Exclusive Ayton is agreeing to buyout

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They just didn’t wanna take on more players(contracts/money) for a couple 2nds to trade Ayton. That’s my opinion. I think that is the play with Grant and with Ayton/Jabari/Banton gone we can take back some matching salaries for some players to be happy sitting at the end of the bench in a Grant deal. That’s my guess and yes I think we are gonna have to throw in a future pick.
 
Ok so assuming the holiday trade goes through (which hard caps us) and we buyout ayton for 20 mil because he has a full MLE deal somewhere else, here are the implications:

With an Ayton buyout for $20 million, saving $15.5 million, Portland’s 2025-26 payroll drops to $165.6 million, which is:
- $11.3 million over the salary cap ($154.3 million), so no cap space is available.
- $22.1 million under the luxury tax ($187.7 million).
- $29.7 million under the first apron ($195.3 million, their hard-cap limit).

This opens up:
- Non-Taxpayer MLE: ~$13.2 million, fully available to sign free agents
- Bi-Annual Exception: ~$4.8 million, potentially available (if not used in 2024-25) for another signing.
- Minimum Contracts: Ability to sign multiple players at ~$1.2 million each to fill roster spots, staying well under the hard cap.
- Increased Flexibility: The $15.5 million savings provides $29.7 million under the hard cap, allowing Portland to use the full MLE, potentially the BAE, and multiple minimum contracts without hitting the $195.3 million hard cap, significantly enhancing their free agency options compared to the pre-buyout scenario ($14.2 million under the hard cap).
 
Freshtown said:
Ok so assuming the holiday trade goes through (which hard caps us) and we buyout ayton for 20 mil because he has a full MLE deal somewhere else, here are the implications:

With an Ayton buyout for $20 million, saving $15.5 million, Portland’s 2025-26 payroll drops to $165.6 million, which is:
- $11.3 million over the salary cap ($154.3 million), so no cap space is available.
- $22.1 million under the luxury tax ($187.7 million).
- $29.7 million under the first apron ($195.3 million, their hard-cap limit).

This opens up:
- Non-Taxpayer MLE: ~$13.2 million, fully available to sign free agents (e.g., a quality rotation player).
- Bi-Annual Exception: ~$4.8 million, potentially available (if not used in 2024-25) for another signing.
- Minimum Contracts: Ability to sign multiple players at ~$1.2 million each (e.g., 5-10 players) to fill roster spots, staying well under the hard cap.
- Increased Flexibility: The $15.5 million savings provides $29.7 million under the hard cap, allowing Portland to use the full MLE, potentially the BAE, and multiple minimum contracts without hitting the $195.3 million hard cap, significantly enhancing their free agency options compared to the pre-buyout scenario ($14.2 million under the hard cap).
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This genuinely makes me feel better about this move if 1) we make use of this flexibility by adding talent, 2) Jody actually agrees to spend.

But what is the likelihood of him landing the non-tax MLE?
 
Freshtown said:
Ok so assuming the holiday trade goes through (which hard caps us) and we buyout ayton for 20 mil because he has a full MLE deal somewhere else, here are the implications:

With an Ayton buyout for $20 million, saving $15.5 million, Portland’s 2025-26 payroll drops to $165.6 million, which is:
- $11.3 million over the salary cap ($154.3 million), so no cap space is available.
- $22.1 million under the luxury tax ($187.7 million).
- $29.7 million under the first apron ($195.3 million, their hard-cap limit).

This opens up:
- Non-Taxpayer MLE: ~$13.2 million, fully available to sign free agents
- Bi-Annual Exception: ~$4.8 million, potentially available (if not used in 2024-25) for another signing.
- Minimum Contracts: Ability to sign multiple players at ~$1.2 million each to fill roster spots, staying well under the hard cap.
- Increased Flexibility: The $15.5 million savings provides $29.7 million under the hard cap, allowing Portland to use the full MLE, potentially the BAE, and multiple minimum contracts without hitting the $195.3 million hard cap, significantly enhancing their free agency options compared to the pre-buyout scenario ($14.2 million under the hard cap).
Click to expand...
Thank you for a great break down and it is way better if it works out this way than any lousy expiring we might get back, well done Joe!
 
andalusian said:
I believe we would have been hard capped if the jrue/ant deal goes as is, it probably hasn't because Portland is not ready for that yet
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Yes we are hardcapped at the 1st apron, but we have so much space under it that it's not going to make a difference.
 
