Doomsday scenarios this offseason

[magnifier661]

This is another question altogether. What if the Blazers don't want to give Aldridge a Max? .....I know I know...That is just not a possibility right?

If the Blazers don't want to give max, then they should just renounce him all together. He will be a Max free agent if we decide or someone else does.

 

[magnifier661]

And honestly i am not trying to create an argument with you Maggs. But what if Aldridge doesn't want to go with the full 5 year? Lots of different scenarios and we know exactly nothing about what he truly wants. You already know a 1 year deal gets him way more money with a much higher risk in the long run.
But it is way more money. Maybe a 1 year sign and trade?

I'm not getting a vibe you are trying to argue with me bro. I'm just discussing here.

And the "What if Aldridge wants to sign a 1 year deal?" Yes, he can sign a multi-year (5 year deal with a player option after the first year). That would be the best way for him to get the most money possible. It will also give the Blazers 1 more year to prove we can build a winner. If things go south, we could trade him to the team of his choosing so he keeps his bird rights... Hmmm, maybe or maybe not, I haven't checked the CBA facts regarding trading a player that is a Bird player but has a team option

 

[magnifier661]

How about all the people calling for Batum to be traded? What kind of impact does that have? Don't know yet do we?
You also have to consider Lillards Max extension next year right?

The thing about trading Batum could mean a "Draft Day Trade". As I already pointed out on another thread, we could make a deal for Hibbert (he has a opt out, but the bird rights are transferred) so we can resign him to a multi-year deal. This scenario would allow us to resign everyone else and use a MLE on another vet player.

 

[Denny Crane]

And honestly i am not trying to create an argument with you Maggs. But what if Aldridge doesn't want to go with the full 5 year? Lots of different scenarios and we know exactly nothing about what he truly wants. You already know a 1 year deal gets him way more money with a much higher risk in the long run.
But it is way more money. Maybe a 1 year sign and trade?

Why not sign a 5 year deal with a player option after 1st year?

 

[Blazinaway]

Why not sign a 5 year deal with a player option after 1st year?

I will check but I do not believe you can sign a five yr deal and have a player option after 1 yr

Update: I did check and he cannot sign a 5 yr deal with a player or ETO option after ONE year, it (the player or ETO) has to be at THE END of the contract - below is a good link

http://midlevelexceptional.com/2014/07/17/difference-early-termination-options-player-options/

 

[Denny Crane]

OK
2 years, ETO

EDIT

but from your link:

 

[kjironman1]

All these scenarios would be better met sooner than later.

Why? I assume this is your opinion also and i can respect that. But it is not up to the Blazers completely. Maybe LA wants to see what they will do? Maybe the best scenario is to let him see what they are willing to do to keep him? He can do this any way he wants. It seems as though you feel that the best scenario is for you to feel comfortable that what you want will happen. Again... My opinion is that he and the Blazers will work out what is best for the team and the organization and they will not be put on any time line whatsoever. Yes Quick and Canzano will have their field day so they can cover every possible scenario and say "They said this would happen" in the end. But in the end it makes absolutely no difference if they sign him first or last.

 

[kjironman1]

I'm not getting a vibe you are trying to argue with me bro. I'm just discussing here.

And the "What if Aldridge wants to sign a 1 year deal?" Yes, he can sign a multi-year (5 year deal with a player option after the first year). That would be the best way for him to get the most money possible. It will also give the Blazers 1 more year to prove we can build a winner. If things go south, we could trade him to the team of his choosing so he keeps his bird rights... Hmmm, maybe or maybe not, I haven't checked the CBA facts regarding trading a player that is a Bird player but has a team option

You know that is one i didn't think about. But it could work. Puts pressure on the Blazers to continue to do everything they can to get to a championship.

