Zombie Fire Olshey

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I would keep Plums over Meyers and Mo. If the only reason to get rid of him is the salary cap I would find other ways to lower our cap amount.
If he can offload Meyers, without having to take back anything too odious, I'm all for it. I just have serious doubts that he is going to be easy to move before the deadline.
 
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In my opinion, there's a big misconception that if a team is capable of playing well sometimes, they're capable of playing that well all the time and if they don't, it's the fault of lack of hustle, coaching, leadership, etc. But it isn't the case that occasional good games means that's the level they can play at all the time--variance exists both on the individual level and the team level. Players will sometimes play above their usual level in short stretches (and sometimes below their usual level for short stretches). The same is true of teams.

This isn't some special characteristic of the Trail Blazers that demonstrates unfulfilled talent level--every bad/mediocre team has stretches of looking much better than their record. If we applied this standard league-wide (a team is as talented as their very best play) every team "should be" playing .750+ ball or something along those lines.

The average over a longer stretch, like the entire season to date, is a much better baseline for setting expectations--unless there's some major extenuating circumstance, like a superstar having missed a long stretch of the season (Aminu doesn't qualify, in my opinion, though your mileage may vary). It isn't at all surprising to me that they can beat Cleveland and then lose to in blowouts to the Magic and Wizards and it doesn't change my expectations for the team. They didn't "turn a corner" in the Cleveland game, or the games before that, they just had a stretch of unusually good play.

Stotts may be a problem, or he may not, but I don't think their failure to live up consistently to their best games is indication of that. I also don't think they're inconsistent in giving effort (or, at least, no more so than any other team)--they're a below-.500 team that's experiencing the usual ups and downs from that baseline.

Last years games in the second half were not occasional though. So I disagree with the premise.
 
2oth in defensive efficiency last year. 27th in defensive efficiency this year. 7th in offensive efficiency last year. 9th in offensive efficiency this year. And really I wouldn't call it a "long sample size" last year, it was about a half-season of play.

Last years sample size is as long as the sample size from this season to date (about a half-season). Which means you're arguing that the season so far isn't a long sample size, is this correct? I would disagree - half a season, or 50% of the entire season, is a rather significant sample size... It's so big in fact relative to the entire season that I wouldn't even call it a sample size at that point. I'd call it half the season.

My point was that even if you account for a half-season of average defense, it's not like they were lights out and it still wasn't much of a sample. Secondly, after that half-season of play I'm guessing coaches around the league simply adjusted and implemented some strategies over the off-season to counter Stotts' approach last year. The last week or two shows that Stotts is maybe finally countering the counter. Who knows where it will go from here: Cleveland and Lakers good. Orlando and Washington bad.

It doesn't take anywhere near half a season for coaches to adjust in the NBA. And I don't think coaches were setting aside time in the off-season to figure out Portland's "average defense", as you put it. That actually made me laugh. They'll scout and game-plan for us during the season, just as they did last year, and just as they do for everyone else.
 
Neil has always been an amazing talent evaluator.

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Near max money for Crabbe?

$10m/per for Meyers?

Neil lacks creativity, how is he any different than John Nash?

1. When faced with a decision to draft an elite player at a position that was already filled, he chose the better player over need.

2. He carefully managed team finances to allow for this summer. Nash would have probably given JJ Hickson of Joel Freeland a max deal.

3. He has identified under valued assets in Aminu, Harkless, Plumlee, Napier, and Davis.

This thread is ridiculous. No other team has done more after five major rotation players left via free agency, getting nothing in return, and without a complete tank.
 
3. He has identified under valued assets in Aminu, Harkless, Plumlee, Napier, and Davis.
I'll give you Harkless and Plumlee, but the others are valued exactly where they should be, if not slightly overvalued. And now he has to trade Plumlee or stick him on the overvalued list.
 
I'll give you Harkless and Plumlee, but the others are valued exactly where they should be, if not slightly overvalued. And now he has to trade Plumlee or stick him on the overvalued list.

Aminu is not a steal? Napier and Davis are also worth more than they are getting paid.

As for Plumlee, we have options and will atleast give Olshey a chance to make that move an even bigger positive before criticizing it. This summer, his market may not be that big. Which team do you see throwing big money at him?

For the past two years, everyone has had to overpay. To get players on good contracts is very commendable.
 
Near max money for Crabbe?

$10m/per for Meyers?

Neil lacks creativity, how is he any different than John Nash?

I'd say Neil drafts better than Nash. Nash' drafts were terrible, Telfair, Webster (especially considering who he overlooked). Neil FA and trade record suck though.
 
1. When faced with a decision to draft an elite player at a position that was already filled, he chose the better player over need.

2. He carefully managed team finances to allow for this summer. Nash would have probably given JJ Hickson of Joel Freeland a max deal.

3. He has identified under valued assets in Aminu, Harkless, Plumlee, Napier, and Davis.

This thread is ridiculous. No other team has done more after five major rotation players left via free agency, getting nothing in return, and without a complete tank.

Is #2 supposed to be a joke??
 