Also: Clingan walks into next season as the shoe-in starter. That's fucking great. No dilly-dallying with having to start Ayton and doing the will-he won't he dance during the season to see if Ayton is traded.
 
B-Roy said:
Also: Clingan walks into next season as the shoe-in starter. That's fucking great. No dilly-dallying with having to start Ayton and doing the will-he won't he dance during the season to see if Ayton is traded.
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this is the biggest (likely only) positive from this transaction
 
Charcoal Filtered said:
We took a swing with Ayton and missed. Instead of taking someone else's problem, we take some cap space. Will see how much Ayton gave up but I like the move. Better to admit a mistake than to make it worse.
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Yeah, sunk cost fallacy. Just like the GP2 saga, the FO seems to be willing to move on.
 
Also just to be clear, we would have been able to the use almost all of the MLE without buying out ayton because we are a non taxpayer team, but to do so with ayton and a new MLE guy would have made them only 4-6 mil under the hard cap. Very little room to do anything else.

not that I’m assuming they are going to sign someone to a big MLE contract anyway.
 
B-Roy said:
Also: Clingan walks into next season as the shoe-in starter. That's fucking great. No dilly-dallying with having to start Ayton and doing the will-he won't he dance during the season to see if Ayton is traded.
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Meanwhile Scoot is…… on the bench again?
 
andalusian said:
Yeah, sunk cost fallacy. Just like the GP2 saga, the FO seems to be willing to move on.
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i dunno how you excuse these moves?

they put themselves in these positions. and they waited too long before realizing their mistakes.

ending up with nothing in return is not something i find acceptable.
 
B-Roy said:
Porzingis is a way better player than Ayton. There's a reason a team is willing to gamble on him and not Ayton.
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So you don’t think anyone will gamble on Ayton in the next couple weeks? Didn’t Portland take a gamble on him?
 
illmatic99 said:
i dunno how you excuse these moves?

they put themselves in these positions. and they waited too long before realizing their mistakes.

ending up with nothing in return is not something i find acceptable.
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we got Camara in the NurK deal - WTF else do you want? Take a shit expiring back? now we get cap savings that may allow us to use the full MLE this summer
 
Freshtown said:
Assume this means they canvassed the whole league and found no takers.

a shame we get nothing for him given that despite his money, he is a good player and he is also expiring.
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Joe should have been able to get something for him, Not sure Joe knows how work the phones and deal. He'll say well we really got the player we wanted anyway. I guess its possible Ayton and his agent said lets work something and get me out of here since you drafted centers the last two years.
Path of least resistance Joe.
 
Hoopguru said:
Joe should have been able to get something for him, Not sure Joe knows how work the phones and deal. He'll say well we really got the player we wanted anyway. I guess its possible Ayton and his agent said lets work something and get me out of here since you drafted centers the last two years.
Path of least resistance Joe.
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correct. Joe is not a great deal maker and persuader sales type, a disadvantage for us, and even his most ardent defenders would probably agree. Our path to contention with him is that Schmitz and the assistants end up being amazing talent evaluators and we draft really well and trade for underrated players other teams don’t think as highly of.
 
Blazinaway said:
Guys there is NO STRETCH to this, it's a one season buyout with like additional cap reduction for whatever he signs for elsewhere
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I think we all get it, more like some of us hated it the last time with all the dead money on the cap.
 
Blazinaway said:
wrong again, with teams like Char and LA and perhaps a few others desperate for a C paying Ayton 14 mil is really very reasonable
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the only thing "wrong" is your assertion that LA can pay him 14 mil without having any avenues to do so.

they are a tax team. max they can offer is 5.7.
 
Blazinaway said:
we got Camara in the NurK deal - WTF else do you want? Take a shit expiring back? now we get cap savings that may allow us to use the full MLE this summer
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we could use the full MLE regardless if this move happened or not
 
The only deal he could probably get was to take back worse stuff. I would guess a free agent signing is possible now?
 
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