Natebishop3
Don't tread on me!
- Joined
- Sep 17, 2008
- Messages
- 94,169
- Likes
- 57,378
- Points
- 113
I was watching @BonesJones and @hoopsjock and they were asking their chat to explain why the current haul is better than the Miami deal. Not just the rumored deal, but the "godfather" deal.
I'm going to do that.
So, for the purposes of science, let's assume that Miami offered the absolute best deal they possibly could.
Mythical trade
Herro to a third team
Martin to the Suns as part of the Ayton trade
Jovic
Jaquez
2024 pick (they'd have to work something out with OKC)
2028 pick
2030 pick
Swaps in 2025/2027/2029
First problem, they still need to clear about $6 million to add Dame's $45.6 million, so someone else would have to go out with Herro to that third team. Maybe Robinson. Maybe Lowry. That's A LOT of players going out to keep up with the actual trade.
Second problem, this assumes that OKC is willing to change protections on their 2025 pick.
Third problem, no rumors ever truly surfaced about what kind of value Herro could actually fetch on the open market, but just for the sake of this argument, let's say it's a FRP and filler to match Herro's $27 million and Lowry or Robinson.
The Blazers end up with four picks, three swaps, Jovic, Jaquez, Ayton, Camara. MAYBE they get another young player from the four team.
Reality trade
Blazers sent out:
Dame
Nurk
Little
Keon
Blazers received:
Ayton
Brogdon
Williams
Camara
2024 Golden State pick
2029 Bucks pick
2029 Celtics pick
2028 Bucks swap
2030 Bucks swap
Malcolm Brogdon
I think Brogdon is going to be moved, but here is his resume from last season.
6'5 combo guard
2022-2023 6th man of the year
15 ppg, 3.7 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 44% from three, 18 PER, decent defender.
Robert Williams
6'9 25 year old center.
Averaged 8 ppg and 8 rebounds as well as 1.4 blocks last season in only 23 minutes per game.
Deandre Ayton
25 year old 6'11 center.
Former first overall pick.
Averaged 18 ppg, 10 rebounds, 20 PER last season.
Comparing the assets
We will take Ayton out of this because it's possible that Ayton is acquired in both scenarios.
Brogdon/Williams vs Jovic and Jaquez. Again, I think there's a very good chance that Brogdon gets moved, but if he doesn't, he's a nice backup who can play both guard positions. This isn't super helpful because we have Scoot/Sharpe/Simons. With that said, this allows Portland to move Simons at some point with a steady veteran who just won 6th man of the year. Cronin can choose between Simons and Brogdon at the deadline if he wants to move one of them. Brogdon is cheaper.
Williams is a beast if he can stay healthy. He's the perfect backup to Ayton. This would be the most depth at center this team has had in a very long time. I wouldn't be surprised if he's traded, but the reports from Woj is that we want to keep him. He's young but he has health issues.
The main point of contention is that Williams at the very least can step into the rotation right away this season. I'm not convinced that Jovic or Jaquez would have sniffed the rotation. Jovic still looks very raw and fits a similar role as Murray. Jaquez is a more immediate impact player, but at best he seems to project out as a role player. A rotation guy. That's not bad, but I'm not losing sleep over him. If Williams can stay healthy, he's better than either player and arguably better than both of them combined. Brogdon and Williams can step in and play right away. That's not the case with Jovic and Jaquez.
But, as I said, I think it's possible that Brogdon will be gone.
The draft picks
Let's stack em up and see how they compare.
So what's left? There's the potential pick that Portland would get from Herro. This one is hard to evaluate without knowing exactly what team would have gotten involved, but with there still being a strong possibility that Brogdon gets moved for a pick, and really no concrete rumors about what kind of value Herro has on the market, I'm going to say that this is a wash currently. We'll see what happens with Brogdon.
Conclusion
I believe that the actual deal that Portland made is superior to even the godfather deal that could have possibly been put on the table from Miami. The picks are better quality, Williams is better when healthy than Jovic and Jaquez, and there is still a strong chance that other assets are incoming from a move with Brogdon.
Love to hear thoughts though.
I'm going to do that.
So, for the purposes of science, let's assume that Miami offered the absolute best deal they possibly could.
Mythical trade
Herro to a third team
Martin to the Suns as part of the Ayton trade
Jovic
Jaquez
2024 pick (they'd have to work something out with OKC)
2028 pick
2030 pick
Swaps in 2025/2027/2029
First problem, they still need to clear about $6 million to add Dame's $45.6 million, so someone else would have to go out with Herro to that third team. Maybe Robinson. Maybe Lowry. That's A LOT of players going out to keep up with the actual trade.
