Ford's mock draft 5.0 (Insider)

[BrianFromWA]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...ory?columnist=ford_chad&page=MockDraft-100616

Has us taking Whiteside if we stick at #22, but has us trying to jump OKC, SAS (among others) to get to Boston's #19 pick for Solomon Alabi.
Boston at 19:

Analysis: Alabi may seem like a bit of a reach to some, but he appears to be one of the hotter names in the draft at the moment. The Raptors, Celtics, Spurs, Thunder, Heat and Blazers are all showing interest. