All In? Or Trust the Process?

[cmeese47]

Hey All,

It's been awhile. I cannot say that I missed you but I figured it might be time to try this again. As stated in the title, I am curious which direction you think the team should go. Personally, I think this is a matter of perspective, if you keep this core together then your goals should be realistic. This is a playoff team, not a contender. Things happen though in the playoffs, injuries, hot streaks etc. Do you roll the dice that this team is capable of making a run under the right circumstances? Or should we blow it up and take a gamble rebuilding during a loaded draft?

I would like to see some of your responses before I post my plan/ preference and the thread inevitably turns dark.

 

[riverman]

Hey All,

It's been awhile. I cannot say that I missed you but I figured it might be time to try this again. As stated in the title, I am curious which direction you think the team should go. Personally, I think this is a matter of perspective, if you keep this core together then your goals should be realistic. This is a playoff team, not a contender. Things happen though in the playoffs, injuries, hot streaks etc. Do you roll the dice that this team is capable of making a run under the right circumstances? Or should we blow it up and take a gamble rebuilding during a loaded draft?

I would like to see some of your responses before I post my plan/ preference and the thread inevitably turns dark.

Dude!!!! Welcome back!

 

[riverman]

Development season....getting to the second round for the youngsters would be a basketball camp they couldn't get playing pick up in the summer....we're a really young roster and I expect we'll look different at the deadline.

 

[Chris Craig]

I think it is still development for another year or two then balls deep

 

[Cippy91]

Can't really trust the process, we aren't like Philly with lotto picks for multiple years. Can't afford to go all in either. Just need upgrades. Only player to "trust the process" in right now is Collins

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Hey All,

It's been awhile. I cannot say that I missed you but I figured it might be time to try this again. As stated in the title, I am curious which direction you think the team should go. Personally, I think this is a matter of perspective, if you keep this core together then your goals should be realistic. This is a playoff team, not a contender. Things happen though in the playoffs, injuries, hot streaks etc. Do you roll the dice that this team is capable of making a run under the right circumstances? Or should we blow it up and take a gamble rebuilding during a loaded draft?

I would like to see some of your responses before I post my plan/ preference and the thread inevitably turns dark.

I think with everything going on in the NBA and the Blazers, and considering the players and assets we have...

Our path to a championship only happens if Nurk and Collins become all star or near all star level players.

You can't win by trying to copy the success of other teams. Golden State is currently dominating by playing small. Trying to play as small is a lesson in futility. We'll only be a copy of an original.

We need to go big and big with dynamic well rounded bigs. I loved Nurk's passing and court vision last year, it hasn't been used as much but it's there. I think Collins has similar skills. Use that. Build around it. Two great bigs makes up for short PG and SG.

Keep Nurk, continue to develop Collins. Get a big man coach. Try to quick bake that cake.

 

[BonesJones]

There's 4 aspects to building a team. The first one helps accomplish the other two.

1.) Flexibility
- Being able to make a run at free agents every summer because of the flexibility to clear cap space.
- Having good enough contracts to be able to move them easily as filler/salary matcher.
- Having a core group of players that is versatile enough so that any addition would fit in seamlessly and the team doesn't have to set specific parameters in their search for talent.
- Means more to big market teams.

2.) Overall Talent
- Can be added via Free Agency, Trade, or even the Draft.
- Having flexibility as well as young assets/pieces helps facilitate the addition of overall talent.
- Cohesiveness and having the right players in the right roles contributes to this.
- Good coaching contributes to this.
- Is essentially how good the team is/plays in the present.
- Overall Talent in the future is dependent upon moves made and potential growth (P&P).

3.) Picks and Potential (P&P)
- Involves young pieces that are valued by a rebuilding team (young players and picks)
- Also involves potential for certain players to grow into a bigger role.
- You can either stock up on P&P, cash it in for overall talent
- Or you can be to good to add to it.

4.) Roster Control
- How much control the team has over it's players' contract situations
- Teams with rights to players for multiple years have more control over them than expiring players
- A poor contract wouldn't factor in, as controlling someone like Evan Turner right now isn't beneficial, as he kills are flexibility (#1)

Right now, we have little flexibility, decent overall talent, and an average to below average amount of picks and potential.

So to answer the OP's question, I want to try to increase all three of these. However, I'd view it like this:
Overall Rating=Flexibility+Talent+P&P+Control

So anything that increases that overall rating, I'm for. IMO, adding DeAndre Jordan would be a very minimal talent upgrade over Nurk, we'd lose Nurk's potential to get better, and possible picks. We'd also lose roster control with Jordan being a free agent next year and Nurkic being only a RFA.

