trades are better than they actually are. PDX/Miami swaps in the 2025-27 seasons are essentially worthless window dressing

 

[Strenuus]

If my math serves me correct this is day 75 of the trade request. (July 1st).

The more it stalls out the more other teams will field offers (and if dame is set on continuing to fuck the blazers because of one team, his legacy tarnishes even further).

So fuck Miami. Hold out. Dame is under contract with the TEAM, not himself.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

no it's not guaranteed and the claim ignores reality.

for one thing, the encumbrance is till 2028. It's easy to imagine the Blazers not being in the playoffs at any time over the next 4 seasons. Meaning, the only pick Portland would have to swap is a lottery pick...which they almost certainly wouldn't swap

in my view, people talking about 2025-2027 swaps are trying to persuade others that some of these fantasy trades are better than they actually are. PDX/Miami swaps in the 2025-27 seasons are essentially worthless window dressing

Blazers would swap the pick if it was higher than Heat's - doesn't matter if its in the lottery or not.

Encumbrance yes applies to 2028, but it can only apply to a single year that's why it can't apply to BOTH 2025 and 2027. Pick swap encumbrance is not a stephen restriction, its only if the pick is elsewhere (with Chicago) which can only happen for a single year.

Maybe you value the pick swap far less than me. Maybe I value it much more than you. Plenty of room to agree to disagree. I put a ton of stock into the draft equity from Miami and yes the swaps would be a significant part of that. I put very little stock into all players named in Dame rumors outside Scottie Barnes. There is no elaborate scheme to persuade posters to my fantasies LMAO. They're just my opinions of NBA trade assets worth. I could care less what posters here are or aren't persuaded with trade ideas, tons of posters believe all sorts of ridiculous ideas and others have great ideas.

NBA front offices obviously value pick swaps or we wouldn't have seen the Suns able to acquire future picks for a swaps of an already agreed to lesser swap.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

This is how I'd value the assets from Miami ranked from most to least valuable:

2030 unprotected pick
2028 unprotected pick
2029 swap
2027 swap
Martin
Herro
Jovic
2024 unprotected pick
Jaquez
2025 swap
2nd rounder

 

[SharpesTriumph]

The Phx 2029 and 2027 picks that Brooklyn has would be ranked up at the top with those top two Miami picks, maybe above both. Thats why I think its pretty unrealistic to get Brooklyn giving up much if any of that in a Herro 3 way. Simmons deal isn't that bad, it expires next season and they aren't likely trying to contend this year anyways.

 

[inconceivable]

Herro, Lowry, Jaquez, Jovic, 2 picks, 2 swaps for Dame, Nurk

Should be countered with

Ant, Nas, Kris, Rayan, 2 picks, 2 swaps for Bam, Caleb

 

[wizenheimer]

Blazers would swap the pick if it was higher than Heat's - doesn't matter if its in the lottery or not..

obviously, but if Dame is in Miami, what are the chances Miami has a higher draft pick over the next 4 seasons? 5%? 3%? 1%

This is how I'd value the assets from Miami ranked from most to least valuable:

2030 unprotected pick
2028 unprotected pick
2029 swap
2027 swap
Martin
Herro
Jovic
2024 unprotected pick
Jaquez
2025 swap
2nd rounder

I'd agree with the first 3 on the list, after that...meh; and that's being generous. A 2nd round pick is probably worth more than those earlier swaps

besides that, I'm fairly convinced that Riley is demanding protections on at least one of those picks, maybe both

 

[Pinwheel1]

This is how I'd value the assets from Miami ranked from most to least valuable:

2030 unprotected pick
2028 unprotected pick
2029 swap
2027 swap
Martin
Herro
Jovic
2024 unprotected pick
Jaquez
2025 swap
2nd rounder

Martin is a decent player, and yes he looked good in the playoffs, but much like past Spurs or Warrior players who left, I am very leery of Heat players having the same defensive success for other teams. I mean the guy had a career year last year and still only averaged 9.6 ppg, 1 steal, 4.8 rbs, 1.6 assists.

The others might turn out to be worse.....but I would still value them higher than a guy who is a UFA next year. IMHO most of us are undervaluing Jaquez because he played all 4 years at UCLA. I see him as another Matt Barnes-type player on D.....but better on offense.