 

[magnifier661]

Why? I assume this is your opinion also and i can respect that. But it is not up to the Blazers completely. Maybe LA wants to see what they will do? Maybe the best scenario is to let him see what they are willing to do to keep him? He can do this any way he wants. It seems as though you feel that the best scenario is for you to feel comfortable that what you want will happen. Again... My opinion is that he and the Blazers will work out what is best for the team and the organization and they will not be put on any time line whatsoever. Yes Quick and Canzano will have their field day so they can cover every possible scenario and say "They said this would happen" in the end. But in the end it makes absolutely no difference if they sign him first or last.

I thought Aldridge mentioned that the decision will be right out the gate. Something to the sort "I won't waste any time"

 

[kjironman1]

The thing about trading Batum could mean a "Draft Day Trade". As I already pointed out on another thread, we could make a deal for Hibbert (he has a opt out, but the bird rights are transferred) so we can resign him to a multi-year deal. This scenario would allow us to resign everyone else and use a MLE on another vet player.

In am not in the "Trade Batum" camp. I am however wanting to see him play better or get a player that will. Crazy but i think we will see a giant improvement because of the contract coming up. Hibbert would be the kind of player that would make me consider it?

 

[kjironman1]

Why not sign a 5 year deal with a player option after 1st year?

Has to be at least 3 years? I better check?

So yes after looking at you next post. Looks like he must do at least a 3 year with 2 option?

 

[kjironman1]

I thought Aldridge mentioned that the decision will be right out the gate. Something to the sort "I won't waste any time"

To be honest this is the first lengthy comment thread i have had on it because i put so much into the pregames all season that i take a break at the end. I should go back and read some of the stories. I am lacking on quotes and some of the options.

 

[kjironman1]

OK
2 years, ETO

EDIT

but from your link:

View attachment 5160

Denny do you read that as he can only have one year (The last) as a player option?
If he does this he can still ask for a no trade clause right?

 

[Draco]

Player or team options can only be on the last year of the contract.

Hibbert cannot be traded on draft day unless he locks in his contract for next season first so he doesn't become a free agent.

 

[Draco]

You see what i am saying. This very thread is about "Doomsday scenarios". Signing Aldridge IMHO is not a problem in my book. Waiting makes absolutely no difference. There are other options that need to be looked at. I like LA as much as anyone else but finding the right team is what makes the most sense here. This is business.
The problem with this very premise is that most all of the questions are from a couple of idiots that wrote some stupid paragraphs during the playoffs. Now a bunch of people think they are fact.
If Aldridge stays great. He will make a lot of money and the Blazers will be fine. If Aldridge is involved with a sign and trade then He will make a lot of money and the Blazers will be fine. If he simply leaves he will make a little less but still a lot of money and the Blazers will still be just fine.
The Blazers will work out their deals and make the one they feel is best for the organization/team.
I will also bet because they will wait for at least until the rest of the team is in order those same two idiots will be all over the media spouting off and coming up with every possible scenario that could go wrong baiting as many clicks as possible. Bank on it!

If you think the Blazers will be just fine with Aldridge leaving the team for nothing you don't assign much value to Aldridge. Many of us value him much higher than that.

Edit: also Aldridge can only make the most money resigning in Portland. He would make less if he leaves as a free agent. If he is involved in a sign and trade he can only make the same as if he left as a free agent. This was changed in the 2011 lockout.

 

[tester551]

If you think the Blazers will be just fine with Aldridge leaving the team for nothing you don't assign much value to Aldridge. Many of us value him much higher than that.

Edit: also Aldridge can only make the most money resigning in Portland. He would make less if he leaves as a free agent. If he is involved in a sign and trade he can only make the same as if he left as a free agent. This was changed in the 2011 lockout.

Mostly true, but not entirely true.... Due to the exploding cap next year, I expect LMA to sign a 2 year deal with an opt out the second year. The 1st year salaries are identical no mater where he plays. The difference is when he signs a contract in '16, whom ever holds his bird rights (Portland right now) can offer him the most money. Portland can do a S&T with LMA to another team so that they have the bird rights to sign him to a 5-year max deal in '16.