We should look into trading Napier and Vonleh because they would bring back equal talent, and those two's contract situations would threaten our already low flexibility levels. They also don't have the potential to get past where they are now in the rotation. We could also upgrade our cohesiveness/role situation by landing us a starting SF.

Hypothetically, trading Harkless and a pick for Tyreke Evans would increase our overall talent immediately, for many reasons. It'd also increase our future flexibility by shedding Harkless' contract. Losing the pick would hurt our P&P, however losing Harkless wouldn't affect this. So essentially, is the drop in P&P between now and 2018-2019 (due to resigning Tyreke being unlikely) worth the rise in flexibility (from shedding Harkless' contract and getting under the tax) and overall talent (for this year)?

So essentially, I want us to improve the situation based on those four factors.

 

[stampedehero]

Can't really trust the process, we aren't like Philly with lotto picks for multiple years. Can't afford to go all in either. Just need upgrades. Only player to "trust the process" in right now is Collins

What will happen with missing and mysterious Swanigan? He could be butter on the bread in a multi player deal if Neil wants it. I agree Collins should stay.

 

[Cippy91]

What will happen with missing and mysterious Swanigan? He could be butter on the bread in a multi player deal if Neil wants it. I agree Collins should stay.

You could probably deal Swanigan. Keep Collins. Super young and versatile. Can be that unicorn of a player. Ceiling being Porzingis. Just have to find a way to get rid of the bad contracts that were handed out. Harkless you could move in a package pretty easily I think. Turner and Meyers will be the tough ones to deal.

 

[stampedehero]

You could probably deal Swanigan. Keep Collins. Super young and versatile. Can be that unicorn of a player. Ceiling being Porzingis. Just have to find a way to get rid of the bad contracts that were handed out. Harkless you could move in a package pretty easily I think. Turner and Meyers will be the tough ones to deal.

Accurate view!!! No one wants "Outrageously Overpaid" Turner and "Too Much Money" Meyers. Imagine if we did not have those two with dollar space to acquire future young talent.

 

[hoopsjock]

There's 4 aspects to building a team. The first one helps accomplish the other two.

1.) Flexibility
- Being able to make a run at free agents every summer because of the flexibility to clear cap space.
- Having good enough contracts to be able to move them easily as filler/salary matcher.
- Having a core group of players that is versatile enough so that any addition would fit in seamlessly and the team doesn't have to set specific parameters in their search for talent.
- Means more to big market teams.

2.) Overall Talent
- Can be added via Free Agency, Trade, or even the Draft.
- Having flexibility as well as young assets/pieces helps facilitate the addition of overall talent.
- Cohesiveness and having the right players in the right roles contributes to this.
- Good coaching contributes to this.
- Is essentially how good the team is/plays in the present.
- Overall Talent in the future is dependent upon moves made and potential growth (P&P).

3.) Picks and Potential (P&P)
- Involves young pieces that are valued by a rebuilding team (young players and picks)
- Also involves potential for certain players to grow into a bigger role.
- You can either stock up on P&P, cash it in for overall talent
- Or you can be to good to add to it.

4.) Roster Control
- How much control the team has over it's players' contract situations
- Teams with rights to players for multiple years have more control over them than expiring players
- A poor contract wouldn't factor in, as controlling someone like Evan Turner right now isn't beneficial, as he kills are flexibility (#1)

Right now, we have little flexibility, decent overall talent, and an average to below average amount of picks and potential.

So to answer the OP's question, I want to try to increase all three of these. However, I'd view it like this:
Overall Rating=Flexibility+Talent+P&P+Control

So anything that increases that overall rating, I'm for. IMO, adding DeAndre Jordan would be a very minimal talent upgrade over Nurk, we'd lose Nurk's potential to get better, and possible picks. We'd also lose roster control with Jordan being a free agent next year and Nurkic being only a RFA.

We should look into trading Napier and Vonleh because they would bring back equal talent, and those two's contract situations would threaten our already low flexibility levels. They also don't have the potential to get past where they are now in the rotation. We could also upgrade our cohesiveness/role situation by landing us a starting SF.

