Contrary to Popular Belief...

[glazeduck]

THE SKY IS NOT FALLING!!!!!!!

Everyone sharpening their pitchforks and lighting their torches meant for KP need take a deep breath, put down their weapons, and commit themselves to being patient.

I'll put our situation as simply as I can... Would you prefer KP make the WRONG move today, or keep doing his due diligence (which has gotten us to where we are today) and make the RIGHT move tomorow? The timeline of course is metaphoric, but the logic is right.

The fact is, when we didn't move RLEC at the deadline, KP started a "move clock" that had exactly 1 year on it. Like it or not, our flexibility will exist until this year's deadline. I don't think anyone on the Blazers staff, or any Blazer fan for that matter is advocating for COMPLETELY standing pat (ie. not taking advantage of this cap flexibility), rather, the thought is to get this one right.

Consider the following ...We weren't going to contend for the title this year, w/ or w/out Hedo. This means that this season will be one where we learn alot about this team and these players. Things like...

-How much can GO improve?
-Can Bayless be our starting "pg"?
-Will Martell ever be able to get to full health again?
-Is Nate the right coach to take us to the top?
-Will Rudy/TO/Joel be happy coming off the bench for their entire career?
-many others...

So YES!!!!!! ABSOLUTELY we need to make a move to continue to improve this team. NOBODY ANYWHERE is saying we DON'T. But KP WILL wait until the right offer comes along.

Just keep this in mind. Cleveland, LA, San Antonio, Toronto, Orlando, Dallas, Detroit... they've ALL made moves because their championship is closing and they're making one last stab at things. We on the other hand were [essentially] the youngest team in the league, and last season we won home-court advantage playing THE MOST DIFFICULT NBA SCHEDULE IN HISTORY! Our window is just being approached. We will be fine. Life will be good. Even if KP waits until the trade deadline, we'll be adding another huge piece for the next 5 or 6 years.

So breathe in, breathe out. And lets all just agree to continue loving our Blazers!

All that said... If nothing happens through the deadline...I've got one hellova nasty pitchfork ready to get mobbin.

 

[ebott]

We'll see how it goes. But I must say I don't have a whole lot of faith. When's the last time Blazers management did something we can clearly say was the RIGHT move? I'm saying not since the 2006 draft.

Don't get me wrong. I'm happy with the team's level of success. I'm no where close to saying anybody should be fired. But seriously, we haven't made one definitively good move for three years.

The closest thing to a good move we've made was getting rid of Zach. Everything else has either gone bad or is still up in the air.

 

[rocketeer]

Consider the following ...We weren't going to contend for the title this year, w/ or w/out Hedo.

i disagree with this statement.

So YES!!!!!! ABSOLUTELY we need to make a move to continue to improve this team. NOBODY ANYWHERE is saying we DON'T. But KP WILL wait until the right offer comes along.

i also disagree with this statement. obviously, the goal is always going to be to improve the team and the blazers should be looking to improve the team in every way possible, but i disagree with the idea that the blazers need to make a move.

 

[rocketeer]

We'll see how it goes. But I must say I don't have a whole lot of faith. When's the last time Blazers management did something we can clearly say was the RIGHT move? I'm saying not since the 2006 draft.

Don't get me wrong. I'm happy with the team's level of success. I'm no where close to saying anybody should be fired. But seriously, we haven't made one definitively good move for three years.

The closest thing to a good move we've made was getting rid of Zach. Everything else has either gone bad or is still up in the air.

are you serious?

 

[glazeduck]

-Drafting, recruiting, courting and signing Rudy was a good move.
-Buying Batum was a good move.
-Trading Jarret Jack (who wanted out and needed to be out) for Jerryd Bayless, widely thought by "experts" to be a guy who could've easily gone as high as 4 was, at the VERY least a wash of a move, but WILL be a good move.

Your point is not lost, but it seems to me that what we HAVE been doing and NOT DOING for that matter, seems to be working. It's not like you can count that many specific BAD moves that they've done. They've been careful and conservative, which, with a young, developing team, is, in my opinion, the way to go.

