OT Coronavirus: America in chaos, News and Updates. One million Americans dead and counting

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
EL PRESIDENTE said:
I think a lot of companies won't be hiring back their dead weight. Shave them off the books. They won't be able to get jobs again.

The true economic impact won't hit for a few months. Once things are opening back up.

Right now there is little to no pain out there with economics. As people's savings become depleted, its going to be absolutely rough.
Click to expand...

45% of Americans have nothing in savings.
70% have less than $1,000 in savings.

There is a lot of pain out there economically and most peoples savings are already depleted, if they even had some to begin with.

That said...

Yeah. There are a TON of businesses that are finding out the hard way that a lot of their personnel could’ve been let go long ago.

One of my businesses is profit based consulting and one of the first things we suggest is cut about 50% of the workforce and move as much personnel to WFH as possible if a company culture is already established so they can eliminate office space and expenses, so I think you’re right that people will not be coming back...

I also think there’s gonna be quite a bit more office vacancies.
 
tester551 said:
How so?

The virus is not going to go away. There will be a second wave and probably a third wave. With how infectious the virus is, it will circle the globe several time over. What we're doing right now is not sustainable.

Sweden's approach is the most sensible to me. They haven't completely destroyed their economy - but are trying to take a sensible approach to minimizing spread. When I look at their numbers compared to other countries, they appear to be in the middle of the pack... which really makes me question whether this lock-down is doing any good or if we would've seen the same 'flattening of the curve' if we'd implemented Sweden's approach.
Click to expand...
Sweden's taking an interesting gamble, that herd immunity wins out and they'll be able to mostly keep going without long term ramifications. If they're right it could either mean that the factors they have helped them to "get lucky" (small population, lots of single person living situations, a lot of work at home jobs already existed) or they will have made most of the rest of the world look pretty foolish. The problem the US and many other countries will have is inevitably whenever they come back it will be there waiting for them, and immunities won't be built up.
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Me too. I think at least half of the new unemployed will be unemployed next year at this time. Even if they had important jobs, many small businesses aren't coming back and many big businesses who laid off people will have figured out how to automate those jobs (even administrative work), and or combine roles out of necessity. People can be really creative though new industries could sprout from this enabling new jobs. The longer it goes on the more likely big companies are to have figured it out without the work force too.
Click to expand...

I think these corporations are gonna find out how truly unproductive a majority of their workforce is and how much they converse and dick around while on the clock.

they were already well on their way before this hit...

80/20 rule in reverse...

20% of the workforce is responsible for 80% of the results.

Tbh I think there are some CEOs and boards that are relieved, as fucked up as that sounds.
 
JoshuaHall said:
45% of Americans have nothing in savings.
70% have less than $1,000 in savings.

There is a lot of pain out there economically and most peoples savings are already depleted, if they even had some to begin with.

That said...

Yeah. There are a TON of businesses that are finding out the hard way that a lot of their personnel could’ve been let go long ago.

One of my businesses is profit based consulting and one of the first things we suggest is cut about 50% of the workforce and move as much personnel to WFH as possible if a company culture is already established so they can eliminate office space and expenses, so I think you’re right that people will not be coming back...

I also think there’s gonna be quite a bit more office vacancies.
Click to expand...

There are a few things I've been trying to get solid data on. A.) Has the mortality rate gone up through this, and if so by how much? The CDC and most websites seem to stop having reliable data in 2019 or 2018 depending on the site, but that would tell us a lot. Also the movie line of 40,000 people die per 1% of unemployed, how true is that?
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Sweden's taking an interesting gamble, that herd immunity wins out and they'll be able to mostly keep going without long term ramifications. If they're right it could either mean that the factors they have helped them to "get lucky" (small population, lots of single person living situations, a lot of work at home jobs already existed) or they will have made most of the rest of the world look pretty foolish. The problem the US and many other countries will have is inevitably whenever they come back it will be there waiting for them, and immunities won't be built up.
Click to expand...
Exactly. And very few are talking about this very important point.

We have to establish herd immunity at some point (or develop a vaccine). The virus will not just magically go away if we isolate for a few months.
 
JoshuaHall said:
I think these corporations are gonna find out how truly unproductive a majority of their workforce is and how much they converse and dick around while on the clock.

they were already well on their way before this hit...

80/20 rule in reverse...

20% of the workforce is responsible for 80% of the results.

Tbh I think there are some CEOs and boards that are relieved, as fucked up as that sounds.
Click to expand...
It's screwed up but I think there are some big businesses especially that are totally ok with all this. Reduce their overhead, reduce their competition.
 
