I'll piggyback onto this with the numbers:
Damian Lillard $29,802,321
CJ McCollum $27,556,959
Evan Turner $18,606,557
Jusuf Nurkic $12,000,000
Maurice Harkless $11,511,234
Meyers Leonard $11,286,515
Zach Collins $4,240,200
Anfernee Simons $2,149,560
Caleb Swanigan $2,033,160
Gary Trent $1,416,852
Andrew Nicholson $2,844,429
Anderson Varejao $1,913,345
Festus Ezeli $333,333
$125,694,465
so, about 125.7M for 10 players. The tax line has been projected to be around 132M, but there have also been some very recent reports that attendance and revenue are down. So probably, at the most, the Blazers would start out only 6M below the tax line, and perhaps only 4-5M. But 10 players is 2 below the minimum, so, at the minimum, Portland would be assessed 2 roster charges of about 900K each. So that could drop Portland no-tax margin to somewhere in the 2-5M range. Now, if Portland uses their first round pick and it's somewhere in the 22-26 range, the 1st year salary would be around 2M. That eliminates one roster charge, but that still drops the no-tax margin into the 1-4M range, and they'd still have to add 3 players. Even with 3 minimum contracts, Portland would very likely be over the tax line
and that doesn't count Aminu, Layman, Curry, Stauskas, or Baldwin. All this with ownership likely in limbo
go back to the scenario where Portland uses their first round pick and they then re-sign Layman for...say 5M 1st year salary. They'd almost certainly be over the tax line. Worse, they'd be in the apron....with 2 more players needed
I really have a hard time imagining the Vulcans authorizing any tax next season, much less a significant amount of tax, especially if Portland fails in the playoffs again. So, what if both Aminu and Layman get offers topping 7M in 1st year salary? What if Curry gets offered 5M?
my hunch is that Portland is actively looking at ways to reduce salary next season, much like they were when they shopped Plumlee 2 years ago and Vonleh last year. Looking at that projected payroll for Portland, the tax implications, and the ownership situation, I think it's pretty imperative the Blazers increase that no-tax margin as much as they can. And if it requires the 1st round pick this year, so be it, just add it to the sunk cost of that 2016 idiocy