Blazers getting serious for David Lee

[ehizzy3]

I'm against trading Bayless because I still think the kid is going to be really good. I'm scared of trading Sergio because of what ramifications it might have with Rudy. Kind of a catch 22. Plus, I'm with eveyone else on Lee. Seems like a risky move. I'd much rather look at a small forward or a point guard.

this is a business. if rudy cant handle sergio being traded, then we need to trade rudy aswell.

 

[ehizzy3]

As long as Lee is getting decent minutes and likes Portland (the team and city) I don't know how you can rule out him not re-signing. I'm not too sure about the CBA rules, but won't the Blazers have his bird rights anyway?

If the Blazers want a proven double-double player then their best is probably to trade for Lee. I like Bayless, but I don't think he is an ideal fit for Roy, anyway. He was also a projected top 5 pick based on his talent and ability. The fact that he isn't seeing any playing time is alarming, so maybe his ceiling isn't as high as KP thought.

It depends on who you look at it. It might be rough for Portland if Denver gets Lee for Atkins though.

bayless is the perfect fit for roy. and why do we need a proven double-double player? we were 2 in the league in rebounding last time i checked.

 

[Minstrel]

Here's a thought: why is LMA actually better than Lee?

They have similar PERs, but Aldridge is two years younger with a significantly higher upside. In addition, Aldridge is a defensive asset while Lee is not.

So defense makes Aldridge the superior player today, and Aldridge's production at a younger age also gives Aldridge the superior upside.

 

[DaRizzle]

He's also on Portland

 

[Denny Crane]

They have similar PERs, but Aldridge is two years younger with a significantly higher upside. In addition, Aldridge is a defensive asset while Lee is not.

So defense makes Aldridge the superior player today, and Aldridge's production at a younger age also gives Aldridge the superior upside.

Lee's defensive PER last season was as good as Aldridge's this season, plus he's a significantly better rebounder and a more efficient scorer. That's at PF. Why do I use last season? Well, D'Antoni's teams aren't known for playing D, and last season Lee did play D and PF mostly.

What kind of upside? Will Aldridge become a double-double guy? Maybe put up 2 PPG more than Lee (I think).

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

It'll be Sergio. The Knicks like Rodriguez.

Prediction: Sergio will blow up in NY with the SSOL offense.

I mean, look at what it's done for a scub like Chris Fricking Duhon.

 

[Minstrel]

plus he's a significantly better rebounder and a more efficient scorer.

Those are accounted for in PER, they aren't counters to what I said.

Lee's defensive PER last season was as good as Aldridge's this season,
...
Why do I use last season? Well, D'Antoni's teams aren't known for playing D

D'Antoni's teams are known for pushing the pace, which leads to giving up a lot of points. He doesn't tell his players not to defend in the half-court. I don't think this is a very good argument.

From observation (mine and others), Lee is a pretty sub-par defender. Aldridge has more defensive range (he can defend out to the perimeter as well as inside) and is a very good team defender, something that Lee isn't known for, at all.

What kind of upside?

Improve his production and defense, as players tend to improve up to around age 27. The further from 27 (on the younger side, not the older side), the steeper the improvement. Who knows where, specifically, he will improve? The likelihood, however, is that Aldridge has more improvement left before his prime then Lee does.

 

[Denny Crane]

Those are accounted for in PER, they aren't counters to what I said.



D'Antoni's teams are known for pushing the pace, which leads to giving up a lot of points. He doesn't tell his players not to defend in the half-court. I don't think this is a very good argument.

From observation (mine and others), Lee is a pretty sub-par defender. Aldridge has more defensive range (he can defend out to the perimeter as well as inside) and is a very good team defender, something that Lee isn't known for, at all.



Improve his production and defense, as players tend to improve up to around age 27. The further from 27 (on the younger side, not the older side), the steeper the improvement. Who knows where, specifically, he will improve? The likelihood, however, is that Aldridge has more improvement left before his prime then Lee does.

You said defense is the difference between the two. I'll say that Aldridge rebounds like a SF, and scores 2 PPG more on 5 FGA per game more, and gets to the FT line less frequently, and doesn't get assists as frequently either.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

You said defense is the difference between the two. I'll say that Aldridge rebounds like a SF, and scores 2 PPG more on 5 FGA per game more, and gets to the FT line less frequently, and doesn't get assists as frequently either.

David Lee >>>>>>>> Tyrus Thomas

 

[illmatic99]

add us taking back some dead salary like jared jeffries and/or matt carrol, and i think it meets all three teams needs.

So, something like this: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/featur...&teams=30~22~30~18~30~18~22~22&te=&cash=30:22

 

[Minstrel]

You said defense is the difference between the two.

I said defense is what makes Aldridge better right now. Lots of things differentiate them, but all of those things largely equal out, as evidenced by nearly identical PERs. PER doesn't really measure defense, though, and that's an area where Aldridge is a benefit and Lee isn't, really.

 

[Denny Crane]

David Lee >>>>>>>> Tyrus Thomas

No argument from me. There's likely 200 or more players better

 

[number 10]

So, something like this: http://games.espn.go.com/nba/featur...&teams=30~22~30~18~30~18~22~22&te=&cash=30:22

any time your team comes out of a trade with the two best players it's probably not a fair trade.

 

[MIXUM]

could lee play sf?


oden, la, lee wouldnt miss a rebound ever lol


anythings better then batum

 

[KingSpeed]

Lee just got his 22nd double double of the season. That's 3rd best in the entire NBA. Is he better than LMA?

 

[alex42083]

Lee just got his 22nd double double of the season. That's 3rd best in the entire NBA. Is he better than LMA?

Part of that is a byproduct of D'Antoni's system, but part of that is he's really good. I don't really think he'd accept a backup role here.

 

[Mr. J]

Portland can re-sign him, in terms of the CBA rules. I simply don't think Lee has any chance at all of accepting a backup role when he'll have offers on the free market to start for another team.

Like I said, if Lee is getting decent minutes, then I don’t think he will be complaining. He hasn’t complained at all in his 4 years about not starting. Whether starting or coming off the bench, Lee’s minutes should still be about the same, so I don’t see the problem. If worse comes to worse and he wants out of Portland, they can arrange a sign-and-trade.

With Oden and Aldridge locked in as the team's long-term starters at center and power forward, with Przybilla as a high quality big man reserve, I don't think a "proven double-double" power forward is a priority for Portland.

Well, the Blazers are still ranked 19th in the league in rebounding. Aldridge is a poor rebounder, and Przybilla is turning 30 this year, and is only declining from this point. So, I doubt the Blazers rebounding isn’t exactly going to improve by itself. I would say the prospect of having one of the best rebounders in the league, while maybe not a priority, is attractive.

I completely disagree. I think his skillset is a perfect fit alongside Roy. Roy is a player who likes to handle the ball and run the offense. The ideal backcourt mate for him is someone who projects as a good defender of point guards, can shoot well from the perimeter and can drive-and-dish. That describes Bayless perfectly. A "true" point guard isn't really what Portland needs alongside Roy, since he has point guard skills himself.

Like you said, Roy is a player that likes to handle the ball but so is Bayless. So, already there is a potential chemistry issue. At Arizona he was extremely ball-dominant. In fact, at this stage of his career, Bayless is an undersized shooting guard based on his play. Essentially, the Blazers would have a backcourt of two shooting guards with Roy and Bayless. Not saying a scoring point guard can’t help, but a true point guard would be ideal for Portland. Instead of worrying about getting the team involved, Roy can focus more attention to scoring.

Perhaps, but unlikely to me. Bayless lit up the summer league (which isn't proof of anything, but what you'd expect to see from a player with high ability level) and apparently plays extremely well in practice and scrimmages with the starters. There's little evidence to me that his minutes are limited because he's a poor player, but rather that he's currently the victim of a numbers crunch.

