Blazers Kill Vegas Odds! How we did it.

[Wizard Mentor]

Very Good article on Blazersedge (and I don't often say that)

That's right - in the final 10 games pre-break, the Blazers are the third-best defensive team in the league. Obviously it's a small sample, but every little 10-game interval counts when you've got a young team that's still figuring itself out. It shouldn't be surprising that this new collection of talent has improved considerably from its 44th game together to its 54th.

http://www.blazersedge.com/2016/2/12/10976926/portland-trail-blazers-vegas-odds-2016-nba-playoffs
Yes, it really sucks to be a Rockets fan right now. Vegas predicted 56 wins, they're below .500 right now.

 

[theprunetang]

I agree that it was a rare blazers edge piece that was actually good. I actually tried to start a thread last night, but my phone wasn't cooperating.

The part that stuck out to me was the defensive numbers. Over the last 10 games we have the 3rd best defense in the league! 10 games is a small sample size, but that shows our defensive potential with this group. It is also satisfying to see the numbers backup the eye test. Cheers.

 

[BBert]

It's makes me laugh to see "27.5" next to the Blazers. I knew we would beat that for certain when that number first came out and wished I could put some money down. Now add to it that the Blazers are exceeding my original expectations and this season is so far a resounding success.

And the Blazers defense has been a thing of beauty lately.

Suck it Vegas!

 

[HailBlazers]

Doh! Second year in a row I knew I shoulda placed a wager and didn't.

Great Article BTW.

 

[Nikolokolus]

They're playing a lot better on D, but with the number of home games and the generally poor quality of opponent they've played in that stretch, I wouldn't read too much into it.

If they keep it up over the next two months, then color me impressed.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

It's makes me laugh to see "27.5" next to the Blazers. I new we would beat that for certain when that number first came out and wished I could put some money down. Now add to it that the Blazers are exceeding my original expectations and this season is so far a resounding success.

And the Blazers defense has been a thing of beauty lately.

Suck it Vegas!

I knew we'd beat 27.5 wins too, that's why I predicted we'd win 28 games!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

It would have been a better investment for me to take out my entire 401k and make one bet on the over.

 

[oldfisherman]

How? HCP told Dame he could not do it. Reverse psychology.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I was surprised by the Vegas line. Usually they are smarter than most of us. I picked the Blazers to win between 32-36 based on winning at least half their home games and about 10-11 road wins. That was based purely on the fact that there are a lot of average at best teams in the league, not because I thought the Blazers would be any good.

Maybe they were banking on Dame getting hurt.

 

[KingSpeed]

They're playing a lot better on D, but with the number of home games and the generally poor quality of opponent they've played in that stretch, I wouldn't read to much into it.

If they keep it up over the next two months, then color me impressed.

But we're 6-2 on the road since Christmas including wins at Memphis and Houston.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

But we're 6-2 on the road since Christmas including wins at Memphis and Houston.

Memphis was without gasol. Houston sucks now.

It's not unreasonable to want to see them continue to play well.

What is unreasonable, is saying this team is better than last year's team

 

[WillG]

Win/Win - Team is better than most expected, and some cash to be made from 'Experts' who tabbed us to be amongst the three worst teams in the league.
I put a hefty sum where my mouth was.

Looking forward to cleaning up . . .

 

[Nikolokolus]

I was surprised by the Vegas line. Usually they are smarter than most of us. I picked the Blazers to win between 32-36 based on winning at least half their home games and about 10-11 road wins. That was based purely on the fact that there are a lot of average at best teams in the league, not because I thought the Blazers would be any good.

Maybe they were banking on Dame getting hurt.

But Vegas isn't in the business of predicting wins. They're in the business of setting half the action on one side and the other half on the other side. Of course we have no idea how many of their bettors actually took the over (26.5 if I recall?) but I'll bet it wasn't high. The Blazers aren't exactly a public team, and there were a shitload of question marks coming in with so many starters gone.

I give Stotts and Damian a lot of credit. I really thought this team would struggle to create offense with the front court players we had coming in and I really didn't think Lillard would thrive as much as he has with opponents gunning for him every night. It helps that CJ turned into a 20 ppg scorer to take some of the pressure off and the team's enjoyed above average good health so far.

 

[Pinwheel1]

But Vegas isn't in the business of predicting wins. They're in the business of setting half the action on one side and the other half on the other side. Of course we have no idea how many of their bettors actually took the over (26.5 if I recall?) but I'll bet it wasn't high. The Blazers aren't exactly a public team, and there were a shitload of question marks coming in with so many starters gone.

Nik that's like saying they are not in the business of providing point spreads. If they are not in the business of either , then no one is. No one is consistently more accurate at setting odds then Vegas. And that is why I was surprised when they came in so low. The one thing they can't account for is injuries, but other than that they pay a lot of money to their "employees" to come up with the best line possible. Granted they make money either way, but it is still their business.

 

[PDXFonz]

They're playing a lot better on D, but with the number of home games and the generally poor quality of opponent they've played in that stretch, I wouldn't read too much into it.

If they keep it up over the next two months, then color me impressed.

Should I color you surprised too?

 

[Nikolokolus]

Nik that's like saying they are not in the business of providing point spreads. If they are not in the business of either , then no one is. No one is consistently more accurate at setting odds then Vegas. And that is why I was surprised when they came in so low. The one thing they can't account for is injuries, but other than that they pay a lot of money to their "employees" to come up with the best line possible. Granted they make money either way, but it is still their business.

The closer they get to hitting the mark the better, but ultimately it is all about finding that 50/50 mark between bets. If it's a public team like the Lakers, then they know that a lot of the public will bet on the over because the Lakers have a "name" so there's incentive to move the line a little bit higher As an aside, I'm not sure why you put wrapped the word "employees" in quotation marks?