ESPN projects Blazers at least top11 in West

[HailBlazers]

It's actually kind of sad he hasn't responded to our bets in this thread.

Just proves me right.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Just proves me right.

Hey now don't take ALL the credit. I think there are a gang of us pig piling on him at the moment. its a shared win!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Ratings updated and we are indeed 11th in the Western Conference:



No. 11: Portland
Portland is rebuilding after losing four starters this summer. Thankfully, the hardest part, finding a corner-stone, is done. Lillard, 25, projects to have the fifth-best WARP among point guards this season (11.3). And the Trail Blazers should have $32 million to spend next offseason. A rebuild is tough to take after a 51-win season, but at least Portland is positioned to make it a short one. --Kevin Pelton
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BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Man, it must suck to be a Kings fan:



No. 12: Sacramento
In owner Vivek Ranadive's world, Sacramento, a team that hasn't eclipsed 30 wins since 2007-08, is ready now. In this world, new point guard Rajon Rondo (projected RPM of -4.7), shooting guard Marco Belinelli and small forward Caron Butler propel this team to the West's upper echelon. The reality? This season's team is only marginally better -- typical theater for the NBA's most dysfunctional franchise. -- Amin Elhassan
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I was surprised that they didn't manage to win 30 games last year. They started off 9-5 and everyone was saying they were going to make the playoffs, then they remembered they are the Kings and only won 20 more games the rest of the season. Plus, their payroll is 65% higher than ours and they are full or chronic headcases.

BNM

 

[Draco]

25% Chance at the playoffs? I'll take it!



Or is it 0.25%; a quarter of 1%:MARIS61:

Obviously, Portland lost more production than any team in the NBA over the summer. Players responsible for more than 60 percent of the Blazers' 2014-15 points and nearly two-thirds of their rebounds have departed. Still, don't pencil Portland in among the league's bottom five teams. There's more talent here than the reputations of the Blazers' players might indicate. Aminu and McCollum are favorites of ESPN's real plus-minus; Davis, Leonard and Plumlee are high-efficiency scorers; and Vonleh has the potential to help right away.

Portland's inexperience and limited outside shooting on the wing will probably prevent the team from making a playoff push, but if veteran coach Terry Stotts can find the right combinations to get the most out of the new pieces, the Blazers could remain competitive. Thirty wins is a realistic baseline, and RPM-based projections show Portland closer to 40 wins than 30.

Assuming they're out of the playoff race, the Blazers won't have much incentive to milk every win out of this season, which could limit their total. This year may end up looking like 2012-13, Lillard's rookie campaign, when Portland was 33-36 before losing its final 13 games.

I wonder why the RPM projections show us closer to 40 wins?

 

[BonesJones]

25% Chance at the playoffs? I'll take it!

View attachment 6301

Or is it 0.25%; a quarter of 1%:MARIS61:



I wonder why the RPM projections show us closer to 40 wins?

well 200-1 means we have a 0.5% chance of winning a ring so it must be 25%..

 

[Draco]

Shoot it is only a quarter of one percent, see the Pistons are 8.69. Funny that the odds of us winning the title are 200-1 but the ESPN "BPI" odds of us only making the playoffs are 400-1. Wouldn't you think its harder to win a title than make the playoffs; like way harder?

 

[Draco]

well 200-1 means we have a 0.5% chance of winning a ring so it must be 25%..

Yeah its a funny projection. The technical explanation is the ESPN odds are a mathematical model that should in theory be a more accurate projection. The sports book odds are there to induce betting and profits for casinos.

Still I think we're way better than a 400-1 shot to make the playoffs. I agree in that we likely don't make it; but to go from #11 to #8 is only a jump of 3 spots which teams do all the time. That's historically not a 400-1 type of unlikely situation.