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2 cuts are needed. Who will not be on the opening day roster (assuming Omari Johnson will be cut.)?


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This is one of the worst things we could do with our space in my opinion. I would rather sign three Ed Davis/Aminu types over a one year rental that will resent being here and would bolt after a year.

Spending the cap space on guys who won't make enough of a difference isn't ideal, IMO. Especially if it consumes your cap for years going forward. Using it on expiring deals gives you a chance at next year's FAs or salary dumps by teams chasing them.
 
Spending the cap space on guys who won't make enough of a difference isn't ideal, IMO. Especially if it consumes your cap for years going forward. Using it on expiring deals gives you a chance at next year's FAs or salary dumps by teams chasing them.

We are probably not going to be huge players in FA anyway. We need to get value out of that space. My thinking is that we get players that outperform those contracts. Using it up on one player that hurts our one year tank (hopefully) does little long term.

A better alternative is doing what Boston did last year with its space.
 
We are probably not going to be huge players in FA anyway. We need to get value out of that space. My thinking is that we get players that outperform those contracts. Using it up on one player that hurts our one year tank (hopefully) does little long term.

A better alternative is doing what Boston did last year with its space.

No need for cap space to burn a hole in your pocket. You don't have to sign free agents with it. You can take lopsided trades for guys just as good as the best FAs with cap space.

I don't see why FAs won't come to Portland. You have one of the best owners in the league, a great city, and great fans. FAs are signing in Milwaukee of all places - what makes that city better than Portland? (Nothing).

Right now, LMA has tied Olshey's hands by not making a decision. Meanwhile, the teams dumping salary to be able to sign him or other high prices FAs are pretty much done with their dealing. But there will be similar dealing next year and Neil's hands won't be tied waiting on his own players to make their decisions.
 
I'm fine with exploring trades to use our cap space. But Joe Johnson would be a horrific move. Was that a serious suggestion? At 34 he's well past his prime. The Blazers won't be contenders so at best if he plays well he takes opportunities away from our younger players and gives us a worse draft pick. With such a large contract even if he plays good he won't have trade value at the deadline.

I think the Aminu and Ed Davis uses of cap space are great. If theres more young players with upside Neil should make more similar moves. Or a veteran that has the potential of greatly increasing their trade value. David Lee, Roy Hibbert, Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson are veterans that could play well and become assets at the trade deadline. Joe Johnson makes so much even if he plays great teams won't give us value for him. If none of those veterans are available we could always wait with the cap space during the season and snag some assets from a team who decides they want to give them up to drop below the tax. Even if we are below the minimum salary all it means is the Blazers have to pay the difference to our players on the roster. That could potentially be a valuable recruiting tool for next summers free agents. "Last year our players with a $5 million contract actually got paid $8 million"
 
It's a serious suggestion.

Johnson is 34. He has a $24M EXPIRING CONTRACT. The expiring contract is basically what you're trading for. You capture ~$25M in cap space next summer.

It's a rental that gets you depth at SG and SF and cap space next season. I bet you can score a draft pick for taking on the salary, too.

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it saves BKN a metric butt-ton of luxury tax, but their cupboard is pretty bare.

Incoming
Brooklyn Nets
2017 second round draft pick from Boston
Boston has the right to swap its 2017 1st round pick for Brooklyn's 2017 1st round pick; if Boston exercises this swap right, then Boston will convey its 2017 2nd round pick to Brooklyn protected for selections 31-45 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Boston's obligation to Brooklyn will be extinguished) [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]; this potential pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2017 first round draft pick from Brooklyn" on Boston Credits