The thing about the Trump presidency is that it was a dumpster fire before this whole pandemic came about. The Coronavirus was basically the lighter fluid. Trump has lit the flame.

He pats himself on the back. Antagonizes protesters. Compares himself to Abe Lincoln, contradicts health professionals and uses the daily press briefings to further dig himself in a hole and try to tile up his ignorant base.

yet he still has his blind sheeple.

it’s so bizarre. I listen to right wing radio a lot during the day (honestly for shits and giggles) And even they are starting to run out of excuses for him.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
Depending on whose numbers you use anywhere from 33-50% of US agriculture labor is legal and illegal foreign labor.

That's a huge portion of that workforce to remove right before May.

Many in that workforce have already been vetted and granted work visas.

To not allow them to work is not good for our farmers and economy.
Click to expand...

Not to mention all the modern lazy AF Americans that would rather suck off the governments 3D printed Tit than be caught dead working in a field.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
Depending on whose numbers you use anywhere from 33-50% of US agriculture labor is legal and illegal foreign labor.

That's a huge portion of that workforce to remove right before May.

Many in that workforce have already been vetted and granted work visas.

To not allow them to work is not good for our farmers and economy.
Click to expand...

logic doesn't matter to trump or many of his supporters. There are already massive concerns about the food supply for the late spring, summer, and fall. But trump wants to look like he's doing something, and he wants an issue to dog and distract from his failures. This will do it for people that can't imagine the weight of unintended consequences
 
tester551 said:
See this is a perfect example.

If this is accurate and >70% of inmates (who are by definition in 'lock-down') tested positive, then how does locking down the general public do any good to stop the spread?
Click to expand...
Mitigation was never to stop anything. It was only used to slow down the spread so hospitals don’t get over-run. But with a lot of antibodies tests, you can determine “herd immunity.” That’s 50%>
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
There are a few things I've been trying to get solid data on. A.) Has the mortality rate gone up through this, and if so by how much? The CDC and most websites seem to stop having reliable data in 2019 or 2018 depending on the site, but that would tell us a lot. Also the movie line of 40,000 people die per 1% of unemployed, how true is that?
Click to expand...
There was a study in New York that associated 4% of all US deaths are from poverty. I posted it here some time back.
 
wizenheimer said:
logic doesn't matter to trump or many of his supporters. There are already massive concerns about the food supply for the late spring, summer, and fall. But trump wants to look like he's doing something, and he wants an issue to dog and distract from his failures. This will do it for people that can't imagine the weight of unintended consequences
Click to expand...
Or maybe, like this mitigation, he was told by his pandemic team to shut down migration? Funny you mention logic. It’s entirely logical for 22 million people and counting to lose their jobs to flatten the curve, but you can’t hurt the farm workers by immigration? OK
 
tester551 said:
See this is a perfect example.

If this is accurate and >70% of inmates (who are by definition in 'lock-down') tested positive, then how does locking down the general public do any good to stop the spread?
Click to expand...

Inmates are locked down together. The rest of us are locked down apart. Different situations.

barfo
 
I'm actually of two minds about the "herd immunity" thing

one is that I believe it's way too early to ease restrictions. We simply don't know enough about Covid to set any intelligent easing policies yet. And one big thing we don't know is if herd immunity will even work with this virus. There are lots of stories about people 'cleared' of the virus NOT developing a sufficient level of anti-bodies to grant them immunity. Another thing we don't know is just how long a person is infectious after symptoms disappear. And we don't know how long immunity lasts. It might be a matter of weeks instead of a matter of months, or longer

and we obviously are not able to test anywhere close to the levels we need to. All these factors, and many others, point to keeping the polices we have in place for longer than May 1

but at some point, if we don't have a vaccine till 2021 for instance, some calculated risks will have to be taken. Too many people live paycheck to paycheck, and they don't have paychecks right now. The big problem isn't 'opening' up businesses though; it's that the spending that fuels the economy isn't coming back for a long time. It might barely be a trickle for months

my wife and I are OK. We are retired, we have 3 acres; a big yard and garden. We have SS and Medicare, a pension, and savings. We can afford to continue stay-at-home and social distancing for a long time. And since we are older, and my wife is vulnerable, we will in any event. And if you're stuck, Oregon is a damn fine place to be stuck, especially in the summer. Too many people are not as fortunate and they can't afford to do what we can. I agree that current policies are unsustainable. I disagree, strongly, that now is the time to change those policies

and I'll repeat: if we relax restrictions and there's a significant increase in infections and deaths, the economy will crater even worse than it already has
 
magnifier661 said:
Or maybe, like this mitigation, he was told by his pandemic team to shut down migration? Funny you mention logic. It’s entirely logical for 22 million people and counting to lose their jobs to flatten the curve, but you can’t hurt the farm workers by immigration? OK
Click to expand...

damn right it's logical to flatten the curves because the alternative would have crashed hospitals all over the country. That's what all these lockdowns were about
 
wizenheimer said:
damn right it's logical to flatten the curves because of what the alternative would have done to hospitals all over the country. That's what all these lockdowns were about
Click to expand...
Great, you agree then. Smart move to shut down immigration. Glad we agree.
 
magnifier661 said:
Or maybe, like this mitigation, he was told by his pandemic team to shut down migration?
Click to expand...