I guess the way that I look at it is this, everyone and their dog knows that SOMETHING has to happen, so even if they have to take a stab at the next deadline, it, given the likely economic circumstances and teams ready to dump and run, WILL be at the very worst, as good as the offers we're getting now. I see ZERO point in rushing these decisions.

 

[ucatchtrout]

But KP WILL wait until the right offer comes along.

Maybe.

Or maybe the right offer has already come and gone.

I'd have bought your story based on KPs reputation until the Turkoglu fiasco. Now I'm not so sure about him.

I was never sure Turk was the right deal anyway, and a little surprised at how much we offered him. But WTF? KP is KP I figured. Then he couldn't close the deal. Looks bad glazeduck. Looks bad.

Personally I think he could have had Devin Harris at the trade deadline for RLEC, Outlaw and Bayless and he turned it down. I'd have pulled the trigger on that in a heartbeat. And I'll bet if he had the chance he'd go back and do that deal.

Letting the cake bake was a story we were all sold when the real truth was we were playing hardball and couldn't get a deal done because of that.

 

[glazeduck]

i also disagree with this statement. obviously, the goal is always going to be to improve the team and the blazers should be looking to improve the team in every way possible, but i disagree with the idea that the blazers need to make a move.

No they do. They need to do SOMETHING with that space. It's an asset and a BIG one. If they don't do SOMETHING with it, it'll be a giant mistake.

Will they still compete in the next few years? If GO, Batum and Bayless develop then yes. But something needs to be done w/ that space because we lose it once Roy and LA are extended.

 

[Minstrel]

Then he couldn't close the deal. Looks bad glazeduck. Looks bad.

It looks bad for him as a designer of cities? Didn't make Portland cosmopolitan enough?

Personally I think he could have had Devin Harris at the trade deadline for RLEC, Outlaw and Bayless and he turned it down. I'd have pulled the trigger on that in a heartbeat.

Woah! I'd have totally pulled the trigger on that imaginary deal, too!

I, personally, think he could have had Chris Paul at the trade deadline for RLEC, Outlaw, Sergio, Blake and Webster. But unfortunately he's not willing to trade his beloved players. This deal I believe he could have done and I believe he turned down shows how incompetent he is.

 

[glazeduck]

Personally I think he could have had Devin Harris at the trade deadline for RLEC, Outlaw and Bayless and he turned it down. I'd have pulled the trigger on that in a heartbeat. And I'll bet if he had the chance he'd go back and do that deal.

I PROMISE you that was not on the table.

Maybe something like Harris + us taking on Carter and/or Simmons' contracts while sending out Outlaw, Bayless, Batum, Picks, cash, RLEC, etc.

Regardless, we're a VERY attractive team to trade with. We have a TON of talent on rookie contracts, an owner w/ deep pockets and cap space. We WILL get good offers.

 

[Shooter]

Consider the following ...We weren't going to contend for the title this year, w/ or w/out Hedo.

Oh, Lord, no! We're a LONG, LONG ways from being contenders. We shouldn't expect to contend next year, or the year after that, or even the year after that. Patience, that's the word. Let's keep putting off our "contender" status indefinitely, because God knows, that's what reasonable fans do . . .

[Sarcasm off]

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

the way the 09 plan was discussed around here, it was this summer we were to cement a legacy of 10 straight rings....so yeah, in that sense, the sky is falling.

 

[rocketeer]

No they do. They need to do SOMETHING with that space. It's an asset and a BIG one. If they don't do SOMETHING with it, it'll be a giant mistake.

Will they still compete in the next few years? If GO, Batum and Bayless develop then yes. But something needs to be done w/ that space because we lose it once Roy and LA are extended.

i don't think they need to do something with the space. the space is there and is a good thing to have because it presents a lot of opportunities. if the right one comes along to improve the team, by all means, it should be done.

but if the right move doesn't come along, it's not a mistake to do nothing. the team has plenty of talent. could they be a year off from truly contending? maybe. depends on oden/bayless/batum.

