Zach Collins and his return to the Blazers: ‘I’m definitely not rushing back’

[KSF-ERIC]

He didn't do much for us before he got injured.

We were 8-3 including big wins against good teams when he played last season. Without him, we were 28-40.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

That just means those organizations are typically horrible at drafting as well. Dallas lucked into Luka.

Dallas didn’t luck out. They identified him as a great player and traded 2 picks to get him.

 

[James lamphear]

That's fine for a dude you draft in the late first round, but not for a top 10 pick. We could have had Donovan Mitchell, Bam Adebayo or John Collins.

Say we draft those players Mitchell would be behind Dame and CJ and Bam would be behind Nurk and collins would been behind aminu. So you think they would have the career that they have being draft by us. Bam might had the best chance due to Nurk injuries. They went to teams that was perfect situation for them.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Dallas didn’t luck out. They identified him as a great player and traded 2 picks to get him.

They lucked out that two teams were too stupid to draft him and Atlanta was sucker enough to trade him. Same way we lucked out with Roy and Aldridge, and Seattle lucked out with Durant.

 

[bigbailes]

Dallas didn’t luck out. They identified him as a great player and traded 2 picks to get him.

The luck was the Suns AND ESPECIALLY Kings and Hawks being horrible talent evaluators!

 

[wizenheimer]

We were 8-3 including big wins against good teams when he played last season. Without him, we were 28-40.

oh gawd...that loopy narrative again...false correlation

Zach has magic powers apparently because that season, he ranked 12th on the team in PER; 11th in TS%; 18th in FT rate; 8th in rebound rate; 11th in offensive rating; 13th in defensive rating; 11th in winshares/48; 10th in offensive BPM; 15th in defensive BPM; and 11th in BPM

if Zach truly had one thing to do with that 8-3 record you spin out every time he's mentioned, he'd be top-5 in at least 3 or 4 of those stats instead of barely registering in the top-10.

that said, I'd be ok with Zach being re-signed to a short term deal at 3-5M/year. He hasn't earned more than that and even 5M may be too much. But with Olshey in place, I'm worried he'll once again bid against himself and do like he did with Meyers

 

[wizenheimer]

Say we draft those players Mitchell would be behind Dame and CJ and Bam would be behind Nurk and collins would been behind aminu. .

that's a terrible argument. Basically, you're saying it a good thing Portland didn't draft all-star level talent like Mitchell or Bam because the Blazers would have grossly mismanaged the roster & rotation. So sure, it's much better Portland has a guy who hasn't played for 2 years than a 2nd all-star

 

[James lamphear]

oh gawd...that loopy narrative again...false correlation

Zach has magic powers apparently because that season, he ranked 12th on the team in PER; 11th in TS%; 18th in FT rate; 8th in rebound rate; 11th in offensive rating; 13th in defensive rating; 11th in winshares/48; 10th in offensive BPM; 15th in defensive BPM; and 11th in BPM

if Zach truly had one thing to do with that 8-3 record you spin out every time he's mentioned, he'd be top-5 in at least 3 or 4 of those stats instead of barely registering in the top-10.

that said, I'd be ok with Zach being re-signed to a short term deal at 3-5M/year. He hasn't earned more than that and even 5M may be too much. But with Olshey in place, I'm worried he'll once again bid against himself and do like he did with Meyers

You think stats is the worth of what a player does to help a team to win. There a lot thing a player can do that don't show up in the stats that's help a team to win games. Do you he was +3.3 for +- last year and plus he only had 11 games might be why his stats was low. Two years before that he came off the bench do you know he had 106 defense rating his rookie year and 108 his second year. You put to much into stats and have broke down his games probably not but guess I have. For how much he should get that's up to Zach agent and Olshey. If you think we couldn't use a healthy Zach this year I question how much basketball you know.

 

[James lamphear]

that's a terrible argument. Basically, you're saying it a good thing Portland didn't draft all-star level talent like Mitchell or Bam because the Blazers would have grossly mismanaged the roster & rotation. So sure, it's much better Portland has a guy who hasn't played for 2 years than a 2nd all-star

I already made that argument about those players I won't go into again.

