Bust a Scoot?

[Denny Crane]

I have seen nothing to persuade me that Scoot is a bust. I still see enormous potential in him and expect him to be an elite player.

It's really difficult coming into a situation where he's so young and the other players are a bit older. He naturally will defer to his teammates. Plus he's playing against the best players on the planet (for the most part) for the first time.

What I saw often was an already excellent defender. Against the Bulls he kept DeRozan from getting off shots when he was guarding him. And the recent 30 point game he had is what we'll be seeing from him on a more regular basis, as he matures. I don't think it's a one off kind of thing.

When DRose was on the Bulls, he deferred to the older players, too. He wasn't as young as Scoot. Once he got his feet under him, the Bulls traded away Ben Gordon, who was stellar against the defending champion Celtics (their big 3 days) to give DRose room to dominate the ball. It's probably going to happen with Scoot at some point.

I mention DRose because I see him as Scoot's ceiling.

You can look at Coby White, who scored 42 points last night in a playin win over Atlanta. White was pick #7 in the first round, shot .394 from 2 and .354 from 3 as a rookie, averaging 13.2 and 2.7 assists. I think Scoot's stats are roughly equivalent, though Scoot had a higher scoring and assists average. Both were 19 year old rookies.

White is in his 5th season and he's still only 23. Fans talked about him as a sort of bust, not living up to expectations, and suggested he would be good to trade. It took the Bulls superstar (max contract) Zach LaVine going out with injury to give White the dominant role on offense. He's also a good defender.

At 23, Scoot is going to be better than White. Book it.

So... let it bake.

EDIT: I hate to say it, but you might want to listen to HCP. He's been around the players, and they are human beings not trading cards.

Scoot, age 19, 62 games, 28.5 MPG, .385 FG%, .325 3PT%, 3.1 TRB, 5.4APG, 14.0 PPG
(PER 36) 4TRB, 6.9APG, 1 STL, 17.7 PPG (Note DRose played 37 MPG as a rookie)

White, age 19, 65 games, 26.8 MPG, .394 FG%, .354 3PT%, 3.1 TRB, 2.7 APG, 13.2 PPG (good for 5th in ROY voting)

Rose, age 20, 81 games, 37 MPG, .475 FG%, .222 3PT%, 3.9 TRB, 6.3 APG, 16.8 PPG (ROY)

Seems like Scoot needs to improve his shooting and then he might have a better season than Rose did at 20.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Scoot certainly looked a lot better the last few games, enough to stop the panic that he'll be a bust. He won't be a bust... unless he's injury prone, which he hasn't exactly shown he isn't.
BUT: his finishing at the rim is BAD. His handle is not great. His athleticism is not elite. His turnovers and fouls are OUT OF CONTROL. Does he have the skills to be the point guard of a successful team, when you get to the point that EVERY POSSESSION MATTERS? Can he help the team if you minimize his usage to deal with the turnovers? The best thing he has going for him right now is a great attitude. It seems very unlikely that he'll just tell himself he's great and that anyone telling him he needs to change is just a hater (which is the vibe that Ben Simmons always seemed to give off).

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Yeah maybe we can trade our draft picks for an all star... Then we'd have 1 All Star. It'll be perfect!

yep. Until shae pops. Then we will have two and maybe scoot gets there as well.
Three young all stars by 25-26 would be a great turnaround. Especially with our future picks still in our pocket.
If we could move Ant/Murray and our picks this year for a young star/potential all star, id be all for it.
Ayton also has potential to make it to all star status in my opinion. So that could possibly be 4 all stars or a combo of stars/all stars within a couple years.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

yep. Until shae pops. Then we will have two and maybe scoot gets there as well.
Three young all stars by 25-26 would be a great turnaround. Especially with our future picks still in our pocket.
If we could move Ant/Murray and our picks this year for a young star/potential all star, id be all for it.
Ayton also has potential to make it to all star status in my opinion. So that could possibly be 4 all stars or a combo of stars/all stars within a couple years.

