Biggest draft busts :(

[SlyPokerDog]

 

[SlyPokerDog]

http://hoopism.com/?p=2186

The gray boxes have embedded videos. Click on link to see them.

 

[Minstrel]

Pretty cool-looking chart. Oden will be one of the greatest busts of all-time if he never puts together healthy seasons. It's far too early, at age 24, to conclude that he never will, IMO. Unlike everyone else on that chart, Oden's talent justified the selection...so their label of "Mr. Unlucky" seems appropriate.

 

[Big Frame]

Darko got him a ring. thats all I got to say.

 

[sov300]

wow cool chart, really enjoyed reading it

 

[Minstrel]

Darko got him a ring. thats all I got to say.

Adam Morrison won two rings. This chart is pretty stupid. You can't measure winning in stats. (Rings isn't a stat, right? Anyone?)

 

[BrianFromWA]

Michael Jordan and Bill Russell disagree.

 

[Minstrel]

Michael Jordan and Bill Russell disagree.

With what? The chart being stupid? Jordan, at least, would probably not disagree as he select Morrison.

 

[BrianFromWA]

And, by proxy, Kwame.

 

[Ed O]

Oden #1? Puh-lease.

If his career was over NOW, it'd still be a bit of a stretch. If we think of a bust in terms of unfulfilled potential and missed opportunity (in terms of other guys drafted) then he'd be heavy on the former and less so on the latter. Yes, Durant. But Durant is no Jordan, and probably won't end up at the level of Barkley and Stockton.

If we look at unfulfilled potential, then Bias is higher on the list, given he didn't play a single NBA game.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

Oden #1? Puh-lease.

If his career was over NOW, it'd still be a bit of a stretch. If we think of a bust in terms of unfulfilled potential and missed opportunity (in terms of other guys drafted) then he'd be heavy on the former and less so on the latter. Yes, Durant. But Durant is no Jordan, and probably won't end up at the level of Barkley and Stockton.
If we look at unfulfilled potential, then Bias is higher on the list, given he didn't play a single NBA game.

Ed O.

He's already at their level in terms of statistics and winning, and he's only 22 years-old.

Stockton wasn't even the Jazz' full-time starter his first three years in the league, and only started 47 out of the 246 games he played at ages 22, 23, and 24.

 

[THE HCP]

Greg is already 24?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk..... Cause I'm a balla'!

 

[e_blazer]

Greg is already 24?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk..... Cause I'm a balla'!

He's 23.

 

[Ed O]

He's already at their level in terms of statistics and winning, and he's only 22 years-old.

Bullshit.

He hasn't made an NBA finals and he has only played two seasons in the NBA. Stockton is the all-time assists leader. By quite a bit (the difference between him and Kidd at #2 is about the same as the difference between Kidd and #11 Lenny Wilkens).

Longevity matters a lot, and while Durant might go injury-free his entire career and play for the better part of two decades, or he might end up a Dominique-level player: very very good, but not great like Stockton and Barkley... or Jordan.

Ed O.

 

[Natebishop3]

No way Greg beats out Darko or Olowokandi at this point.

 

[julius]

Any list that doesn't have LaRue Martin #1, is a pointless, idiotic and moronic list.

 

[PapaG]

Bullshit.

He hasn't made an NBA finals and he has only played two seasons in the NBA. Stockton is the all-time assists leader. By quite a bit (the difference between him and Kidd at #2 is about the same as the difference between Kidd and #11 Lenny Wilkens).

Longevity matters a lot, and while Durant might go injury-free his entire career and play for the better part of two decades, or he might end up a Dominique-level player: very very good, but not great like Stockton and Barkley... or Jordan.

Ed O.

You posted that Durant "probably won't" end up at the level of a Barkley or Stockton. I just wonder why you think that, because at age 22, Durant has accomplished much more than Stockton or Barkley (or even Jordan) had achieved at a similar age.

Seems like you're just bagging on Durant to try and make the Oden pick seem less of a mistake (with the benefit of hindsight, or course).

Durant led Team USA to a world championship, has taken a 20-win team to a 54-win season and conference finals appearance as its franchise player, and he'll only be 23 next season. I find it silly to think that Durant "probably won't" end up being a top 25 player in NBA history, given the incredible start to his career, and his work ethic.

