Eating Crow about Scoot (1 Viewer)

[blazerfan11]

I think there is a little too much focus on the couple of categories of shooting Scoot has an advantage, 3ptFG and FT. Understandable seeing as it's a Blazer forum, but it's a little forest-thru-the-trees vision

FG%: Amen .562....Scoot .468
2ptFG%: Amen .614....Scoot .478
eFG%: Amen .580....Scoot .500
TS%: Amen .613....Scoot .548
FG% at rim: Amen .757....Scoot .564
FG% in 3-10' zone: Amen .500....Scoot .333

(Amen takes 82% of his shots in the 0-10' zone; Scoot takes 45%)

PER: Amen 18.7....Scoot 13.0

I think it's worth noting that while Scoot shoots a higher percentage on FT's. Amen converts 2.8 FTA's a game vs Scoot at 2.5, and he does so while attempting fewer FG's. That's due to a higher FT rate which is understandable as he takes a big majority of his shots in the paint. So far this season, Amen has drawn 84 shooting fouls and converted 15 And1's. Scoot has drawn 52 shooting fouls and converted 7 And1's

to be fair, Amen has played 3 more games and 250 more minutes

I really like Scoot's progression but he's got a lot of ground to make up on Amen, and Amen has been progressing faster

They play different positions and expectations are different for those positions.

The stats you quote might compare favorably to almost all point guards in the league.

As a point guard, which Amen called himself before the draft, he's got some issues.

Do you see progress in Amen's three-point shooting? How is he going to be a primary scorer with very little mid-range or long-range game?

If that isn't expected of Amen, we're talking about a high-level role player.

 

[Natebishop3]

They play different positions and expectations are different for those positions.

The stats you quote might compare favorably to almost all point guards in the league.

As a point guard, which Amen called himself before the draft, he's got some issues.

Do you see progress in Amen's three-point shooting? How is he going to be a primary scorer with very little mid-range or long-range game?

If that isn't expected of Amen, we're talking about a high-level role player.

And if your game is predicated on 80% of your shots coming within 10 feet of the hoop, that's extremely easy for teams to scheme for..... unless your name is Shaq.

 

[AldoTrapani]

Wow the hype with Amen latley is crazy

 

[wizenheimer]

Thank you for proving my point. 82% of his shots are within 0-10' of the hoop. So just foul his non-shooting ass. A guy like Shai is also not a three point shooter, BUT HE MAKES HI FREE THROWS. 90% free throw shooter. My whole point was that in the playoffs, which the Rockets will presumably make this year, he's gonna get fouled a lot. If he can't make his shots, his value decreases SIGNIFICANTLY.

this isn't hack-a-Shaq territory. You're really exaggerating how bad a FT shooter he is and really really exaggerating how willing teams will be to put a 70% shooter on the line while getting in the penalty sooner

he's making 70% of his FT's and attempting 4 a game. Making 2.8 a game. If he was making 80% he'd be converting 3.2 a game. He'd need 2.5 games to make one more FT than he currently is. The league average is 78% by the way

selected players and their FT%

Bam Adebayo .726
Jarrett Allen .726
Toumani Camara .716
Kevin Huerter .714
Wendell Carter Jr. .712
Santi Aldama .707
Alperen Şengün .703
Daniel Gafford .701
CJ McCollum .701
Terance Mann .700
Caris LeVert .699
Amen Thompson .695
Cody Martin .694
Brandon Clarke .686
Rudy Gobert .681
RJ Barrett .670
Kyle Anderson .667
Dwight Powell .667
Zach Edey .662
Jonathan Isaac .658
Isaiah Hartenstein .648
Paolo Banchero .646
Russell Westbrook .639
Jonathan Kuminga .639
Dereck Lively II .638