Outgoing
2016 first round draft pick to Boston

Brooklyn's 2016 1st round pick to Boston [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]
2016 second round draft pick to L.A. Clippers
L.A. Clippers have the right to swap their 2016 2nd round pick protected for selections 56-60 for Brooklyn's 2016 2nd round pick (if the L.A. Clippers' pick falls within its protected range, then the L.A. Clippers' swap right and Brooklyn's obligation to the L.A. Clippers will be extinguished) [Brooklyn-L.A. Clippers, 7/11/2012]
2017 first round draft pick to Boston
Boston has the right to swap its 2017 1st round pick for Brooklyn's 2017 1st round pick; if Boston exercises this swap right, then Boston will convey its 2017 2nd round pick to Brooklyn protected for selections 31-45 (if this pick falls within its protected range and is therefore not conveyed, then Boston's obligation to Brooklyn will be extinguished) [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]; this potential pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2017 second round draft pick from Boston" on Brooklyn Credits
2017 second round draft pick to Atlanta
Brooklyn's 2017 2nd round pick to Atlanta [Atlanta-Brooklyn, 7/11/2012]
2018 first round draft pick to Boston
Brooklyn's 2018 1st round pick to Boston [Boston-Brooklyn, 7/12/2013]
2018 second round draft pick to Charlotte
Charlotte will receive the less favorable of Brooklyn's 2018 2nd round pick and Cleveland's 2018 2nd round pick and Philadelphia will receive the more favorable of these two picks (via Philadelphia's right to swap Cleveland for Brooklyn) [Cleveland-Philadelphia, 9/27/2014; Brooklyn-Philadelphia, 12/11/2014; Brooklyn-Charlotte, 6/25/2015]; this pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2018 second round draft pick from Cleveland" on Charlotte Credits
2018 second round draft pick to Philadelphia
Philadelphia will receive the more favorable of Brooklyn's 2018 2nd round pick and Cleveland's 2018 2nd round pick and Charlotte will receive the less favorable of these two picks (via Philadelphia's right to swap Cleveland for Brooklyn) [Cleveland-Philadelphia, 9/27/2014; Brooklyn-Philadelphia, 12/11/2014]; this pick conveyance is the same as the one described in "2018 second round draft pick from Cleveland" on Philadelphia Credits
2019 second round draft pick to Charlotte
Brooklyn's 2019 2nd round pick to Charlotte [Brooklyn-Charlotte, 6/25/2015]
2020 second round draft pick to Philadelphia
Brooklyn's 2020 2nd round pick to Philadelphia [Brooklyn-Philadelphia, 12/11/2014]
 
It's a serious suggestion.

Johnson is 34. He has a $24M EXPIRING CONTRACT. The expiring contract is basically what you're trading for. You capture ~$25M in cap space next summer.

It's a rental that gets you depth at SG and SF and cap space next season. I bet you can score a draft pick for taking on the salary, too.

View attachment 5410

We have the cap space RIGHT NOW. Cap space RIGHT NOW is more valuable than cap space NEXT YEAR

If they give us a first round pick hell yes do it but I highly doubt we can get that.
 
We have the cap space RIGHT NOW. Cap space RIGHT NOW is more valuable than cap space NEXT YEAR

It depends on what you spend it on, doesn't it? If the choices now is hamburger and the choice next year is filet mignon, I say go for the filet.

Johnson is still pretty good for a guy who's 34, so you do get a useful player for the year.

Let me put it another way. If you use the cap space now, you get 3 guys like CJ Watson or maybe a bit better. If you wait a year, you have a shot at Durant. If you use the cap space now, you have NO chance at Durant.

If you think Durant coming to Portland is a fantasy, then consider teams will be doing salary dumps to be able to make him and other elite FAs offers next summer and cap space can absorb some really good players' contracts.
 
We don't have to put an order in now.

Your comparing acquiring Joe Johnson's expiring contract with the Blazers locking up long term bad deals? Well sure Johnson is a superior option of the two.

But theres plenty of other options for us to use cap space. Its not an either/or between those two crappy alternatives. We'll likely have an easy ability to get max cap room next summer regardless of what acquisitions Neil makes.

How about we don't do either of your crappy ideas? If we want to acquire veterans on expiring deals theres others besides Joe Johnson. If we want to acquire players on longer contract don't blow it all on CJ Watson.

We can do absolutely nothing and keep tons of cap room for all season long and next summer. Neil sticking his head in the sand is a superior option to acquiring Joe Johnson.
 
Here's a list of FAs this summer, and who many have signed with already.

http://www.nba.com/freeagents/2015/

Who are you going to use the cap space on?

The obvious, and I approve, is LMA.

If not, then what?
 
We posted at the same time.

I'm not seeing much that's available that makes sense to commit cap space to beyond this season. That's where the idea of Johnson comes in.

