Actually, 3:4 odds seems about right to me. Dallas is the favorite, with the higher seed, better record and HCA, but this series could go either way.
The good thing is I value the opinions of the three that picked the Blazers over the four that didn't. Hollinger tries to come up with a formula for everything, and things don't always go as calculated, but at least he has some solid research and data behind his predictions. Stein just goes by his emotional gut feel, and that's much less bankable.
In any case, I like our chances. The two games we lost to Dallas were both close, and before we had Gerald Wallace. We've beaten them twice in the last month. So, recent head-to-head favors us. As does recent play, in general. Our bigger guards will give them fits. And, we now have mulitiple really good defenders, both bigs and on the perimeter. The game slows down in the playoffs, which places even greater importance on defense and rebounding. With Camby, Aldridge, Wallace, Batum and Matthews we have five above average to elite level defenders. Dallas can't match that. Their best perimeter defender, Stevenson, is an offensive zero, and their offensive minded guards/wings (Terry, Beubois, Barea and Peja) are absolutely horrible defenders.
If this was football, with different players playing offense and defense, I'd give Dallas a much better chance, but in basketball, where everyone plays both ways, I give the edge to the Blazers. In order for Dallas to put a decent defensive team on the court, they have to sacrifice offense. If they go for offense, their defense sucks. With players like Wallace, Batum, Matthews, and Aldridge, Portland can field a team that plays great defense, but can still score at the other end and I think that's what tips this series in Portland's favor.
BNM
