Did the Blazer roster improve, get worse, or stay about the same as last season?

[Denny Crane]

The problem I have with Meyers is, he has shown flashes of greatness. He has had a few really good games. He even had really good games in the playoffs against the tough Grizz defense. Then he goes back to his old clueless self. I’m convinced his problem is mental.

Meyers has a ton of talent, but he doesn’t apply it well for very many games. It’s like he is playing in an alternate dimension, with an occasional appearance in the NBA dimension. Or, maybe the game is just too fast for him. Not sure what his mental problem is, and if it is fixable?

Maybe he needs regular minutes.

 

[Minstrel]

That's an awful lot of writing just to call me a dumbass.

If I thought you were a dumbass, I'd just come right out and call you a SlyPokerDog.

Miles Plumlee - $12.5M
Kosta Koufos - $8M
Tyler Zeller - $8M
Cole Aldrich - $7.6M

I think Leonard's playing contributions are pretty comparable to those guys. Aldrich accepted a bit of a lowball offer last summer because he wanted to play for the TWolves. I'd say that Meyers' $9.2 this season is right in the ballpark. Maybe a million high, but not enough to matter.

I don't agree with this at all. I won't go through each of them, I'll just pick Aldrich, since he's the lowest-paid on this list.

Let's look at a few metrics and compare and contrast messieurs Aldrich and Leonard.

On the broader, court impact level, we can look at Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, to get a sense for how they impact the offensive and defensive ends of the court. 105 is generally average for these ratings, bigger is better for ORtg, lower is better for DRtg.

ORtg-Aldrich, past four seasons (this season included): 120, 104, 113, 125
ORtg-Leonard, past four seasons (this season included): 104, 117, 107, 98

DRtg-Aldrich, past four seasons (this season included): 100, 102, 94, 105
DRtg-Leonard, past four seasons (this season included): 105, 102, 109, 114

Leonard had, by far, his best season by these metrics three years ago when he had his "breakout." He shot the ball well and defended well in limited minutes and shot attempts. Pretty good for age 22. But it's been downhill since then. Last year, given more (but not way more) opportunity, his offensive production plummeted (though still above average) and his defense began to crater. This season, the roof has completely caved in--he's got the offensive impact of a defensive specialist, except he's a terrible defender too. That's why I said that he's currently not even a legitimate NBA player--you can't be simultaneously a terrible defender and terrible on offense and have a role on an NBA team.

Meanwhile, Aldrich has bounced around a bit. On offense, he's bounced between average and way above average and on defense, between average and well below average. You wouldn't count on him to be a great player, considering how variable he is, but he's going to play at least average offense and at least average defense and often give you more than that. He's significantly underpaid, but he's the kind of guy you give $10M to cheerfully and it's money well-spent.

We can look at more component-based numbers too, rather than such broad metrics (feel free to skip past to the written conclusions if your eyes glaze over at the glut of numbers):

TS% (scoring efficiency)-Aldrich: .620, .513, .626, .552
TS%-Leonard: .489, .631, .561, .497

Rebound Rate (based on rebound opportunities)-Aldrich: 23.0, 20.0, 19.6, 17.6
Rebound Rate-Leonard: 16.8, 15.8, 12.8, 10.8

Assist Rate (percentage of teammate buckets assisted)-Aldrich: 6.4, 13.3, 10.0, 6.1
Assist Rate-Leonard: 7.3, 5.8, 10.6, 6.5

Block Rate (percentage of opponent shots blocked while on floor)-Aldrich: 8.1, 5.5, 6.7, 4.2
Block Rate-Leonard: 1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 2.0

Steal Rate (same as above but for steals)-Aldrich: 1.3, 2.0, 2.9, 2.5
Steal Rate-Leonard: 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3

PER (the infamous!)-Aldrich: 19.1, 18.1, 21.3, 14.4
PER-Leonard: 9.4, 14.8, 11.3, 7.9

This doesn't really change the picture at all. The scoring efficiency and rebound rate also tell the same story of Leonard's game deteriorating over time. His assist rate is more of a random walk and his block and steal rates are basically too low to meaningfully get worse. Aldrich is substantially better in virtually all ways except for Assist Rate (where they're basically even, apart from one year).

All of this statistical stuff has some uncertainty, but when it's all pointing the same way, it's relatively stark to me: Leonard looked good in a short-minutes breakout two seasons ago, but not only has failed to sustain that performance, he's actually lost ground year by year. He's now two years older and in the midst of performance that doesn't resemble NBA-caliber performance.

Here's one more stat, not an advanced one and just for Leonard:

3P% (last three seasons, current season included): .420, .377, .333

That set of numbers might be the best illustration of all. Leonard's single basketball skill is shooting the three-pointer. That is literally the only thing he's ever done well in the NBA. In his breakout year, he shot 42% from three, which is pretty exciting from a big. Last year, he shot 37.7%, which is still something though a bit less thrilling when it's stapled to a package of nothing else. This year he's shooting 33%. That's below average. His one skill is shooting three-pointers and he's below average at it.

I really don't think you can compare him to Aldrich or any of the other players on that list. This is why I consider Leonard's extension far and away Olshey's worst decision. $10M for a player who's never been good, bet on himself and got worse and is now not even playing at NBA levels is just off-the-charts bad. Sure, $10M alone isn't going to destroy the payroll, but $10M for literally nothing is taking on a pretty significant franchise handicap.

 

[e_blazer]

If I thought you were a dumbass, I'd just come right out and call you a SlyPokerDog.



I don't agree with this at all. I won't go through each of them, I'll just pick Aldrich, since he's the lowest-paid on this list.

Let's look at a few metrics and compare and contrast messieurs Aldrich and Leonard.

On the broader, court impact level, we can look at Offensive Rating and Defensive Rating, to get a sense for how they impact the offensive and defensive ends of the court. 105 is generally average for these ratings, bigger is better for ORtg, lower is better for DRtg.

ORtg-Aldrich, past four seasons (this season included): 120, 104, 113, 125
ORtg-Leonard, past four seasons (this season included): 104, 117, 107, 98

DRtg-Aldrich, past four seasons (this season included): 100, 102, 94, 105
DRtg-Leonard, past four seasons (this season included): 105, 102, 109, 114

Leonard had, by far, his best season by these metrics three years ago when he had his "breakout." He shot the ball well and defended well in limited minutes and shot attempts. Pretty good for age 22. But it's been downhill since then. Last year, given more (but not way more) opportunity, his offensive production plummeted (though still above average) and his defense began to crater. This season, the roof has completely caved in--he's got the offensive impact of a defensive specialist, except he's a terrible defender too. That's why I said that he's currently not even a legitimate NBA player--you can't be simultaneously a terrible defender and terrible on offense and have a role on an NBA team.

Meanwhile, Aldrich has bounced around a bit. On offense, he's bounced between average and way above average and on defense, between average and well below average. You wouldn't count on him to be a great player, considering how variable he is, but he's going to play at least average offense and at least average defense and often give you more than that. He's significantly underpaid, but he's the kind of guy you give $10M to cheerfully and it's money well-spent.

We can look at more component-based numbers too, rather than such broad metrics (feel free to skip past to the written conclusions if your eyes glaze over at the glut of numbers):

TS% (scoring efficiency)-Aldrich: .620, .513, .626, .552
TS%-Leonard: .489, .631, .561, .497

Rebound Rate (based on rebound opportunities)-Aldrich: 23.0, 20.0, 19.6, 17.6
Rebound Rate-Leonard: 16.8, 15.8, 12.8, 10.8

Assist Rate (percentage of teammate buckets assisted)-Aldrich: 6.4, 13.3, 10.0, 6.1
Assist Rate-Leonard: 7.3, 5.8, 10.6, 6.5

Block Rate (percentage of opponent shots blocked while on floor)-Aldrich: 8.1, 5.5, 6.7, 4.2
Block Rate-Leonard: 1.0, 1.2, 1.1, 2.0

Steal Rate (same as above but for steals)-Aldrich: 1.3, 2.0, 2.9, 2.5
Steal Rate-Leonard: 1.0, 0.6, 0.3, 0.3

PER (the infamous!)-Aldrich: 19.1, 18.1, 21.3, 14.4
PER-Leonard: 9.4, 14.8, 11.3, 7.9

This doesn't really change the picture at all. The scoring efficiency and rebound rate also tell the same story of Leonard's game deteriorating over time. His assist rate is more of a random walk and his block and steal rates are basically too low to meaningfully get worse. Aldrich is substantially better in virtually all ways except for Assist Rate (where they're basically even, apart from one year).

All of this statistical stuff has some uncertainty, but when it's all pointing the same way, it's relatively stark to me: Leonard looked good in a short-minutes breakout two seasons ago, but not only has failed to sustain that performance, he's actually lost ground year by year. He's now two years older and in the midst of performance that doesn't resemble NBA-caliber performance.