Hypothetically, trading Harkless and a pick for Tyreke Evans would increase our overall talent immediately, for many reasons. It'd also increase our future flexibility by shedding Harkless' contract. Losing the pick would hurt our P&P, however losing Harkless wouldn't affect this. So essentially, is the drop in P&P between now and 2018-2019 (due to resigning Tyreke being unlikely) worth the rise in flexibility (from shedding Harkless' contract and getting under the tax) and overall talent (for this year)?

So essentially, I want us to improve the situation based on those four factors.

I really like this a lot. Something that is overlooked a lot when people say we need to increase flexibility by getting rid of contracts is that the reward for doing so doesn't necessarily lead to more flexibility and also takes away from other categories.

There doesn't appear to be a reasonable way to get under the salary cap, nor will there ever really be a way to get much cap space as long as Dame and CJ are on the team along with Nurk if/when extended. So even if they somehow got rid of Turner, Leonard, and Harkless for nothing back in return it still wouldn't really create a situation where the added flexibility leads to the ability to add more talent. In fact it would probably make it more difficult considering the picks and players that would have to be included for that to happen.

Despite being slightly above the tax line, the Blazers actually do have a decent amount of flexibility right now IF they are willing to spend the money. They still have the tax-payer MLE they could use to outbid most teams for any buyouts and of course the Trade Exception of $13 million. Any trades where a player goes out and nothing or less salary comes back also creates Trade Exceptions. With all the free agents out there and not a lot of teams with cap space it could create a situation where Trade Exceptions could become very valuable at the draft or at the beginning of free agency. That is why I won't panic quite yet if it isn't used by the deadline.

I totally overvalue draft picks but they represent a chance (albeit small where we will likely be picking) of landing a true difference maker. Trade that away just to get rid of a bad contract and you almost eliminated any chance you have of improving this summer. 1st round picks are always valuable whether used on a player or in a trade. Like you alluded to the more picks and promising young players a team has the better everything else becomes especially trades.

 

[barfo]

You can't win by trying to copy the success of other teams. Golden State is currently dominating by playing small. Trying to play as small is a lesson in futility. We'll only be a copy of an original.

We need to go big and big with dynamic well rounded bigs.

No. Going big has been tried before as well. We need something original, something noone has tried before.

I have a plan. We've had key parts before but have not capitalized on them.

We need to go fat.

barfo

 

[andalusian]

No. Going big has been tried before as well. We need something original, something noone has tried before.

I have a plan. We've had key parts before but have not capitalized on them.

We need to go fat.

We tried that with Felton.

 

[Nikolokolus]

With their current salary obligations (size and term) and the age of Damian, they're probably better trying to perform trades, than tanking. Blowing this team up would mean pairing picks with shitty contracts just to get rid of them (Turner, Leonard, Harkless, et al.) and you'd basically be giving away the types of assets you need in a rebuild, unless you're willing to take pennies or dimes on the dollar for guys like Damian or CJ for younger, unproven assets (draft picks or players).

If the Blazers could pair CJ with Nurkic, or CJ with Collins, or CJ with some other combination of players, there's a chance they could swing a deal for a second all-NBA caliber player, which is probably what they're going to need if they really want to contend for a title. Even then you need one of the players left over to take a big leap (Collins or Nurkic if neither is used in a trade).

 

[Orion Bailey]

Hey All,

It's been awhile. I cannot say that I missed you but I figured it might be time to try this again. As stated in the title, I am curious which direction you think the team should go. Personally, I think this is a matter of perspective, if you keep this core together then your goals should be realistic. This is a playoff team, not a contender. Things happen though in the playoffs, injuries, hot streaks etc. Do you roll the dice that this team is capable of making a run under the right circumstances? Or should we blow it up and take a gamble rebuilding during a loaded draft?

I would like to see some of your responses before I post my plan/ preference and the thread inevitably turns dark.

Holy hell. I dont know who you are, but I know that the years before I joined, I read many posts of yours I thought were good.

Nice to have you back, but....

I do believe you have to start over from ground zero if you have been inactive for a year.

Is this correct @HCP ?

 

[Orion Bailey]

As for the OP,

Only small moves before the trade deadline to try to free a bit of cap. If we can find a workable wing in that process great, but not counting on it. See how we do the rest of the season and playoffs and make the bigger moves this offseason.

 

[barfo]

We tried that with Felton.

Yes, but we didn't bring in fatness to surround him. We need an all-flabby starting lineup.

barfo

 

[kjironman1]

Too early to go all in. Still need another year or two of building. Stay with the process of building a solid team.

 

[andalusian]

Yes, but we didn't bring in fatness to surround him. We need an all-flabby starting lineup.

barfo

You are advocating soccer wall defense?