Second problem, this assumes that OKC is willing to change protections on their 2025 pick.
Third problem, no rumors ever truly surfaced about what kind of value Herro could actually fetch on the open market, but just for the sake of this argument, let's say it's a FRP and filler to match Herro's $27 million and Lowry or Robinson.
The Blazers end up with four picks, three swaps, Jovic, Jaquez, Ayton, Camara. MAYBE they get another young player from the four team.
Reality trade
Blazers sent out:
Dame
Nurk
Little
Keon
Blazers received:
Ayton
Brogdon
Williams
Camara
2024 Golden State pick
2029 Bucks pick
2029 Celtics pick
2028 Bucks swap
2030 Bucks swap
Malcolm Brogdon
I think Brogdon is going to be moved, but here is his resume from last season.
6'5 combo guard
2022-2023 6th man of the year
15 ppg, 3.7 assists, 4.2 rebounds, 44% from three, 18 PER, decent defender.
Robert Williams
6'9 25 year old center.
Averaged 8 ppg and 8 rebounds as well as 1.4 blocks last season in only 23 minutes per game.
Deandre Ayton
25 year old 6'11 center.
Former first overall pick.
Averaged 18 ppg, 10 rebounds, 20 PER last season.
Comparing the assets
We will take Ayton out of this because it's possible that Ayton is acquired in both scenarios.
Brogdon/Williams vs Jovic and Jaquez. Again, I think there's a very good chance that Brogdon gets moved, but if he doesn't, he's a nice backup who can play both guard positions. This isn't super helpful because we have Scoot/Sharpe/Simons. With that said, this allows Portland to move Simons at some point with a steady veteran who just won 6th man of the year. Cronin can choose between Simons and Brogdon at the deadline if he wants to move one of them. Brogdon is cheaper.
Williams is a beast if he can stay healthy. He's the perfect backup to Ayton. This would be the most depth at center this team has had in a very long time. I wouldn't be surprised if he's traded, but the reports from Woj is that we want to keep him. He's young but he has health issues.
The main point of contention is that Williams at the very least can step into the rotation right away this season. I'm not convinced that Jovic or Jaquez would have sniffed the rotation. Jovic still looks very raw and fits a similar role as Murray. Jaquez is a more immediate impact player, but at best he seems to project out as a role player. A rotation guy. That's not bad, but I'm not losing sleep over him. If Williams can stay healthy, he's better than either player and arguably better than both of them combined. Brogdon and Williams can step in and play right away. That's not the case with Jovic and Jaquez.
But, as I said, I think it's possible that Brogdon will be gone.
The draft picks
Let's stack em up and see how they compare.
- 2024 GSW first vs 2024 Miami first. Maybe I'm crazy but I think there's a much better chance that the Warriors have a mediocre season in 2023-2024 than the Heat would have with Dame. I'd give the advantage to the GSW pick.
- 2029 Milwaukee pick vs 2028 Miami pick - this has been covered pretty extensively since the Dame trade broke, but the Bucks are getting older and they have no future. All their picks are spoken for. Their core is all over 30 years old with the exception of Giannis, who is almost 29. Milwaukee is not a free agent destination. I would put the odds on Milwaukee being bad in 2029 as being much much higher than Miami in 2028. The Milwaukee pick, to me, is clearly better.
- 2029 Boston pick vs 2030 Miami pick - this is a tossup. Neither pick is that great. BUT I still maintain that Miami has a better chance of staying relevant. Too many players have said that they would never go to Boston, and Jaylen Brown has already voiced some displeasure. Their core is young, but I could see them falling apart in the next six years. I'll say equal value though.
So what's left? There's the potential pick that Portland would get from Herro. This one is hard to evaluate without knowing exactly what team would have gotten involved, but with there still being a strong possibility that Brogdon gets moved for a pick, and really no concrete rumors about what kind of value Herro has on the market, I'm going to say that this is a wash currently. We'll see what happens with Brogdon.
Conclusion
I believe that the actual deal that Portland made is superior to even the godfather deal that could have possibly been put on the table from Miami. The picks are better quality, Williams is better when healthy than Jovic and Jaquez, and there is still a strong chance that other assets are incoming from a move with Brogdon.
Love to hear thoughts though.
