Blazers to Tankers: FU, We're Winning

[PCmor7]

The distinction is that many people here would see us making the playoffs as 100% negative. It seems to me that those people actively want us to lose as many regular season games as possible. Whereas me and some others want us to win as many games as possible and would love to make the playoffs.

You really think "many" people would see us making the playoffs as 100 percent negative? I don't think anyone reading most of the posts about getting a high draft pick could realistically conclude that.

I think getting a better draft pick this year is a bigger win for the Blazers than getting into the playoffs. I won't be mad if they make it in. I just think that the team needs more talent, and I think our best opportunity to do that is through the draft, either by picking a player that makes us better or by having a pick to put into a trade that makes us better. If we make the playoffs, we don't have a draft pick, and we'll have to pull off a really good trade and/or making a bigger splash in free agency than we do normally. We can do that, but we also can do both of those things with a high draft pick which gives us more room for error and a better chance of hitting it big.

I like having a team that is always competitive. But I also like to have a team that can challenge to go deep into the playoffs. Barring Vonleh turning into a much better offensive player than he's looking so far, I don't think you can expect any of these other guys to make a CJ-like jump, and that team is at best a borderline playoff team. Get stuck in there and it's hard to get out. However, you add some kind of dynamic presence to the current mix, and suddenly you have a team that might be in the top four in the West for half a decade or more. I'll take missing the playoffs for that over fighting for the eighth spot until Lillard's career is over.

The Blazers aren't the 76ers. The Blazers have talent and the Blazers can play with and sometimes beat very good teams. But they don't have enough of the former to consistently do the latter, so we need more.

Aside from the fact that we've won more than I thought we would, this season has gone pretty close to what I think it had to be for the team to become the best it could be in the next couple of years. I don't root for losses or go to bed mad if we win. I think a lot of fans feel the same way as I do. Like someone else said, this is an 82-game preseason. I think we win pretty much however it turns out, but I think having the lottery pick is the best scenario.

 

[PDXFonz]

I'm still fine either way. I think during seasons like this I instinctively "embrace the tank" to temper my frustrations. If I'm okay with a draft pick then I'm okay losing by 1 point off a turnover.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

For me it comes down to this. I want to see wins. I also would love a lottery pick to get a stud. So cool whichever happens. The best of both worlds would be to get both (would have to be trade of course). Mostly though I want to see improvement and that doesn't necessarily mean wins/losses. With that said, I don't see us in the lottery two straight years (which is what it would take not to lose a 1st rounder to DEN) so I would rather have a high pick in this draft then giving up our pick and having a medicore pick in next year's draft (when I expect us to sneak into playoffs).

 

[VanillaGorilla]

You really think "many" people would see us making the playoffs as 100 percent negative?

Yes. What do quotes like "making the playoffs this year would be an unmitigated disaster" and "The playoffs would be the ABSOLUTE WORST scenario we could hope for" mean to you?

 

[noknobs]

For strategic reasons, making the playoffs this year would be an unmitigated disaster for a team that desperately needs to hit on a talent in the first round. In subsequent years go for it.

The difference in talent level between the 10th pick and the 15th pick is not something I'd characterize as an unmitigated disaster.

 

[dviss1]

All this said, I'd love to see us go after DeMarcus Cousins. This season.

 

[blue9]

I don't see us in the lottery two straight years (which is what it would take not to lose a 1st rounder to DEN) so I would rather have a high pick in this draft then giving up our pick and having a medicore pick in next year's draft (when I expect us to sneak into playoffs).

I mostly agree. What concerns me is the thought that perhaps making the POs this year means missing them next year. By losing that asset it makes it much tougher to make a major improvement during the off season. If all we have is internal growth and another Aminu/Davis-level signing, but one or two of the UTH/DEN/PHX/SAC/MIN-level teams makes a major move, or gets lucky in the draft, then we could easily be leap-frogged given that we're basically a low seeded EC-level PO team from previous seasons. At which point we're sitting where we are right now - just below middle of the pack.

 

[ripcityboy]

I sometimes read these articles and realize how much pressure these guys are under. Being on NBA roster is not a given to a career. It's not like being an A list actor where once you're in "the club" your agent starts receiving scripts. Your expected to be a pro and there are a thousand other guys who want your job. A writer says, "Hey guys! Did you know NBA players are are ACTUALLY motivated to make the playoffs?"
Come on. They are working hard because they've spent their entire lives to get to this point and in a blink, it's gone. How does ANY player last who gets a reputation for 'padding his stats' AND 'half assing it.' If he has talent he might stick, but not for long!

Sent from my SGH-M919 using Tapatalk

 

[Strenuus]

Yes. What do quotes like "making the playoffs this year would be an unmitigated disaster" and "The playoffs would be the ABSOLUTE WORST scenario we could hope for" mean to you?

But it would be, IMO. We'll have differing opinions of it. But for the future of this team, I think making the playoffs in a year we need to grab a talent high in the draft would set us back. Dame is not going to have Lillard time every game of the playoffs, and we need one of him or CJ to go off to compete. Its just the truth.

But, if we win, that's cool too. I'm in the moment AND in the future. I can play both.

 

[PDXFonz]

All this said, I'd love to see us go after DeMarcus Cousins. This season.

Who's playing the 4 then? Plums? Does Plums slide to the bench? What happens with Davis?

Cousins is a good player, but I'm not sure about the fit. It could either push us to the next level, or take us down a notch.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

But it would be, IMO. We'll have differing opinions of it. But for the future of this team, I think making the playoffs in a year we need to grab a talent high in the draft would set us back. Dame is not going to have Lillard time every game of the playoffs, and we need one of him or CJ to go off to compete. Its just the truth.

But, if we win, that's cool too. I'm in the moment AND in the future. I can play both.

The bolded section is the portion with which I take issue. Yes, if you operate under the assumption that the only way for this rebuild to be successful involves a 2015 1st round pick, then your conclusion is valid. However, not all of us share that assumption.

 

[blue9]

Who's playing the 4 then? Plums? Does Plums slide to the bench? What happens with Davis?

Cousins is a good player, but I'm not sure about the fit. It could either push us to the next level, or take us down a notch.

In response to the bolded part: It's win/win! Either he takes us to the next level or we improve our chances at Simmons!
As for the first question: DMC plays PF and Plumlee plays C. Davis plays back-up.

 

[Strenuus]

The bolded section is the portion with which I take issue. Yes, if you operate under the assumption that the only way for this rebuild to be successful involves a 2015 1st round pick, then your conclusion is valid. However, not all of us share that assumption.

Well, it IS a 2016 pick.

And with our location, it's really hard to think we can build through the FA.

 

[Nikolokolus]

The difference in talent level between the 10th pick and the 15th pick is not something I'd characterize as an unmitigated disaster.

You don't get it. We owe Denver our first round pick if we make the playoffs this season. So you're talking about the difference between a lotto pick and no pick at all. Next year the protections turn our owed selection into a second rounder.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

You don't get it. We owe Denver our first round pick if we make the playoffs this season. So you're talking about the difference between a lotto pick and no pick at all. Next year the protections turn our owed selection into a second rounder.

No, the year after does. And 2 not singular.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Well, it IS a 2016 pick.

And with our location, it's really hard to think we can build through the FA.

Touché. And I wouldn't be looking to build through FA; I'd be looking to supplement. And I'd be looking to supplement via trade. And I'd be looking to build via internal development, which I'd assume is occurring if the team becomes good enough to make the playoffs.

Look, if we duplicate our first half record and finish with 32-34 wins, then we'll be in the lottery, and we'll need it. If we see improved cohesion defensively, continued growth from Crabbe, Harkless and (hopefully) Vonleh, and perhaps a return of Plumlee's ability to finish inside, and we play well enough to finish with, say, 38 wins, that will mean that we were above .500 over the second half of the season, with a schedule that, statistically, is supposed to be more difficult than that we played in the first half. If that occurs, I'm going to believe that we're better off--even without adding the #8 pick.

