Doomsday scenarios this offseason

[Draco]

What is a feasible free agent scenario you would hate to see play out.

Mine is Blazers come to an agreement to sign Greg Monroe for the max. They think they'll be able to work out a sign and trade for Batum. Meanwhile LaMarcus is undecided; but Rolo, Wes and Afflalo can't be offered deals until a sign and trade or LaMarcus contract is decided on. So feeling they are not getting the attention they deserve Rolo, Wes and Afflalo accept offers with other teams. Eventually LaMarcus decides to just sign with the Spurs. The Blazers decide not do do a sign and trade with Detroit and just sign Monroe to the previously agreed deal for cap space. Kaman is cut for cap space. All the major free agents sign with other teams so the Blazers use their remaining cap space to bring in Marco Bellineli and sign Kosta Koufous. Ed Davis is signed for the room exception. The opening day roster is

Koufous/ Meyers
Monroe / Ed Davis
Batum / Crabbe
Bellineli/ CJ
Dame / Blake / Frazier

Back to the lottery!

 

[SlyPokerDog]

The Spurs are not in the mix for LMA. They would have to gut their team to make him an offer.

LMA to the Spurs is not feasible.

 

[julius]

If LaMarcus goes to the Spurs, it won't just be him signing with them.

They have too much to get rid of to sign him to a decent contract, and if they get rid of those players, they're a much worse team.

Home is one thing, money and competing for a title is another.

The best way for the Spurs to get LaMarcus AND still be a competitive team is to engineer a sign and trade. The problem? They don't have shit to trade.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

My doomsday scenario is all of the Blazers decide to become French citizens. They spend their entire summer playing for Team France and come back banged up and playing shitty for the next NBA season.

 

[riverman]

Doomsday scenario..my biggest fear, we bring back Raymond Felton and Greg Oden

 

[santeesioux]

Paul Allen decides to move the team to Seattle!

 

[riverman]

Paul Allen decides to move the team to Seattle!

Or Kansas

 

[Denny Crane]

Unsigned FAs are still a huge cap hold. You can't defer signing LMA to create cap space to sign someone else.

 

[barfo]

Or France.

barfo

 

[julius]

Unsigned FAs are still a huge cap hold. You can't defer signing LMA to create cap space to sign someone else.

I think that's a fact that many fans seem to forget (esp when they're convinced LaMarcus is going to San Antonio or Dallas).

 

[riverman]

I'd actually be surprised if Lamarcus decides to sign in the western conference again if it's not Portland. In the east he'd be 1st team everything and would go deep in the playoffs every year on the right team..Cavs, Bulls, etc..if he ended up on the Lakers, that would be doomsday

 

[Natebishop3]

I guess the worst case scenario for me would be:

LA leaves without any compensation.
Sign Wes to a large deal and then not have him ever really return to form.
Rolo leaves without any compensation.
Waste cap space on some shitty free agent consolation prize.

 

[PDXFonz]

Batum stays and the forum freaks the F out every time he turns the ball over... oh wait.


I guess LA leaving then.

 

[cmeese47]

First of all anyone who thinks LA to the Spurs is not an option is a moron. Trading either Splitter or Diaw would open up enough money for them to easily sign LA or Gasol if any of them wished to sign there.

But overall not adding any gritty players to this soft team and bringing back the same old core imo would be the worst case.

 

[magnifier661]

First of all anyone who thinks LA to the Spurs is not an option is a moron. Trading either Splitter or Diaw would open up enough money for them to easily sign LA or Gasol if any of them wished to sign there.

But overall not adding any gritty players to this soft team and bringing back the same old core imo would be the worst case.

Trading splitter for cap space? Since when? This is the time where teams can sign good players for a cheap multi year before the mega cap comes in. No one is giving up their space this summer

 

[SlyPokerDog]

First of all anyone who thinks LA to the Spurs is not an option is a moron. Trading either Splitter or Diaw would open up enough money for them to easily sign LA or Gasol if any of them wished to sign there.

If you ask Blazer fans where they think LaMarcus Aldridge is going to end up next season, a lot of them would probably say San Antonio. One report a while back listed the Spurs as the most likely choice.


But that's a lot easier said than done. The Spurs have some free agents of their own they want to keep. And some other players making a lot of money. It's a complicated mess trying to figure out what the Spurs can do in an offer for Aldridge, but "Pounding the Rock," a reputable Spurs' fan site, took on the project and found it's possible. Kind of. You should go there and read the entire piece but here's a couple of summaries:

I've crunched the numbers, and I have good news and bad news.

The good news is yes, it is theoretically possible.

The bad news is that it is so unlikely and would take so many convoluted steps to make it happen, that it is EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. Like, less than one percent unlikely.

Also, and this can't be stressed enough: I'm not even sure if the Spurs would be a better team even if they pulled it off.

And...

Aldridge is fun to daydream about, but it's never been remotely realistic for the upcoming season and it doesn't make much sense, if the goal is to win. The Spurs would have no bench with him for a year and wouldn't be much better than the Blazers team he's supposedly leaving once Duncan and Ginobili retire. It's better for the Spurs to play this straight, make a couple of quality under-the-radar signings and to wait until 2016, and the bigger salary cap, to explore the market.​

The way I figure it, if they re-sign everyone but Leonard and Green to one-year deals, and those two combine to make something like $27 million in 2016, then the Spurs would have around $26 million to work with next season, once they renounce everyone's cap holds. It'd be $33 million if they decline Diaw's option. Maybe the best-case scenario is for them to hope that Aldridge opts in for one more season in Portland.

http://www.csnnw.com/blazers/really-its-less-one-percent-likely-spurs-can-land-aldridge

 

[OneLifeToLive]

First of all anyone who thinks LA to the Spurs is not an option is a moron. Trading either Splitter or Diaw would open up enough money for them to easily sign LA or Gasol if any of them wished to sign there.

But overall not adding any gritty players to this soft team and bringing back the same old core imo would be the worst case.

Cmeese saw the word 'Doomsday' and said hmmmm there's my cue!

Seriously though, I believe you are right. Splitter I think will get it done. But I'm not about to call anyone a moron.

 

[OneLifeToLive]

Paul Allen decides to move the team to Seattle!

It does make me wonder at times if it pisses him off at times that he can't make a big splash in free agency and his Seahawks don't seem to struggle with this.

 

[Draco]

Spurs can easily trade Splitter to the 6ers or another team by giving up a crappy draft pick. Then they have cap space to sign Aldridge and bring back everyone else.

 

[julius]

First of all anyone who thinks LA to the Spurs is not an option is a moron. Trading either Splitter or Diaw would open up enough money for them to easily sign LA or Gasol if any of them wished to sign there.

But overall not adding any gritty players to this soft team and bringing back the same old core imo would be the worst case.

They could only do that IF they didn't get any contracts back. And I really doubt that there are teams out there who will take back almost 32 million in guaranteed money for nothing, especially considering the age and talent levels of the two players.

And on top of that, they have to re-sign Leonard first too. His cap hit still counts, especially if he is given an offer by another team (and signs the offer sheet).

IF they somehow conned a team into taking those two w/out receiving anything in return, and resign Leonard (I think his contract would be about 5 million. he'd have to sign an extension, I think) , they'd have somewhere around 33-34 million dedicated salary. And that's NOT counting cap holds of Duncan, Ginobli, Green, Belinelli, Ayers, Bonner and 3 others.

So you're suggesting they trade 2 players (and 32+ million) for nothing in return, sign Leonard, and LaMarcus and hope they don't have to renounce 4 or 5 players in the process (one being Duncan, since his cap hold is huge)?

Yeah, I guess that's possible. Not probable though.

 

[julius]

Spurs can easily trade Splitter to the 6ers or another team by giving up a crappy draft pick. Then they have cap space to sign Aldridge and bring back everyone else.

Why would the 76ers do that?

Why would any team take either of those players (Diaw or Splitter), even with a late 1st round pick?

Teams with cap space don't normally take players on who are well past their prime or have years left on their deal.

Btw, if you look at the 76ers salary roster on hoopshype, they have something like 30 players listed.

 

[Draco]

Why would the 76ers do that?

Why would any team take either of those players (Diaw or Splitter), even with a late 1st round pick?

Teams with cap space don't normally take players on who are well past their prime or have years left on their deal.

Btw, if you look at the 76ers salary roster on hoopshype, they have something like 30 players listed.