Bam Adebayo attempts 4.1 FT's a game. Amen 4.0. Bam converts 3.0; Amen converts 2.8. Over a 5 game stretch Bam would only score 1 more point from the FT line than Amen. Teams aren't going hack the shit out of Bam; and they aren't going hack the shit out of Banchero, for instance, who happens to shoot much worse than Amen from the line. The nature of the hacking percentages just aren't as good as you imagine

now obviously if any of those 3 players is close to the basket with an easy shot, teams might foul. And that might especially be true of Amen because he is absolutely an elite shooter in the paint

FG% at rim: Amen .757....Banchero .710....Adebayo .704 (Lebron .756...Giannis .756...Tatum .706...Jokic .685)
FG% in 3-10' zone: Amen .500...Adebayo .417...Banchero .273 (Lebron .511...Giannis .413...Tatum .422...Jokic .586)

the reality seems to be that every opponent knows Amen attacks the paint and the hoop. But they can't stop him from getting there, and when he does get there he has elite efficiency.

 

[AldoTrapani]

this isn't hack-a-Shaq territory. You're really exaggerating how bad a FT shooter he is and really really exaggerating how willing teams will be to put a 70% shooter on the line while getting in the penalty sooner

he's making 70% of his FT's and attempting 4 a game. Making 2.8 a game. If he was making 80% he'd be converting 3.2 a game. He'd need 2.5 games to make one more FT than he currently is. The league average is 78% by the way

selected players and their FT%

Bam Adebayo .726
Jarrett Allen .726
Toumani Camara .716
Kevin Huerter .714
Wendell Carter Jr. .712
Santi Aldama .707
Alperen Şengün .703
Daniel Gafford .701
CJ McCollum .701
Terance Mann .700
Caris LeVert .699
Amen Thompson .695
Cody Martin .694
Brandon Clarke .686
Rudy Gobert .681
RJ Barrett .670
Kyle Anderson .667
Dwight Powell .667
Zach Edey .662
Jonathan Isaac .658
Isaiah Hartenstein .648
Paolo Banchero .646
Russell Westbrook .639
Jonathan Kuminga .639
Dereck Lively II .638

Bam Adebayo attempts 4.1 FT's a game. Amen 4.0. Bam converts 3.0; Amen converts 2.8. Over a 5 game stretch Bam would only score 1 more point from the FT line than Amen. Teams aren't going hack the shit out of Bam; and they aren't going hack the shit out of Banchero, for instance, who happens to shoot much worse than Amen from the line. The nature of the hacking percentages just aren't as good as you imagine

now obviously if any of those 3 players is close to the basket with an easy shot, teams might foul. And that might especially be true of Amen because he is absolutely an elite shooter in the paint

FG% at rim: Amen .757....Banchero .710....Adebayo .704 (Lebron .756...Giannis .756...Tatum .706...Jokic .685)
FG% in 3-10' zone: Amen .500...Adebayo .417...Banchero .273 (Lebron .511...Giannis .413...Tatum .422...Jokic .586)

the reality seems to be that every opponent knows Amen attacks the paint and the hoop. But they can't stop him from getting there, and when he does get there he has elite efficiency.

We fucked up big time

 

[wizenheimer]

As a point guard, which Amen called himself before the draft, he's got some issues.

c'mon man. What relevance is that? It doesn't matter if Amen said he's a PG or not. He's played 104 games and hasn't played a minute at PG

Do you see progress in Amen's three-point shooting?

he shot .138 last season and now .250 this season. He's increased his conversion rate by 81%. That's some progress.

How is he going to be a primary scorer with very little mid-range or long-range game?

who is arguing Amen will be a "primary scorer"?

If that isn't expected of Amen, we're talking about a high-level role player.

maybe try non-primary-scorer/elite-role-player like Jrue Holiday or Draymond Green or Aaron Gordon or Andre Iguodala or Michael Cooper or Dennis Rodman or Tony Allen or Buck Williams or....

I get it, you guys are high on Scoot. As I said I really like his progression. But I can also see that Amen is well ahead of Scoot right now while having a huge impact for the team with the 3rd best record, and at this point has as big a remaining upside as Scoot; maybe bigger

 

[wizenheimer]

We fucked up big time

don't piggy-back your trolling BS onto my posts

 

[Natebishop3]

this isn't hack-a-Shaq territory. You're really exaggerating how bad a FT shooter he is and really really exaggerating how willing teams will be to put a 70% shooter on the line while getting in the penalty sooner

he's making 70% of his FT's and attempting 4 a game. Making 2.8 a game. If he was making 80% he'd be converting 3.2 a game. He'd need 2.5 games to make one more FT than he currently is. The league average is 78% by the way

selected players and their FT%

Bam Adebayo .726
Jarrett Allen .726
Toumani Camara .716
Kevin Huerter .714
Wendell Carter Jr. .712
Santi Aldama .707
Alperen Şengün .703
Daniel Gafford .701
CJ McCollum .701
Terance Mann .700
Caris LeVert .699
Amen Thompson .695
Cody Martin .694
Brandon Clarke .686
Rudy Gobert .681
RJ Barrett .670
Kyle Anderson .667
Dwight Powell .667
Zach Edey .662
Jonathan Isaac .658
Isaiah Hartenstein .648
Paolo Banchero .646
Russell Westbrook .639
Jonathan Kuminga .639
Dereck Lively II .638

Bam Adebayo attempts 4.1 FT's a game. Amen 4.0. Bam converts 3.0; Amen converts 2.8. Over a 5 game stretch Bam would only score 1 more point from the FT line than Amen. Teams aren't going hack the shit out of Bam; and they aren't going hack the shit out of Banchero, for instance, who happens to shoot much worse than Amen from the line. The nature of the hacking percentages just aren't as good as you imagine

now obviously if any of those 3 players is close to the basket with an easy shot, teams might foul. And that might especially be true of Amen because he is absolutely an elite shooter in the paint

FG% at rim: Amen .757....Banchero .710....Adebayo .704 (Lebron .756...Giannis .756...Tatum .706...Jokic .685)
FG% in 3-10' zone: Amen .500...Adebayo .417...Banchero .273 (Lebron .511...Giannis .413...Tatum .422...Jokic .586)

the reality seems to be that every opponent knows Amen attacks the paint and the hoop. But they can't stop him from getting there, and when he does get there he has elite efficiency.

There's a major flaw here. Most of the guys you listed are either centers or they're role players.

Amen is being billed as a potential next superstar. Someone linked a tweet saying he's the possibly the best under 25 outside of Wemby/Edwards/Banchero. Superstars get fouled. They go to the line. Gotta make those foul shots.

Of the guys you listed, only Bam, Banchero, and Westbrook could be classified as superstars (or former superstars). I think Russ is an interesting comparison, with the athleticism and attacking the rim.... but Russ has proven to be a huge liability in the playoffs. What happens when Amen is shooting 8 FTA per game? 10 per game?

Side note: the weirdest guy on the list is CJ. It makes zero sense that he's shooting so poorly from the line. He's a good shooter. That's just bizarre.

 

[LayneStaley]

I think Amen is the better player currently but something tells me year 3 will be the breakout year for Scoot.

 

[GoZers]

We fucked up big time

Scoot is already the best player on the team he’s special

This you?

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Congrats Scoot and Scoot fans.

 

[wizenheimer]

There's a major flaw here. Most of the guys you listed are either centers or they're role players.

Amen is being billed as a potential next superstar. Someone linked a tweet saying he's the possibly the best under 25 outside of Wemby/Edwards/Banchero. Superstars get fouled. They go to the line. Gotta make those foul shots..