If Shae and Scoot pop, we could be looking at something like this in two years:
Scoot(star/allstar)
Shae( allstar)
Grant(star)
??? (Star/allstar for ant/murray and picks)
Ayton(star/allstar)

with Brogdon/Camara/Walker coming off the bench, all but Brogdon & Grant being under 26-27 years old and end of decade picks in our pocket to upgrade where needed.

That would be a solid rebuild in my opinion. Players have to pop though.

If we could have that within five years of Dames departure, id be happy.

I think that is a solid playoff team and we would still have assets to improve where needed to push us to contender status by 27-28.

Edit: OKC might be our next GSW though…

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

IDK? Totally different players? I love Dame and what he brought here but I don't really see a way to compare them at this point?

I agree. Scoot may have even played BETTER than Dame would have at 19 years old. We will never know.

But, that doesnt matter to some folks. Since Scoot was drafted and some folks think he would be partially to blame for Dame's departure, he will continue to be measured up with Dame for his career. Which is completely unfair.

 

[BassPlaya]

I have seen nothing to persuade me that Scoot is a bust. I still see enormous potential in him and expect him to be an elite player.

It's really difficult coming into a situation where he's so young and the other players are a bit older. He naturally will defer to his teammates. Plus he's playing against the best players on the planet (for the most part) for the first time.

What I saw often was an already excellent defender. Against the Bulls he kept DeRozan from getting off shots when he was guarding him. And the recent 30 point game he had is what we'll be seeing from him on a more regular basis, as he matures. I don't think it's a one off kind of thing.

When DRose was on the Bulls, he deferred to the older players, too. He wasn't as young as Scoot. Once he got his feet under him, the Bulls traded away Ben Gordon, who was stellar against the defending champion Celtics (their big 3 days) to give DRose room to dominate the ball. It's probably going to happen with Scoot at some point.

I mention DRose because I see him as Scoot's ceiling.

You can look at Coby White, who scored 42 points last night in a playin win over Atlanta. White was pick #7 in the first round, shot .394 from 2 and .354 from 3 as a rookie, averaging 13.2 and 2.7 assists. I think Scoot's stats are roughly equivalent, though Scoot had a higher scoring and assists average. Both were 19 year old rookies.

White is in his 5th season and he's still only 23. Fans talked about him as a sort of bust, not living up to expectations, and suggested he would be good to trade. It took the Bulls superstar (max contract) Zach LaVine going out with injury to give White the dominant role on offense. He's also a good defender.

At 23, Scoot is going to be better than White. Book it.

So... let it bake.

EDIT: I hate to say it, but you might want to listen to HCP. He's been around the players, and they are human beings not trading cards.

Scoot, age 19, 62 games, 28.5 MPG, .385 FG%, .325 3PT%, 3.1 TRB, 5.4APG, 14.0 PPG
(PER 36) 4TRB, 6.9APG, 1 STL, 17.7 PPG (Note DRose played 37 MPG as a rookie)

White, age 19, 65 games, 26.8 MPG, .394 FG%, .354 3PT%, 3.1 TRB, 2.7 APG, 13.2 PPG (good for 5th in ROY voting)

Rose, age 20, 81 games, 37 MPG, .475 FG%, .222 3PT%, 3.9 TRB, 6.3 APG, 16.8 PPG (ROY)

Seems like Scoot needs to improve his shooting and then he might have a better season than Rose did at 20.

 

[Phatguysrule]

yep. Until shae pops. Then we will have two and maybe scoot gets there as well.
Three young all stars by 25-26 would be a great turnaround. Especially with our future picks still in our pocket.
If we could move Ant/Murray and our picks this year for a young star/potential all star, id be all for it.
Ayton also has potential to make it to all star status in my opinion. So that could possibly be 4 all stars or a combo of stars/all stars within a couple years.

Yes. In the very unlikely case that both those guys make All Star games and remain healthy, yes.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Yes. In the very unlikely case that both those guys make All Star games and remain healthy, yes.

Thats your opinion that it is very unlikely. I see it more about 50/50, which i don't see any unknown draft picks having any better potential. I mean, in the very unlikely chance we luck into the number one lick next year, then yes, that may be more likely than these guys popping. Other than that, what is a more viable/likely scenario?

