Orion Bailey
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In a year, his contract will be a common sized one for bench players.
He's being paid like a 6th man.
IF he starts producing. IF not...
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In a year, his contract will be a common sized one for bench players.
He's being paid like a 6th man.
IF he starts producing. IF not...
Crabbes TS% is 10% lower than Currys in his first MVP year. And Crabbe has had a horrible start. I can live with that.
I think trading CJ, for Cousins, would be a good idea regardless of how Crabbe is playing.
I think a backcourt of Dame and CJ is just too shitty defensively. Is there a worse defensive backcourt in the league? If we had gotten Whiteside, it could probably work.
Anyways, I'm really just glad that his averages are pretty much back to where they were last year. If Stotts can get him a couple more shots a game, Crabbe could be averaging like 12 points a game on like .39% from three. Neil should be able to get something for that.
He's producing fine for a 6th man. The alarm should stop when his production continues to improve. He started slow, his play of late is much better than his season stats show. If CJ were to miss a bunch of games, Crabbe would be a solid replacement, though the expected dropoff from elite player to bench player.
For the record, the projected LT for next season is $113M or so, after the league lowered its projections. Crabbe makes $18.5/$113 = ~16%. That's 1/6th of the payroll.
Dame will be making $26.2M, CJ $24M.
For all the handwringing over luxury tax implications in future years, Neil has plenty of time to make trades to facilitate keeping whichever combination of players he wants that fit under the LT by then.
He's producing fine for a 6th man. The alarm should stop when his production continues to improve. He started slow, his play of late is much better than his season stats show. If CJ were to miss a bunch of games, Crabbe would be a solid replacement, though the expected dropoff from elite player to bench player.
PER = 9.5 is NOT fine for a 6th man. And, he's 4th on the team in minutes played. He's producing like a bad 8th man, getting 4th man minutes and a 2nd man paycheck. And playing better lately is a TWO game occurrence. Hardly a trend.
How, exactly would Crabbe be a solid replacement for C.J.? He's a worse shooter, the worst rebounder on the team and one of the worst passers. He has no handle. So, can't take any pressure off Dame the way C.J. does. He can't create for himself, or others.
Honestly, in spite of his generally poor shooting, if C.J. did go down, I think starting Turner at SG would be better than staring Crabbe. Turner produces more pts/100 possessions, way more reb/100 and way more ast/100 possessions than Crabbe. He's also a better defender.
Here are their per 100 possessions number:
Crabbe: 16.1 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.3 ast, 0.8 stl, 0.5 blk
Turner: 17.3 pts, 7.9 reb, 5.8 ast, 1.5 stl, 0.6 blk
Turner can create for himself and others. Without C.J. in the line up, we'd need that as Mo and Ed/Chief also depend on others to create for them. If you add Crabbe to that, you have three guys in your starting line up that can't create their own shot. Not good.
BNM
Taj Gibson, 6th man last year. 8.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.5 APG, 1.1 BPG
$8.5M under the old TV deal. ~12% of the LT, with a cheap cheap cheap owner.
Enis Kanter,
Broken record.
We get that you hate the guy and want him gone.
So, now this is about me?
I don't hate him. I hate the contract and wish he was producing better. If he was, we'd benefit. Either he'd be helping us win more games, or he'd be a valuable trade chip. Right now, he's neither.
BNM
Enis Kanter,
Broken record.
We get that you hate the guy and want him gone.
It's not about hate. Its about the numbers you say are good for 6th man simply are not to others of us. 6th men are typically the third to 4th best production players on a roster and are almost always the most productive off the bench.
Crabbe is neither. Not saying he wont improve, but I don't see where his game has taken any type of next step in any facet since last year and that's what we were expecting when signing him to the contract he has.
The Taj Gibson inference is a joke. Sorry.
I said he gets paid like a 6th man. People don't seem to be taking into account the size of contracts in the new TV deal era. Last year, his contract would have been horrible. Next year, not bad at all.
Based on his production this year, it's a horrible contract, even when taking into account the new TV deal. There was a LOT of big money thrown around last summer, but Crabbe is still the 31st highest paid player in the league. Most of that big money went to guys who are starters, and as I mentioned the only player paid more than Crabbe who is having a worse season is Chandler Parson, due to injury.
There isn't a single bench player in the entire league that makes more than Allen Crabbe.
You mentioned Ennis Kanter. He's the 38th highest paid player in the league, but his production blows Crabbe away. He has a PER of 24.2 (Crabbe = 9.5), a TS% of .610, is one of the best offensive rebounders in the game with a WS/48 of .207 (Crabbe = 0.040). He scores 32.2 points per 100 possessions, exactly twice Crabbe's 16.1. He should have won 6th man of the year award last season.
BNM
Kanter got a massive full/max contract a year ago to play 19 MPG.Based on his production this year, it's a horrible contract, even when taking into account the new TV deal. There was a LOT of big money thrown around last summer, but Crabbe is still the 31st highest paid player in the league. Most of that big money went to guys who are starters, and as I mentioned the only player paid more than Crabbe who is having a worse season is Chandler Parson, due to injury.
There isn't a single bench player in the entire league that makes more than Allen Crabbe.
You mentioned Ennis Kanter. He's the 38th highest paid player in the league, but his production blows Crabbe away. He has a PER of 24.2 (Crabbe = 9.5), a TS% of .610, is one of the best offensive rebounders in the game with a WS/48 of .207 (Crabbe = 0.040). He scores 32.2 points per 100 possessions, exactly twice Crabbe's 16.1. He should have won 6th man of the year award last season.