I haven't billed him as the next superstar. I don't see it. What I do see, as I said, is a potential elite role player; a perennial DPOY candidate with a turbo mode who is deadly in the paint

and again, I think you're really exaggerating how bad 70% FT shooting is. Giannis has had 6 seasons when he shot under 70%; Draymond's career mark is under 71%. There are only 11 players that average 6 FTA/game or more, and all of those guys are high usage #1 options. And there are only 12 other players who average more than 5 FT's. And again, those 12 are all primary scorers on their teams like Maxey, Fox, Lamelo, and Jaylen Brown. That is unlikely to be the role Amen fills

so say his ceiling is around 5 FTA's/game. At 70% he'd average 3.5 points. The league average is 78% and that would yield 3.9 points. That would be the ceiling; 1 less pont every 2.5 games. Somehow, I'm failing to see that as the major flaw in his game that you do. He's also only a year older than Scoot so if Scoot has room for improvement because of youth, Amen has about the same room

 

[Natebishop3]

I haven't billed him as the next superstar. I don't see it. What I do see, as I said, is a potential elite role player; a perennial DPOY candidate with a turbo mode who is deadly in the paint

Well, that's not the kind of player that I'm going to lose sleep over. Hell, that could be Clingan or Camara.

and again, I think you're really exaggerating how bad 70% FT shooting is. Giannis has had 6 season when he shot under 70%; Draymond's career mark is under 71%. There are only 11 players that average 6 FTA/game or more, and all of those guys are high usage #1 options. And there are only 12 other players who average more than 5 FT's. And again, those 12 are all primary scorers on their teams like Maxey, Fox, Lamelo, and Jaylen Brown. That is unlikely to be the role Amen fills

so say his ceiling is around 5 FTA's/game. At 70% he'd average 3.5 points. The league average is 78% and that would yield 3.9 points. That would be the ceiling. Somehow, I'm failing to see that as the major flaw in his game that you do. He's also only a year older than Scoot so if Scoot has room for improvement because of youth, Amen has about the same room

I just don't see how anyone can compare him to a guy who's 7 feet tall with a 7'3 wingspan and an absolutely insane monster in the paint. He's not Giannis (unless he gets some kind of crazy growth spurt.)

Draymond kinda sucks in a lot of ways. Sure he was a great role player, but if he had been on a team other than the warriors, I'm really not sure if he would have stuck in the league. He was in the absolute best situation to bring out his skills and showcase his ability as a glue guy. There was another dude who fit almost that exact description and he was sort of unceremoniously kicked out of the league.... Lance Stephenson.

But it feels like you and I are having two different debates. I'm saying that his shooting (three point and free throws) will hold him back. It seems like you're essentially agreeing with me because you're saying he's going to be an elite role player.

 

[wizenheimer]

Well, that's not the kind of player that I'm going to lose sleep over. Hell, that could be Clingan or Camara.



I just don't see how anyone can compare him to a guy who's 7 feet tall with a 7'3 wingspan and an absolutely insane monster in the paint. He's not Giannis (unless he gets some kind of crazy growth spurt.)

Draymond kinda sucks in a lot of ways. Sure he was a great role player, but if he had been on a team other than the warriors, I'm really not sure if he would have stuck in the league. He was in the absolute best situation to bring out his skills and showcase his ability as a glue guy. There was another dude who fit almost that exact description and he was sort of unceremoniously kicked out of the league.... Lance Stephenson.

But it feels like you and I are having two different debates. I'm saying that his shooting (three point and free throws) will hold him back. It seems like you're essentially agreeing with me because you're saying he's going to be an elite role player.

understand that I think at least one elite role player is essential for a contender. Think Scottie Pippen

here are Pippen's FT% over his first 7 seasons:

.576
.668
.675
.706
.760
.663
.660

and his 3ptFG%:

.174
.273
.250
.309
.200
.237
.320

obviously it was a different era, but that's not good shooting. Now Pippen was a playmaker who had the ball in his hands a lot and had 5 straight seasons averaging over 7 assists. Amen won't get that open runway to ball dominance playing with VanVleet, Green, and Sengun

Sorry, but I'm dismissing your FT argument. Could be, in this version of the NBA, Amen's lack of a three-ball will make a lower ceiling than a player like him would have had 20 years ago. It is refreshing though to see a player generate major impact without chucking up a half dozen three's a game

 