Yeah, that's probably it.

"Please Sir, you must shut down immigration. We have close to a million cases in the US now, and Mexico has 9,000, so we can't risk anyone coming across the border."

"I deeply respect your expertise, but surely you know I care tremendously about immigrants, they are what make this country great. It would grieve me to my core to close the borders"

"No, please Sir, our models say the greatest risk is from overseas! As we've told you many times, the infections here will just magically go away when it gets warmer"

"Sigh. Ok, I'll do it, but only for the minimum amount of time necessary. And after that we'll make it up to the immigrants, in spades."

barfo
 
calvin natt said:
what false equivalency? You made a comment that you hope people can go to the dentist soon because it’s good for your health. I just said it’s way down the list and we can take a year off. Which we can. The big picture is who cares about the dentist we have a freakin pandemic going on. Things *like this* will be our undoing. I need the dentist, I need to see so and so, I need a haircut, I need to fly, I need to be in my office. I get all of it but it’s why this bitch is going to continue for longer than we want. If everyone bucked up for six months we’d be better off. Instead it’ll be two months and people will need to go do stuff and we’ll be dealing with this for many more months.
Click to expand...

I am envious of you if you are in a position financially that you have the ability to take 6 months off of work.
Even the well known Blazer broadcaster who is a member of this site couldn't have done that. He made a thread about it soon as he learned the NBA season was shut down.
I'd say if Americans really went 6 months without a paycheck. The vast majority of us would lose the ability to feed & water ourselves.
Heck I'd say 3 months the majority of Americans would lose the ability to feed & water ourselves. That's being generous also, as I have my doubts it would take that long for the basic needs to go unfulfilled.

This isn't even talking about a house payment, electricity, phone bill, car payment, sewer, student debt, etc.
Basic need of food and water would be lost.
 
barfo said:
Yeah, that's probably it.

"Please Sir, you must shut down immigration. We have close to a million cases in the US now, and Mexico has 9,000, so we can't risk anyone coming across the border."

"I deeply respect your expertise, but surely you know I care deeply about immigrants, they are what make this country great. It would grieve me deeply to close the borders"

"No, please Sir, our models say the greatest risk is from overseas! As we've told you many times, the infections here will just magically go away when it gets warmer"

"Sigh. Ok, I'll do it, but only for the minimum amount of time necessary. And after that we'll make it up to the immigrants, in spades."

barfo
Click to expand...
Yep, that must be it. The reflex resistance to everything Trump definitely validates the TDS

mags
 
TorturedBlazerFan said:
Me too. I think at least half of the new unemployed will be unemployed next year at this time. Even if they had important jobs, many small businesses aren't coming back and many big businesses who laid off people will have figured out how to automate those jobs (even administrative work), and or combine roles out of necessity. People can be really creative though new industries could sprout from this enabling new jobs. The longer it goes on the more likely big companies are to have figured it out without the work force too.
Click to expand...

Why will they be unemployed though?
Will it be because they refuse to take or do anything less than they were before they were laid off?
Or will it be because there are no actual jobs.
Big differences imo.

Pride will keep at least a portion of the currently unemployed, unemployed for lengthy periods of time.
 
It's far too early to tell if being asymptomatic means that someone is immune. It's important to understand that when discussing some of these numbers.
 
SlyPokerDog said:
It's far too early to tell if being asymptomatic means that someone is immune. It's important to understand that when discussing some of these numbers.
Click to expand...
It should not be ignored either, especially since therapeutic or vaccine therapy may not even work either. Plus, vaccines won’t be FDA approved for at least 10 more months (very optimistic timeline) and likely 3-4 months to scale it enough for mass treatment.
 
magnifier661 said:
It should not be ignored either, especially since therapeutic or vaccine therapy may not even work either. Plus, vaccines won’t be FDA approved for at least 10 more months and likely 3-4 months to scale it enough for mass treatment.
Click to expand...

Never said it should be ignored.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top