 

[glazeduck]

Oh, Lord, no! We're a LONG, LONG ways from being contenders. We shouldn't expect to contend next year, or the year after that, or even the year after that. Patience, that's the word. Let's keep putting off our "contender" status indefinitely, because God knows, that's what reasonable fans do . . .

[Sarcasm off]

I disagree... We're close. But getting there and being prepared to win the title are 2 VERY different things.

We're not ready to beat Kobe or Lebron in a 7 game series. Adding Turk wouldn't change that THIS YEAR.

 

[Minstrel]

the way the 09 plan was discussed around here, it was this summer we were to cement a legacy of 10 straight rings

Stop exaggerating. It was 6 straight rings. You know that quite well.

And won't you feel silly when it happens. (Yes. Yes, you will.)

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

I wouldn't feel silly at all.

 

[Minstrel]

I wouldn't feel silly at all.

You will. Completely. Why are you lying, preemptively?

 

[glazeduck]

the way the 09 plan was discussed around here, it was this summer we were to cement a legacy of 10 straight rings....so yeah, in that sense, the sky is falling.

I get that. I understand that this is why people are freaking out. But at what age do most people learn that plans don't always go accordingly?

We hit a speedbump. We'll be fine. The car is still moving, in the right direction mind you. What I'm saying is that just because plan "A" didn't go perfectly, doesn't mean we're all of a sudden screwed or that we need to panic and simply get SOMETHING done. We still have plenty of time to be patient, burn the phone lines and make a smart, rational, well thought out decision.

The sky is not falling. I'd put it more like, our plane to greatness has been delayed. It's still taking off, we just have to wait annoyingly longer in this frustrating, boring airport, that is this thusfar static offseason, longer.

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

You will. Completely. Why are you lying, preemptively?

when we win our 6th ring with this squad, i'll buy you a hamburger.

 

[PapaG]

When's the last time Blazers management did something we can clearly say was the RIGHT move? I'm saying not since the 2006 draft.

Hmm.

Pre-2006 draft. 21 wins in cap hell with a starting line-up that would make an NBDL team sad. Post-2009 draft. 54 wins with cap room through 6/30/10 and a tie for second-best record in the West.

What are you talking about? Seriously.

 

[PapaG]

the way the 09 plan was discussed around here, it was this summer we were to cement a legacy of 10 straight rings....so yeah, in that sense, the sky is falling.

Oden was supposed to be the centerpiece of the "dynasty". Now losing an also-ran like Hedo Turkoglu means the sky is falling?

This from the guy who had an epic and all-time board meltdown when Z-ME was traded on draft night.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Personally, I think people are too hung up on the notion that we might make the "wrong" move. You can find some risk in almost any deal. Paralysis by analysis.

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

Oden was supposed to be the centerpiece of the "dynasty". Now losing an also-ran like Hedo Turkoglu means the sky is falling?

This from the guy who had an epic and all-time board meltdown when Z-ME was traded on draft night.

Oden + being able to use the cap space from the ZBO trade (which I was essentially right about, he was tradeable...granted it was for cap space but he was moveable) to secure a player to put us "over the top". That doesn't appear to be happening.


It wasn't just me, many people were disappointed in what was received...and people justified those worries with the myth of cap flexibility making us much better. If you told those people we would be turned down by Hedo Turk or whatever mystery move we're not doing or don't appear to be doing...then yeah, the melt down was totally justified because it was calling Pritch out for a BAD TRADE.

The "sky is falling" is not losing an "also-ran" like Hedo in FA...the "sky is falling" is having to resort to blowing $10 million on Hedo because everything else sucks. Its getting rejected on that Hedo trade. Its keeping an excellent trading piece in RLEC to "save money for summer 09"...which basically was met with a resounding THUD.

Summer ain't over, the cap space is still here. No one is proposing ANYTHING that makes us significantly better whatsoever. I would rather have had ZBO as a backup the last two years and then trade him for Quentin Richardson. At least we'd have some rebounding and not have to deal with Frye's game and Steve Francis' contract on our books.