 

[James lamphear]

I been watching some of the games last year and seriously I don't think Miami is probably saying we can take or leave getting Dame. To me Dame doesn't really fit in Miami structure. Miami offense is about movement and actually running a offense. If Dame don't have the ball he show little movement at all. Plus how many times Miami going take for Dame come over half and shoot the ball from the Lego and brinks it yes at times he makes it but he also brink a lot of those too. Now talk about defense Dame actually ball watch more the he actually plays defense and plus I don't know how many times he is on the low box and just stand in one place that surely not how Miami plays defense. Thing I am telling Dame is not Miami type player. Yes Dame can score but at times he shoot out of games when he going 1-11 at the 3 point line. Plus at times I see Dame calls his number 7 straight times without no or little ball movement. I really don't think Butler or Bam going really appreciate him doing that while there on floor. Now just maybe Riley also see this and maybe that's the reason there not going up any offer to get Dame. So I see Dame will be back Portland at least the start or longer or until adds teams for a trade if he actually wants to leave Portland I can feel he don't want to leave as it seems maybe that the reason he target Miami the only team he wants to go to because he probably knows they probably couldn't come up with a good enough package to get him. Because it they did he would be already traded to Miami.

 

[inconceivable]

If Miami's current offer is Herro, Jaquez, Jovic along with their FRPs in 2024, 28 and 30 plus a swap or swaps then I don't think Dame or his camp would want the Heat to give up more. I think any other pieces for instance Martin, hurts Dame's chances at a chip.

I don't know if the Heat have offered all of that at this time but it's possible they could be offering it and Joe is saying that's not enough we need Martin too and in that case I really doubt Dame's camp would be pressuring the Heat to give into Cronin's demand. Herro or whatever he would bring from a third team, Martin or his return from a third or fourth team, Jovic, Jaquez and three unprotected firsts one of which would almost be guaranteed to be late in the first round probably isn't even fair value for Dame considering what we already have seen Durant go for (adjusting for the fact that Durant is obviously the superior player) and what we saw the Jazz get for lesser players even if they are younger.

I guess what I'm saying is maybe Joe is just holding really firm and saying if you're not giving me Jimmy or Bam, I'm taking everything else that isn't nailed down because we won't be getting fair value, so I'm not budging. It's also possible that Miami is really really low balling us holding out on doing what it takes to regain trade access to the 2024 FRP and/or trying to make us choose between their underwhelming prospects (Jaquez and Jovic) and Joe would take the offer I laid out in the first sentence of this post. Who the fuck knows?

What you mentioned is for Dame and Nurk, not just Dame. At least that was the rumor tgis past weekend

 

[BankTeller]

Reminder to all on what the Jazz got for Mitchell:
- Markennan
- Sexton
- Ogbaji (R)
- unprotected 1sts in ‘25, ‘27, ‘29
- swaps in ‘26 and ‘28

I don’t care about the five year age difference, the huge gap in talent between Markannen/Sexton/Ogbaji and Jovic/Jaquez/crap from a Herro trade would even be too ridiculous for Dame to imagine.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Martin is a decent player, and yes he looked good in the playoffs, but much like past Spurs or Warrior players who left, I am very leery of Heat players having the same defensive success for other teams. I mean the guy had a career year last year and still only averaged 9.6 ppg, 1 steal, 4.8 rbs, 1.6 assists.

The others might turn out to be worse.....but I would still value them higher than a guy who is a UFA next year. IMHO most of us are undervaluing Jaquez because he played all 4 years at UCLA. I see him as another Matt Barnes-type player on D.....but better on offense.

I thought Martin was on a cheap deal for all of next season too? I thought of him more for trade value to flip later than what he would provide to a rebuilding Blazers (not much).

 

[Pinwheel1]

I thought Martin was on a cheap deal for all of next season too? I thought of him more for trade value to flip later than what he would provide to a rebuilding Blazers (not much).

I am pretty sure he has a player option next summer. (7 million) it seems likely he would opt out of that.

 

[KingSpeed]

Ha Ha Ha? Nurk ABUSED Steven Adams???
You actually wrote that?
Finding a game here and there where Nurk played well is easily offset by the multitude of games he sucked. This is much like making a highlight package that makes a player look like an All-Star.
We have all watched him for years now. I certainly know better. You should also. I find it humorous that you show one highlight package that has him making what you call a great pass to Lillard and then follow it up with "When Lillard wasn't around to save the day". Makes it sound like you feel Lillard has been holding him back. I wonder if i could build a highlight package of Nurk blunders? How tough would that be?

Find the multitude of games he sucked. I mean come on, Nurk isn’t even the softest center on our team. He’s probably a Top 20 center in the NBA.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Nurk is 32nd in PER. Not sure he’s good enough defensively to get him into the top 20

 

[BigGameDamian]

 

[blazerkor]

Thanks Woj. Dude carries our water pretty damn well. The message to Pat Riley, "The Blazers can ride this out motherfucker, can you?"

