Bernie endorses rape?

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Denny Crane said:
It could be raining a mile away from you and for miles and miles.

You are making a silly analogy again. It's like you don't see anyone in your back yard so there aren't any people anywhere. Or if you see two people, there are only two anywhere on the planet.

The truth that is subjective to you is clearly going to be distorted by your biases. Asking a group of people smooths out such biases.

The polls deliberately don't ask only you and a people within a small radius of you their poll questions for good reason.
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Bull....I've asked a lot of folks about the Trump issue and they matter as much as the group you follow. I am good at gauging the weather patterns thanks to my farmer father and his knowledge of clouds and bird patterns. The weather reports are not accurate very often. Truth is subjective to everyone based on their distorted biases including you. Calling my views silly and pointless is just being contentious.
 
riverman said:
Bull....I've asked a lot of folks about the Trump issue and they matter as much as the group you follow. I am good at gauging the weather patterns thanks to my farmer father and his knowledge of clouds and bird patterns. The weather reports are not accurate very often. Truth is subjective to everyone based on their distorted biases including you. Calling my views silly and pointless is just being contentious.
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Your "asking people" isn't at all scientific. It's meaningless, almost entirely.

Your analogies are silly and your demonstrated knowledge of polling is flawed.

Your opinions are not something I've criticized along those lines.
 
riverman said:
Bull....I've asked a lot of folks about the Trump issue and they matter as much as the group you follow. I am good at gauging the weather patterns thanks to my farmer father and his knowledge of clouds and bird patterns. The weather reports are not accurate very often. Truth is subjective to everyone based on their distorted biases including you. Calling my views silly and pointless is just being contentious.
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This statement coming from an atheist is an oxymoron
 
Denny Crane said:
Your "asking people" isn't at all scientific. It's meaningless, almost entirely.

Your analogies are silly and your demonstrated knowledge of polling is flawed.

Your opinions are not something I've criticized along those lines.
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On the contrary, asking people about this election in your own demographic is very real and important. You can choose not to value it or find my analogies uninteresting. Great thing about choice.
 
riverman said:
On the contrary, asking people about this election in your own demographic is very real and important. You can choose not to value it or find my analogies uninteresting. Great thing about choice.
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Your sample is unscientific. All you learn is your neighbors are liberal or whatever. You probably knew that before you even talked to them.

Hell, if you asked your neighbors Obama or Romney before last election, you'd probably predict Obama win with 90% of the vote.

Even the most inaccurate polls were within the margin of error when wrong.
 
I seem to remember Silver being a bumbling idiot and Denny having all the polls figured out last time.

Until it was the exact opposite.
 
Denny Crane said:
Your sample is unscientific. All you learn is your neighbors are liberal or whatever. You probably knew that before you even talked to them.

Hell, if you asked your neighbors Obama or Romney before last election, you'd probably predict Obama win with 90% of the vote.

Even the most inaccurate polls were within the margin of error when wrong.
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Hell of a lot of assuming generality and stereotype. My local community is pretty diverse.
 
3RA1N1AC said:
I seem to remember Silver being a bumbling idiot and Denny having all the polls figured out last time.

Until it was the exact opposite.
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Silver used the polls, no?

I never thought Silver was stupid. Biased, sure.
 
riverman said:
Hell of a lot of assuming generality and stereotype. My local community is pretty diverse.
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The polls tell me what your neighborhood is like. The elections, too.
 
riverman said:
agnostic...learn the game, then post..you want respect for your beliefs? I give you that, one would expect the same in return
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That's even worse. Agnostics are supposed to be the logical of the bunch. The fact you discredit true science and trust in farmers sniffing the air and watch how their dogs lick their balls for weather condition goes against the concept of agnosticism
 
You people should quit fighting and get on the Hillary train!
 
magnifier661 said:
That's even worse. Agnostics are supposed to be the logical of the bunch. The fact you discredit true science and trust in farmers sniffing the air and watch how their dogs lick their balls for weather condition goes against the concept of agnosticism
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Spoken like a truly fake Christian...disrespect my father, farmers, judge my opinion of science, trash my belief system. You are starting to sound like Trump
 
Denny Crane said:
The polls say two things about trump that matter to me at this point.

First, he's got roughly 33% popularity among republicans, probably near zero among democrats.

Second, as he's made his "blunders" and so on, he's become more popular. The polls measure him going from sub 10% popularity to by far the most popular among republicans right now. None of those "blunders" or debate performance have decreased his popularity. It's only gotten stronger.

Also, those pundits who made similar predictions as you, all along, have been wrong all along, so far.

FWIW

Again, I'm not at all a Trump supporter. I think he's clearly intelligent and able to talk without a teleprompter, and he's not taking campaign donations. Those things in his favor.
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Just so you get where I'm coming from, I'm saying what I think may happen, but it's far from a prediction since I don't have any solid information to base my thoughts on. You are totally correct that so far all prognostications about a Trump downfall have been ill conceived at best. But that does not mean they will not eventually pan out. The way I see it, we have three groups of DT supporters whom I expect may waver as time goes on. 1) true conservatives who at the moment are just happy to support someone who is speaking against the establishments but eventually will pay closer attention to many of DT's political stances that don't align with theirs. 2) Folks who eventually start feeling his blustery, insulting talk isn't as much refreshing as it is offensive. Often this won't happen till he insults something they specifically care about. 3) Republicans who may like Trump but who start to fear that his demeanor will turn off independents and Reagan Democrats in the general election. I don't feel confident that this will happen, but I do think these groups are at risk of turning away from Trump. Only time will tell.
 