 

[glazeduck]

Personally, I think people are too hung up on the notion that we might make the "wrong" move. You can find some risk in almost any deal. Paralysis by analysis.

True, however the Blazers are looking at this cap space as an opportunity. The goal is to maximize the benefit from this opportunity.

Even w/out adding anything w/ this cap space this team will compete for the next 5-8 years and may even win a ring or two, but this is a chance at greater things...

When Chicago missed out on Tim Duncan and Tracy McGrady they signed Ron Mercer to a max deal. I think it's safe to say that this wasn't maximizing their opportunity. While they certainly enjoyed SOME benefits, it's likely they could have done better. Mercer wasn't the WRONGest signing they could have made, so in that sense I suppose it wasn't the "wrong" move as you say, but it's pretty obvious that he wasn't the RIGHTest signing either, so he clearly wasn't the "right" move either. With hindsight being 20/20, it's pretty clear that that decision was more wrong and rushed than right and thought-out. All we as fans can do is demand that our front office make the best educated decisions available to them. The "wrongness" or "rightness" of those decisions can't be established until well after the fact.

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

yeah, with or without the cap space, we're going to compete. people were hyping this up for the past 2 years though. and its turned out to suck.

 

[glazeduck]

So far. But again... there's plenty of time for it to change!

I could see reactions like this coming up to the deadline, but now? Seriously? there's a good 8 months before our hands are tied.

Yes it's not as exciting. Yes it's frustrating. But summer leagues haven't even started yet, let alone camp. A wrong decision tomorow or a better deal in a few months won't have any impact on the team, yet may have a HUGE impact on our outcome.

What happens if, say... We end up w/ Hinrich and Salmons for Blake and Outlaw w/ this space. Decent improvement, but not great... UNTIL a Caron Butler, Rudy Gay, shit... the way things are going, maybe even a Devin Harris or Chris Paul goes for next to nothing at the trade deadline... Then people will want KP's head for not waiting for a better deal!

It's a guessing game. Us fans are guessing w/ MUCH less information than KP is.

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

yes. its a guessing game, which is why I said it was fucking stupid to plan for cap space 2 years from now if you aren't targeting a TOP player and there is some interest there.

 

[rocketeer]

yes. its a guessing game, which is why I said it was fucking stupid to plan for cap space 2 years from now if you aren't targeting a TOP player and there is some interest there.

what exactly are the negatives to having cap space?

 

[BTOWN_HUSTLA]

what exactly are the negatives to having cap space?

you don't know its worth until the market presents itself. also, big ticket free agents will sign for big market teams and contenders while small market teams will overpay for mediocre talent.

 

[Ed O]

what exactly are the negatives to having cap space?

The negative is that it's not necessarily worth anything.

When the Randolph trade was made, the "future cap space" argument was used as a reason for why the deal was done. Some of us have never been fans of the trade, and part of it was because of doubt of the present value (at the time) of future cap space. There were too many variables, we argued, to count "future cap space" as a valuable asset.

Time is ticking on the once-future cap space and whether it will bring the Blazers any value.

I'm not as extreme as Eric about the uselessness of future cap space, but I understand why, after a couple of years of hearing about how great it would be, he's feeling slightly (if slightly prematurely) justified in consistently questioning those who lauded it.

Ed O.

 

[glazeduck]

I have to think that it's a little tough to "target" a potential free agent 2+ years ahead of time. Alot can change in that amount of time.

The point was never to get a specific player. The point was to allow ourselves the opportunity and flexibility to add a piece or two w/out giving up much if anything...

As I've been trying to beat into peoples heads... there's still plenty of time and ample opportunity to acquire a damn good player in a salary dump. With as stacked as our team is in young talent, one move will create a small domino effect that will ultimately improve our team... Even if we simply took a player or two from a hurting team... Say James Posey, MoPete or even Julian Wright from Nawlens or a guy like Randy Foye from DC. We'd then be able to move other players to fill other slots...

WE WILL MAKE A MOVE. That I can promise you.