Baffled and Confounded by the "Hickson Situation"

[TowelBoy]

I'm going to use this post to make the case that Hickson is very good at basketball, so bear with me, folks.

Did you know Hickson leads the Blazers in PER at 20.4, ahead of our perennial All-Star and our two likely-to-be future All-Stars? It's not that close, either. Did you know Hickson checks in at #8 in the NBA for PER among listed centers? Ahead of Cousins, Chandler, Splitter, Monroe, Horford, Pek, Dwight, SANDERS!, et al.? Did you know he's 5th in FG%? Shooting a respectable 69% from the line? Did you know he's 8th in RPG, 5th in RP48? Finally, as I'm sure you DO know, he's 24 years old with top-notch athleticism and motor.

Okay, okay, we know what he's NOT. He's not a "defensive anchor"? He's not a "stopper" or "shot blocker." Frankly, he's a defensive liability. Does that mean he's not a useful player? After seeing many "draft BPA" discussions gravitate toward post players, I couldn't help but think we'd be extremely lucky to get someone as good as Hickson in the late lottery.

With all that said, you don't have to convince me of Hickson's lack of value around the league. The trade deadline fully convinced me (reports were we dropped our asking price to a 2nd rounder??). But if his value around the league is really as low as the trade deadline indicated, I'm starting to find a way to hope we keep him. Hickson is awesome in the pick and roll and is a skilled post player, and he gobbles up rebounds out of nowhere.

At worst, isn't he like the post version of no-defense 6th man scorers like JR Smith and Jamal Crawford? Isn't he a poor man's version of superstar no-defense post players like Amar'e Stoudemire and Blake Griffin? No contender thought it might be worth a 2nd round pick to add him down the stretch?

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Don't have to convince me. I have wanted to keep him for a long time.

Backup PF (and C in small lineups) off the bench for 5.6-5.9 MIL a year would be just fine with me. I think that contract is doable now. People were saying he would get 9 a year earlier in the season.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

 

[magnifier661]

Good case. You will hear replies of how he puts up good numbers; but allows average centers put up nearly the same numbers against him. Others will say the team rebounding suffers when he is on the floor.

Personally, I think he should stay. I do understand the other concerns though.

 

[Haakzilla]

Don't have to convince me. I have wanted to keep him for a long time.

Backup PF (and C in small lineups) off the bench for 5.6-5.9 MIL a year would be just fine with me. I think that contract is doable now. People were saying he would get 9 a year earlier in the season.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

...this! He is the perfect "banger" off the bench that this team has so desperately needed for quite some time now. C'mon Neil-O, get it done!

 

[TowelBoy]

Don't have to convince me. I have wanted to keep him for a long time.

Backup PF (and C in small lineups) off the bench for 5.6-5.9 MIL a year would be just fine with me. I think that contract is doable now. People were saying he would get 9 a year earlier in the season.

Not. Gonna. Happen.

Heck, we may already be using him wrong. Maybe we should start Leonard alongside Aldridge but still plan on Leonard and Hickson getting around 24 mpg apiece. I think Hickson would be even more effective carrying us through our second-unit scoring droughts.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Heck, we may already be using him wrong. Maybe we should start Leonard alongside Aldridge but still plan on Leonard and Hickson getting around 24 mpg apiece. I think Hickson would be even more effective carrying us through our second-unit scoring droughts.

I thought that was something that might happen after the deadline but it seems POR is just going to give more minutes for Leonard but not start him. Can't argue with that either. He is improving but not ready.

 

[BlazerWookee]

I'm thinking that it wasn't low value that kept him from being traded, it was the fact that he kept himself from being traded to a team for whom he did not want to play.

How's school treating you, Towelie? Good to see you...

 

[Mediocre Man]

Did you know Hickson leads the Blazers in PER at 20.4, ahead of our perennial All-Star and our two likely-to-be future All-Stars? It's not that close, either. Did you know Hickson checks in at #8 in the NBA for PER among listed centers? Ahead of Cousins, Chandler, Splitter, Monroe, Horford, Pek, Dwight, SANDERS!, et al.? Did you know he's 5th in FG%? Shooting a respectable 69% from the line? Did you know he's 8th in RPG, 5th in RP48? Finally, as I'm sure you DO know, he's 24 years old with top-notch athleticism and motor.

