Batum trade revisited

[PtldPlatypus]

To be better.

Short term gain, long term loss. Being good this year was never the goal.

 

[blue9]

But if we were going to lose Batum at the end of the season, what would the point of "being better with him" have been?

Some people say that the better we do the more likely we are to sign top tier free agents. Mind you, I am not one of those people.
Also, even though I think it goes without saying that we'd be better had we kept Nic, the thing I keep coming back to is that I believe we could have gotten a better trade offer had we waited longer. Maybe not, and there's no way to prove one way or the other, but I feel we sold low on him.

 

[Pinwheel1]

If the Euro league was the world's best league and all of the USA's best players played over there we would lose our minds if the Lebrons and Durants didn't play for Team USA.

I have mixed emotions on international play. On one hand I am not sold that they exert any more energy each day than they would playing in summer league in Atlanta, Houston, or Los Angeles every year.

However on the hand, the Euros are a little more fanatical about their yearly completion. It would be one thing if it was just played every 4 years, but these guys go at it hard every summer. And in a way I applaud them for being so patriotic. American Players have it easier because they can take off a year and always have ample replacements available. So it's no big deal if they miss a year.

But I do agree with OB in the sense that at some point you have to put the team who actually pays you a head of your country. We have seen Tony Parker and Dirk do that when needed. There are other things in their contract that they are not allowed to do because they could get hurt. They all have guaranteed contracts and should be practical about it. If you keep getting hurt or just plain worn down every season, then you need to be responsible for your body and take the summer off and rest.

 

[Draco]

There us a subtle little myth about teams having the "Max" Salary Slots. Teams only have that much if they renounce their bird rights to their own free agents. Portland is a fantastic example. $46 mill in cap space if they renounce and let walk Leonard, Henderson, Harkless, Crabbe, Roberts and Kaman. So while it's awesome to say there are 32 max slots available to free agents this summer we have to remember that in order for most those teams to have the "max" salary available they will have to cut ties with their own free agents.

Yeah its basically a game of musical chairs. Think of the salary slots as chairs. There's a lot more chairs than people. If we plug a player in one teams chair it opens up a chair with another team.

Our Blazers are in a unique group with the Thunder, Warriors, Hornets where we like our own free agents and can just bring back the same roster and have a decent offseason.

But many teams aren't so lucky with quality incumbent free agents. Say teams all keep their own free agents if that players is worthy of their cap hold. We still have teams such as the Lakers, Celtics, Nets, Knicks, Magic with way more cap room than value in players under cap holds. There will be a half dozen teams with a musical chair and nobody sitting in it; that's when very undeserving players will all get max contracts.

 

[jlprk]

A year ago the question was, who should ineffectively take a third of the dribbling away from Lillard...Batum or Barton? This year, the answer was...neither. Let a real shooter do it, McCollum. We replaced Batum with McCollum. With Batum still here, McCollum would have to play catch-and-shoot like Crabbe.

 

[andalusian]

You keep coming back to the paycheck, as if that is what buys loyalty. Basically you're saying you're a mercenary.

Which by definition is the opposite of loyalty. If you are a mercenary, expecting you to be loyal to the "cause" is against the definition of being a mercenary. So either way, Nic was right to play for his country in his "free" time.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Some people say that the better we do the more likely we are to sign top tier free agents. Mind you, I am not one of those people.
Also, even though I think it goes without saying that we'd be better had we kept Nic, the thing I keep coming back to is that I believe we could have gotten a better trade offer had we waited longer. Maybe not, and there's no way to prove one way or the other, but I feel we sold low on him.

We probably did sell low, but if you noticed, there was not much of a market at the trade deadline this year, especially for expiring contracts. I mean, would you have preferred something like what Orlando got for Tobias Harris--an old Ersan Ilyasova and a broken Brandon Jennings?

 

[jlprk]

If you can help out a newbie. My Sons favorite Blazer was Batum and says we got fleeced on this trade. I'm in Hawaii and we don't get much TV on the blazers but do keep up with the Net on how they are doing. Still without much seeing with the eye ball test it's hard to assess. How do you all feel about the trade at this point? After watching Henderson and Vonlehs play. Why could we not have kept Batum instead and offer him an appropriate contract for his play? Thank you in advance for the response!

Introduce your son to the concept of Montero. Montero is already better than a rookie Barton, and will soon be at the rookie Batum stage.

The Dominican hails from a warm island.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

Short term gain, long term loss. Being good this year was never the goal.

I get that, but I don't think we can be sure that the trade will be a long term gain, and I'm one of the people who thinks being better should always be the goal.

 

[B-Roy]

A year ago the question was, who should ineffectively take a third of the dribbling away from Lillard...Batum or Barton? This year, the answer was...neither. Let a real shooter do it, McCollum. We replaced Batum with McCollum. With Batum still here, McCollum would have to play catch-and-shoot like Crabbe.

McCollum plays catch and shoot with Lillard, and is lethal.