I wouldn't call myself an Olshey fan, but I do wonder how much of what he's done (or not) comes down to Allen, McGowan and the Vulcans getting their input. Is Bert Kolde (remember him?) still sniffing around trying to play at GM?
 
Aminu is not a steal? Napier and Davis are also worth more than they are getting paid.
No way. Last season they looked like relative bargains, but this year they aren't even worth their contracts. I don't know what Napier is making, but he's not really earning whatever it is he's making.
 
I wouldn't call myself an Olshey fan, but I do wonder how much of what he's done (or not) comes down to Allen, McGowan and the Vulcans getting their input. Is Bert Kolde (remember him?) still sniffing around trying to play at GM?

Olshey had commented that Paul did not want a complete rebuild when he first took the job. I do not think there is much influence other than Paul telling him what major direction to take.
 
No way. Last season they looked like relative bargains, but this year they aren't even worth their contracts. I don't know what Napier is making, but he's not really earning whatever it is he's making.

For 1.3M, he is doing just fine as a third pg.

Aminu has struggled offensively, but has still been a good defender. Davis has provided a few quality minutes as well.

None of the three are super bargains but hardly the reason we are struggling.
 
Fire Stotts and hire Hollins
 
I'm surprised Olshey hasn't lobbied to bring Mike Dunleavy into the fold as an assistant....he's Olshey's mentor...gave him his first coaching job
 
Fire Stotts and hire Hollins
There's more to this team's lackluster performance than coaching. Which isn't to say that coaches don't get fired and replaced for this kind of shit all the time. So, I have no problem with replacing Stotts with a new voice, but I don't think you're going to get the cure you're looking for -- this is primarily a roster problem.
 
There's more to this team's lackluster performance than coaching. Which isn't to say that coaches don't get fired and replaced for this kind of shit all the time. So, I have no problem with replacing Stotts with a new voice, but I don't think you're going to get the cure you're looking for -- this is primarily a roster problem.
There needs to be roster changes as well. But we can fire Stotts now. Then tell Hollins we're gonna hire him in the offseason.
 
There needs to be roster changes as well. But we can fire Stotts now. Then tell Hollins we're gonna hire him in the offseason.
Again. I'm not opposed to firing Stotts -- this is at least partly his responsibility, and it's always easier to get rid of a coach than it is to blow up a team -- but what makes you think Lionel Hollins has any answers? The front-court is a shambles. We have two ball-dominant guards who are negative defenders and together form an undersized tandem. Lionel Hollins can't change their deficiencies of talent and size.
 
Again. I'm not opposed to firing Stotts -- this is at least partly his responsibility, and it's always easier to get rid of a coach than it is to blow up a team -- but what makes you think Lionel Hollins has any answers? The front-court is a shambles. We have two ball-dominant guards who are negative defenders and together form an undersized tandem. Lionel Hollins can't change their deficiencies of talent and size.
Like I just said...... There needs to be roster changes.....
 
None of them are the reason the Blazers are struggling--they're just not important enough to overcome the extreme overpays Olshey handed out to Turner, Crabbe and, most egregiously, Leonard.

Would we be thinking the same thing if we trade CJ for a star and those guys start contributing more?

Turner and Crabbe are overpays now but will look much better next year. If we do not pay the tax this year, I still do not have a problem with their contracts.

Our problem IMO is CJ and Lillard simply should not be in a starting lineup together. Too many shots between two guys and needs to be supported with defensive studs. This cannot be addressed till the end of the month at earliest.
 
Would we be thinking the same thing if we trade CJ for a star and those guys start contributing more?

No, but I don't expect them to start contributing significantly more. I think Crabbe and Leonard, while young, are extremely limited players and I don't personally expect that to change much because Crabbe hasn't improved much (by the numbers) over his years in the NBA and Meyers is actually regressing.

Turner has a much broader set of skills but, unfortunately, without a shot, his value takes a major hit and he is what he is--he's not young enough to expect any major changes to his game. As I've said before, he's basically our Shaun Livingston, but makes like 4 times as much.

Turner and Crabbe are overpays now but will look much better next year. If we do not pay the tax this year, I still do not have a problem with their contracts.

I don't agree that their contracts will look "much" better next year. They'll look slightly better next year, as the cap bumps up a bit, but they'll still be grossly overpaid. They'll need to improve hugely for their contracts to look like anything but albatrosses, in my opinion.

If you feel that they're going to improve hugely (after a McCollum trade that you expect) then I understand your optimism. I don't see it, though.

Our problem IMO is CJ and Lillard simply should not be in a starting lineup together.

Well, we agree about this, mostly due to the defensive issues they create. I'm skeptical that Olshey will deal either Lillard or McCollum, but I'm certainly willing to wait and see.
 
This is going to be an interesting next month, or so. Olshey can't just sit on his hands. His job is in jeopardy IMO after he spent all this money in the summer for not much production. There's going to be some moving and shaking, or Olshey can kiss his ass goodbye.

#2 highest salary in the league and we can't beat scrub teams on an East Coast road trip. Its not going to get any easier.
 
I'll start complaining after the trade deadline, or at least after our "targets" start getting traded elsewhere. So far neither has happened.
 

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