A lot of people doubt Martell will be anything but an "average" player for this team, yet Rudy is untouchable and could start for most teams in the NBA...What kills me is the fact that they put up pretty identical numbers and yet Rudy is a muuuuch better player...How does this make ANY sense? Rudy completely choked in the playoffs last year on offense (minus the one game) and didn't play ANY defense but somehow he's untouchable. He's 24 and has been playing pro ball since 16 against men while Martell is 22 and came out of high school... Every time I bring this up NOBODY will justify their opinion.
Am I missing something?
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I'm with you, but I'm aware that I'm in the minority. To me, passing ability is about the only significant difference between Rudy and Von Wafer. But Rudy's won a EuroLeague MVP, so...what do I know?
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I don't that anyone considers Fernandez "untouchable," but he is a better player than Webster. His rookie PER (which adjusts for pace and minutes) was 15.5 (where 15.0 is average) while Webster's third year PER was 12.0. That's a significant difference.
Webster is younger, which could suggest greater upside. Undercutting that argument, however, is Webster's total lack of improvement through his career. His PERs by season go like this:
First year: 11.6
Second year: 9.9
Third year: 12.0
Fourth year: N/A
That doesn't paint a picture of a player improving as he approaches his prime.
Perhaps Fernandez is overrated...he was a very slightly above-average player as a 23 year old rookie. To be a star, he'll need to improve significantly and his age suggests he doesn't have a ton of upside left. However, he does have a few pre-prime years left and he's still very young in terms of NBA experience.
Regardless, he's definitely better than Webster. Perhaps Webster will break out, but until he does, he's a significantly less valuable player than Fernandez.
BlazerCaravan
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I'm inching towards the "trade Rudy while we can" bandwagon. I love the guy's play. He set a record for rookies. He obviously has a ton of value to people out there. But... I feel that he won't be satisfied as a bench player, and has this back spasm issue (once a back goes bad once, it goes bad more and more later on) that concerns me a bit. And for all we get on Martell about his shooting, Rudy had some pretty dry spells (1-7 nights, etc.)
I wouldn't mind a consolidation package, to be honest. It might be the franchises last chance to trade for a starting SF.
I wouldn't mind a consolidation package, to be honest. It might be the franchises last chance to trade for a starting SF.
hypnosmurf
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Nate didn't ask Rudy to do all he can last year. Watching him in international play you can see he's capable of doing so much more.
RoyIsClutch07
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I don't know if Rudy is that much better than Martell.
BlazerCaravan
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This is another reason why I think we'd be better served by trading him. He would be better served as well, but let's think "best for the franchise" for a second: If he's not being fully utilized, we can find a resource that fits the offense and won't take off after his rookie contract is up. If he *is* being fully utilized next season, he'll probably want to start. Unless he gains 35lbs of muscle and starts at SF, we don't have room for him.
In either case, I think either Martell or Bayless could do a great job at backup-SG behind Roy.
Anyway, I'm done beating on that dead horse now. Carry on!
RoyIsClutch07
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I'm almost in agreement. Would you all trust Bayless as your backup two?
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Looking at a comparison between Rudy's '09 season and Martell's '08, one can see that they put up very similar stats.
Aside from small differences in blocks & rebounding (Martell's higher) and steals & assists (Rudy's higher) that essentially offset one another, the primary differences between them were the fact that Rudy shot more 3's (7.2 per 36m vs. Martell's 5.4), and Rudy hit a much higher percentage of free throws (.839 for Rudy, .735 for Martell).
Is there something else that significantly contributes to their vast disparity in PER other than these two items?
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Yes, I would.
hypnosmurf
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He's tough and strong enough but is he tall enough to guard two's?
BlazerCaravan
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Bayless has been at his best when he's paired up with one of the other two PG's on our roster. He gets to be the bulldog, he can look for teammates at his leisure without stagnating the offense, and because he's not starting, he's not as likely to be abused by the other team's starting SG/PG. I think he'd be a great backup SG, personally.
My "April 2010" playing rotation:
Miller/Blake
Roy/Bayless
Batum/Webster
LMA/Cunningham
Oden/Joel
My "April 2010" playing rotation:
Miller/Blake
Roy/Bayless
Batum/Webster
LMA/Cunningham
Oden/Joel
RoyIsClutch07
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That's what I'm wondering.
BlazerCaravan
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I think he'd be okay against backup SG's in the league. Plus he's good at getting fouled on the drive, so they have to defend him as much as he has to defend them. When you're playing 20 minutes a game instead of 36, you can afford to make that tradeoff.
RoyIsClutch07
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So who would you move Rudy for?
andalusian
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They are not that similar, notice that Rudy got his in less time (total and per game), he was a lot more efficient - his TS% is higher, his assist rate is almost twice as much as Webster's, his steals% is almost twice. Yes, Martel rebounds more - but if you look at the rebound rate - the difference is not that big.
These little differences show in the advanced statistics - Martel is a rotation guy, by PER, Rudy was just a little better than the average starter - that's a big difference in efficiency. Look at Rudy's win-score - it is almost twice of Martel's with less minutes. Look how much better Rudy's offensive rating is - the team scored an extra 11 points per 100 possessions with Rudy compared to what it did with Martel.
The numbers might look similar - but if you look at the details, it is pretty clear that Rudy is just more efficient.
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Since I don't have a fetish for 3-point shooting - yes, I think I would. Bayless has better handles than Rudy, and can be a better defender (not a high bar to clear). He has a ways to go to be as good a passer, but that is largely a function of experience.