 

[Draco]

Mostly true, but not entirely true.... Due to the exploding cap next year, I expect LMA to sign a 2 year deal with an opt out the second year. The 1st year salaries are identical no mater where he plays. The difference is when he signs a contract in '16, whom ever holds his bird rights (Portland right now) can offer him the most money. Portland can do a S&T with LMA to another team so that they have the bird rights to sign him to a 5-year max deal in '16.

Possibly; we will see. Remember LaMarcus never got the max rookie extension all these other players have had and he's seen devastating injuries to Roy, Oden, Wes. He's had injuries cost him significant time of most his seasons too; and while they are minor it's definitely a risk. I just don't see him turning down the chance to have a $100+ million contract guaranteed. If he waits until next summer the cap will go up again; will he want to plan on waiting two summers? But that second year there is a threat of a lockout which could cost him money if he isn't locked into a contract.

 

[BonesJones]

Yes bro i do get it very well. 120/150/190 and if they want the can renounce. That is what you see and that is what you are saying.
The Blazers will wait to sign Aldridge. Not going to try to make you understand why. I have put two very clear links up already. Read them.

I know I've read it before... And it agrees with what I'm saying..

 

[magnifier661]

Possibly; we will see. Remember LaMarcus never got the max rookie extension all these other players have had and he's seen devastating injuries to Roy, Oden, Wes. He's had injuries cost him significant time of most his seasons too; and while they are minor it's definitely a risk. I just don't see him turning down the chance to have a $100+ million contract guaranteed. If he waits until next summer the cap will go up again; will he want to plan on waiting two summers? But that second year there is a threat of a lockout which could cost him money if he isn't locked into a contract.

See I take Aldridge for a pretty humble dude. I think he would be totally fine signing a 5 year max deal and be fine with it. He can feel accomplished that he can finish his career in Portland and be the best Blazer of All-time statistically. I am 90% sure this is how things unfold. I expect him to sign the July 1st (maybe its 9th for the waiting period?) because I think he understands how waiting can really fuck up the deals Portland makes this summer.

 

[Schilly]

I know I've read it before... And it agrees with what I'm saying..

I've read it several times. You get it I get it, but for some reason other dude is applying some weird logic to it that isn't supported by the facts.

 

[Draco]

See I take Aldridge for a pretty humble dude. I think he would be totally fine signing a 5 year max deal and be fine with it. He can feel accomplished that he can finish his career in Portland and be the best Blazer of All-time statistically. I am 90% sure this is how things unfold. I expect him to sign the July 1st (maybe its 9th for the waiting period?) because I think he understands how waiting can really fuck up the deals Portland makes this summer.

Yeah I agree that's what I think happens. I think he wants to give Mom and babbies mom a chance to voice their input and double check all the scenarios one final time with his agent so that's why he seemed more noncommittal the last half of this season. Watching his exit interview is totally different then how Quick/Canzano portray him. He specifically said nothing's changed from his thoughts about resigning he had a year ago.

 

[Schilly]

So, Lamarcus is a Larry Bird Rights free agent not coming off a rookie contract and his contract was larger than the average salary in the NBA. This means his cap hold is 150% of the $16.25 he made this season.... 150% of $16.25 is larger than the max contract he can receive. The Side not #2 basically says the cap hold can neither be less than the minimum a player can make... Nor more than the max they can make, well duh that's not exactly an earth shattering revelation there.

Where this does matter is if the Blazers were to convince him to sign for less than Max, then that figure would count against the cap instead of his Max hold. If you are singing players to less than their holds it is in the best interest to sign them early to potentially have some extra wiggle room.

 

[Schilly]

A better example would be Robin Lopez. Robin made about $6.1 mill last year his cap hold is $9.15 mil, but he could be signed to a max of about $16 mil. In that case the hold is more beneficial to the team during free agency than the actual contract if it is larger than the hold.