If only it had been published in Ron Paul's newsletter...
 
Further said:
Just so you get where I'm coming from, I'm saying what I think may happen, but it's far from a prediction since I don't have any solid information to base my thoughts on. You are totally correct that so far all prognostications about a Trump downfall have been ill conceived at best. But that does not mean they will not eventually pan out. The way I see it, we have three groups of DT supporters whom I expect may waver as time goes on. 1) true conservatives who at the moment are just happy to support someone who is speaking against the establishments but eventually will pay closer attention to many of DT's political stances that don't align with theirs. 2) Folks who eventually start feeling his blustery, insulting talk isn't as much refreshing as it is offensive. Often this won't happen till he insults something they specifically care about. 3) Republicans who may like Trump but who start to fear that his demeanor will turn off independents and Reagan Democrats in the general election. I don't feel confident that this will happen, but I do think these groups are at risk of turning away from Trump. Only time will tell.
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I'm fine with you reading tea leaves, tarot cards, or whatever it is you do to predict the future.

That's a sort of sphincter test. How much does it twitch when you think about it.

Polls are scientific and objective, unless completely botched.
 
Denny Crane said:
I'm fine with you reading tea leaves, tarot cards, or whatever it is you do to predict the future.

That's a sort of sphincter test. How much does it twitch when you think about it.

Polls are scientific and objective, unless completely botched.
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Yes, but polls don't say what will come, they say what is currently or what has occurred. You put a bunch of polls together and of course you can make some predictions but whenever we are dealing with new circumstances the predictions will be less reliable. Trump is a new situation. I can't think of anyone who was able to be as brash and insulting and yet still gain popularity.

Yes, I'm reading tea leaves and in no way basing my semi-predictions on scientific data. But that doesn't mean having a good grasp of sociology can't help inform your assertions. We shall see what happens, I' not confident in my predictions, specifically because Trump has proven so many wrong so many times.

But don't read more into the polls than they say either. Trump is doing well, but he is not even at 1/3 of the republicans, so there are lots of room for other candidates to gain followers as some of the gigantic field fades away. We shall see what happens. Personally I would like Trump to win over just about any other republican for several reasons, 1) he's entertaining, 2) He is very vulnerable in the general, 3) he is not a religious zealot so even if he somehow makes his way into office, I don't think he would be as damaging as most of the others.
 
Denny Crane said:
I'm fine with you reading tea leaves, tarot cards, or whatever it is you do to predict the future.

That's a sort of sphincter test. How much does it twitch when you think about it.

Polls are scientific and objective, unless completely botched.
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Also, just because opinions are based on information other than scientific polls doesn't mean they are built on fallacy or whim. Your comparison of my prognostications to tarot cards or tea leaves assumes that the opinions are built on no valid information. Perhaps I can't substantiate them like I could if they were based on polling data or a census, but the opinions are based on putting together a complicated puzzle that includes people I have talked to, opinions of pundits, understanding of sociology and my grasp of the American pathos. The lines might not be as easy to draw as a Quinnipiac poll, but the lines do exist.

We shall see who is right. If Trump makes it all the way to general, then you shall be right. Otherwise, your over-religance on the polls will have failed you.
 
George Gallup bet money on this one and lost
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The 1948 Presidential Election

1948 - Truman runs against Thomas E. Dewey, the Republican nominee in the 1948 presidential election. The scientific pollsters, including George Gallup, all predicted that Dewey would beat Truman. (Gallup had won a dramatic bet by correctly predicting the outcome of the 1936 election.) Newspapers were so sure the pollsters were right that they printed the headline, "Dewey Beats Truman." But they were wrong.

Truman beat Dewey and the race wasn't even that close (Truman won by 3.5 percentage points). What had gone wrong? The pollsters had stopped polling a week before the election. They thought that people's votes would not change before the election. But in 1948 there were two strong independent candidates whose support eroded away in the last week. By stopping their polling too soon, the pollsters missed this shift away from the third party candidates back to the major parties. Since most of the votes shifted to Truman, he won the election.

Related Links:

Program Segment 7

Interviews:
A. Gallup
G. Gallup
Moore

Book Reference:
Presidential Vote
 
I'm sure I could dig deeper and find polls that support my opinions but I'd rather work without a teleprompter
 
Further said:
Also, just because opinions are based on information other than scientific polls doesn't mean they are built on fallacy or whim. Your comparison of my prognostications to tarot cards or tea leaves assumes that the opinions are built on no valid information. Perhaps I can't substantiate them like I could if they were based on polling data or a census, but the opinions are based on putting together a complicated puzzle that includes people I have talked to, opinions of pundits, understanding of sociology and my grasp of the American pathos. The lines might not be as easy to draw as a Quinnipiac poll, but the lines do exist.

We shall see who is right. If Trump makes it all the way to general, then you shall be right. Otherwise, your over-religance on the polls will have failed you.
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I've made no predictions at all here. All I've said is no matter how crude he's been, his standing in the polls have improved.

I don't know if he's going to be the nominee. I do know the polls RIGHT NOW say he beats Sanders head to head, popular vote, and is far ahead of a deep republican slate of candidates.
 
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