McCollum is 47% shooting the three in the 3 month period from March-Present, and being assisted on over 80% of those shots.

He's JJ Redick on threes right now.

 

[Draco]

But if we were going to lose Batum at the end of the season, what would the point of "being better with him" have been?

Eventually we'll lose every player on this team. There isn't anybody from 4 years ago on this roster.

There's a balance between looking at what a player provides in the moment and what future value they could have down the road. Just because a player may leave for nothing doesn't mean they should be traded for anything of the smallest value.

 

[Draco]

We probably did sell low, but if you noticed, there was not much of a market at the trade deadline this year, especially for expiring contracts. I mean, would you have preferred something like what Orlando got for Tobias Harris--an old Ersan Ilyasova and a broken Brandon Jennings?

Memphis got a first round pick for crappy Jeff Green. Batum could've got more than that.

Vonleh seemed like a reasonable acquisition at the time. Just sucks he's had such a disappointing season. It's a gamble with these prospects and this one we appear to have lost.

 

[42N8Bounce]

So lets say we keep the rights to everyone but Kaman, how much is left for a big offer?

Guaranteed:
$21,109,000 Lillard
$7,680,965 Aminu
$6,666,667 Davis
$3,219,579 McCollum
$2,751,360 Vonleh
$2,328,530 Plumlee
$874,636 Connaughton
$2,029,199 Varejao (stretched)
$46,659,936 Guaranteed

Non-Guaranteed:
$874,636 Montero
$874,636 Alexander
$1,749,272 Non-Guaranteed

Cap Holds:
$9,000,000 Henderson
$7,689,700 Leonard (restricted)
$7,235,148 Harkless (restricted)
$6,520,800 Kaman
$3,711,422 Roberts
$1,215,696 Crabbe (restricted)
$35,372,766 CAP Holds

Assuming the CAP is at $92M:
- If we bring everyone back except Kaman, we'll have $14,738,826 in room.
- If we bring everyone back except Kaman and Roberts, we'll have $18,450,248 in room.

Approximate max salaries:
0-6 yr vet (25% of CAP): $21,564,143
7-9 yr vet (30% of CAP): $25,876,971
10+ yr vet (35% of CAP): $30,189,800

If we want to get to that $25,876,971 spot to make a max offer, we need to find another $7.5M. Of course everything depends upon timing. Crabbe will get more than his CAP hold, so his signing would need to happen after any other max offer we try to make, since we can go over the cap to match offers for our restricted free agents.

 

[B-Roy]

$6,666,667 Davis
.

Ed Davis is the devil confirmed. No wonder he loves Portland.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Neil had a good idea of what was coming, and knew he needed a big athletic SG to replace Wes, and a young PF to replace LMA. So he traded someone who was coming off a bad year, for both. No doubt we still have holes on this team, but again...we can still re-sign Hendo AND go after Nic this summer. And as for Vonleh.....how many PF's in this draft are better? Maybe two?

Granted the Clippers are going to trap the hell out of us and we will be screaming for some help from our SF, but they trapped the hell out of us the last two years and we had Nic. So although he might be better than what we currently have, we would still need an upgrade at that position in order to get to the next level. And I am not sure we would be willing to dish out 20 million for him this summer if he would have played for us this year. Why? Because rarely are we totally satisfied with any of our players. We certainly bitched about him all last year.

 

[B-Roy]

Neil had a good idea of what was coming, and knew he needed a big athletic SG to replace Wes, and a young PF to replace LMA. So he traded someone who was coming off a bad year, for both. No doubt we still have holes on this team, but again...we can still re-sign Hendo AND go after Nic this summer. And as for Vonleh.....how many PF's in this draft are better? Maybe two?

Granted the Clippers are going to trap the hell out of us and we will be screaming for some help from our SF, but they trapped the hell out of us the last two years and we had Nic. So although he might be better than what we currently have, we would still need an upgrade at that position in order to get to the next level. And I am not sure we would be willing to dish out 20 million for him this summer if he would have played for us this year. Why? Because rarely are we totally satisfied with any of our players. We certainly bitched about him all last year.

Nic had some of his best outings against the Clippers.

 

[Pinwheel1]

If we want to get to that $25,876,971 spot to make a max offer, we need to find another $7.5M. Of course everything depends upon timing. Crabbe will get more than his CAP hold, so his signing would need to happen after any other max offer we try to make, since we can go over the cap to match offers for our restricted free agents.

Thanks for posting that. So one of the top 3 cap holds is sufficient enough to renounce..... in order to get in the 25 million range.

 

[Blazers Roy]

It helps having two good ballhanders on the court at the same time though. Right now we have two good ballhandlers period, and they often play staggered minutes.

Look at Golden State, with Livingston, Iggy, Draymond, and Curry. They can keep their offense humming along even if they don't have Draymond or Curry in the game.

Agreed, but GS got those guys for a bargain price, even Curry makes pennies compared to what he should be making.
We can't slice the salary pie like that with Batum and his agent.