 

[wizenheimer]

You think stats is the worth of what a player does to help a team to win. There a lot thing a player can do that don't show up in the stats that's help a team to win games. Do you he was +3.3 for +- last year and plus he only had 11 games might be why his stats was low. Two years before that he came off the bench do you know he had 106 defense rating his rookie year and 108 his second year. You put to much into stats and have broke down his games probably not but guess I have. For how much he should get that's up to Zach agent and Olshey. If you think we couldn't use a healthy Zach this year I question how much basketball you know.

lol...I know you're the biggest Zach fan in this forum and will always fly to his defense

you're making several vague, gut-feeling arguments, but I want you, or Eric, to make an specific argument, and bring receipts, for exactly what Zach did last season to be given any credit for that 8-3 record other than just being there

by the way, as long as you're busy dismissing the value of stats & numbers while questioning my BB knowledge, Zach had 0.3 winshares last season. That's 1/27th of those 8 wins

 

[James lamphear]

lol...I know you're the biggest Zach fan in this forum and will always fly to his defense

you're making several vague, gut-feeling arguments, but I want you, or Eric, to make an actual argument, and bring receipts, for exactly what Zach did last season to be given any credit for that 8-3 record

I can tell you a lot his presence around the bucket on defense do know how many players miss there shots on contest shots that he does I can tell you against philadelphia last year in the bubble out 18 shots against him 5 made 13 misses. I seen him take Morant drive away from him I also seen him stay right with Westbrook on switches. He the only big we got can switch off about anyone and have decent successful rate. Now offense really how many fowards besides Melo have actually been attributer playing with Dame and CJ. Once in awhile Covington have a big game and Jones the 5 option on the offense just like Zach was when play along side them two. I hope if Olshey offer the qualify offer and he takes it and becomes UFA the year after that I believe that would be his best option.

 

[wizenheimer]

I can tell you a lot his presence around the bucket on defense do know how many players miss there shots on contest shots that he does I can tell you against philadelphia last year in the bubble out 18 shots against him 5 made 13 misses. I seen him take Morant drive away from him I also seen him stay right with Westbrook on switches. He the only big we got can switch off about anyone and have decent successful rate. Now offense really how many fowards besides Melo have actually been attributer playing with Dame and CJ. Once in awhile Covington have a big game and Jones the 5 option on the offense just like Zach was when play along side them two. I hope if Olshey offer the qualify offer and he takes it and becomes UFA the year after that I believe that would be his best option.

are you actually saying Zach is better than RoCo?

 

[James lamphear]

that's a terrible argument. Basically, you're saying it a good thing Portland didn't draft all-star level talent like Mitchell or Bam because the Blazers would have grossly mismanaged the roster & rotation. So sure, it's much better Portland has a guy who hasn't played for 2 years than a 2nd all-star

Tell me on Mitchell when he was drafted you think he play over Dame and CJ the answer is no and probably would have stunt his growth and his 2nd year probably not. Bam he really didn't do much his 1st and 2nd year his 3rd year when actually took off. But say we draft him he was going play behind Nurk and really not PF in Stotts offense he might got lucky when Nurk got hurt that might been his chance to shine. So you got they went to good situations for them and plus there not playing along side 2 guys that's put over 40 shots a game. I think Zach probably would be find in different situation if stay healthy especially with a team with some ball movement.

 

[James lamphear]

that's a terrible argument. Basically, you're saying it a good thing Portland didn't draft all-star level talent like Mitchell or Bam because the Blazers would have grossly mismanaged the roster & rotation. So sure, it's much better Portland has a guy who hasn't played for 2 years than a 2nd all-star

By away neither those players wouldn't be all stars if the the Blazers would have draft them.

 

[James lamphear]

are you actually saying Zach is better than RoCo?

I think Zach stays in front of someone better then Roco. Roco to me play the passing lanes better and help defense is good. But I also have seen him not staying in front of players too. Zach moves his feet better and when he does have one get by him I seen him be able to still contest a shot. Offensely they are different type players Roco decent 3 point shooter and Zach improve every year but Zach has inside game plus he also improving his mid range game. Both decent free throw shooter but as little edge on Zach in that department. Roco is stronger then Zach right now. Both of them are decent players but I would like to see playing next to each other with Nurk on that front line that would be very strong on the defense side of the ball. I would love to see Dame Powell Nurk Zach Roco starting lineup next year.

 

[Propagandist]

Tell me on Mitchell when he was drafted you think he play over Dame and CJ the answer is no and probably would have stunt his growth and his 2nd year probably not. Bam he really didn't do much his 1st and 2nd year his 3rd year when actually took off. But say we draft him he was going play behind Nurk and really not PF in Stotts offense he might got lucky when Nurk got hurt that might been his chance to shine. So you got they went to good situations for them and plus there not playing along side 2 guys that's put over 40 shots a game. I think Zach probably would be find in different situation if stay healthy especially with a team with some ball movement.

Come on, man, claiming that we are better off with worse players is painful to read and absurd. Regret is silly, too, but I think it's easy to say, for example, that we'd rather have Bam or Mitchell any day over Zach. But franchises make mistakes or swing and miss or whathaveyou. So it goes.