[Natebishop3]

understand that I think at least one elite role player is essential for a contender. Think Scottie Pippen

here are Pippen's FT% over his first 7 seasons:

.576
.668
.675
.706
.760
.663
.660

and his 3ptFG%:

.174
.273
.250
.309
.200
.237
.320

obviously it was a different era, but that's not good shooting. Now Pippen was a playmaker who had the ball in his hands a lot and had 5 straight seasons averaging over 7 assists. Amen won't get that open runway to ball dominance playing with VanVleet, Green, and Sengun

Sorry, but I'm dismissing your FT argument. Could be, in this version of the NBA, Amen's lack of a three-ball will make a lower ceiling than a player like him would have had 20 years ago. It is refreshing though to see a player generate major impact without chucking up a half dozen three's a game

I was thinking about Pippen too and I think that's the best case scenario for Amen. Pretty good best case scenario but Pippen became a really decent three point shooter.

 

[handiman]

Pippen was also somewhat like Kersey, with both developing reliable midrange shots. Looking at 3pt shooting in that era is pretty pointless, as only select players refined that skill enough for the percentages to look good by today's standard.

 

[Samuel]

I think Amen is the better player currently but something tells me year 3 will be the breakout year for Scoot.

(only if they schmire schmauncey schmillups.)

 

[wizenheimer]

I was thinking about Pippen too and I think that's the best case scenario for Amen. Pretty good best case scenario but Pippen became a really decent three point shooter.

Pippen did become decent at three's; but it didn't start happening till his 7th season when he was 28. In his first 6 seasons, he only averaged around 1.0 three point attempts a game. He only had 450 total attempts in those 6 years.

it was when he stated bumping up his attempts that his % started improving.

His attempts/game went from 1.0-->1.1-->2.7-->4.0-->5.2
at the same time his conversion rate went from .200-->.237-->.320-->.345-->.374

that might be the track Amen takes. He might always be a shitty three point shooter who rarely makes the attempt. Or, he might have the drive and BBIQ to keep working at his game and improve in both three's and FT's. At this point, it sure looks like he has drive and BBIQ

in fact, the rest of the NBA knowing he can't shoot the three and rarely tries means the defense is consistently backing off of him, daring him to shoot the long ball, and trying to deny the paint and rim. But he still manages to take over 80% of his shots in the paint with a near elite conversion rate. Drive/BBIQ

Pippen was also somewhat like Kersey, with both developing reliable midrange shots. Looking at 3pt shooting in that era is pretty pointless, as only select players refined that skill enough for the percentages to look good by today's standard.

I did mention the different era factor

but shooting mechanics haven't changed, just the distances shot and repetition. Pippen spent 10 years, 4 in the NCAA and 6 in the NBA, before there was any improvement in his 3-ball (he spent 15 years before his FT% improved). It takes time and that repetition. In those 10 years, Pippen played 653 games. Amen has played 105.

something else about the different era factor: when Pippen played when three's weren't as emphasized as they are today. Meaning that FT's had a bigger impact. And Pippen's career FT% was a shade over 70%. Still, even with that 'handicap' Pippen was named all-NBA 7 times; all NBA defense 10 times (8 times first team), and 7 all-star games. The first of those awards came in his 4th season

all that said, I don't expect Amen to reach the level of Pippen

 

[42N8Bounce]

2023-24 game summary:
- Good: 15%
- Neutral: 53%
- Bad: 32%

2024-25 game summary:
- Good: 20%
- Neutral: 48%
- Bad: 33%

Past 15 games summary:
- Good: 33%
- Neutral: 34%
- Bad: 33%

Steady progress.