BNM
No, PER considered. Kanter's getting that max deal because he's a hyper-efficient scorer/rebounder in those 19mpg.Kanter got a massive full/max contract a year ago to play 19 MPG.
PER be damned.
There are a lot of guys way underpaid because they signed their contracts before last summer. Crabbe benefited by being a starting caliber player with potential upside in the first year of a massive hike in the cap and LT. Yes, starting caliber. He'd be starting at SG if we let him walk. Or trade him to a team like Philly.
Like I said, people are not taking into consideration NEXT season's payroll sizes.
If we didn't have Crabbe, we'd be playing someone probably worse. There weren't better players beating down the door to sign with us. It would have saved some salary, but what's the point in not spending up to the LT if you can?
I would much rather have Crabbe than have spent the money on Mosgov. Or DHoward. Or Deng. Or many others.
But I heard there is a potential regression of almost 2% by 2020 or something?
I still disagree. Even with the larger contracts, Crabbe's is TOO large.
Also, just because you happen to start in this league, does not mean you are a qualified starter, it may mean the team you are on just lacks options.
Currently, based on production from past 6th men vs Crabbe, and past contracts for 6th men vs Crabbe's and then other current contracts given to role players, Crabbe was over paid. Until he puts up CONSISTENT 6th man type numbers, he will continue to be an over[paid contract player.
Kanter's contract was outrageous in last year's salary structure. Max contract, like you pay your 2nd best player. Not a 20 MPG guy.No, PER considered. Kanter's getting that max deal because he's a hyper-efficient scorer/rebounder in those 19mpg.
Kanter got a massive full/max contract a year ago to play 19 MPG.
PER be damned.
Good thing the seasons not over.LOL again, you make it sound like a 10% difference in TS% is no big deal, when actually it's the difference between being the best shooter in the league and being the 100th best.
Counting only rotation players, Allen Crabbe is currently 111th in TS%
That 10% difference in TS% is basically the difference between the best (GSW = .609) and worst (ORL = .501) shooting teams in the league. A 10% difference in shooting percentage is significant - VERY significant.
It's a HUGE risk that could end up blowing up in our face if Cousins doesn't have his head on straight and/or we lose him for nothing to free agency. Even if we don't lose Cousins, adding him shortens our window as he's older than or current core. Of course, if Cousins does pan out and stays, our ceiling could be higher, but there is a huge risk it could backfire and we basically gave up a top 5 shooting guard for a short term rental.
Which is why a Crabbe for Noel trade is so appealing. Noel is an elite defender, much better than Cousins. Obviously, Noel isn't half the offensive player Cousins is, but he wouldn't have to be. We'd still have C.J. averaging 22 ppg as our No. 2 option and Harklesss is looking more and more like a legitimate No. 3 option. In addition to his elite rim protection and pick and roll defense, adding Noel to our core actually makes us younger and extends our window. He's only 22 and already one of the best defenders in the league. He will only get better offensively, but honestly, if you get 10 or 12 ppg out of your No. 4 or No. 5 option, that's plenty, especially when it comes with elite defense.
But they aren't back to where they were last year. He's playing more minutes, producing less and ALL of his shooting percentages are down. Right now, he's averaging 9.2 ppg through 21 games. He'd have to average 13.7 ppg between now and the trade deadline to pull his scoring average up to 12 ppg. Not likely, his career high is 10.2 ppg. It would be great if he was, as it would increase his trade value.
And, it's not about Stotts getting him more shots. The reason Crabbe doesn't get more shots is he absolutely, positively cannot create his own shot. He's is almost totally reliant on others to create more shots for him. I don't care what system you play in, a player who can't create his own shot will always be limited in how many shots he gets. In 21 games this season, Crabbe only has a total of 5 unassisted made 2FG and exactly 1 unassisted made 3FG. He simply lacks the ability to create his own shot. That's on him, not Stotts (or Turner, or anyone else).
BNM
Better to have a slump early than later I always sayHe's played some of the worst games of his life so far this season
There are a lot of guys way underpaid because they signed their contracts before last summer. Crabbe benefited by being a starting caliber player with potential upside in the first year of a massive hike in the cap and LT. Yes, starting caliber. He'd be starting at SG if we let him walk. Or trade him to a team like Philly.
I would much rather have Crabbe than have spent the money on Mosgov. Or DHoward. Or Deng. Or many others.
Dwight is a cancer in the locker room. I look at more than offensive stats.He'd only be starting for one of the worst teams in the league - PHI or BRK.
Really, you don't think Dwight would have helped our interior defense and rebounding - two of our most glaring weaknesses?
He's leading the league in both ORB% and TRB% and is 4th in DRtg. He would be a huge upgrade over any big man we have on our roster.
BNM
Good thing the seasons not over.
And there are a lot of people that can't create their own shot, so it's definitely on Stotts... Kyle Korver, Danny green, JJ reddick...
Dwight is a cancer in the locker room. I look at more than offensive stats.
You should probably look at defensive stats and rebounding, too.
What problems has Dwight caused in ATL? You don't think pairing him with a strong leader like Dame would help?
BNM
What's your point? Crabbe is a good 3 point shooter. It doesn't matter if some other people are better. The guy can fucking shoot.All three of those guys are starters and only one of them (Redick) gets more shots than Crabbe. Two of them also happen to be two of the best 3-point shooters of the last 15 years. Redick is so much more efficient than Crabbe it's was ridiculous. As was Korver in his prime.
BNM
