regarding the Duck D:
the defense gave up a 47.4% conversion 3rd down rate to their opponents last season on 13.3 attempts. that was 124th out of 131. In 2019, when Oregon went 12-2 and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl, the D gave up a conversion rate of 33.2% on 15.7 attempts/game. Notice how a better 3rd down defense forces more 3rd downs?
going from nearly a 50% conversion rate all the way down to a 33% rate is probably too big an ask. But it would seem 35-37% is possible. On 14 attempts.game that would be going from giving up about 7 conversions to 5 conversions. How many fewer yards and fewer points would 2 fewer 1st downs yield? At 5.5 yards/play, that could be around 35 fewer yards a game; and close to 3 fewer points. Two of the Duck losses last season were by 3 points.
Not only that, getting those two extra stops would give the Duck offense more time on the field and more possessions. Oregon was 6th in the nation in offense last year, only 25 yards/game behind the leader. They could have led the nation in offense and been top-3 in scoring with a couple of extra possessions a game
even with all of their 3rd down problems, the Duck D wasn't as bad as many are making out. They were 71st in to total defense giving up 382 yards a game. Subtract that 35 yards from their 3rd down issue and the Ducks would have given up 345 yards/game, good enough for 35th. Oregon actually ranked 22nd in red zone defense last season giving up a 76.9% scoring rate. A little less stellar in the red zone TD rate ranking 54th. But the total defense and the red zone defense shows the Ducks were at least average in defense, maybe even solid, but for that major flaw on 3rd downs. Correct that and the Ducks are a different team
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I would agree that there wasn't much of a generic talent upgrade on defense. Maybe a little. But there is no doubt that Lanning is processing players and getting players he thinks fits his systems. Think about SEC defenses; what makes them different? It's simply the power of the defensive lines. They don't get overmatched physically and they have excellent depth. with that in mind, look what Lanning is doing on the DLine. First there are the returning players:
Brandon Dorlus (DE 290)
Jake Shipley (DE 267)
Bradyn Swinson (edge 233)
Treven Ma'ae (DL 272)
Sir Mells (T 315)
Ben Roberts (T 311)
Casey Rogers (T 290)
Taki Taimani (T 315)
Maceal Afaese (DL 260)
Popo Aumavae (T 305)
Sua'ava Poti (DL 285)
Keyon Ware-Hudson (T 285)
then there are the DL recruits:
Matayo Uiagalelei (edge 265)
Johnny Bowens (DL 265)
My'Keil Gardner (DL 275)
Teitum Tuioti (edge 225)
Tevita Pome'e (T 315)
A'mauri Washington (T 295)
Blake Purchase (edge 240)
Terrance Green (edge/T 265)
Ashton Porter (edge/T 255)
Jaeden Moore (edge 230)
Jordan Burch (transfer edge 275)
in case you are keeping track, that's 23 'scholarship' DLinemen, out of 85 total scholarships. Now, I think that a few of these guys will transfer in the spring, likely at least 3 or 4, maybe even 5 (from what I've heard). I think you will also start to hear about players (and this will be at a lot of schools) who don't have scholarships but are receiving enough NIL to cover the costs of school. Kind of like walk-ons with full pockets. perfectly legal in the age of NIL
in any event, I think just the DLine numbers on the current roster, and the recruits, tells you clearly what Lanning thinks is the priority, and how he intends to solve that 3rd down issue
(
by the way, at last count the Ducks had 92 (+/- 1) players on scholarship, and they are definitely hoping to add Nycholes Harbor and Roderick Pleasant; probably a long shot to land both)