Bayless will never be the perimeter threat Rudy is, but he will also be better at attacking the hoop and getting to the line. IMHO, this team "settles" for outside shots when it could be attacking. Rudy is part of that problem/Bayless could be part of the solution.
I'm not going to fish around for threads that have people drooling over Rudy and claiming he's "untouchable" but I know I have read it here several times. A LOT of people said no to including Rudy in a deal for David Lee...That is laughable, Lee led the league in double doubles last year...I guess it really depends on what else they would demand in that trade but to say Rudy is more valuable than Lee is absolutely insane. Funny that Rudy is probably the worst on ball defender on the team and yet he gets a pass somehow. Yea he can pass the ball and can shoot the three but how many baskets has he cost the team due to that Euro reach around defense? He made Shane Battier look like an All-Star when he had to guard him during the playoffs. The PER stats do not lie, Martell needs to make a vast improvement this year in that category for me to continue to support him. When he settles down this season I think he will be productive in whatever he brings. With his role I don't see him putting up consistent scoring because there isn't enough shots to go around but that gives him more energy to play defense, finish on fast breaks and rebound...all things Rudy doesn't do well.
Nikolokolus
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I think Rudy has a much better chance to be a better pure shooter than Martell with a full year to adjust to the three point line, but I do think Rudy is a touch overrated by many Blazers fans (especially when they call him "untouchable") All in all I rate Rudy as a very good reserve shooting guard and Martell as a very average reserve small forward.
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I'm honestly not sure... maybe Rudy and others (Outlaw, Blake) for an unprotected 1st rounder and some contract they don't want. I'd love to offer Rudy as a carrot because he's on his rookie contract, and obviously was a steal when we drafted him. Move him to a team in needs of a starting SG, a bad team, and take their unprotected 1st rounder (or even Top-3 protected). That way, we get a high draft pick next season to shore up a little more talent at a starter's level. Maybe a "new starting PG" or a "new backup C" or what-have-you. It'll probably be the last time we get a draft pick that sniffs the lotto for a while, and gives us one more opportunity to get cheap talent before as we go over the cap.
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First of all, comparing the Ortg and win share is fallacious because both figures are dependent on team performance, and the team as a whole was significantly better in '09 than in '08. Now, if you want to claim that the improvement in performance is a function of Rudy's presence and Martell's absence, then that's fine, but I certainly don't have to agree with you.
Secondly, using the percentage difference in reb% and ast% to discount Martell's rebounding but laud Rudy's passing ignores the base size of each stat. Look at the per 36 figures--Martell had 1.3 more rebounds, Rudy had 1.4 more assists. Are you going to tell me that those aren't comparable differentials?
Again, I acknowledged the difference in PER--primarily attributable to the TS%--and I identified the primary reason for it. Rudy shot more 3s (thereby getting more pps), and hit a higher FT%. Do you see anything else that would contribute to a significant difference in PER? Does that mean that Martell would be "above average" if he shot eight 3s per 36min instead of 5.4?
Well put. Although I think Martell is still too young to judge, right now he is a very average small forward indeed. He just needs to play solid defense, rebound and hit open shots. If he does those things we have a more athletic Battier. If Rudy would just play defense I would be on the bandwagon...but he does not.
andalusian
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Of course I am going to tell you that. The assists difference is pretty much 3 points difference - where the rebounds are not - the same rebound could have been collected by another team-mate. Rebounding is often a product of role - if Rudy's role is to leak out on offense for a fast break - he is less likely to get a rebound. Also - if he is guarding a guard, where Martell is mostly matched against a forward - he is more likely to be away from the basket.
Assists are more valuable than pure rebounds in the grand scheme of things, imho.
Again, the rebounding rate tells you that the difference between their rebounds is not that big.
IMHO - it's the assists and TS% - and the reason Rudy shot more 3s is because he got free for one a lot more often than Martel. Rudy moves a lot better without the ball than just about any player on our roster - and this is one of the reasons he gets to shoot these better percentage and higher frequency 3s.
The issue is not "Martel did not get to shoot that many 3s" imho - it's Rudy has a much better BBIQ and situation awareness to make himself available for these extra 3s.
See http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/per.html for details of how PER is calculated - you can see that generally speaking - assists are calculated with a larger constant than rebounds, which makes sense given my analysis above.
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andalusian
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I think that this is a two way street. Sergio Rodriguez played on the same team that Rudy played on last year - and his ORTG or Win-Share is nowhere near as good as Rudy's...
I'm not saying get rid of either...I'd like both to progress and be apart of this team for the long term...I was just talking about the biased there seems to be among fans...Rudy can get away with anything while a lot of people have written Martell off as a 22 year old.
THE HCP
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You know how quickly fans can turn on a player in a good or bad way. People probably think that Martell has had 4 years to prove himself and Rudy is still so new. I think people forget how young Martell and Travis still are. I have always liked Martell, but Rudy is gonna be a very special player and his future is brighter.
Will there ever be a day where everyone who posts here will be content with the entire roster? We have it so good compared to every other team in the NBA. We're here arguing about a 22 and a 24 year old haha. Either player is close to their prime....hopefully. Btw, I'm not disagreeing with you but when do you think Rudy is going to "break out"? He's 24 and has been playing professionally for a while. Martell is only 22.
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Probably not, because no entire roster is perfect. There are always places to hope for improvement.
I know! What crazy, angry poster started this thread? Why does he want to argue about such a great roster?
Probably not, because no entire roster is perfect. There are always places to hope for improvement.
I know! What crazy, angry poster started this thread? Why does he want to argue about such a great roster?
Hahaha damn it.