I’d love to have a genius on here go back the past 10 drafts and look at the TOP 5 and see if this stands up. Did those 50 players get thrown in the fire from the start and how were their contributions? My uneducated, yet very aware view is that the vast majority did NOT. That might be what this scout WANTS to happen, but not sure how much it does.
well first, you'd have to delete the actual busts....which Scoot is not at this point. So you won't have a 50 player sample. Now, I don't know how this will work out so I'll do it in real time
2015:
5 - Mario Hezoonja = bust
4 - Porzingis - started every game his first two seasons - contributed; fits profile (1/1)
3 - Jahlil Okafor = bust (
started 81 of 103 games first 2 seasons)
2 - D'Angelo Russell - started 108 of 143 game 1st 2 seasons - contributed; fits profile (2/2)
1 - KAT - started every game for 10 years - contributed; fits profile (3/3)
2016:
5 - Kris Dunn = bust for #5 (
career back-up) still in league - doesn't fit profile (3/4)
4 - Dragan Bender = bust
3 - Jaylen Brown - started every game 2nd season; avg 6.6 pts as rookie - contributed; fits profile (4/5)
2 - Brandon Ingram - started 99-138 games in 1st 2 seasons - contributed; fits profile (5/6)
1 - Ben Simmons - started 160 of 160 games; ROY - contributed; fits profile (6/7)
2017:
5 - De'Aaron Fox - started 142 of 154 games - contributed; fits profile (7/8)
4 - Josh Jackson = bust
3 - Jayson Tatum - nuff said - contributed; fits profile (8/9)
2 - Lonzo Ball - started 95 of 99 games - bust by injury - but, contributed; fits profile (9/10) ?- this one debatable
1 - Markelle Fultz - bust
2018:
5- Trae Young - started every game in 7 seasons - contributed; fits profile (10/11)
4 - Jaren Jackson Jr. - started every game - contributed; fits profile (11/12)
3- Luca Doncic - nuff said - contributed; fits profile (12/13)
2 - Marvin Bagley = bust
1 - Deandre Ayton - yuck - contributed; fits profile (13/14)
2019:
5 - Darius Garland - started 109 of 113 games - contributed; fits profile (14/15)
4 - De'Andre Hunter - started 81 of 86 games - contributed; fits profile (15/16)
3 - RJ Barrett - started every game 1st two seasons - contributed; fits profile (16-17)
2 - Ja Morant - nuff said - contributed; fits profile (17/18)
1 - Zion Williamson - bust because of injury? - but, contributed; fits profile (18/19)
2020:
5 - Isaac Okoro - stated 128 of 134 games, but a statistical bust for #5 - doesn't fit profile (18/20)
4 - Patrick Williams - started 80 of 87 games, , but a statistical bust for #4 - doesn't fit profile (18/21)
3 - LaMelo Ball - started every game - contributed; fits profile (19/22)
2 - James Wiseman = bust
1 - Anthony Edwards - started every game - contributed; fits profile (20/23)
2021:
5 - Jalen Suggs - started 64 of 103 games - has become full time starter - not worth #5, barely - doesn't fit profile? (20/24)
4 - Scottie Barnes - started every game - contributed; fits profile (21/25)
3 - Evan Mobley - started every game - contributed; fits profile (22/26)
2 - Jalen Green - started every game - contributed; fits profile (23/27)
1 - Cade Cunnigham - started every game - contributed; fits profile (24/28)
2022:
5 - Jaden Ivy - started 134 of 151 games - contributed; fits profile (25/29)
4 - Keegam Murray - started 155 of 157 games - contributed; fits profile (26/30)
3 - Jabari Smith - started every game - contributed; fits profile (27/31)
2 - Chet Holmgren - started every game - contributed; fits profile (28/32)
1 - Paolo Banchero - started every game - contributed; fits profile (29/33)
2023:
5 - Ausar Thompson - started 50 or 86 games - doesn't really fit profile, (29/34)
4 - Amen Thompson - mostly has come off the bench, but contributed; fits profile (30/35)
3 - Scoot Henderson - started 39 of 100 games - doesn't fit profile (30/36)
2 - Brandon Miller - started every game - contributed; fits profile (31/37)
1 - Wemby - nuff said - contributed; fits profile (32/38)
so, 45 players. 7 were actual busts. 32 of the remaining 38 fit the suggested profile of the scouts you are dismissing. Of those 32 players who fit the profile, just about all of them were "
thrown in the fire" by starting most or all games. And of the 5, along with Scoot, who doesn't really fit the profile, two, Okoro and Williams started 94% of their games. And of the 3 remaining besides Scoot, Kris Dunn, Jalen Suggs, and Aussar Thompson, there may be a range of upside for a gauge
I'm not really sure if being a starter is a complete gauge:
Jalen Suggs - started 64 of 103 - 62%
Ausar Thompson - 50 of 86 - 58%
Scoot Henderson - 39 of 100 - 39%
Kris Dunn - 50 of 130 - 38%
but Scoot has averaged 28 minutes which seems like quite a bit of fire to me
I think the scouts are right and you're wrong about the expectations for a top-5 pick and the higher expectations for a top-3 pick. Scoot has been a disappointment compared to his pre-draft hype and the expectations attached to a 3rd pick. But I sure don't think he's a bust at this point. More of a project which usually is a term reserved for big men. I still see significant upside for Scoot. But I also see the obstacles in his way that might keep him from meeting that upside
it's also not like every pick is a Tatum or a KAT. Scoot may very well end up better than a lot of the top-5 picks who were opening night starters