(And just to address the whole Mitchell stunted growth thing: Norman Powell is in our starting line-up. Not that I like Powell in the starting lineup, but the idea of Dame, CJ, and Powell isn't all that different from Dame, CJ, and Mitchell. Teams figure it out. THAT BEING SAID, I agree with what you seem to be implying: that the Blazers are a mess and likely would have botched the growth of said players, like they seem to have done with Nas.)

 

[wizenheimer]

Tell me on Mitchell when he was drafted you think he play over Dame and CJ the answer is no and probably would have stunt his growth and his 2nd year probably not. Bam he really didn't do much his 1st and 2nd year his 3rd year when actually took off. But say we draft him he was going play behind Nurk and really not PF in Stotts offense he might got lucky when Nurk got hurt that might been his chance to shine. So you got they went to good situations for them and plus there not playing along side 2 guys that's put over 40 shots a game. I think Zach probably would be find in different situation if stay healthy especially with a team with some ball movement.

in other words, you are doubling down on the argument that it's better that Portland didn't draft all-star level talent because the Blazers would have mismanaged the situation. I guess with Olshey and Stotts in charge, that may be true

answer this: would Portland be better off if they would have drafted Adebayo or Mitchell instead of Zach? Would they be better off if they would have drafted John Collins + Jarret Allen instead of Zach? Or John Collins + OG Anunoby?

 

[Stevenson]

A great basketball team is like a jigsaw puzzle. All of the pieces fit to make the whole work. The 80s Lakers and 90s Bulls were like that.

Zack and Nurk are/were two critical puzzle pieces for us. Without Zack, the team is missing a key ingredient. Not that he is that great, but he could have made the team as a whole work.

 

[Propagandist]

A great basketball team is like a jigsaw puzzle. All of the pieces fit to make the whole work. The 80s Lakers and 90s Bulls were like that.

Zack and Nurk are/were two critical puzzle pieces for us. Without Zack, the team is missing a key ingredient. Not that he is that great, but he could have made the team as a whole work.

I agree about the missing ingredients, EXCEPT for the ingredients mentioned. Our greatest success in the playoffs came with no Nurk and Zach off the bench and Moe and Chief as the starters. We made the WCF with those guys then cast them off and nothing has been the same since...

 

[Propagandist]

Upon further reflection, it seems clear that Olshey's ghosting of Chief and trading of Moe in order to force Zach into the starting lineup was a gamble that has had an unforeseen negative impact on the roster. I don't fault Olshey for trying, but I think he failed nevertheless. In fact, the Roco/DJJ trade and signing almost seems to be him acknowledging that as he attempted to recreate that Chief/Moe dynamic with similar pieces. Unfortunately, it just hasn't quite worked.

 

[James lamphear]

in other words, you are doubling down on the argument that it's better that Portland didn't draft all-star level talent because the Blazers would have mismanaged the situation. I guess with Olshey and Stotts in charge, that may be true

answer this: would Portland be better off if they would have drafted Adebayo or Mitchell instead of Zach? Would they be better off if they would have drafted John Collins + Jarret Allen instead of Zach? Or John Collins + OG Anunoby?

What I saying without opportunities they would be in same situation that Zach is in. Now do think all these players are better then Zach in there situation right there yes but I also think there opportunities if drafted by Portland it wouldn't not been there as they are with teams. All these players would been hold back if they would have been drafted by Portland. Especially playing Stotts style of ball. All this players need the opportunities to have ball in there hands to achieve what they do but Zach don't he fits with Stotts style of play. Mitchell Stotts but you would have to trade CJ or do want doing with powell but still about opportunities. He playing along side two ball dominating guards. All these players you mentioned all in great situations there teams have great ball movement so they get to touch that give them the opportunities to score.

 

[James lamphear]

Come on, man, claiming that we are better off with worse players is painful to read and absurd. Regret is silly, too, but I think it's easy to say, for example, that we'd rather have Bam or Mitchell any day over Zach. But franchises make mistakes or swing and miss or whathaveyou. So it goes.

(And just to address the whole Mitchell stunted growth thing: Norman Powell is in our starting line-up. Not that I like Powell in the starting lineup, but the idea of Dame, CJ, and Powell isn't all that different from Dame, CJ, and Mitchell. Teams figure it out. THAT BEING SAID, I agree with what you seem to be implying: that the Blazers are a mess and likely would have botched the growth of said players, like they seem to have done with Nas.)