I think if Bayless was truly playing extremely well in practice and scrimmages then no doubt he would be seeing some form of daylight. I know he has been getting only a few minutes, but he has not looked too good in the minutes which he receives. Take his last 2 games, for example. He played 15 and 16 minutes, which is around what Sergio averages. In those games he managed to hoist up 6 and 4 shots respectively, only hitting 1 FG in both games combined. He also had 4 turnovers in the game which he played 16 minutes. Again, it’s limited play, but quite unimpressive nonetheless.

Indeed. If New York gives Lee to Denver for nothing (Chucky Atkins), that would be bad for Portland. Of course, you don't make a bad deal just to prevent another team from making a deal. Especially when this season isn't all that important in the grand scheme of things.

Oops, I forgot to add in the two first round picks (one from the Bobcats, I don’t know whether it’s protected) and possibly Linas Kleiza. Me mentioning that Denver was interested was more of a FYI-type of thing. I wouldn’t expect the Blazers to make a trade based on what the Nuggets were doing.

 

[Mr. J]

I disagree with the notion that Lee's stats have been inflated by D'Antoni's system. Since his sophomore year he has been amongst the NBA's best rebounders and always top in double-doubles.

 

[number 10]

Blazers are 11th in team defensive rebounding
and the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA
and all in all 2nd overall only to the Celtics

Given that the Blazers are one of the slowest teams in the NBA, looking at raw stats is fairly pointless.

Przybilla and Oden are both better rebounders than Lee

No argument that Aldridge isn't a great rebounder, and Lee definitely is an excellent defensive rebounder. I don't see where he's going to get the minutes though, the Blazers already have 3 good bigs, we just need Oden to avoid fouls a bit more.

 

[craigehlo]

Part of that is a byproduct of D'Antoni's system, but part of that is he's really good. I don't really think he'd accept a backup role here.

I think he's accept most any role that paid him a ton of cash. Seeing as how we are paying the combo of Ike and Frye $6 million this season, it seems reasonable to offer him 8 mil per year to be the primary backup off the bench at the PF and C.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm late to the game on this one, but how is Donnie Walsh not interested in Bayless or Sergio and a 1st (disregarding whether or not we'd give them up) when he's about 50 games from not having anything for him? Donnie's not signing him to anything past 2010, at ANY price, right? Isn't that what we keep hearing?

As for giving him our 1st, we can give him $3M to buy his own damn 1st, fair and square, like we do.

 

[Mr. J]

Blazers are 11th in team defensive rebounding
and the best offensive rebounding team in the NBA
and all in all 2nd overall only to the Celtics

Given that the Blazers are one of the slowest teams in the NBA, looking at raw stats is fairly pointless.

Przybilla and Oden are both better rebounders than Lee

No argument that Aldridge isn't a great rebounder, and Lee definitely is an excellent defensive rebounder. I don't see where he's going to get the minutes though, the Blazers already have 3 good bigs, we just need Oden to avoid fouls a bit more.

I definitely overlooked the rate at which the Blazers outrebound their opponents. Good find.

However, I disagree with the rebounding rate statistics you used to support this. There are more factors to being a better rebounder than simply having a high rebounding rate. It's especially difficult for players who don't play significant minutes. Joel Przybilla is not a better rebounder than Dwight Howard, though the stats might suggest differently. Anthony Randolph is not a better rebounder than Shaq, Duncan, Lee, Milsape, etc. Let's also factor in that players who play 30+ MPG play longer and have to deal with issues such as fatigue.

I also think there are certain intangibles to rebounding such as back taps, which make players like David Lee better rebounders than statistics can ever prove.

