Blazers Starters: 11 Best

[Boob-No-More]

per CBS:

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-30-nba-starting-lineups-hint-warriors-are-pretty-good/

Agree, disagree, comments?

BNM

 

[illmatic99]

Detroit? Atlanta? Really? Come back to me when they get two explosive scorers in their lineups.

Utah is getting criminally overrated this year. Their lack of a go to scorer is going to keep on haunting them, and watching George Hill up close in Indy was a revelation: he sucks, and is about as average as a guy can get. Weak handle, doesn't really create all that much, average scorer, aka a typical Utah player. I see them winning in the mid 40s.

I'd put us in the 5-8 range.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Here's a few I question:

10. Atlanta Hawks: Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore, Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, Dwight Howard

Too high. This is a team on the way down. They are depending on three older players and one younger player who is unproven as a starter. The only starter they have in his prime is Bazermore, and his prime is pretty meh. He's a solid perimeter defender, but he has to be because Korver is already 35 and was never a good defender and Schroder is very small and weak and will get abused by other starting PGs on the defensive end.

Millsap will be his usual solid self on both ends, but the real key is Dwight Howard. Will returning home to the ATL provide a resurgence in his play, or will his back continue to limit is playing time, mobility and effectiveness. I think he'll be solid, but his days as Superman are long since past.

Their starting 1 - 3 positions will flat out suck. Schroder is highly overrated. He looked ok against other backups, but at 6'1" and 172 lbs, he will get abused as a starter. He's a poor 3-point shooter whose OBPM, DBPM and BPM were all negative - and that was playing mostly against other back ups. Korver just flat out sucked last year. He is a standstill shooter, who only got to the FT line 54 times in over 2400 minutes played, who is also a standstill defender on the other end. In over 2400 minutes, he only scored 739 points. Mason Plumlee, our 5th option on offense scored 10 more points in over 300 fewer minutes. Think about that, Mason Plumlee, who gets criticized for his lack of a jump shot, is more of an offensive threat than Kyle Korver. Which might not be bad, if Korver contributed in other ways. He does not. Which is why he has a single digit PER, which would suck for your 10th man, let alone one of your starters. Bazemore doesn't totally suck, but he's nothing special. His averageness will do nothing to make up for his fellow starters' suckage.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Detroit? Atlanta? Really? Come back to me when they get two explosive scorers in their lineups.

Utah is getting criminally overrated this year. Their lack of a go to scorer is going to keep on haunting them, and watching George Hill up close in Indy was a revelation: he sucks, and is about as average as a guy can get. Weak handle, doesn't really create all that much, average scorer, aka a typical Utah player. I see them winning in the mid 40s.

I'd put us in the 5-8 range.

Wow, you read my mind. I was typing up my comments about ATL while you were posting and I planned to move on to DET next - for exactly the same reason you mentioned.

BNM

 

[PDXFonz]

#They

I laughed when I saw the Jazz were that high.

Memphis too. Memphis is a good bet for a flop team this year IMO.

 

[Chris Craig]

#They

I laughed when I saw the Jazz were that high.

Memphis too. Memphis is a good bet for a flop team this year IMO.

Yeah I laughed when I saw them at the 5 spot. There are several lineups that aren't correct...Adams over Kanter for OKC( not that it matters) projecting that Pachulia will be a starter for the Warriors was the last straw, I quickly closed the page without further thought. The Blazers should be at the 5

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Weren't we ranked 28th or 29th last year? That's a huge jump!

At this rate we'll be the greatest team ever next season.

 

[THE HCP]

#23Wins

 

[Pinwheel1]

I think Indiana is too low at 19, and the Jazz are too high at 5. Who's starters would you prefer in the closing minutes when the game is on the line. A lineup of Paul George, Monta Ellis, and Jeff Teague is going to finish strong.

 

[Chris Craig]

I love it when we are underestimated...apparently these guys didn't watch last season...

 

[Boob-No-More]

9. Detroit Pistons: Reggie Jackson, Kentavious Caldwell Pope, Marcus Morris, Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond

Again way too high. Their win total will benefit from playing in the East (as will ATL, TOR and well, pretty much any above .500 team in the Eastern Conference).

yuyuza1 hit the nail on the head. They have no go to scorer. They don't have a single player on their roster that has ever averaged 20 ppg. Reggie Jackson, their best player, averaged a career high 18.8 ppg last season (somebody has to score). He's a decent player, but not a star. His 3-point shooting is slightly below league average, and when you're best player is a below average shooter, it helps explain why your team ranked 21st in 3FG%.

Andre Drummond is an absolute stud on the glass, he's a solid rim protector but overrated. In this regard, Festus Ezeli's BLK% of 4.8 was 1.5x that of Drummond's BLK% of 3.2. Offensively, he dunks a lot, which is good since his range is limited to 3 feet. And, he is an absolute nightmare at the FT line, where he missed almost 100 more FTs (378 missed FTs) than out entire starting 5 combined (281 missed FTs). Out here in the West, when we think inept FT shooters, guys you intentionally foul, we think of DeAndre Jordan (.430 FT%) and Dwight Howard (.489 FT%), well Drummond at .355 FT% is in a league of his own. He is such a liability, you can't afford to have him on the court at the end of close games. It's ironic, but his biggest strength (rebounding) makes his biggest weakness even more of a liability. With the hack-a-whoever rules changing, it makes fouling away from the ball less appealing, but it doesn't stop you from fouling the player with the ball. The rest of their front court sucks at rebounding, and 14.8 rpg for Drummond means 14.8 opportunities to foul him with the ball in his hands. And, forget feeding him the ball in the low post late in the game. He would be hacked instantly, except for one thing, he's sitting on the bench. His FT shooting is such a liability, Stan Van Gundy routinely benches him in the 4th quarter of close games.

Their other starters, outside of Marcus Morris, are pretty average. They don't suck, but they aren't all that great either. Caldwell-Pope and Tobias Harris are both young and can still improve. Caldwell-Pope can't shoot to save his life, but is decently average at most other things. Tobias Harris, had a nice 27 game run for the Pistons, but it makes you wonder why ORL gave him away for free at only 23 years old. Of course, they also gave us Harkless at 22 for free. So, who knows what they fuck they are thinking. And, then there is Marcus Morris, a stretch-4 who barely shoots at the league average, is an exceptionally weak rebounder (TRB% of 7.7 would make Andrea Bargnani blush with embarassement) and a poor defender. He may be the worst starting PF in the league. He will turn 27 in a month. He's spent his entire career being below average, and is not going to get better. In fact, he's in a bit of a decline statistically. His best season was three years ago, coming off the bench, in PHO - which is what he should be doing in DET. He is not a quality starter.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

I think Indiana is too low at 19, and the Jazz are too high at 5. Who's starters would you prefer in the closing minutes when the game is on the line. A lineup of Paul George, Monta Ellis, and Jeff Teague is going to finish strong.

Agreed on both. IND is very underrated and UTA very overrated.

19. Indiana Pacers: Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner

That right there is a damn good starting 5, especially in the East. I'd definitely rate those 5 starters WAY ahead of DET and ATL. I'd probably rank them ahead of WAS, too. IND added Teague and Thad Young, who are both above average starters, to a line up that finished with a better record than WAS, who largely stood pat. Miles Turner is a 20-year old shot blocking stud who is surrounded by veterans. He will only get better.

The ONLY thing that will keep IND from being a top 5 seed in the East would be their coach. It will be interesting to see how McScribbles fucks this one up. Will they play his usual ridiculously slow ISO style ball to get a better regular season record and then get booted by a lower seed in the first round, or will he fuck it up from start to finish?

5. Utah Jazz: George Hill, Rodney Hood, Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors, Rudy Gobert

What can I say that hasn't been said. Ok, the "consensus" is that UTA suddenly has the 5th best starters and THE best bench in the entire league. So, if true, they should be one of the top 3 or 4 teams in the entire league, right? Really? They finished below .500 and missed the playoffs last year with 4 of those 5 starters. George Hill suddenly gets them from the lottery to a top 4 seed in the West? I don't fucking think so. Don't get me wrong, they will be better and should make the playoffs, but 5th best starters and the best bench in the entire 30 team NBA? No fucking way. No fucking way in hell.

Like the last couple years, they will be good defensively, but will struggle to score. Like DET, they don't have a single player on their roster that has ever averaged 20 ppg. Hayward has been close, but he's already 26, will never be an all star and his 3-point shooting has been below average for the last 3 years. And for a team who is supposed to be unparalleled defensively, they really aren't that great. Their OPP FG% of .446 was 13th best in the league and not that much better than our .453, good for 16th best. But, supposedly the addition of George Hill now makes them the 5th best starting line up in the entire NBA. We'll see.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

One more:

6. Toronto Raptors: Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll, Patrick Patterson, Jonas Valanciunas

OK, if you just go by final record, since they are in the East, ok, maybe... However, if you're actually talking about the 6th best starting line up in the league, I'd take our starting 5 over theirs. Yep, the won 56 games and fished 2nd in the East last year. Bully for them Congrats on being the second best team in a 1 team deep conference.

It's debatable, but I'll take our starting backcourt over theirs. Our guys are younger and still getting better. Lowry is not as good as Dame and is even more feast and famine, especially in the playoffs. DeRozan may be an all star in the East, but never in the West. In spite of playing fewer MPG, and doing it in a much tougher conference, our guys averaged more PPG and more APG than theirs. Still if you want to call it a wash, because they play better defense, that's fine.

They win the center spot, assuming Valanciunas is healthy. He's bigger and better at both ends than Plumlee. Ezeli is more comparable, but who knows if he'll start. Given his medical history, probably not.

It's the forward positions where we mop the floor with them. Honestly, we have at least 4 guys on our roster than can play PF better than Patrick Patterson. His TRB% of 9.7 is keeping the memory of Andrea Bargnani alive in Toronto. And, as a stretch 4, his 3-point shooting is nothing special. He is, essentially an undersized, poor man's Bargnani.

DeMarre Carroll missed three fourths of the season, and then stunk it up when he did play and stunk even worse in the playoffs. He's kicked around the league forever, only had one above average season and is now on the wrong side of 30. He still brings the hustle and is an aggressive defender, but has always been very limited offensively. He's essentially an older, poor man's Wesley Matthews, and as we saw in DAL last year, Wes isn't the same Wes as he used to be, and Carroll was never as good as Wes to begin with.

Losing both Scola and Biyombo really killed them at the 3 and 4 spot. Even with those two, they didn't have a lot of depth at those position. Now they have none.

BNM

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

#23Wins

By Christmas

 

[chzbrgr]

I know guys like Dame and CJ read this projection nonsense and must just lick their chops to get back out there. I dont understand how we get NO FUCKING LOVE from any of these pundits. What a season they had last year, no expectations with the core of our team's average age is like 23 and made the second round of the playoffs. After NO kept our young unit intact for the foreseeable future and filled our most glaring weaknesses we're supposed to what?...get worse?

MY GOD WHAT DOES IT TAKE TO GET SOME RESPECT

whatever...fuck it, just keep making that shoulder chip bigger cause dame always plays worse when he's angry right?

 

[riverman]

Dame will get another song out of this and chuckle all the way to the bank...The Blazers know who they are...respect..pass it on!

 

[BonesJones]

Utah is so insanely overrated. They have a below average starting backcourt, with two 2nd/3rd options in the frontcourt.

Neither do they have one ABOVE AVERAGE BENCH PIECE. Johnson and Diaw are washed up and old. Burks is solid but always hurt. Exam is overrated and Lyles has shown nothing aside from summer league.

 

[illmatic99]

Another note about Utah that Lowe and Simmons have briefly touched on in the past, for those of you worried about competing with them moving forward.... look at their cap situation.

Next summer, they will have Hayward exercising his player option for a max deal as a UFA. Gobert will be thrown a max deal by some team out there, so UTA will have to match. Their prized new addition of George Hill will be a free agent looking for a 15 mil + deal. Not even considering the Hood extension in 2018, and Favors' max that will be coming then. Their starters alone, will be making over the supposed cap amount in two years.

We've seen first hand how dubious it can be to manage a team with so many free agents. Might be a little quick on the trigger with the Jazz love.

Good luck keeping that core together.

 

[riverman]

Another note about Utah that Lowe and Simmons have briefly touched on in the past, for those of you worried about competing with them moving forward.... look at their cap situation.

Next summer, they will have Hayward exercising his player option for a max deal as a UFA. Gobert will be thrown a max deal by some team out there, so UTA will have to match. Their prized new addition of George Hill will be a free agent looking for a 15 mil + deal. Not even considering the Hood extension in 2018, and Favors' max that will be coming then. Their starters alone, will be making over the supposed cap amount in two years.

We've seen first hand how dubious it can be to manage a team with so many free agents. Might be a little quick on the trigger with the Jazz love.

Good luck keeping that core together.

I thought Hayward was asking to be traded?

 

[Natebishop3]

Unless Exum pans out, I'm just not seeing Utah as a long term threat.

Minnesota scares me much more than Utah. KAT is legit. Wiggins could still improve. Dunn looks like he could be a very good player. LaVine has a lot of potential as well.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Unless Exum pans out, I'm just not seeing Utah as a long term threat.

Minnesota scares me much more than Utah. KAT is legit. Wiggins could still improve. Dunn looks like he could be a very good player. LaVine has a lot of potential as well.

MIN doesn't scare me - yet. They are still very, very young. It's tough to win consistently in the NBA when your three best players are 21 years old. On the flip side, their three best players are 21 years old and bound to improve. KAT is an absolute 2-way stud. They need to lock him up forever. Whenever he is available for an extension, immediately offer him the max. Don't hesitate for one second.

Right now, Wiggins looks like a one dimensional gunner, but compare his season to C.J.'s. Other than 3-point shooting and assists, they are remarkably similar - and Wiggins is 4 years younger and was a one-and-done college player. He will get better, and Thibs will teach him how to play defense at the NBA level. He was all the physical tools to be an excellent defender, and that was supposed to be one of his strengths coming out of college. He will never be LeBron 2.0, but under Thibs, he has a legitimate chance to become Jimmy Butler++.

In addition to their youth, it's their lack of outside shooting, especially a lack of any consistent 3-point threat, that will hold them back - for now. Last year, they were 29th in the league in made 3-pointers and 25th in 3FG% (for comparison, we were 5th in made 3-pointers and 4th in 3FG%). That doesn't cut it in today's NBA, especially in the Western Conference. You need that weapon to compete, and MIN doesn't have it. After cutting Kevin Martin, Zach LaVine and Nemanja Bjelica were their only above average 3-point shooters, and they combined to only make 171 3-pointers. They added Brandon Rush, who played almost halfway decent for GSW last year (PER = 10.1), but that was after one of the worst shooting years in NBA history (.204 FG%, .111 3FG%, .455 FT%, .255 TS%) and three straight years of -7.1, -6.3 and -6.0 BPM. Let's just say he's a bit inconsistent and doesn't generally have a positive overall impact when he's on the court. Their other big acquisition was Kris Dunn, who fell to them at 5th in the draft. He's a very solid prospect, but has poor shooting form and wasn't know as a great shooter in college.

They will be better, and it will come from having a better coach and the growth of their young players, but they finished 13th in the West last year, and will need to leapfrog 5 teams to just make the playoffs and 8 teams to pass us. I think they will be in the fight for the 7th or 8th seed, but that will be their best case this year, while our best case has us fighting for HCA. They should gain ground each year, but I still think they are 3 years away from challenging for the NW Division title.