EDIT - because I missed the bolded portion. Durant has played 4 seasons, not 2. In terms of all-time scoring, Durant is in the Top 5 after his first four seasons for most points, and is a two-time scoring champ at ages 21 and 22.

Stockton was still playing at Gonzaga when he was 21.

 

[Ed O]

You posted that Durant "probably won't" end up at the level of a Barkley or Stockton. I just wonder why you think that, because at age 22, Durant has accomplished much more than Stockton or Barkley (or even Jordan) had achieved at a similar age.

Seems like you're just bagging on Durant to try and make the Oden pick seem less of a mistake (with the benefit of hindsight, or course).

Durant led Team USA to a world championship, has taken a 20-win team to a 54-win season and conference finals appearance as its franchise player, and he'll only be 23 next season. I find it silly to think that Durant "probably won't" end up being a top 25 player in NBA history, given the incredible start to his career, and his work ethic.

EDIT - because I missed the bolded portion. Durant has played 4 seasons, not 2. In terms of all-time scoring, Durant is in the Top 5 after his first four seasons for most points, and is a two-time scoring champ at ages 21 and 22.

Stockton was still playing at Gonzaga when he was 21.

I mistyped 2 instead of 4 for some reason.

The simple fact is that Barkley and Stockton and Jordan ended up being incredible, HoF-level all-time greats.

Durant is off to an awesome start to his career, but the odds are long that he'll end up as good as any one of those three--and the Blazers passed on ALL THREE of those guys to take Bowie.

There's no way that Oden should be #1 on that list, even if he never plays another minute in the NBA.

Ed O.

 

[Natebishop3]

You posted that Durant "probably won't" end up at the level of a Barkley or Stockton. I just wonder why you think that, because at age 22, Durant has accomplished much more than Stockton or Barkley (or even Jordan) had achieved at a similar age.

Seems like you're just bagging on Durant to try and make the Oden pick seem less of a mistake (with the benefit of hindsight, or course).

Durant led Team USA to a world championship, has taken a 20-win team to a 54-win season and conference finals appearance as its franchise player, and he'll only be 23 next season. I find it silly to think that Durant "probably won't" end up being a top 25 player in NBA history, given the incredible start to his career, and his work ethic.

EDIT - because I missed the bolded portion. Durant has played 4 seasons, not 2. In terms of all-time scoring, Durant is in the Top 5 after his first four seasons for most points, and is a two-time scoring champ at ages 21 and 22.

Stockton was still playing at Gonzaga when he was 21.

One major difference between Durant's career so far, and those of Stockton, Jordan, or Barkley is that Durant is in the current NBA with a different rule set and a significant advantage from the refs.

 

[PapaG]

I'll add that if Durant averages only 23 ppg next year (26 ppg if he misses 10 games), he'll beat LeBron James' record for youngest to reach 10k points.

Barring catastrophic injury, we may be looking at a top 5 all-time scorer who is already learning how to win.

 

[PapaG]

One major difference between Durant's career so far, and those of Stockton, Jordan, or Barkley is that Durant is in the current NBA with a different rule set and a significant advantage from the refs.

Well, I disagree in that Barkley played in a day where you could be very physical in the post. Besides, is it Durant's fault that he is 6'10" and can score from the perimeter by creating his own offense?

Durant is a freak, and I just laugh at people who try to pooh-pooh him in order to make Oden seems like a less-disastrous pick.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I'll add that if Durant averages only 23 ppg next year (26 ppg if he misses 10 games), he'll beat LeBron James' record for youngest to reach 10k points.

Barring catastrophic injury, we may be looking at a top 5 all-time scorer who is already learning how to win.

He will absolutely score, but won't win titles. Just ask KP.

 

[PapaG]

I mistyped 2 instead of 4 for some reason.

The simple fact is that Barkley and Stockton and Jordan ended up being incredible, HoF-level all-time greats.

Durant is off to an awesome start to his career, but the odds are long that he'll end up as good as any one of those three--and the Blazers passed on ALL THREE of those guys to take Bowie.

There's no way that Oden should be #1 on that list, even if he never plays another minute in the NBA.

Ed O.