 

[Minstrel]

Like I said, if Lee is getting decent minutes, then I don’t think he will be complaining. He hasn’t complained at all in his 4 years about not starting. Whether starting or coming off the bench, Lee’s minutes should still be about the same, so I don’t see the problem. If worse comes to worse and he wants out of Portland, they can arrange a sign-and-trade.

Starting is generally a big deal to players. Lee hasn't complained, but he had no choice. He was locked intoa rookie contract. He'll have the ability to make a choice this or next off-season (I forget if he's RFA or UFA), and I doubt he'd choose to be a backup, even if the minutes were okay. A sign-and-trade is possible, but definitely not assured. It's a big risk, and I'd be inclined to see it as a rental.

Well, the Blazers are still ranked 19th in the league in rebounding. Aldridge is a poor rebounder, and Przybilla is turning 30 this year, and is only declining from this point.

Przybilla is actually having one of his best seasons, not declining. Oden has been one of the best rebounders in the league this year, and his improvement (and increase in minutes) should cancel out any decline (in ability and minutes) of Przybilla.

And Portland is actually ranked #2 in Rebound Rate, which is Hollinger's rebounding statistic. iIt accounts for pace and opportunities (a team that shoots well or allows opponents to shoot well will have fewer rebound opportunities). Portland is 30th in pace, is a very efficient offensive team and a fairly poor defensive team. So, total rebounds isn't going to rank them correctly...there are just fewer total rebounds in Portland games.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...ger/teamstats?sort=rr&seasonType=2&league=nba

Therefore, I don't feel a rebounder is high on Portland's priority list.

Like you said, Roy is a player that likes to handle the ball but so is Bayless. So, already there is a potential chemistry issue. At Arizona he was extremely ball-dominant. In fact, at this stage of his career, Bayless is an undersized shooting guard based on his play. Essentially, the Blazers would have a backcourt of two shooting guards with Roy and Bayless.

Portland has two combo guards. Bayless is scoring oriented, yes, but he was recruited heavily as a point guard and was slated to play point guard at Arizona...he ended up playing shooting guard due to injury to the team's planned shooting guard. Roy has point guard skills and tends to direct the offense. A true point guard would lower Roy's value and thus not be optimal. A scoring guard who can distribute a bit, especially off penetration, and (most importantly) defend point guards is the ideal complement to Roy. That's Bayless.

I think if Bayless was truly playing extremely well in practice and scrimmages then no doubt he would be seeing some form of daylight. I know he has been getting only a few minutes, but he has not looked too good in the minutes which he receives. Take his last 2 games, for example. He played 15 and 16 minutes, which is around what Sergio averages. In those games he managed to hoist up 6 and 4 shots respectively, only hitting 1 FG in both games combined. He also had 4 turnovers in the game which he played 16 minutes. Again, it’s limited play, but quite unimpressive nonetheless.

We'll have to agree to disagree on whether Bayless has been disappointing. A 19 year old rookie needs more minutes to adapt to NBA speed. His sporadic minutes haven't afforded him that opportunity. His defense has looked good, and he's shown that he has the ability to drive and dish. His main problem has been missing open shots that he hit at Arizona and turnovers. Neither is terribly concerning considering his lack of time in NBA games.

I don't think good play in practice would necessarily get him more minutes. Nate McMillan is extremely conservative and puts the focus more on winning the game than on developing young players. Blake is clearly the safer point guard right now and Rodriguez is more veteran than Bayless and has more developed passing skills. Neither is a world-beater, obviously, but they represent risk-averse choices for McMillan.

Essentially, I don't think anything has yet proven or disproven the talent that Bayless was believed to have on draft day. Until Bayless gets consistent minutes, I don't think he can be evaluated as an NBA player. As things stand, I think Bayless has a higher risk/reward component than Lee. Since winning a championship takes big-time talent, I'm more inclined to prefer the higher risk/reward proposition at a position of need over a safe non-star player at a position that isn't a need.

 

[Minstrel]

It's especially difficult for players who don't play significant minutes.