Ya. Aldridge has a PER of +2.4 at PF and a +14.4 at C vs his opponent, and JJ has a PER of -3.7 at PF and +.8 at C. So yay, it's higher, but he gives a lot more as well. Not even close I believe is the term you used.

Hickson grabs a lot of rebounds, but the Blazers actually rebound better than their opponents when he is not on the floor.

Yep, great motor in a contract year. A player that has been traded once, released once and was unable to find a team to give him any more than a 1 year 4mm deal

Oka y, okay, we know what he's NOT. He's not a "defensive anchor"? He's not a "stopper" or "shot blocker." Frankly, he's a defensive liability. Does that mean he's not a useful player? After seeing many "draft BPA" discussions gravitate toward post players, I couldn't help but think we'd be extremely lucky to get someone as good as Hickson in the late lottery.

If JJ wants to re-sign with us for lottery money I am all for it.

With all that said, you don't have to convince me of Hickson's lack of value around the league. The trade deadline fully convinced me (reports were we dropped our asking price to a 2nd rounder??). But if his value around the league is really as low as the trade deadline indicated, I'm starting to find a way to hope we keep him. Hickson is awesome in the pick and roll and is a skilled post player, and he gobbles up rebounds out of nowhere.

So you want a player no one else sees any value in?

At worst, isn't he like the post version of no-defense 6th man scorers like JR Smith and Jamal Crawford? Isn't he a poor man's version of superstar no-defense post players like Amar'e Stoudemire and Blake Griffin? No contender thought it might be worth a 2nd round pick to add him down the stretch?

At worst he is a defensive sieve who doesn't command a double, unlike Amare or Griffin who no one in the entire league wanted for any sort of an asset.

 

[blue9]

At worst he is a defensive sieve ...

Then what does that make LMA? Their defensive rating is essentially the same (slight edge to Hickson), and Hickson is guarding players he's physically incapable of guarding, whereas LMA is always given the easiest defensive assignment on the court.
http://www.basketball-reference.com...m=0&p1=aldrila01&y1=2013&p2=hicksjj01&y2=2013

 

[TowelBoy]

I'm thinking that it wasn't low value that kept him from being traded, it was the fact that he kept himself from being traded to a team for whom he did not want to play.

How's school treating you, Towelie? Good to see you...

You could have a valid point about him exercising his veto behind the scenes. Everything's great. Still don't know if I can get used to this message board format, but here I am.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Then what does that make LMA? Their defensive rating is essentially the same (slight edge to Hickson), and Hickson is guarding players he's physically incapable of guarding, whereas LMA is always given the easiest defensive assignment on the court.
http://www.basketball-reference.com...m=0&p1=aldrila01&y1=2013&p2=hicksjj01&y2=2013

Defensive rating is a misleading stat.

LMA is also not a very good defender.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I agree with all. JJ is a perfect off the bench player and I'm very high on keeping him.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Defensive rating is a misleading stat.

LMA is also not a very good defender.

And the stats you're spouting off aren't?

 

[blue9]

Defensive rating is a misleading stat.

LMA is also not a very good defender.

Agreed. But it's also misleading to dismiss Hickson's rebounding by saying the team is better at rebounding without him. That shouldn't detract from Hickson. Rather it should tell you that his teammates don't put enough effort in when Hickson is on the floor.

 

[Mediocre Man]

And the stats you're spouting off aren't?

PER for and against and the Blazers being better at rebounding without JJ on the floor? I don't think so?


PER is by no means the end all be all stat, but I feel it's more important than D rating. Batum's D rating is 108, 3 points lower than Hickson. Damon Stoudamire of all people had a higher D rating than Batum's 108 several times

 

[Mediocre Man]

Agreed. But it's also misleading to dismiss Hickson's rebounding by saying the team is better at rebounding without him. That shouldn't detract from Hickson. Rather it should tell you that his teammates don't put enough effort in when Hickson is on the floor.