 

[magnifier661]

So, Lamarcus is a Larry Bird Rights free agent not coming off a rookie contract and his contract was larger than the average salary in the NBA. This means his cap hold is 150% of the $16.25 he made this season.... 150% of $16.25 is larger than the max contract he can receive. The Side not #2 basically says the cap hold can neither be less than the minimum a player can make... Nor more than the max they can make, well duh that's not exactly an earth shattering revelation there.

Where this does matter is if the Blazers were to convince him to sign for less than Max, then that figure would count against the cap instead of his Max hold. If you are singing players to less than their holds it is in the best interest to sign them early to potentially have some extra wiggle room.

That's why I don't see the Blazerswaiting at all. They put the max offer on the table unless Aldridge and his agent agrees to take less. Either way, you do both immediately so other free agents will more likely sign with the club. I could see Aldridge be upfront with the team if he wants to leave. He seems like a really straight shooter and he wouldn't put his team in a position twiddling their thumbs waiting for him to make his announcement like LBJ or Howard.

 

[kjironman1]

I've read it several times. You get it I get it, but for some reason other dude is applying some weird logic to it that isn't supported by the facts.

My weird logic that isn't supported by facts is an opinion. Never said anything that he was saying is wrong. What i am suggesting is an opinion that is simply that. AN OPINION! Figure it out.
He is totally correct that the cap hold will be 150% until he signs or is renounced but what i am saying is that it simply does not matter if they sign him first. It also does not matter if they decide to get him to wait. The Blazers have the cap room to do this any way they want to do it but even more specifically they can give Aldridge any option he wants as well. Leave or stay they have plenty of options here. I am of the OPINION they will wait and make sure they have the team they want. There is absolutely no need to hurry no matter what Quick or Canzano want to write. Or what you guys feel is most important.

 

[Schilly]

Some on here were talking about a cap hold being a big hit. In this case they should try to get players signed before Aldridge because his hold is only the amount of his existing salary.

Ok I must have misread this, and failed to see where you realized you were wrong.

 

[kjironman1]

Ok I must have misread this, and failed to see where you realized you were wrong.

I made reference to that statement being incorrect already. Maybe it would be better if i go back and change the wording. That statement is wrong.

 

[Schilly]

I made reference to that statement being incorrect already. Maybe it would be better if i go back and change the wording. That statement is wrong.

Fair enough

 

[kjironman1]

Ok I must have misread this, and failed to see where you realized you were wrong.

There you go brother. It's all changed for you now. I hope that makes you guys get what i was saying a little better. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Draco]

My weird logic that isn't supported by facts is an opinion. Never said anything that he was saying is wrong. What i am suggesting is an opinion that is simply that. AN OPINION! Figure it out.
He is totally correct that the cap hold will be 150% until he signs or is renounced but what i am saying is that it simply does not matter if they sign him first. It also does not matter if they decide to get him to wait. The Blazers have the cap room to do this any way they want to do it but even more specifically they can give Aldridge any option he wants as well. Leave or stay they have plenty of options here. I am of the OPINION they will wait and make sure they have the team they want. There is absolutely no need to hurry no matter what Quick or Canzano want to write. Or what you guys feel is most important.

There is a need to hurry because once a free agent agrees to a deal he's off the market. You can end up in a game of musical chairs with a bunch of teams that have cap room and nobody great to spend it on. The Blazers need to decide if they will operate above or below the cap. Bring back LMA you can sign everyone else with bird rights. Aldridge leaves the team uses cap room. Maybe Portlands #1 and #2 replacement alternatives for Aldridge agree to deals on day 2 so the team misses out on those players not having a yes or no from Aldridge.

Last year the Lakers thought they might get Melo and in the meantime all the good free agents left so they got stuck with Jeremy Lin and Carlos Boozer. Houston was waiting to sign Bosh thinking they had him and ignored other free agents. Well he goes back to Miami and the Rockets are in a panick overpaying Ariza, losing Parsons. Free agency can be very fluid where moves are like a big line of dominos so if you don't know what way the first domino will fall you have no idea how to setup the other pieces.