 

[Strenuus]

Find the multitude of games he sucked. I mean come on, Nurk isn’t even the softest center on our team. He’s probably a Top 20 center in the NBA.

So someone could say he's a below average C and you couldn't argue because if he's 19th he's still in the top 20! Lol

 

[Driew]

Thanks Woj. Dude carries our water pretty damn well. The message to Pat Riley, "The Blazers can ride this out motherfucker, can you?"

Pat Riley has no issue waiting--he waited on Jimmy Butler when the Timberwolves were asking for too much. Granted Butler was on an expiring contract but still haha.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Pat Riley has no issue waiting--he waited on Jimmy Butler when the Timberwolves were asking for too much. Granted Butler was on an expiring contract but still haha.

Butler was traded from Minnesota to Philly.

 

[Driew]

Butler was traded from Minnesota to Philly.

Correct but Pat initially tried to trade for Jimmy and Jimmy said he wanted to go to Miami. Then after the season signed with Miami via a sign and trade anyways.

 

[Whyachi]

Butler was traded from Minnesota to Philly.

The Sixers are a joke. What's worse is their fans. Philadelphia has taken it upon themselves to compete for the worst NBA fans with Boston and Los Angeles.

Laker fans almost became the most timid of the bunch, until somebody gave Shannon Sharpe a couple lines of coke, and he tried to beat up the entire Memphis Grizzlies team.

 

[inconceivable]

Is Caleb Martin the Hedo Turkoglu of 2023?

 

[kjironman1]

Find the multitude of games he sucked. I mean come on, Nurk isn’t even the softest center on our team. He’s probably a Top 20 center in the NBA.

Took me less than 30 seconds to find "10 anti basketball moments by Jusef Nurkic". Got to admit watching Beasley push him around was comical. Watching Melo destroy him was pretty good as well.
There is a block in there on Giannis that i think he got a bad rap on. Looked pretty clean. The rest was him laying on the floor when he went flopping around holding his face like he does at least 3 times a game. Dude seems to lead with his nose?
Now just think if I actually put some work into it?
Now that is just one season.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Took me less than 30 seconds to find "10 anti basketball moments by Jusef Nurkic". Got to admit watching Beasley push him around was comical. Watching Melo destroy him was pretty good as well.
There is a block in there on Giannis that i think he got a bad rap on. Looked pretty clean. The rest was him laying on the floor when he went flopping around holding his face like he does at least 3 times a game. Dude seems to lead with his nose?
Now just think if I actually put some work into it?
Now that is just one season.

How about you show the clips of the Blazers playing Jerami Grant or Trenton Watford at center?

 

[e_blazer]

Pat Riley has no issue waiting--he waited on Jimmy Butler when the Timberwolves were asking for too much. Granted Butler was on an expiring contract but still haha.

Jimmy was 30 when he was traded to the Heat. He’s 34 now and Dame is 33. Trading for Dame opens maybe a two year championship window. Waiting and falling behind in the standings in the first part of the season isn’t a good strategy.

 

[kjironman1]

How about you show the clips of the Blazers playing Jerami Grant or Trenton Watford at center?

I don’t think that would be good either but nobody would say Watford was soft and I don’t think Grant complains to the refs nearly as much. We all know Grant can at least make a layup.

 

[STOMP]

And that logic is the same logic that values 1st round picks. They might develop into good players, but most amount to jack squat. Especially lower ones we'd likly be getting from a team that gets Dame.

The hypothetical trade in this thread is to Miami with 1st round picks or pick swaps running 2027-30. By 2o27 Dame will be 37 to start the season while Butler will be 38... it's likely one or both will be retired and very unlikely they'll be nearly the players they are today. It's likely any team acquiring Lillard will have both emptied the cupboards of assets and not replenished them much via the draft so they'd take a real dip when Dame Time is up. When it is, those next picks could be really low, like single digit lotto level low.

Regardless of whether a deal is made with Miami or others, I agree with you about the questionable value of 1st rounders from that team in the next couple years. Picks after 2025 are where I'd target both to attain the likely better asset and to better pair with Portland's timeline.

STOMP

 

[Propagandist]

Took me less than 30 seconds to find "10 anti basketball moments by Jusef Nurkic". Got to admit watching Beasley push him around was comical. Watching Melo destroy him was pretty good as well.
There is a block in there on Giannis that i think he got a bad rap on. Looked pretty clean. The rest was him laying on the floor when he went flopping around holding his face like he does at least 3 times a game. Dude seems to lead with his nose?
Now just think if I actually put some work into it?
Now that is just one season.

Seems like you're not a Nurk fan.

 

[julius]

If they make a trade with a team, and the major haul is 1st round picks, they sure as hell better not have any protections on anybody them.