 

[Nikolokolus]

No the year after does.

Oh, so it's worse than I thought. Anyway the point stands that this team probably doesn't want to make the playoffs this year.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Oh, so it's worse than I thought. Anyway the point stands that this team probably doesn't want to make the playoffs this year.

Assume we win tonight (you know, worst-case scenario). Then, further assume that we (horrifically) get the 8 seed, finishing with a record of, say, 40-42. That will mean that over the final 94 days of the season, we went 25-18, a .581 clip, equivalent to a 48-win season. With the amount of youth and inexperience on this team, would you really be pessimistic about their future after that kind of a finish to the season?

 

[Strenuus]

Touché. And I wouldn't be looking to build through FA; I'd be looking to supplement. And I'd be looking to supplement via trade. And I'd be looking to build via internal development, which I'd assume is occurring if the team becomes good enough to make the playoffs.

Look, if we duplicate our first half record and finish with 32-34 wins, then we'll be in the lottery, and we'll need it. If we see improved cohesion defensively, continued growth from Crabbe, Harkless and (hopefully) Vonleh, and perhaps a return of Plumlee's ability to finish inside, and we play well enough to finish with, say, 38 wins, that will mean that we were above .500 over the second half of the season, with a schedule that, statistically, is supposed to be more difficult than that we played in the first half. If that occurs, I'm going to believe that we're better off--even without adding the #8 pick.

It's a win-win!

 

[Nikolokolus]

Assume we win tonight (you know, worst-case scenario). Then, further assume that we (horrifically) get the 8 seed, finishing with a record of, say, 40-42. That will mean that over the final 94 days of the season, we went 25-18, a .581 clip, equivalent to a 48-win season. With the amount of youth and inexperience on this team, would you really be pessimistic about their future after that kind of a finish to the season?

This team doesn't have enough talent to compete with the Warriors, so while winning a few more games here or there might give us warm fuzzy feelings, losing out on the potential a lotto pick represents (for a GM that has shown he is pretty at the draft) makes me think it would be one step forward and two steps back. A tactical win and a strategic loss.

This team is in no position to win anything of significance (i.e. getting to the conference finals) as currently constructed and is realistically two to three years away if everything breaks right. Unfortunately getting to the playoffs this year probably sets that timeline back.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

It's a win-win!

That's what I'm trying to say. The worst thing that could have happened to this team would have been to come out gangbusters over the first half of the season. That didn't happen. Being 8 games under .500 right now means that we will either get the lottery pick you all desire, or actually play like a playoff team over the second half of the season. Either outcome is positive.

 

[PDXFonz]

Well, it IS a 2016 pick.

And with our location, it's really hard to think we can build through the FA.

I'm not so sure about that. Word gets around in the league and many players make friends with team mates and then go off to play somewhere else, but still keep some form of contact.

You should give a listen to Woj's podcast if you haven't already. He talks about the Mo Williams trade and how he spent 40 hours of phone time with Williams' agent, before finally agreeing on the contract. Olshey gave Williams a short stop on a promising team in the hopes that the next season he would have more interest. It didn't work out immediately but in the long run it did as he is now in Cleveland looking to win a ring with the King. He then went on to talk about how its hard to get away with not being respectful to everyone around the league today. With social media things travel fast, and Olshey understanding that makes sure that he conducts his business in a respectful manner. The point that I am trying to make is that while Portland is a small market, Olshey has made a reputation for himself as a truthful businessman who won't try to oversell his clients. I think we have a little bit more pull in free agency than people think. It's easy to assume it will be hard or impossible for us to rebuild in FA, especially after seeing somebody like Monroe passing up on us for the Bucks. But at the end of the day any Agent worth their payroll will look at Olsheys track record (especially here in Portland) and realize hes telling the truth when he says this is a good place for their client.

It's certainly a players system here in Portland, and you cannot say that about every franchise in the NBA.