BNM

 

[Sinobas]

Jazz, Knicks, Hawks, Pistons most severely over-rated. I think the Mavericks will suck with their ancient lineup. Wizards and Pacers should be higher. Also the Lakers have some very good young talent and decent vets.

 

[jlprk]

I like this thread. It's Boob at his best, comparing something (teams, in this case) instead of bitterly butting his head against one imagined opponent (team, player, or poster) with straw man constructs and cherry-picked stats. Boob, it's the first time in awhile that I've enjoyed a long series of your posts. I actually learned from this thread. Usually the best I can hope for from any thread here is just entertainment.

 

[Trackjack]

If Ezeli start I would switch Utah and Portland around.

 

[jlprk]

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-30-nba-starting-lineups-hint-warriors-are-pretty-good/

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/ranking-all-30-nba-benches-a-non-playoff-team-secures-top-spot/

I calculated and sorted the combined scores on a spreadsheet. Notice that some teams get demoted from their high starter scores by their low substitute scores.

* Combined = 3 times Starters rank + Subs rank. In other words, 75% of the Combined score comes from the Starters rank, and 25% of the Combined score comes from the Subs rank.

Rank..Combined*..Starters..Substitutes..Team

01 005 01 02 Golden State Warriors
02 012 02 06 Cleveland Cavaliers
03 016 05 01 Utah Jazz
04 017 04 05 San Antonio Spurs
05 022 06 04 Toronto Raptors
06 024 07 03 Boston Celtics
07 026 03 17 LA Clippers
08 040 09 13 Detroit Pistons
09 040 11 07 Portland Trail Blazers
10 045 08 21 Memphis Grizzlies
11 051 14 09 New York Knicks
12 052 10 22 Atlanta Hawks
13 053 15 08 Chicago Bulls
14 054 12 18 Minnesota Timberwolves
15 059 13 20 Dallas Mavericks
16 059 16 11 Houston Rockets
17 066 18 12 Oklahoma City Thunder
18 070 17 19 Washington Wizards
19 072 19 15 Indiana Pacers
20 080 22 14 Denver Nuggets
21 082 24 10 New Orleans Pelicans
22 087 21 24 Miami Heat
23 088 20 28 Charlotte Bobcats
24 096 23 27 Milwaukee Bucks
25 098 25 23 Orlando Magic
26 104 26 26 Phoenix Suns
27 106 30 16 Philadelphia 76ers
28 106 27 25 Sacramento Kings
29 113 28 29 LA Lakers
30 117 29 30 Brooklyn Nets

 

[Mediocre Man]

 

[rasheedfan2005]

 

[Denny Crane]

I have high expectations for Minny. The players' ages won't matter. Thibs installs a system that takes only a few weeks to learn. He coaches to win every game like it's game 7 of the finals. He developed Rose into MVP, Noah into 1st team all-NBA, late 1st round picks Butler and Gibson. He turned an uncoordinated big guy from Turkey into a starting NBA center.

I think he has more talented players in Minny than he ever had in Chicago.

Yeah, I'm a Thibs fan.

 

[jlprk]

If you subtract sub rank minus starter rank, here is the sort by that divergence. I suppose that an ideally consistent team would be zero. (That's arguable.)

14 LA Clippers
13 Memphis Grizzlies
12 Atlanta Hawks
08 Charlotte Bobcats
07 Dallas Mavericks
06 Minnesota Timberwolves
04 Cleveland Cavaliers
04 Detroit Pistons
04 Milwaukee Bucks
03 Miami Heat
02 Washington Wizards
01 Golden State Warriors
01 San Antonio Spurs
01 LA Lakers
01 Brooklyn Nets
00 Phoenix Suns
-02 Toronto Raptors
-02 Orlando Magic
-02 Sacramento Kings
-04 Utah Jazz
-04 Boston Celtics
-04 Portland Trail Blazers
-04 Indiana Pacers
-05 New York Knicks
-05 Houston Rockets
-06 Oklahoma City Thunder
-07 Chicago Bulls
-08 Denver Nuggets
-14 New Orleans Pelicans
-14 Philadelphia 76ers