This isn't a valid point since we're talking about teams.

 

[Mr. J]

I'm late to the game on this one, but how is Donnie Walsh not interested in Bayless or Sergio and a 1st (disregarding whether or not we'd give them up) when he's about 50 games from not having anything for him? Donnie's not signing him to anything past 2010, at ANY price, right? Isn't that what we keep hearing?

As for giving him our 1st, we can give him $3M to buy his own damn 1st, fair and square, like we do.

The plan is to have room to sign a few lucrative deals in 2010. The Knicks can re-sign Nate and Lee to decent deals and still have decent cap space for 2010 - it just won't be enough for two max deals.

Donnie would definitely be interested in Bayless/Segio and a first rounder for Lee. Who said he wouldn't be?

 

[Mr. J]

This isn't a valid point since we're talking about teams.

I was referring to Oden/Przybilla being better rebounders than Lee.

 

[BrianFromWA]

The plan is to have room to sign a few lucrative deals in 2010. The Knicks can re-sign Nate and Lee to decent deals and still have decent cap space for 2010 - it just won't be enough for two max deals.

Donnie would definitely be interested in Bayless/Segio and a first rounder for Lee. Who said he wouldn't be?

The original link.

The Knicks may be interested in Jerryd Bayless, who has fallen behind Sergio Rodriguez on their depth chart, and whom the team passed on in this year’s draft or Rodriguez, but the combination of either and a first round pick won’t be enough to entice Walsh

 

[number 10]

I definitely overlooked the rate at which the Blazers outrebound their opponents. Good find.

However, I disagree with the rebounding rate statistics you used to support this. There are more factors to being a better rebounder than simply having a high rebounding rate. It's especially difficult for players who don't play significant minutes. Joel Przybilla is not a better rebounder than Dwight Howard, though the stats might suggest differently. Anthony Randolph is not a better rebounder than Shaq, Duncan, Lee, Milsape, etc. Let's also factor in that players who play 30+ MPG play longer and have to deal with issues such as fatigue.

I also think there are certain intangibles to rebounding such as back taps, which make players like David Lee better rebounders than statistics can ever prove.

Sorry, I should have said that Oden and Przybilla both have better rebounding rates than Lee. Who among them is the best rebounder doesn't really matter to me that much, all three of them are good. Frankly, I don't watch the Knicks enough and I doubt you watch the Blazers enough to tell.

In any case, I disagree with your contention that, because they're a poor rebounding team, the Blazers need Lee. And even if at the PF position the team is soft, there's better ways to improve on that than with a half season of Lee (because I still don't see it making sense for him or the Blazers to pay good money to get ~20 minutes a game). Bringing in Gerald Wallace, for example, would move Batum or Webster to backup 3, improving the 2nd unit's rebounding to compensate for Frye/Diogu/Outlaw at the 4.

to suggest it again, IMO this trade makes a lot of sense, give or take some picks/foreign assets. What do you think about it as a Knicks fan? I have to admit, just based on the PER stats shown, the Knicks are the big losers here.

 

[Mr. J]

Starting is generally a big deal to players. Lee hasn't complained, but he had no choice. He was locked intoa rookie contract. He'll have the ability to make a choice this or next off-season (I forget if he's RFA or UFA), and I doubt he'd choose to be a backup, even if the minutes were okay. A sign-and-trade is possible, but definitely not assured. It's a big risk, and I'd be inclined to see it as a rental.

There are several players on rookie contracts that have complained. I think Lee not complaining is more so a testament to his character. The only positive to starting is the respect factor. However, if Lee is offered the right type of deal, is playing decent minutes, and likes Portland (his good friend Frye is playing there – I don’t know how long he lasts though, lol) I doubt he complains about minutes.

Przybilla is actually having one of his best seasons, not declining. Oden has been one of the best rebounders in the league this year, and his improvement (and increase in minutes) should cancel out any decline (in ability and minutes) of Przybilla.