 

[Blazers Roy]

What player performs as well injured as when healthy? Of course the answer is no one and it's pathetic/disingenuous to hold up performance when playing through an injury as an example of what sort of player is. Of course it was reported last year that Nic tore a ligament in the wrist of his shooting hand in December of last season.

Last season Nic shot a career low 32% from deep. Before this season Aminu had never shot 32% from 3s in his 5 year career. 2015-16 stats from 3's... Batum 35% Aminu 36%

btw, Larry Legend's career 3 point % is 38%

nice strawman. No one will be paying Nic anything close to that and no one has contended that the Blazers should

STOMP

So after all those years of playing NBA and international basketball and all his past injuries you predict he'll be healthier after age 28?
Injuries are part of any players' identity.

It's not only about his injuries too, when you look at the amount of effort guys like Aminu and Harkless put out there every night how can you really miss Batum??

And about his upcoming salary: Nic is having great stats this year and is perceived to be the guy who made the Hornets a lot better.
Keeping supply and demand in mind, it is totally reasonable to predict a max offer thrown at guys like Batum,Barnes and Ryan Anderson.

 

[Blazers Roy]

He has yet to be a free agent. NOBODY has paid him big bucks yet. So talking about that when we're talking about the year that has passed is a red herring.

You are fully aware that high stock players are usually getting more money than predicted during regular season.

 

[dviss1]

Where are Aminu's stats?

AMINU
GP MPG FG% RPG APG BLKPG STPG PFPG PPG
10 30.2 .470 7.2 1.9 1.0 1.2 1.7 13.9

NIC
GP MPG FG% RPG APG BLKPG STPG PFPG PPG
8 31.6 .442 5.3 6.4 0.1 0.8 1.8 15.6

So your right, he hasn't outperformed Nic, but is pretty much on par. So Vonleh was basically a freebie. This was a great trade.

What? We traded Nic for Henderson and Vonleh.

 

[dviss1]

He's French.

So is Rudy Gobert and you'd love to have him....

 

[dviss1]

Ahem - Derrick Rose?
And what if Paul George plays for Team USA after that horrible injury he got while playing for his country? Good thing Orion doesn't want George on our team, or he might be a hypocrite.

ANYONE advocating for somehow drafting Sabonis' son while simultaneously admonishing Batum is a hypocrite too.

 

[jlprk]

McCollum plays catch and shoot with Lillard, and is lethal.

McCollum is 47% shooting the three in the 3 month period from March-Present, and being assisted on over 80% of those shots.

He's JJ Redick on threes right now.

McCollum is a great dribbler, which Batum, Matthews, and Crabbe are not. Of course he sometimes catches and shoots, but he doesn't have to, like the others. We improved by replacing Batum with McCollum as our #2 playmaker, and could not have done so had Batum stayed and continuing demanding being the #2.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

ANYONE advocating for somehow drafting Sabonis' son while simultaneously admonishing Batum is a hypocrite too.

Until Sabonis has suffered injuries in international play that affected his ability to play for the team by which he is compensated, this statement is premature.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

ANYONE advocating for somehow drafting Sabonis' son while simultaneously admonishing Batum is a hypocrite too.

Sabonis' son was born in Portland.

Why do you hate America?

And Team USA?

 

[dviss1]

Sabonis' son was born in Portland.

Why do you hate America?

And Team USA?

He'd play for Lithuania. But I'm sure I'm being Captain Obvious.

 

[jlprk]

When McCollum dribbles, his defender must defend against both his shot and pass. When Batum dribbles out there looking to pass, his defender must look only for the pass. And the pass is less likely to succeed, since McCollum can dribble right into the action while Batum must pass in from a distance or he'll clumsily lose the ball.

Last season, Lillard would look frustrated as Batum would bring it downcourt, half-speed because he had to bend over to his knees to avoid the steal, missing possibilities that Lillard beckoned to him were opening and closing, then finally tossing it to a real playmaker out at the 3-point line with most of the 24 seconds used up.

Other than Magic and LeBron, there just haven't been many really good dribbling playmakers at 6 foot 9.

 

[craigehlo]

You seriously think that this team is better with Aminu rather than Batum? That's... a bold assertion.

The style of play totally opened up with a new SF as a starter. I've seen plenty of the Hornets on League Pass this year and Batum is the same guy that totally frustrated Blazer fans. Passes up wide open shots and pulls the ball back on the break.

 

[blue9]

The style of play totally opened up with a new SF as a starter. I've seen plenty of the Hornets on League Pass this year and Batum is the same guy that totally frustrated Blazer fans. Passes up wide open shots and pulls the ball back on the break.

Two things we ALL wish Aminu did - LOL!
(Also, I think the "style of play totally opened up" because we no longer have a ball-dominant, jump-shooting PF who required being the leading shot-taker on the team, not because we changed from a Rich Man's Batum to a Poor Man's Batum.)