 

[wizenheimer]

I agree. Scoot may have even played BETTER than Dame would have at 19 years old. We will never know.

But, that doesnt matter to some folks. Since Scoot was drafted and some folks think he would be partially to blame for Dame's departure, he will continue to be measured up with Dame for his career. Which is completely unfair.

I don't know that's true. Maybe for the casual fans

but for those that pay attention I just think their styles are so different, comparing them is pointless. About the only thing they have in common is position. Dame has always been like a Curry-lite without Curry's massive roster advantages, meaning a lot more iso; and better rim-attacking skills

right now at least, Scoot is like a less athletic bull-in-a-China-shop version of Westbook...low-efficiency/high-turnovers. I'm hopeful he will evolve past that, but the trajectory is uncertain at this point

 

[THE HCP]

Scoot certainly looked a lot better the last few games, enough to stop the panic that he'll be a bust. He won't be a bust... unless he's injury prone, which he hasn't exactly shown he isn't.
BUT: his finishing at the rim is BAD. His handle is not great. His athleticism is not elite. His turnovers and fouls are OUT OF CONTROL. Does he have the skills to be the point guard of a successful team, when you get to the point that EVERY POSSESSION MATTERS? Can he help the team if you minimize his usage to deal with the turnovers? The best thing he has going for him right now is a great attitude. It seems very unlikely that he'll just tell himself he's great and that anyone telling him he needs to change is just a hater (which is the vibe that Ben Simmons always seemed to give off).

Well he’s only played like 60 games and just turned 20…. That’s not enough for me to even have a CLUE about his future. Surprised people are set either way with so little games played.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Well he’s only played like 60 games and just turned 20…. That’s not enough for me to even have a CLUE about his future. Surprised people are set either way with so little games played.

So you're saying that all scouting is useless? Hope you shared that with the scouts you hang out with.

 

[THE HCP]

right now at least, Scoot is like a less athletic bull-in-a-China-shop version of Westbook...low-efficiency/high-turnovers. I'm hopeful he will evolve past that, but the trajectory is uncertain at this point

View attachment 64461

If Scoot gets an MVP, reaches an NBA Finals and makes the HOF, I’d be pretty content with that.

 

[wizenheimer]

If Scoot gets an MVP, reaches an NBA Finals and makes the HOF, I’d be pretty content with that.

well yeah, that would be great. I don't really believe an MVP is his upside though. Aim lower

 

[Phatguysrule]

Thats your opinion that it is very unlikely. I see it more about 50/50, which i don't see any unknown draft picks having any better potential. I mean, in the very unlikely chance we luck into the number one lick next year, then yes, that may be more likely than these guys popping. Other than that, what is a more viable/likely scenario?

It's not my opinion. It's based on the historical odds of 3rd and 7th picks making the all star game. Especially after having multiple injuries in their first and second seasons.

The most likely way to get 2 or 3 all stars is to pick as high in the draft as aften as possible.

If it's a 50% chance that a top 3 pick is an all star then you will want 5 or 6 top 3 picks to make sure you have a good chance 2 or 3 all stars.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I don't know that's true. Maybe for the casual fans

but for those that pay attention I just think their styles are so different, comparing them is pointless. About the only thing they have in common is position. Dame has always been like a Curry-lite without Curry's massive roster advantages, meaning a lot more iso; and better rim-attacking skills

right now at least, Scoot is like a less athletic bull-in-a-China-shop version of Westbook...low-efficiency/high-turnovers. I'm hopeful he will evolve past that, but the trajectory is uncertain at this point

View attachment 64461

Agreed it is mostly casual fans. But I think some people here might be so hurt by losing Dame they just can't see the potential in Scoot.

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

Well he’s only played like 60 games and just turned 20…. That’s not enough for me to even have a CLUE about his future. Surprised people are set either way with so little games played.

I think Scoot bumping his fg% from 38.5 to 43% next year would have me jumping for joy. He was at like 42% for his last 10 games so I think it absolutely is doable.