Here's one more stat, not an advanced one and just for Leonard:

3P% (last three seasons, current season included): .420, .377, .333

That set of numbers might be the best illustration of all. Leonard's single basketball skill is shooting the three-pointer. That is literally the only thing he's ever done well in the NBA. In his breakout year, he shot 42% from three, which is pretty exciting from a big. Last year, he shot 37.7%, which is still something though a bit less thrilling when it's stapled to a package of nothing else. This year he's shooting 33%. That's below average. His one skill is shooting three-pointers and he's below average at it.

I really don't think you can compare him to Aldrich or any of the other players on that list. This is why I consider Leonard's extension far and away Olshey's worst decision. $10M for a player who's never been good, bet on himself and got worse and is now not even playing at NBA levels is just off-the-charts bad. Sure, $10M alone isn't going to destroy the payroll, but $10M for literally nothing is taking on a pretty significant franchise handicap.

First of all, I think that you have to give Meyers a bit of slack this season due to him coming back from shoulder surgery. That likely explains his reduced shooting accuracy this year. I'd be willing to bet that he pulls his 3P% back up to last year's rate by the end of the season.

Second, using Aldrich as a comparison is cherry picking. The guys are used completely differently by their teams. Aldrich plays a true center position while Meyers is used as a stretch 4. Of course his scoring efficiency, blocks and rebounding stats aren't going to compare with Aldrich's.

None of the guys on that list play the same kind of role as Meyers, but his minutes played, points scored and total rebounds compare with their production.

And thank you for not calling me a SlyPokerDog. Those are fighting words.

 

[Strenuus]

The Blazers didn't get much worse they just didn't get much better. While a lot of the other teams in the West got a lot better. This is what mediocre teams get when they have too many untouchables.

I know you tried to fit it into your agenda - but this literally made no sense.

 

[Minstrel]

Second, using Aldrich as a comparison is cherry picking. The guys are used completely differently by their teams. Aldrich plays a true center position while Meyers is used as a stretch 4. Of course his scoring efficiency, blocks and rebounding stats aren't going to compare with Aldrich's.

I literally picked the guy who was paid the least on your list. It had nothing to do with cherry-picking. I didn't go through every player on your list because it takes a while to type in all those numbers and we probably didn't need a post longer than every other post on this forum, combined. You tell me the NBA player you think Leonard compares best with and we can compare them.

Also, why on Earth would scoring efficiency be decreased by Leonard playing stretch four while Aldrich plays center? Shooting three-pointers isn't supposed to reduce your scoring efficiency--they're harder to hit but they count for more points. For players who shoot threes well, shooting them is supposed to increase their efficiency. Leonard just isn't shooting them well. And it's not just this season that his scoring efficiency suffers compared to Aldrich.

There's a reason that I included Offensive and Defensive Rating--it just measures overall effect on offense and defense. Even if you don't think Leonard should be getting blocked shots (and he should--the whole reason why being big and able to shoot is valuable is because they can stretch defenses on offense and still play like big men on defense), he should still be having a positive effect on defense (and offense) if he's going to be as valuable as Aldrich.

 

[e_blazer]

I literally picked the guy who was paid the least on your list. It had nothing to do with cherry-picking. I didn't go through every player on your list because it takes a while to type in all those numbers and we probably didn't need a post longer than every other post on this forum, combined. You tell me the NBA player you think Leonard compares best with and we can compare them.

Also, why on Earth would scoring efficiency be decreased by Leonard playing stretch four while Aldrich plays center? Shooting three-pointers isn't supposed to reduce your scoring efficiency--they're harder to hit but they count for more points. For players who shoot threes well, shooting them is supposed to increase their efficiency. Leonard just isn't shooting them well. And it's not just this season that his scoring efficiency suffers compared to Aldrich.

There's a reason that I included Offensive and Defensive Rating--it just measures overall effect on offense and defense. Even if you don't think Leonard should be getting blocked shots (and he should--the whole reason why being big and able to shoot is valuable is because they can stretch defenses on offense and still play like big men on defense), he should still be having a positive effect on defense (and offense) if he's going to be as valuable as Aldrich.

I plead guilty to complaining about Aldrich without looking at his stats. Oops. He pretty much sucks, at least from a pure production standpoint.

Why would Leonard's scoring efficiency be impacted more by the way he's used than Cole's? Because guys do go into major shooting slumps from distance while the same is not true of low post scorers. Leonard was injured last season and he's coming back from surgery this year. Your "advanced stats" are nifty and all, but they sometimes are a case of not seeing the forest for the trees. There's a reason for Meyers' decline in scoring efficiency yet the numbers aren't interested in reasons.