It will definitely help to seal the paint - but with NBA offenses becoming 3 ball happy, I am not certain it helps.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I totally overvalue draft picks but they represent a chance (albeit small where we will likely be picking) of landing a true difference maker. Trade that away just to get rid of a bad contract and you almost eliminated any chance you have of improving this summer. 1st round picks are always valuable whether used on a player or in a trade. Like you alluded to the more picks and promising young players a team has the better everything else becomes especially trades.

I totally overvalue draft picks but it's because I like being able to fill out a rotation with either vets like Aminu and Ed who'll come here as a one-trick role player for less than market value (which we got super-lucky with), or with rookie-scale contracts. The regulars are tired of hearing me say this, but if we wouldn't have traded away our draft capital from the classes of 2013 (other than CJ), 2014, 2015 and 2016 in trades (failed or not) that didn't get us very far, we would've had a stable of young players coming up that allowed us to not panic-pay Crabbe, or Mo, or Meyers. For instance, if we had Pat last year playing like he was this year, would we have said "I'd rather pay Pat 1.4M than Crabbe 18M?" I think maybe we would. If we had Zach (or shit, even Biggie) playing well behind Meyers would we have offered him 4/41M? Pat and Crabbe and Patty Mills and Will Barton were all 2nd round picks that would be super-useful to us, but we are in a habit of trading them away, too.

 

[cmeese47]

Something to think about is what kind of value could we get from someone like Lillard, CJ or Nurk?

Could you be able to take a flier on Fultz being the guy he was at Washington, swapping CJ for Fultz and Philly's 2 extra first would be a good start to a rebuild but could we get that value or would we be hard pressed into taking pennies on the dollar like Sacramento got for Cousins.

Remember we were so close to trusting the process and having it pay off years ago with Roy, LA, and Batum. Just missed taking Oden over Durant but the formula can work.

The responses have been good so I will remain speculative for now but soon I will over a plan for each option.

 

[riverman]

Something to think about is what kind of value could we get from someone like Lillard, CJ or Nurk?

Could you be able to take a flier on Fultz being the guy he was at Washington, swapping CJ for Fultz and Philly's 2 extra first would be a good start to a rebuild but could we get that value or would we be hard pressed into taking pennies on the dollar like Sacramento got for Cousins.

Remember we were so close to trusting the process and having it pay off years ago with Roy, LA, and Batum. Just missed taking Oden over Durant but the formula can work.

The responses have been good so I will remain speculative for now but soon I will over a plan for each option.

I actually like Baldwin IV better than what I've seen of Fultz...and he's cheap. I think we'll dump salary for picks and see Baldwin and Swanigan playing before it's all said and done this season..CJ could bring in a real bona fide SF...even probably get you a Paul George rental and salary relief or maybe a Jimmy Butler or Anthony Davis....all worth considering moving forward. Kawhi Leonard for CJ...Greek Freak for CJ....in a heartbeat

 

[BrianFromWA]

Something to think about is what kind of value could we get from someone like Lillard, CJ or Nurk?

Could you be able to take a flier on Fultz being the guy he was at Washington, swapping CJ for Fultz and Philly's 2 extra first would be a good start to a rebuild but could we get that value or would we be hard pressed into taking pennies on the dollar like Sacramento got for Cousins.

Remember we were so close to trusting the process and having it pay off years ago with Roy, LA, and Batum. Just missed taking Oden over Durant but the formula can work.

The responses have been good so I will remain speculative for now but soon I will over a plan for each option.

I think those are in 3 separate categories.

1) Despite what Dame says, I don't think he's going anywhere. I think if CLE called up and offered LeBron we'd say no right now. They won't, so he'll stay.
2) CJ may bring back a lot, but not necessarily a King's Ransom. Probably much closer to what SAC got for Boogie than what LAC got for Griffin. I don't know that that's a good value for us, unless it was a 3-and-D guard who was on a relatively cheap deal and draft picks were coming back. So....probably not.
3) Nurk may go away, but it would likely only be for another rim-protecting big.

 

[jlprk]

Our path to a championship only happens if Nurk and Collins become all star or near all star level players.

Nurkic and Collins will never be All-Stars. For example, tonight Collins was easily outplayed by Pascal Siakam, whoever that is. Siakam and the Toronto commentators were laughing.

Blazer fans overrate our average talent.

 

[riverman]

Blazer fans overrate our average talent.