 

[kjironman1]

So you're saying that all scouting is useless? Hope you shared that with the scouts you hang out with.

Maybe look at it this way? He does hang out with scouts.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

It's not my opinion. It's based on the historical odds of 3rd and 7th picks making the all star game. Especially after having multiple injuries in their first and second seasons.

The most likely way to get 2 or 3 all stars is to pick as high in the draft as aften as possible.

If it's a 50% chance that a top 3 pick is an all star then you will want 5 or 6 top 3 picks to make sure you have a good chance 2 or 3 all stars.

What percentage do you define as highly unlikely? Id say 15% or less would be considered highly unlikely.
Per the graph in your link, 3rd pick has a near 50% chance and 7th pick has about a 33% chance.

• 17 of 30 players(56.7%) have been named as All-Star for the 3rd pick.

He doesn't isolate the 7th pick, but 4th and 9th had a 33% chance:

Other than top-3 picks, there were two other spots which had double-digit number of players selected as All-Stars in the last 30 years: 4th and 9th picks with 10 All-Stars each(probability of 33.3%).

I find these odds to be better than highly unlikely or very unlikely. So it seems to be more your opinion than fact, based on the link you provided.

I suppose im more optimistic than you is all, but my optimism is supported by the link you provided.

 

[Phatguysrule]

What percentage do you define as highly unlikely? Id say 15% or less would be considered highly unlikely.
Per the graph in your link, 3rd pick has a near 50% chance and 7th pick has about a 33% chance.

• 17 of 30 players(56.7%) have been named as All-Star for the 3rd pick.

He doesn't isolate the 7th pick, but 4th and 9th had a 33% chance:

Other than top-3 picks, there were two other spots which had double-digit number of players selected as All-Stars in the last 30 years: 4th and 9th picks with 10 All-Stars each(probability of 33.3%).

I find these odds to be better than highly unlikely or very unlikely. So it seems to be more your opinion than fact, based on the link you provided.

I suppose im more optimistic than you is all, but my optimism is supported by the link you provided.

In my opinion 33% means unlikely. 57% means maybe.

.33*.57=0.1881 (18.81%)

The probability that both become All Stars is 18.81% (please correct me if I"m wrong). An 18.81% chance of something happening is highly unlikely, IMO.

 

[kjironman1]

In my opinion 33% means unlikely. 57% means maybe.

.33*.57=0.1881 (18.81%)

The odds that both become All Stars is 18.81% (please correct me if I"m wrong). An 18.81% chance of something happening is highly unlikely, IMO.

This is some otherworldly stretching but I guess we could look at it that way?

 

[Phatguysrule]

This is some otherworldly stretching but I guess we could look at it that way?

Well, the probability that both will become All Stars is obviously lower than the odds that either will, correct? By historical norms, it's not very likely that we have 2 All Stars on this roster. If we want to make tanking worth it, we have a few more years of tanking to do...

We aren't likely to have multiple future all stars on this roster for another 2 or 3 seasons, assuming we keep being bad enough to get top 5-ish picks.

 

[kjironman1]

Well, the probability that both will become All Stars is obviously lower than the odds that either will, correct? By historical norms, it's not very likely that we have 2 All Stars on this roster. If we want to make tanking worth it, we have a few more years of tanking to do...

We aren't likely to have multiple future all stars on this roster for another 2 or 3 seasons, assuming we keep being bad enough to get top 5-ish picks.

You just changed the entire metric. Multiple drafts is an entirely different thing.

 

[Phatguysrule]

You just changed the entire metric. Multiple drafts is an entirely different thing.

Hmm... Scoot and Sharpe were from multiple drafts... That's exactly what we were talking about I thought...

 

[kjironman1]

Hmm... Scoot and Sharpe were from multiple drafts... That's exactly what we were talking about I thought...

Guess maybe I’m mistaken? I thought the numbers you guys were referring too were about probability in the same draft.
My mistake.

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Hmm... Scoot and Sharpe were from multiple drafts... That's exactly what we were talking about I thought...