I'm certainly not trying to say that Meyers is producing the way he needs to on either end of the court. He needs to play better, period. I am saying, however, that his salary is not out of line when compared to the absolute production of big guys making similar money.

 

[Minstrel]

Why would Leonard's scoring efficiency be impacted more by the way he's used than Cole's? Because guys do go into major shooting slumps from distance while the same is not true of low post scorers. Leonard was injured last season and he's coming back from surgery this year. Your "advanced stats" are nifty and all, but they sometimes are a case of not seeing the forest for the trees. There's a reason for Meyers' decline in scoring efficiency yet the numbers aren't interested in reasons.

Is his shoulder surgery also the reason for all of his other numbers cratering over the past two years? It's not just his scoring efficiency. He's a poor rebounder too, relative to the number of rebounding opportunities available (that's why I used Rebound Rate, rather than raw rebounds--it's playing-time agnostic and it accounts for how many chances there were to rebound; a team that misses fewer shots and prompts fewer misses from the opposing team will have fewer chances to rebound the ball), his defensive numbers have gone down the past two years.

I agree that stats aren't the be-all and end-all, but the eye test hardly contradicts them, in my opinion. Sure, we can make allowances for returning from a surgery, but that doesn't really explain regressing everywhere in his game (from an already poor base of skills).

We can re-visit this at the end of the season, if you like, and in future seasons. Anything's possible, but what I see is a player who never had a broad base of skills to start with and has regressed over time. That isn't worth anything close to $10M a year. Hopefully Olshey correctly sees big upgrades to his game in the future.

 

[WillG]

I believe we are missing Hendos vet 'leadership by example' this year.
Just watching the guy, you could see he brought it 100% everytime he was on the court and was an absolute professional. . .

Would've been a much better signing than Crabbe. . .

 

[riverman]

Henderson was very vocal on defense....ET is more reserved...trying to fit it...AC is too mellow period..we need that dog barking off the bench

 

[Strenuus]

Henderson was very vocal on defense....ET is more reserved...trying to fit it...AC is too mellow period..we need that dog barking off the bench

Don't give sly any hope he can actually be a part of the team.

 

[WillG]

Henderson was very vocal on defense....ET is more reserved...trying to fit it...AC is too mellow period..we need that dog barking off the bench

ET should steadily improve as he gets acclimated to the team, and more specifically, to the way we are reffed in the NBA (compared to other teams).
Fully agree that AC is too mellow. And yeah, Hendo definitely demanded pride in their play. . .

 

[riverman]

Don't give sly any hope he can actually be a part of the team.

He pissed on Lamarcus' tires enough to send him packing.....that's some serious pull!

 

[riverman]

ET should steadily improve as he gets acclimated to the team, and more specifically, to the way we are reffed in the NBA (compared to other teams).
Fully agree that AC is too mellow. And yeah, Hendo definitely demanded pride in their play. . .

I like Turner...he doesn't get rattled even when he's obviously struggled to get in a flow in this system...he came here from a pretty good team in Boston...I know he can be a game changer if he settles in.....I just still need to see a bona fide identity from the core.

 

[LicketyBrindle]

I think were just as good as last year and/or just as bad as last year. Looks like the other side of the coin to me. The good news is that this was thought to be a pretty serious rebuild when we set out. On the floor and in the standings we're probably where we're supposed to be. Bad news is on the balance we literally added no talent. Turner and Henderson are hardly worth splitting hairs about as players. I'd rather be paying Henderson whatever he's making if it's less than $17 million. All the other contracts speak for themselves.

 

[Chris Craig]

So far this year, the Blazers are no better than last year, and perhaps a bit worse due to player regression and a lapse in team chemistry. Last year it actually felt as though the Blazers had a deep roster, with numerous players who could step up on any given night. Looking at the roster this year, we don't seem to have that same depth.

Cliff Alexander VS Jake Layman:Alexander seemed to be a big man with potential to become somebody in the NBA, but alas he remained buried at the bottom of the roster for all but a couple games, and never had the chance to show his stuff. Layman, a second rounder, with little expectations on him, has shown glimpses of talent as well in his short stints on the court. He had one of the more memorable debut performances hitting 5 threes and finishing with 17 points ( behind only Dame for most points in a debut game for the blazers) Maybe he has something to offer, but maybe like Alexander he won't get much of a chance.

