All is quiet on the Blazers front......

[Minstrel]

Don't know if it matters much, but we also have a trade exception in the amount of $407,210 from the Plumlee/Nurkic trade that expires on 2/13/2018. It's not much, but with all the teams looking to shed cap space, it may be useful in a facilitator role.

What generally kills the value of those types of exceptions is that they can't be combined with other exceptions or salaries. So it would have to fully encompass the salary of the player we're getting back--I think the minimum NBA salary is higher than $408k. Even if not, it's hard to imagine a player that makes that little being both valuable enough for us to care about and yet valueless enough that the other team wants to dump for so little cap space.

 

[Scalma]

But they are something. And combined with the eye test, I see nothing Allen Crabbe does better than Pat Connaughton. Crabbe just does more of it - which is why I included the caveats about limited sample size and production scaling with increased role. Connaughton played mostly garbage time minutes, but on the few occasions he played meaningful minutes, he produced well and looked comfortable.

BNM

No they're not something. The guy had THREE games of 20+ minutes the whole season, two of them in meaningless mop up games at the end of the season with absolutely zero pressure. If I only had a list of blazers bench players that showed out in the final game of the season...

We get it, you don't like Crabbe, but when you try and make arguments like this, it's hard to take you seriously.

 

[tlongII]

No he didn't. More like Schilly read his twitter post.

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think we're done..... but I have no idea what Neil is planning.

I have to think there's going to be some thinning of the roster though.

 

[Boob-No-More]

No they're not something. The guy had THREE games of 20+ minutes the whole season, two of them in meaningless mop up games at the end of the season with absolutely zero pressure. If I only had a list of blazers bench players that showed out in the final game of the season...

We get it, you don't like Crabbe, but when you try and make arguments like this, it's hard to take you seriously.

That's ok, I don't need you to take me seriously.

BTW, before you automatically dismiss the Connaughton/Crabbe comparison, you may want to go back and look at the game logs for Crabbe's second season and compare them to Connaughton's.

In his second season, Crabbe only played more than 20 minutes 10 times. He only score in double figures once all year. His best game was 11 points, 4 rebounds and 0 assists. His season highs were 7 rebounds (once) and 4 assists (once). His PER was 8.6, his TS% was .525, his TRB% was 5.7 and his AST% was 8.1. Yet, the very next season, he was our sixth man.

In his second season, Pat Connaughton scored in double digits twice (19 and 15). His best game was 19 points, 7 rebounds and 7 assists. His season highs were 7 rebounds (twice) and 7 assists (once). His PER was 11.8, his TS% was .645, his TRB% was 9.1 and his AST% was 12.7.

This is what I meant when I said Connaughton's career was following a similar arc to Crabbe's.

Crabbe put up worse numbers in a minor role his second season and became our 6th man a year later. Connaughton's second year numbers were better than Crabbe's. It is not inconceivable he could play a larger role in his 3rd season.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

What generally kills the value of those types of exceptions is that they can't be combined with other exceptions or salaries. So it would have to fully encompass the salary of the player we're getting back--I think the minimum NBA salary is higher than $408k. Even if not, it's hard to imagine a player that makes that little being both valuable enough for us to care about and yet valueless enough that the other team wants to dump for so little cap space.

Good point, I figured it might not be worth anything. I just remembered we got a small trade exception in the Nurk trade.

BNM

 

[Scalma]

I don't think we're done..... but I have no idea what Neil is planning.

I have to think there's going to be some thinning of the roster though.

This is my order of most likely to be traded

1. Vonleh
2. Davis
3. Leonard
4. Aminu
5. Harkless
6. Crabbe
7. Turner

Vonleh and Davis are both FAs after next season. Leonard should be number one, but his value is rock bottom. Aminu is another FA to be. Harkless has value but I think the team likes him. They probably like Crabbe more than most fans as well, and he is also the hardest to replace. Don't think anyone wants Turner.

 

[illmatic99]

I feel like expiring contracts will become more valuable again with this minimal increase in the cap and the saturation of shit deals in the market.

That Ed Davis contract will become pretty useful for some team or the other around the trade deadine. It's why I'm also hesitant to let go of Ezeli as well. That 7.7 mil deal is a damn good salary filler in February. We can put together a package of nearly 20 mil in expiring deals alone and the salary hit will be less than half that for the other team in Feb.

Keeping an eye on Anthony Davis situation in NO. If things go sour this season with Cuz, they might blow that up altogether.

 

[blue9]

Keeping an eye on Anthony Davis situation in NO. If things go sour this season with Cuz, they might blow that up altogether.

Yeah, I think he's the next star to be traded...and I think Neil is biding his time. Muahahahahaha!

On an unrelated note, I'm curious if packaging one of our "value" contracts with one of our "bad" contracts would be at all enticing to any teams - the value contract helps offset the expensive contract. Would love to do a couple 2:1 trades using:

Crabbe/Aminu
Turner/Davis

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yeah, I think he's the next star to be traded...and I think Neil is biding his time. Muahahahahaha!

On an unrelated note, I'm curious if packaging one of our "value" contracts with one of our "bad" contracts would be at all enticing to any teams - the value contract helps offset the expensive contract. Would love to do a couple 2:1 trades using:

Crabbe/Aminu
Turner/Davis

Only if we're taking back a massive contract in return.

Most of the teams under the cap, who can absorb one of our bad contracts, are teams that are rebuilding. Turner, Davis and Aminu are of no value to them. Too old. Crabbe might have value to one of those teams, like BRK or ORL that think he is young enough and good enough to be a starter for them. Same for Meyers, potentially.

All of the decent teams that have cap space aren't going to waste it, at least not any time soon, on marginal players like Davis, Aminu and Turner. Who knows, maybe Davis or Aminu might have value as expiring contracts at the trade deadline, but right now, not so much.

BNM

 

[chzbrgr]

Patty Baseball's $1,471,382 contract for 2017-18 does not become guaranteed until July 25. So, we can wait to see where we're at at that time and either keep him or cut him loose.

Frankly, I'm hoping we can move Crabbe between now and then and Connaughton can assume his role at a much lower price. The sample size is limited, but Connaughton shoots even better than Crabbe, is a much better rebounder, a much better passer, and no worse defensively. Connaughton's 2nd year advanced stats pretty much match Crabbe's 4th year advanced stats.

The real question is can Connughton's production remain the same (or improve) with a larger role? No way to know for sure, unless/until it happens, but Crabbe made his big jump in minutes from his 2nd to 3rd year and Patty C. seems to be following a similar career arc.

BNM

Thank you sir