Be that as it may, I wouldn’t say he is a better rebounder than Lee, though he certainly has potential to be in the future.

And Portland is actually ranked #2 in Rebound Rate, which is Hollinger's rebounding statistic. iIt accounts for pace and opportunities (a team that shoots well or allows opponents to shoot well will have fewer rebound opportunities). Portland is 30th in pace, is a very efficient offensive team and a fairly poor defensive team. So, total rebounds isn't going to rank them correctly...there are just fewer total rebounds in Portland games.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/holl...ger/teamstats?sort=rr&seasonType=2&league=nba

Yeah, I overlooked their rebounding rate.

Portland has two combo guards. Bayless is scoring oriented, yes, but he was recruited heavily as a point guard and was slated to play point guard at Arizona...he ended up playing shooting guard due to injury to the team's planned shooting guard. Roy has point guard skills and tends to direct the offense. A true point guard would lower Roy's value and thus not be optimal. A scoring guard who can distribute a bit, especially off penetration, and (most importantly) defend point guards is the ideal complement to Roy. That's Bayless.

The fact that he was recruited as a point guard doesn’t make him anymore of one. Bayless is not a combo guard either - he is a tweener. And how would a true point guard lower Roy’s value? A true point guard will only make everyone better and will allow Roy to focus more on scoring. He will also be getting better looks. Roy can still use his PG skills as a fulltime SG. It will just make him more of a threat.

We'll have to agree to disagree on whether Bayless has been disappointing. A 19 year old rookie needs more minutes to adapt to NBA speed. His sporadic minutes haven't afforded him that opportunity. His defense has looked good, and he's shown that he has the ability to drive and dish. His main problem has been missing open shots that he hit at Arizona and turnovers. Neither is terribly concerning considering his lack of time in NBA games.

I don't think good play in practice would necessarily get him more minutes. Nate McMillan is extremely conservative and puts the focus more on winning the game than on developing young players. Blake is clearly the safer point guard right now and Rodriguez is more veteran than Bayless and has more developed passing skills. Neither is a world-beater, obviously, but they represent risk-averse choices for McMillan.

Essentially, I don't think anything has yet proven or disproven the talent that Bayless was believed to have on draft day. Until Bayless gets consistent minutes, I don't think he can be evaluated as an NBA player. As things stand, I think Bayless has a higher risk/reward component than Lee. Since winning a championship takes big-time talent, I'm more inclined to prefer the higher risk/reward proposition at a position of need over a safe non-star player at a position that isn't a need.

Yeah, we’ll have to agree to disagree. I think Bayless not playing simply lends credence to his readiness, or lack thereof. If he really had ability right now I think he would find a way to be playing in more games, regardless of how conservative Nate is. I guess only time will tell though.

 

[Mr. J]

Sorry, I should have said that Oden and Przybilla both have better rebounding rates than Lee. Who among them is the best rebounder doesn't really matter to me that much, all three of them are good. Frankly, I don't watch the Knicks enough and I doubt you watch the Blazers enough to tell.

In any case, I disagree with your contention that, because they're a poor rebounding team, the Blazers need Lee. And even if at the PF position the team is soft, there's better ways to improve on that than with a half season of Lee (because I still don't see it making sense for him or the Blazers to pay good money to get ~20 minutes a game). Bringing in Gerald Wallace, for example, would move Batum or Webster to backup 3, improving the 2nd unit's rebounding to compensate for Frye/Diogu/Outlaw at the 4.

to suggest it again, IMO this trade makes a lot of sense, give or take some picks/foreign assets. What do you think about it as a Knicks fan? I have to admit, just based on the PER stats shown, the Knicks are the big losers here.

I think if you add the right assets - picks, cash, etc. - the trade is decent. I'm not the biggest Outlaw fan though and I think he will take minutes away from Chandler at the 3, but the Knicks save a lot of cash in this deal, so it can work.