David Lee can be had. Unlike Johnson, the guy wasn't able to play more than 49 games. Hibbert? Huge mistake. Olshey probably could have had him already and hasn't made the Blazers into the third team in the Lee for Hibbert for cap space deal.

Tobias Harris is a RFA, and I think Orlando will match offers for him. I don't see much in the way of rumors about him, other than teams (Boston) dropping out of the bidding for him.

What exactly don't you like about renting Joe Johnson for a season? Mythical "better" options isn't an answer unless you can be specific.
 
My current estimates:

Aminu 7,030,000
Davis 6,380,000
Henderson 6,000,000
Kaman 5,016,000
Lillard 4,236,287
Leonard 3,075,880
Vonleh 2,637,720
McCollum 2,525,160
Plumlee 1,415,520
Crabbe 947,276
Frazier 845,069

Total Committed 40,108,911
Estimated Cap 69,000,000
Estimated Cap room 28,891,089
Current depth chart
Plumlee/ Davis/ Kaman
Leonard/ Vonleh
Aminu / Crabbe
Henderson/ CJ/ Pat
Lillard/ Frazier

3 roster spots available although Frazier/Crabbe/Pat can be cut if superior value is available.
If LMA signs we should pay him the max and structure the contract like Davis' contract, not Ed Davis then we should sign Mathews for 13M per year and ROLO for 8Mper year and with the young talent we should be able to compete with anyone. If LMA does not sign I still think signing Mathews, Rolo, and Dorell wright would be a positive move. We would still have the MLE and about 8M of cap space to acquire another player. Thanks for posting this.
 
We posted at the same time.

I'm not seeing much that's available that makes sense to commit cap space to beyond this season. That's where the idea of Johnson comes in.

David Lee can be had. Unlike Johnson, the guy wasn't able to play more than 49 games. Hibbert? Huge mistake. Olshey probably could have had him already and hasn't made the Blazers into the third team in the Lee for Hibbert for cap space deal.

Tobias Harris is a RFA, and I think Orlando will match offers for him. I don't see much in the way of rumors about him, other than teams (Boston) dropping out of the bidding for him.

What exactly don't you like about renting Joe Johnson for a season? Mythical "better" options isn't an answer unless you can be specific.

I don't like the idea of sticking a 34 year old starter on the team regardless of salary. We are going young and if we bring in an old guy he needs to be a Chris Kaman type that is happy to watch younger players play. We aren't trying to win games so Joe Johnson makes no sense.

These are free agents I'd see if we could get on reasonable contracts:

Sergio Rodriguez - Europe age29
Wesley Johnson - LAL age27
John Jenkins - ATL age24
Wayne Ellington - LAL age27
Kosta Koufos - MEM age26
Kevin Seraphin - WSH age25
Bismack Biyombo - CHA age22
Cole Aldrich - NYK age26
Joel Freeland - POR age28

Except for Koufos those are all borderline rotational players. We could overpay them on a one year deal with team options. If they shock us and improve then they have trade value or value to us. If they don't then we're just as good off as Joe Johnson.

PG Cory Joseph - SAS age23 (restricted)
SG KJ McDaniels - HOU age22 (restricted)

Cory Joseph will probably be unrestricted if the Spurs as expected get Aldridge. I'd definitely look at signing him.

These are players I'd rather target in a trade:

Mario Chalmers - MIA age29 $4.3
Jeff Green - MEM age28 $9.2
David Lee - GS age32 $15.5
Taj Gibson - CHI age30 $8.5/9.0
Joakim Noah - CHI age30 $13.4
Roy Hibbert - IND age28 $15.5

We might not be able to get any of them so if not do one of the options above.

If none of those options are available just wait. Some team might give up a prospect to get out of the luxury tax as the season goes on. Thats a better plan than Joe Johnsons extremely negative value contract.
 
If LMA signs we should pay him the max and structure the contract like Davis' contract, not Ed Davis then we should sign Mathews for 13M per year and ROLO for 8Mper year and with the young talent we should be able to compete with anyone. If LMA does not sign I still think signing Mathews, Rolo, and Dorell wright would be a positive move. We would still have the MLE and about 8M of cap space to acquire another player. Thanks for posting this.