 

[handiman]

I did mention the different era factor

but shooting mechanics haven't changed, just the distances shot and repetition. Pippen spent 10 years, 4 in the NCAA and 6 in the NBA, before there was any improvement in his 3-ball (he spent 15 years before his FT% improved). It takes time and that repetition. In those 10 years, Pippen played 653 games. Amen has played 105.

something else about the different era factor: when Pippen played when three's weren't as emphasized as they are today. Meaning that FT's had a bigger impact. And Pippen's career FT% was a shade over 70%. Still, even with that 'handicap' Pippen was named all-NBA 7 times; all NBA defense 10 times (8 times first team), and 7 all-star games. The first of those awards came in his 4th season

all that said, I don't expect Amen to reach the level of Pippen

Midrange shooting is the key point I was making. That's what wing players primarily worked on developing back then, and is why Pipped could be such an effective player despite 3pt shooting. That's what relates to Amen and having more ground to make up as far as avoiding the hack-a-Shaq treatment.

 

[wizenheimer]

Midrange shooting is the key point I was making. That's what wing players primarily worked on developing back then, and is why Pipped could be such an effective player despite 3pt shooting. That's what relates to Amen and having more ground to make up as far as avoiding the hack-a-Shaq treatment.

if mid-range is defined exclusively as the 16'>3p zone, then sure. Pippen was better then than Amen is now. But for the 16'>rim zone, Amen is better. Amen only takes 5% of his shots in that 16'>3p zone. And clearly, the changes in the NBA from Pippen's days till now have devalued that longer mid-range game a ton

by the way, Amen is now up to 71% FT shooting on the season, and 73% in January

 

[blazerfan11]

Scoot Henderson, #1 in True Shooting % and #2 in 3-point percentage so far in January.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Scoot Henderson, #1 in True Shooting % and #2 in 3-point percentage so far in January.

View attachment 70525

View attachment 70526

Maybe if Scoot continues to improve more he can be moved to 3rd string.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Maybe if Scoot continues to improve more he can be moved to 3rd string.

So he is improving while only playing 28 minutes per game. Shocking

 

[Phatguysrule]

So he is improving while only playing 28 minutes per game. Shocking

Did anybody say he wouldn't improve? Or did they say his development could be stunted or delayed?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Did anybody say he wouldn't improve? Or did they say his development could be stunted or delayed?

Either way, it is ridiculous to think that an extra 4 minutes per game is going to make a huge difference in his development. One might argue that Chauncey is actually smarter about the PG position than any of us, and he is bringing Scoot along the right way.

 

[Phatguysrule]

Either way, it is ridiculous to think that an extra 4 minutes per game is going to make a huge difference in his development. One might argue that Chauncey is actually smarter about the PG position than any of us, and he is bringing Scoot along the right way.

Then why all the talk about Scoot being a bust? Why does he play so well when he's given a bigger role?

It's never been as much about the minutes as it has been about his role.

Scoot's development has absolutely been slowed by this insanity. As has Sharpe's.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Either way, it is ridiculous to think that an extra 4 minutes per game is going to make a huge difference in his development. One might argue that Chauncey is actually smarter about the PG position than any of us, and he is bringing Scoot along the right way.

What do you mean 4mpg?

Scoot started 5 games leading the Blazers to wins playing great passing, scoring, and defending while averaging 35mpg.

Then Scoot got benched and played 14 minutes.

That's a 21 minute reduction.

 

[blazedanugz]

What do you mean 4mpg?

Scoot started 5 games leading the Blazers to wins playing great passing, scoring, and defending while averaging 35mpg.

Then Scoot got benched and played 14 minutes.

That's a 21 minute reduction.

He fouled out in 14 minutes

 

[Pinwheel1]

Then why all the talk about Scoot being a bust? Why does he play so well when he's given a bigger role?

It's never been as much about the minutes as it has been about his role.

Scoot's development has absolutely been slowed by this insanity. As has Sharpe's.

Some say Scoot is a bust and doesn't deserve more minutes, others say Scoot is a bust because he doesn't get enough minutes to develop. I think both of these theories are
ridiculous because he has never been a bust. He has been 19. Not a fan of giving someone the reigns just because he was a high draft pick. Screw that. If they want to start, then they can earn it. Scoot has improved very quickly IMO. You have to give the coaches some credit for that.