 

[e_blazer]

This team doesn't have enough talent to compete with the Warriors, so while winning a few more games here or there might give us warm fuzzy feelings, losing out on the potential a lotto pick represents (for a GM that has shown he is pretty at the draft) makes me think it would be one step forward and two steps back. A tactical win and a strategic loss.

This team is in no position to win anything of significance (i.e. getting to the conference finals) as currently constructed and is realistically two to three years away if everything breaks right. Unfortunately getting to the playoffs this year probably sets that timeline back.

There's no move that Olshey can make that will make the Warriors, Spurs & Cavs worse over the next 2-3 years. I agree that the odds of even playing in a WCF during that time span are pretty long. That said, it's never a straight jump to being in the position to play at that level. Teams generally have to learn what playoff basketball is about before they can jump to the next level. Even getting bounced in 4 straight to the Warriors would have the benefit of getting the keepers on our team playoff experience. A lottery pick this season would be nice, and it's likely that will be the outcome. But no matter who we draft, it's going to be 2-3 years before they're ready to contribute much.

The way I see it, this discussion is strictly for message boards. Players worth a damn play to win. Let Olshey figure out the best path for management to take once he sees where the team is at come the trade deadline.

 

[PCmor7]

Yes. What do quotes like "making the playoffs this year would be an unmitigated disaster" and "The playoffs would be the ABSOLUTE WORST scenario we could hope for" mean to you?

I think that means one or two people, which I don't define as "many."

 

[stampedehero]

You are rightous! I am a Ravens forum member and those junkman tank all day long except for the ones like me who give the finger its rightful place up a dark spot.

 

[Charcoal Filtered]

If we win but are not doing it at the expense of giving young guys minutes, I have no problem with it.

 

[VanillaGorilla]

I think that means one or two people, which I don't define as "many."

I know 'likes' aren't everything but the comment saying it would be an unmitigated disaster has 6 likes, which I would take to mean those people agree. And I've definitely seen more than one or two people express that opinion.

 

[chzbrgr]

I want dame and the boys to go out there and play to win and I enjoy it when they succeed cause Im a fan and I love my blazers that being said making the playoffs would be disastrous for our future. We need a good draft pick. WE REALLY NEED a good draft pick. it cannot be said enough NEED NEED NEED. Its the only way for this squad to get anywhere significant in the next 5 years. development will come but the talent is simply not there to say making the playoffs would be a good experience. The important players have been already to the playoffs and got bounced in the first round last year more than anything we NEED more young talent.

 

[TBpup]

I want to win the most games possible....in the long run, not just a few meaningless wins this season. So if looking at the long term results and trying to get to the highest point is a bad thing, then I'm guilty.

What does 35-40 wins get us this year? What would 25-30 wins get us this year? How would the results of those to achievements mean to this franchise going forward since FA'cy and players forcing their way to Portland hasn't really been a stampede? Olshey has done a very solid job drafting and that is where I believe the long-term success for this franchise will come from.

It doesn't mean I'm rooting for losses but that I am willing to take a little punishment now for long term reward later. If that means we lose a few more games now but have a higher total of wins in the next 5 years, I'm all for it.

 

[Denny Crane]

The Bulls sucked hard for several years and got early lotto picks.

They drafted Eddy Curry at #4, Tyson Chandler #2, Marcus Fizer at #4, Jay Williams at #2, traded #2 LMA for #4 Tyrus Thomas.

They won 33 games, missed the playoffs and the ping pong ball gods gave the a miracle #1 and DRose. Rose won his MVP in year 3.

While making the playoffs, they drafted Noah #9 in trade for Curry, Taj Gibson #29, Jimmy Butler #30, traded two 1sts in a deep draft for #11 Doug McDermott, Bobby Portis at #22.

Draft day trade for Mirotic. Signed FA Pau Gasol for <$8M.

50 win team.

Never tanked for the lotto pick. If they did, why a Rose instead of an Eddy Curry? Rose wasn't a sure thing...

No doubt you try to win, make good picks at whatever draft position, build solid trade chips from those picks, and you can acquire good players and picks.

Just win.