You don't get out much do you?
 
I updated the main post to include:
- Signing of Al-Farouq Aminu to 4 yr/$30M. I assumed 4.5% raises, although it could be structured differently.
- Signing of Ed Davis to 3 yr/$20M. I assumed 4.5% raises, although it could be structured differently.
- Updated salary cap estimate to $69.1M. Actual number to come out at the end of the moratorium period.
- Removal of CAP holds for those players that have received offers from other teams.
- I moved Allen Crabbe and Tim Frazer to the signed section until we hear if their team options are picked up.

Assuming the CAP is at $69.1M, that gives the Blazers $28,488,218 of CAP space.

Our roster is top heavy at the moment with quite a few Bigs. With no big time free agents left to use the CAP space on, my guess is we're going to be looking at a lopsided trade to pick up a wing player. They may also get involved with a multi-team trade and pick up future draft choices to absorb contracts. In this 'reloading' period, the Blazers will probably be looking to grab as many future draft choices as possible along with young talent with trade-able contracts.
 
Spending the cap space on guys who won't make enough of a difference isn't ideal, IMO. Especially if it consumes your cap for years going forward. Using it on expiring deals gives you a chance at next year's FAs or salary dumps by teams chasing them.
And Kevin Durant will be a free agent next summer.
 
We posted at the same time.

I'm not seeing much that's available that makes sense to commit cap space to beyond this season. That's where the idea of Johnson comes in.

David Lee can be had. Unlike Johnson, the guy wasn't able to play more than 49 games. Hibbert? Huge mistake. Olshey probably could have had him already and hasn't made the Blazers into the third team in the Lee for Hibbert for cap space deal.

Tobias Harris is a RFA, and I think Orlando will match offers for him. I don't see much in the way of rumors about him, other than teams (Boston) dropping out of the bidding for him.

What exactly don't you like about renting Joe Johnson for a season? Mythical "better" options isn't an answer unless you can be specific.
Robert Covington?
 


Theres been a few signings since he posted this. So teams with more than the MLE in cap room are the following:

POR 24.3
ORL 17.4
PHI 15.7
UTH 9.4
DEN 6.5
IND 6.1

Actual cap space could be a couple million higher if cap is $69 million instead of $67. The exact cap will be finalized Jul 8th.
 
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I updated the main post to include:
- Signing of Al-Farouq Aminu to 4 yr/$30M. I assumed 4.5% raises, although it could be structured differently.
- Signing of Ed Davis to 3 yr/$20M. I assumed 4.5% raises, although it could be structured differently.
- Updated salary cap estimate to $69.1M. Actual number to come out at the end of the moratorium period.
- Removal of CAP holds for those players that have received offers from other teams.
- I moved Allen Crabbe and Tim Frazer to the signed section until we hear if their team options are picked up.

Assuming the CAP is at $69.1M, that gives the Blazers $28,488,218 of CAP space.

Our roster is top heavy at the moment with quite a few Bigs. With no big time free agents left to use the CAP space on, my guess is we're going to be looking at a lopsided trade to pick up a wing player. They may also get involved with a multi-team trade and pick up future draft choices to absorb contracts. In this 'reloading' period, the Blazers will probably be looking to grab as many future draft choices as possible along with young talent with trade-able contracts.

Since we have so much extra cap space I suspect Aminu and Davis contracts will be finalized with maximum declining amounts of 4.5% so they start at about $8.05 million and $7.0 million.
 
Since we have so much extra cap space I suspect Aminu and Davis contracts will be finalized with maximum declining amounts of 4.5% so they start at about $8.05 million and $7.0 million.
With the cap taking huge jumps over the next few years (Most teams will have money to sped), I wonder if the Blazers have any advantage structuring the contracts that way. As we've shown this year, the Blazers are not at a competitive advantage when everyone else also has cap space. I think the Blazer Cap space is most effective this year as other teams try to dump salary trying to free up room for next year.
 
So $3 million more than some teams planned for. Interesting if this will change any teams plans that were very close to the limit.
 
Assuming the CAP is at $70.0M, that gives the Blazers $29,388,218 of CAP space. (depending upon the structure of the new FA signings.)
 
These are slightly different than what I calculated -
 

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