Teams do that all the time. Utah did it two summers ago taking Biedrins and Richard Jefferson so the Warriors could sign Iggy. 6ers did it at the trade deadline acquiring Jamall McGee $13 million dollar contract. Splitter was great in the playoffs last year and will have value when healthy so he would be an asset for those teams. It makes sense for Spurs to ditch him when they can sign an even better asset. 6ers won't sign veterans with cap space they want draft picks or assets such as Splitter they can possibly trade for more at a later time.

 

[julius]

Teams do that all the time. Utah did it two summers ago taking Biedrins and Richard Jefferson so the Warriors could sign Iggy. 6ers did it at the trade deadline acquiring Jamall McGee $13 million dollar contract. Splitter was great in the playoffs last year and will have value when healthy so he would be an asset for those teams. It makes sense for Spurs to ditch him when they can sign an even better asset. 6ers won't sign veterans with cap space they want draft picks or assets such as Splitter they can possibly trade for more at a later time.

for starters, that was part of a larger set of deals, and Utah took back a few picks too (and sent out a player). I also believe that the contracts for Jefferson and Biedrins (along with Brandon Rush) were ending contracts.

Of which Diaw and Splitter aren't.

Here's the trade, for those curious:

July 10, 2013: As part of a 3-team trade, (Jefferson) traded by the Golden State Warriors with Andris Biedrins, Brandon Rush, a 2014 1st round draft pick, a 2016 2nd round draft pick, a 2017 1st round draft pick and a 2017 2nd round draft pick to the Utah Jazz;

the Denver Nuggets traded Andre Iguodala to the Golden State Warriors;

the Denver Nuggets traded cash and a 2018 2nd round draft pick to the Utah Jazz;


the Golden State Warriors traded a 2018 2nd round draft pick to the Denver Nuggets;

the Utah Jazz traded Randy Foye to the Denver Nuggets; and the Utah Jazz traded Kevin Murphy to the Golden State Warriors.


Utah took back two 1st round picks and 3 second round picks too.

 

[magnifier661]

Why would the 76ers do that?

Why would any team take either of those players (Diaw or Splitter), even with a late 1st round pick?

Teams with cap space don't normally take players on who are well past their prime or have years left on their deal.

Btw, if you look at the 76ers salary roster on hoopshype, they have something like 30 players listed.

Exactly the point I was trying to make as well. There is absolutely zero incentive for a rebuild team to bring in contracts like splitter or diaw. It makes absolutely zero sense.

This is the bargain year. The year where teams can find a young player and sign them multi year before the big contracts come in. No team is going to give up cap space this summer unless they are bringing a player of substantial potential or in the middle of their prime.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Doomsday scenario: LA, Wes, AA, RoLo and Freeland all leave without compensation. Batum demands trade.

 

[julius]

Doomsday scenario: LA, Wes, AA, RoLo and Freeland all leave without compensation. Batum demands trade.

And then Damian demands a trade.

 

[kjironman1]

Some on here were talking about a cap hold being a big hit. In this case they should try to get players signed before Aldridge. People ask why does the cap hold continue to hit against the teams salary?
"It closes a loophole. Teams otherwise would be able to sign other teams' free agents using their cap room, and then turn their attention to their own free agents using the Bird exception. This rule restricts their ability to do that. It uses the player's current status (type of free agent, whether coming off a rookie contract, and previous salary) as a rough guideline to predict the amount the player is likely to receive in his next contract, and sets that amount aside in the form of a cap hold. But while it functions as a rough guideline, it's obviously not perfect -- for example, in 2005 Michael Redd's free agent amount was just $6 million, even though the Bucks intended to re-sign him for the maximum salary. By waiting to sign Redd last, the Bucks were able to take advantage of the difference by signing Bobby Simmons. Had they signed Redd first, they would not have had enough cap room to sign Simmons."
Source...http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q40

 

[julius]

I think there's a difference in re-signing your own FA's (Wesley, Rolo, Afflalo and LaMarcus) and signing other teams FA's using your "cap space" (in relation to cap holds, etc).

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

And then Damian demands a trade.

AND then BDSF94 gives up on life.

 

[kjironman1]

Somebody please explain why the Blazers owe Diante Garrett a million bucks?