Guess maybe I’m mistaken? I thought the numbers you guys were referring too were about probability in the same draft.
My mistake.

im not sure why it matters if they sre in the same draft or not? The metric from the link was where in the lottery the player was drafted.

But i never said in my scenario Scoot had to be an AS. I dont think he ever neds to be an AS to be part of a contending team. Id prefer him to put up 18/10 vs 26/6. 18/10 is not AS type numbers but if Shae pops, DA takes the next step and we trade for an AS, that means three AS and two stars in the starting linup.

Ill take that.

but here is the catch. The number one pick is only about a 57% chance of becoming an all star so unless we land multiple firsts, the odds are about as good as we will get. Id rather take the 50% chance Scoot becomes an AS and 33% chance Sharpe becomes an AS
And trade picks and players for another all star.

 

[Phatguysrule]

im not sure why it matters if they sre in the same draft or not? The metric from the link was where in the lottery the player was drafted.

But i never said in my scenario Scoot had to be an AS. I dont think he ever neds to be an AS to be part of a contending team. Id prefer him to put up 18/10 vs 26/6. 18/10 is not AS type numbers but if Shae pops, DA takes the next step and we trade for an AS, that means three AS and two stars in the starting linup.

Ill take that.

but here is the catch. The number one pick is only about a 57% chance of becoming an all star so unless we land multiple firsts, the odds are about as good as we will get. Id rather take the 50% chance Scoot becomes an AS and 33% chance Sharpe becomes an AS
And trade picks and players for another all star.

I wasn't addressing your scenario. I was simply pointing out that since we already suck we should probably play the odds to get the best chance at a championship team possible. The odds of winning a championship increase the more all stars you have, especially if they compliment each other well. The odds of getting an all star increase the more opportunities you get higher in the draft.

Solid point about Ayton. He was also a high pick, but we also know he has had some problems with motivation or guidance, or something... which makes it seem less likely that he'll be an All Star caliber player.

To make tanking worth it to me, we'd need to come out with a generational talent (Lebron, Durant, Bird, MJ, Magic, Duncan, Wemby, etc.) or come out with multiple All Stars who compliment each other.

 

[wizenheimer]

Solid point about Ayton. He was also a high pick, but we also know he has had some problems with motivation or guidance, or something... which makes it seem less likely that he'll be an All Star caliber player.

in the West:

Jokic
Sabonis
KAT
AD
Gobert
Wemby
Holmgren

Sengun
Jaren Jackson

Nurkic
Zubac
Markkanen
Valanciunas

now, 2 or 3 of those guys are going to 'age-out' in the next few seasons; but several are younger than Ayton. I'm not sure Ayton is worthy of that top group or not, but I'm skeptical. He is really going to need to ratchet up his defensive game to be considered

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

I wasn't addressing your scenario. I was simply pointing out that since we already suck we should probably play the odds to get the best chance at a championship team possible. The odds of winning a championship increase the more all stars you have, especially if they compliment each other well. The odds of getting an all star increase the more opportunities you get higher in the draft.

Solid point about Ayton. He was also a high pick, but we also know he has had some problems with motivation or guidance, or something... which makes it seem less likely that he'll be an All Star caliber player.

To make tanking worth it to me, we'd need to come out with a generational talent (Lebron, Durant, Bird, MJ, Magic, Duncan, Wemby, etc.) or come out with multiple All Stars who compliment each other.

Fair enough

 

[Sheldon Shape]

 

[Portland2014]

https://www.blazersedge.com/2024/9/...-predictions-scoot-henderson-chauncey-billups

...he was the most disappointing player I saw in L.A. this summer. Despite his unreal athleticism, Henderson is a horrendous defensive player who can’t shoot and can’t finish at the rim. He’s nowhere near ready to help the Blazers win possessions. If he commits to, and succeeds in, improving his overall game, he can make a big jump playing alongside guys who know how. But there needs to be some movement towards the light. If Scoot hasn’t started making real progress by February, it’s a five-alarm fire. No team gets too far with a negative player starting at point guard.

Is he talking about THIS summer?