Tim Fraizer/Brian Roberts VS Shabazz Napier:

Both Frazier and Roberts bring something to the game, and to the roster that Napier does not. They are pass first guards who facilitate a flowing offense, where as Napier is a shoot first guard, who is a bit selfish, clogs the lane, stalls the flow of the offense, and turns the ball over a bit too much. Neil was hoping Napier could become a solid back up, he definately has potential, but maybe we didn't get one over on Orlando this time.

Gerald Henderson VS Evan Turner:

The interesting thing about this pair is that both struggled to start the season. Henderson mostly because he was coming back from hip surgery. Turner has had a hard time getting used to the Blazers system. He has been playing better of late, but the jury is still out on if he can be the same 6th man presence that Henderson was. Henderson's presence was no doubt a big part of the Blazers second half of the season run to make the playoffs.

Chris Kaman VS Festus Ezeli

No doubt if Ezeli were healthy there would not be much of a comparison. Yet, his knees, as in the case of the many other big men, who the Blazers hoped would pan out, have gone to pasture. Kaman, though played sparingly, was the down and dirty guy that didn't take shit from anyone, and made sure no one got away with messing with the guys. The Blazers don't really have anyone quite like that this year.

Luis Montero VS Tim Quarterman

Montero provided versatity, in that he could play three positions, an aspect Neil Olshey coveted. Yet, Montero never quite found a place in the rotation, and rode the end of the bench out the door. Tim Quarterman like Montero is versatile at 6'6 he is a tall guard, with moderate passing skills, and some potential on the defensive end because of his size. Yet, offensively he is lacking. He and Montero are really both the same thing when it comes down to it, a 15th man.

Damian Lillard: Dame has improved on getting to and finishing at the basket, and because of that, despite the intense pressures of opponent defense, he has improved from last year.

CJ McCollum: CJ has definately improved from last year. He is more confident and has built a stride in his offensive game. Creating his own shot is taking is game to the next level.

Mason Plumlee: Mase is the closest to that Kaman/Pryzbilla type player that doesn't take crap from anybody. He has improved slightly on offense, and is a hell of a passer for a big man, probably one of the best on the team. Defensively he does the little things, provides that extra energy. Work on the rebounds Mase.

Meyers Leonard: One of the biggest disappointments on the team. He's had five years and has yet to develop into much of a player, and in fact has regressed from last year after returning from shoulder surgery. He has the potential to be hell of a big man, but seems to be to weak minded to make the jump.

Ed Davis: Ed has also regressed. Though in his defense he played a lot more last year. This season his numbers and minutes are dismal. I hope he rebounds (get it) in the second half of the season and gets back to his regular energetic self.

Al Farouq Aminu: Aminu hasn't really been able to get it going this season. Last season he was a force, yet lacked the prestige from three point land, to have taken so many. This year after getting injured and being out a handful of games, he is just getting back into rhythm. Moving to power foward may have affected his game for the worse, hopefully not. Watch this guy in the second half of the season.

Moe Harkless: Perhaps the most versatile player on the team, a steal from Orlando, Harkless has become the bottled energy the Blazers need, and he does a bit of everything including, rebounding, stealing, three pointers, fast break frenzy. No wonder he is a starter.

Allen Crabbe: Underperforming since locking up that 40+mill deal, if he doesn't pick it up soon ( he has been playing a little better lately) he maybe shipped off at the deadline. He is playing below par from last year.

Pat Connaughton: A waste of a roster space. He wasn't good to begin with and I don't expect him to improve. He can't really get much worse then he already is. He should have stuck with baseball. Hopefully we can hide him in a trade.

Noah Vonleh: Dude has got mad potential. He needs to develop more, but he has what it takes to become a top shelf PF in this league. I just hope he doesn't become our next Jermaine O'neal.

 

[Minstrel]

Henderson was very vocal on defense....ET is more reserved...trying to fit it...AC is too mellow period..we need that dog barking off the bench

Imagine if Ezeli had been healthy. We know that he's willing to bark at the team!

 

[Mediocre Man]

I say got worse.

Only because we had several players on a contract year, last year. This year, they have their money, so no need to overachieve

 

[oldfisherman]

I just wanted to complement everyone that contributed to this thread, lots of great posts.

I am amazed at how close everyone rates the talent level of our players. Sure there are some slight differences, but the range is much smaller than I anticipated.

The major disagreement appears to be how much each player should be paid, not how much they can and should contribute to the team.

It is also obvious that this roster is underachieving. Let’s hope they improve their team chemistry, and win a higher % of the games the rest of the season.