I would guaranteed you that Mitchell would not be the player he is today playing along aside Dame and CJ and would not made the all star. These players went to teams that opportunities to fill there full potential I don't see in Portland. But if you have Zach 15 shots a game is offense stats might pretty decent. He was getting 6 attempt and 2 or 3 of them came offense rebounds. Do I think we mess sure because we don't play team basketball on either end and when do look good but that's 12 or less minutes each night.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

I agree about the missing ingredients, EXCEPT for the ingredients mentioned. Our greatest success in the playoffs came with no Nurk and Zach off the bench and Moe and Chief as the starters. We made the WCF with those guys then cast them off and nothing has been the same since...

But during the important moments of playoffs, we benched Mo/Aminu and played Hood/Collins. We would’ve been great last year with them as starters but they both got hurt.

 

[Propagandist]

But during the important moments of playoffs, we benched Mo/Aminu and played Hood/Collins. We would’ve been great last year with them as starters but they both got hurt.

My brain doesn't do the what-could-have-been stuff because it wasn't. In other words, you can't really say that.

(and that benched stuff just isn't factual either.)

 

[Propagandist]

I would guaranteed you that Mitchell would not be the player he is today playing along aside Dame and CJ and would not made the all star. These players went to teams that opportunities to fill there full potential I don't see in Portland. But if you have Zach 15 shots a game is offense stats might pretty decent. He was getting 6 attempt and 2 or 3 of them came offense rebounds. Do I think we mess sure because we don't play team basketball on either end and when do look good but that's 12 or less minutes each night.

You cannot guarantee events in alternate realities; it just isn't possible. And I guess it's kind of silly to argue about this, but it feels like the baby version of justifying picking Bowie over Jordan because we had Drexler.

Talent trumps all. You draft the best guys or you regret it, it seems. That being said, Olshey did think Zach was the future cornerstone of the franchise or some such thing, so he followed his gut. Thus far, it seems clear his gut was mistaken, and Zach's ceiling has sunk from such lofty heights to the borderline between an NBA player and not an NBA player...

 

[hoopsjock]

Upon further reflection, it seems clear that Olshey's ghosting of Chief and trading of Moe in order to force Zach into the starting lineup was a gamble that has had an unforeseen negative impact on the roster. I don't fault Olshey for trying, but I think he failed nevertheless. In fact, the Roco/DJJ trade and signing almost seems to be him acknowledging that as he attempted to recreate that Chief/Moe dynamic with similar pieces. Unfortunately, it just hasn't quite worked.

Had Zach been injured much his first two seasons though? For any GM it's hard to plan on a guy who you're counting on to make a big 3rd year jump to basically not be available for two years when there weren't really signs of him being injury prone or anything.

It was different with Nurk because Olshey knew he'd be out a significant portion of the 2020-21 season thus making planning for it more realistic.

Then Skal goes down on top of that right when he was playing well enough to be inserted into the starting lineup. I'm not saying anyone should get a pass for this but when you already have an injured big on the roster like Nurk was any other big man injuries would've been devastating no matter what Olshey did. Aminu got hurt too and missed a good portion of the last two seasons. Had that happened here we'd be in the same position.

 

[hoopsjock]

You cannot guarantee events in alternate realities; it just isn't possible. And I guess it's kind of silly to argue about this, but it feels like the baby version of justifying picking Bowie over Jordan because we had Drexler.

Talent trumps all. You draft the best guys or you regret it, it seems. That being said, Olshey did think Zach was the future cornerstone of the franchise or some such thing, so he followed his gut. Thus far, it seems clear his gut was mistaken, and Zach's ceiling has sunk from such lofty heights to the borderline between an NBA player and not an NBA player...

I wanted Mitchell in that draft. I grew to like what Collins brings but hated that pick at the time. Mitchell likely would've been good even if he had a limited role at first but doesn't everyone kill Olshey when he drafts a guard no matter how good he is?

As for Bam, I don't buy that he should've been our pick. He was an energy big who could rebound and score around the basket in college. He showed absolutely zero playmaking ability or defensive versatility on the perimeter like he's become now. Of course hindsight would've been great but with Bam I think he was a product of going to the perfect system to develop those hidden talents. He's a tough one to gauge how he would've been on another team.

 

[hoopsjock]

I agree about the missing ingredients, EXCEPT for the ingredients mentioned. Our greatest success in the playoffs came with no Nurk and Zach off the bench and Moe and Chief as the starters. We made the WCF with those guys then cast them off and nothing has been the same since...

Moe and Aminu were really bad in our WCF run and just about everyone unanimously thought Stotts should make the move to have Hood and Zach start instead of them.

 

[Cugel]

Hindsight is 20 20. It's not worth second of your time to think what should have or could have been.

 

[Stevenson]

Glad I'm not the one defending Chief and Mo!