Our G league stars are back....now we can really overrate new players for a change

 

[cmeese47]

I am going to steer this thing into the rebuild direction for now, because I honestly cannot see us bursting through the Warriors while they have Green, Thompson, Curry and Durant. The second reason is Olshey is terrifying, when he believes this team can contend, just see the massive overpay we gave Turner, Leonard etc.

If you have Lebron and can get to the finals each year spend whatever to keep him happy and his core intact. We don't have that option so we need flexibility year in and year out.

Olshey has made some good moves and some stupid ones but we are where we are now nothing will change that. However, we can put ourselves in a much worse positon with one stupid move. For example the trade talk about getting Jordan for a package led by Nurkic and a 1st would cripple this team. We have had a top 10 defense all year and yet our big playoff push plan involves trading our 23 year old Big with actual upside and a pick in what is consider a deep and loaded draft for a 29 year old 1 dimensional player. Come on guys.

Its time to be creative for example Favors doesn't mesh will with Utah's front line could we get him and a first for Nurkic. He wouldn't handcuff our future flexibility like overpaying Nurkic as a free agent or the cost of adding DJ would and it would bring in a cheap asset in a 1st round pick.

More ideas to follow after work.

P.S. just to be clear Nurkic is not himself a handcuff the 20 million he might get this summer would be.

 

[tlongII]

Hey All,

It's been awhile. I cannot say that I missed you but I figured it might be time to try this again. As stated in the title, I am curious which direction you think the team should go. Personally, I think this is a matter of perspective, if you keep this core together then your goals should be realistic. This is a playoff team, not a contender. Things happen though in the playoffs, injuries, hot streaks etc. Do you roll the dice that this team is capable of making a run under the right circumstances? Or should we blow it up and take a gamble rebuilding during a loaded draft?

I would like to see some of your responses before I post my plan/ preference and the thread inevitably turns dark.

Bullshit. You missed me. I know you did.

 

[cmeese47]

Here is a trade idea, I came up with this morning have not checked all the details but it is worth talking about at least.

Would you trade, CJ and Ed Davis for Kuzma, Ingram, Clarkson and Deng plus picks?

Everyone knows the Lakers are desperate to shed salary to make a run at PG13 and Lebron next summer. I say we help them out in exchange for 2 quality young players in Kuzma and Ingram and several picks. Due to the owed pick to Philly, I believe we would need a 3rd team to maybe take Randle for a 1st this year so that we can ask for 3 1sts to complete the deal.

That is 5 quality assets for CJ and some bad contracts which we already have plenty of.

I have a follow-up deal for Damian later but want to see thoughts on this first. Let the hating begin.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

I think with everything going on in the NBA and the Blazers, and considering the players and assets we have...

Our path to a championship only happens if Nurk and Collins become all star or near all star level players.

You can't win by trying to copy the success of other teams. Golden State is currently dominating by playing small. Trying to play as small is a lesson in futility. We'll only be a copy of an original.

We need to go big and big with dynamic well rounded bigs. I loved Nurk's passing and court vision last year, it hasn't been used as much but it's there. I think Collins has similar skills. Use that. Build around it. Two great bigs makes up for short PG and SG.

Keep Nurk, continue to develop Collins. Get a big man coach. Try to quick bake that cake.

I think you have nailed it, Dog. Throw in Brians post, and this sums up where I am at.

 

[hoopsjock]

Here is a trade idea, I came up with this morning have not checked all the details but it is worth talking about at least.

Would you trade, CJ and Ed Davis for Kuzma, Ingram, Clarkson and Deng plus picks?

Everyone knows the Lakers are desperate to shed salary to make a run at PG13 and Lebron next summer. I say we help them out in exchange for 2 quality young players in Kuzma and Ingram and several picks. Due to the owed pick to Philly, I believe we would need a 3rd team to maybe take Randle for a 1st this year so that we can ask for 3 1sts to complete the deal.

That is 5 quality assets for CJ and some bad contracts which we already have plenty of.

I have a follow-up deal for Damian later but want to see thoughts on this first. Let the hating begin.

Why would the Lakers do this? They could easily dump Clarkson for nothing if it came down to it. Ingram and Kuzma are on cheap contracts and likely wouldn't be dealt unless someone better than CJ is coming back. CJ is also on a massive contract so it doesn't help them shed salary either. Plus they have to add 3 picks too?

Let's put it this way: Even if cap space wasn't the issue the Lakers wouldn't trade Kuzma and Ingram for CJ. This should probably be in the crazy trade thread.