Ya, it could mean that. It could also mean JJ is rarely in the right place on rotations.

I feel if a player was as good as his stats have "shown" him to be, he would not have been traded from Cleveland, nor would he have been released from Sacramento after they were unable to fine ANYONE willing to take him, nor would he have had to settle for a 1 years deal with Portland last year

 

[BlazerWookee]

...it should tell you that his teammates don't put enough effort in when Hickson is on the floor.

Or that he rebounds so well that his teammates can afford to (and are instructed to) leak out on the break rather than crash the boards hard...

 

[BlazerWookee]

Ya, it could mean that. It could also mean JJ is rarely in the right place on rotations.

I feel if a player was as good as his stats have "shown" him to be, he would not have been traded from Cleveland, nor would he have been released from Sacramento after they were unable to fine ANYONE willing to take him, nor would he have had to settle for a 1 years deal with Portland last year

I thought SAC waived him as part of a wink-wink deal with another team, and we surprised both teams by snatching him up?

 

[Mediocre Man]

I thought SAC waived him as part of a wink-wink deal with another team, and we surprised both teams by snatching him up?

Nope

GS was going to sign him, and JJ was all excited to go there, but Portland signed him instead.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

PER for and against and the Blazers being better at rebounding without JJ on the floor? I don't think so?


PER is by no means the end all be all stat, but I feel it's more important than D rating. Batum's D rating is 108, 3 points lower than Hickson. Damon Stoudamire of all people had a higher D rating than Batum's 108 several times

Batum isn't very good at defense either

 

[magnifier661]

I definitely can see MM's point regarding Hickson. In some ways I've had the same concerns. It would be different if Hickson was like Brain Grant; that played great post defense to go alone with that amazing rebounding. My only knock on Hickson is his defense. I know that he is a far inferior defender. Even less of a defender than Aldridge. Doesn't mean that he can't defend though.

i've seen a few times when he went one on one with a player that pissed him off and played some great defense in spurts. If he just developed a better defensive skill; he would be a max type player at PF. I think if there is anything he should work on this off-season; it's gotta be the D.

So my final word is I wouldn't mind having Hickson or trading him. Even if he walks, I would understand why. Regardless, he has the skills to be a elite type player if he just focused and had the drive to be one. I think him and Aldridge need to improve that area of their game this off-season, IMO.

 

[DaLincolnJones]

Good case. You will hear replies of how he puts up good numbers; but allows average centers put up nearly the same numbers against him. Others will say the team rebounding suffers when he is on the floor.

Personally, I think he should stay. I do understand the other concerns though.

This is a great thread

This is the most telling statement in here, a 20 per guy that gets his lunch eaten on D as a center..HEY GUESS WHAT! the guy is a four, or a small five, for lack of a true, developed NBA center, he plays the five for us

 

[BlazerWookee]

Batum isn't very good at defense either

That statement isn't just irrational, it's borderline insane.

 

[Mediocre Man]

This is a great thread

This is the most telling statement in here, a 20 per guy that gets his lunch eaten on D as a center..HEY GUESS WHAT! the guy is a four, or a small five, for lack of a true, developed NBA center, he plays the five for us

The guy got his lunch handed to him at the 4 well throughout his career

15.2 for and 17.4 against as a 4 in Cleveland in 09-10

14.5 for and 17.6 against as a 4 in Cleveland in 10-11

JJ is an average player on a good team who gives up way more than he brings.

JJ is a good player on a bad team who gives up a little less than he brings

 

[Mediocre Man]

That statement isn't just irrational, it's borderline insane.

