technically, sure, but I think it's a distortion for a couple of reasons. If you look at player options for all the players above 15M in current salary, there are 3 or 4 players who will opt out to full free agency (Durant-Kawhi-Butler) a couple, maybe, like Kyrie who will re-sign, and then 12 who won't opt out. I mean, is Horford going to opt out of 30M? Crabbe opt out or 19M? Biyombo opt out of 17M
it does get interesting in the 10-15M range; there are a few players like Tobias Harris, Vucevic, & Danny Green, Mirotic & Bogdanovich who will generate a lot of interest. But you're also seeing a lot more players like Robin Lopez, Jeremy Lin, Tyreke Evans, Tyson Chandler, Zach Rodolph, & Jared Dudley who are headed for small portions of cap-space, the MLE's, or vet minimums
same thing happens in the range between vet minimum and 10M
and the way you get to that 47/53 is by counting the 70-80 players who have vet minimum contracts as impending free agents. Sure, technically, they will be, but they are also headed right back toward the same contracts or out of the league. Is Stauskas going to get anything other than a minimum deal? Channing Frye? And for the impending free agents that had above the minimum, are they going to get above again or drop into the minimum category? Players like
Darrell Arthur Boban Marjanovic Wesley Johnson Anthony Tolliver Jason Smith Alexis Ajinca Thabo Sefolosha those guys are headed for minimum deals or for China.
there are also lots of impending free agents who will simply re-sign with their teams, many of which wouldn't have cap-space anyway
this is probably splitting hairs. There will be a lot of free agents, you're correct about that, maybe more than normal. But if Layman continues on the pace he has been, will he & Aminu generate less interest then players like Taj Gibson, Patrick Beverly, or Garret Temple?