I disagree about that. In terms of all-time greats, Stockton is actually an outlier, in that he wasn't a great NBA player his first three years. LeBron, Jordan, Durant, Bryant after his first year, Barkley, etc., were all elite players very early in their careers. I'll add Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade to the list as well. Paul might be the one who just ends up "very good", due to his injury troubles. The odds are longer for CP3 than Durant, IMO.

 

[Ed O]

I disagree about that. In terms of all-time greats, Stockton is actually an outlier, in that he wasn't a great NBA player his first three years. LeBron, Jordan, Durant, Bryant after his first year, Barkley, etc., were all elite players very early in their careers. I'll add Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade to the list as well. Paul might be the one who just ends up "very good", due to his injury troubles. The odds are longer for CP3 than Durant, IMO.

I'm not saying that elite careers don't tend to get off to elite starts. (You're right about that, and that Stockton is an aberration.)

I'm saying that elite starts don't always result in elite careers.

Ed O.

 

[PapaG]

He will absolutely score, but won't win titles. Just ask KP.

Yeah, that was a dumb statement from a young GM who was overly excited about getting the #1 pick. He'd probably still have a job had he picked Durant, and Presti and Cho would have been fired from the Sonics/Thunder a few years ago.

 

[PapaG]

I'm not saying that elite careers don't tend to get off to elite starts. (You're right about that, and that Stockton is an aberration.)

I'm saying that elite starts don't always result in elite careers.

Ed O.

Ah, got it. I think you're undervaluing how important it is to get off to a great start in a career. At the top of the youngest to 10k list, all are considered great players.

James, Bryant, Wilt, Kareem

The odds seem to be in Durant's favor, IMO. If he isn't considered an all-time great, it will be an outlier.

 

[julius]

AHEM...

Any list without LaRue Martin as the #1 spot is pure bullshit.


AHEM..

let's argue about that instead of re-arguing over Durant.

 

[PapaG]

AHEM...

Any list without LaRue Martin as the #1 spot is pure bullshit.


AHEM..

let's argue about that instead of re-arguing over Durant.

It's hard for me to be upset about a pick from 1972, especially considering it was a crapshoot whether the player would end up in the NBA or the ABA. That entire draft, outside of Bob McAdoo, was fairly terrible.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1972_NBA_Draft

 

[Minstrel]

Ah, got it. I think you're undervaluing how important it is to get off to a great start in a career. At the top of the youngest to 10k list, all are considered great players.

James, Bryant, Wilt, Kareem

The odds seem to be in Durant's favor, IMO. If he isn't considered an all-time great, it will be an outlier.

I think almost no player has so much talent that he's a "good bet" (i.e. higher than 50% chance) to be an inner-circle Hall of Famer. Durant's elite start certainly makes him one of the best current bets, but he's still probably at a lower 50% chance to end up with a total career as great as Stockton's.

And he's definitely no Jordan. He may have more career totals than Jordan at the same age, since he entered the NBA earlier, but he hasn't yet come even close to young Jordan's dominance. His total PER, for example, is lower than Jordan's from ages 21 to 22 and Jordan was about to embark on almost unprecedented numbers starting in his age 23 season. Durant's PER actually declined significantly this past seaon, from about 26 to 23. Nothing suggests that Durant is about to rip off a completely historic tear of seasons. It's possible, but definitely very, very unlikely.

That said, it's hardly pooh-poohing Durant to say he's not nearly as good as probably the greatest basketball player ever. I think Durant is a fantastic player.

 

[Ed O]

Ah, got it. I think you're undervaluing how important it is to get off to a great start in a career. At the top of the youngest to 10k list, all are considered great players.

James, Bryant, Wilt, Kareem

The odds seem to be in Durant's favor, IMO. If he isn't considered an all-time great, it will be an outlier.

I disagree. Players have only been coming out of college after their freshman year for 20 years or so.

I think that the number of games played is important when considering statistics--moreso than age.

Durant (as I said) is off to a fantastic start. He's been a great scorer. I don't think that it's likely he'll keep it up, and even if he did there's no Barkley and Stockton to go with his Jordan to justify Oden being a bigger bust than Bowie if we take into consideration opportunity cost (as the original content seemed to do in this thread).

Ed O.