It's numbers, Wook. You statement is far more irrational than his

 

[blue9]

I use to give the (slight) nod to LMA on defense, but now I'm not so sure. Both are abysmally poor at team/help defense, so we'll just call that a wash. As far as man-defense I use to think LMA was adequate, and thus I thought he was a better defender than Hickson. But recently I've been watching them on the defensive end and there are two things that have at least equalized them, if not pushed Hickson slightly ahead:
1 - Hickson is TRYING. When he's guarding a guy with the ball he is engaged and working hard to stop the ball. LMA doesn't seem to put forth much energy on defense. He occasionally makes a nice poke at the ball, tipping it out for a steal, but he's not digging down and putting forth a gritty defensive effort.
2 - Hickson is guarding guys he's physically incapable of guarding while LMA is generally given the easiest defensive assignment on the floor. Makes the comparison that much more tough - this isn't apples to apples.
Since both are doing a poor job, but one of them has a very tough job and the other has a relatively easy job, I'm apt to give the nod to the guy trying hard in a tough match-up.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I use to give the (slight) nod to LMA on defense, but now I'm not so sure. Both are abysmally poor at team/help defense, so we'll just call that a wash. As far as man-defense I use to think LMA was adequate, and thus I thought he was a better defender than Hickson. But recently I've been watching them on the defensive end and there are two things that have at least equalized them, if not pushed Hickson slightly ahead:
1 - Hickson is TRYING. When he's guarding a guy with the ball he is engaged and working hard to stop the ball. LMA doesn't seem to put forth much energy on defense. He occasionally makes a nice poke at the ball, tipping it out for a steal, but he's not digging down and putting forth a gritty defensive effort.
2 - Hickson is guarding guys he's physically incapable of guarding while LMA is generally given the easiest defensive assignment on the floor. Makes the comparison that much more tough - this isn't apples to apples.
Since both are doing a poor job, but one of them has a very tough job and the other has a relatively easy job, I'm apt to give the nod to the guy trying hard in a tough match-up.

I don't know who is better or who is worse but I do know they both need to improve.

LMA needs to step it up for sure since he is practically guaranteed to be here next year.

 

[TowelBoy]

The guy got his lunch handed to him at the 4 well throughout his career

15.2 for and 17.4 against as a 4 in Cleveland in 09-10

14.5 for and 17.6 against as a 4 in Cleveland in 10-11

JJ is an average player on a good team who gives up way more than he brings.

JJ is a good player on a bad team who gives up a little less than he brings

He looks like a heck of a player to me. I really think the metrics would support that if he was put in the right situation. I was shocked an elite defensive contender like Chicago or Indiana didn't want to bring him in for 20 mpg alongside an anchor like Noah or Hibbert.

I don't disagree with your premise that keeping him next year depends a lot on price. I throw my entire OP out the window if he starts talking about $10M. But at a slightly higher cost than a mid-first rounder? I think that's a good investment.

 

[magnifier661]

I use to give the (slight) nod to LMA on defense, but now I'm not so sure. Both are abysmally poor at team/help defense, so we'll just call that a wash. As far as man-defense I use to think LMA was adequate, and thus I thought he was a better defender than Hickson. But recently I've been watching them on the defensive end and there are two things that have at least equalized them, if not pushed Hickson slightly ahead:
1 - Hickson is TRYING. When he's guarding a guy with the ball he is engaged and working hard to stop the ball. LMA doesn't seem to put forth much energy on defense. He occasionally makes a nice poke at the ball, tipping it out for a steal, but he's not digging down and putting forth a gritty defensive effort.
2 - Hickson is guarding guys he's physically incapable of guarding while LMA is generally given the easiest defensive assignment on the floor. Makes the comparison that much more tough - this isn't apples to apples.
Since both are doing a poor job, but one of them has a very tough job and the other has a relatively easy job, I'm apt to give the nod to the guy trying hard in a tough match-up.

That's all fine and dandy; but Hickson was having the same troubles with other PFs out there. Look at MM's advanced stats against other PFs. I remembered his lunch being handed to him when he tried defending Griffin and Lee. Just because he plays center on Portland doesn't mean he doesn't have stats that support his ineffective defense on other PFs.

Now on the flip-side; Aldridge is actually a much better defender at Center. If that guy would just stop being so prissy and say "Fuck it man I'm a center!" and we can really use him the right way.

Aldridge is doing everything a center does on the court but play defense against the centers in the league. His advanced stats actually show him playing much better D against other centers he's up against.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Defensive rating is a misleading stat.

LMA is also not a very good defender.

You use stats to show a double double player is not very good . . . while also saying other stats are misleading.

I agree with half of what you say . . . stats are misleading.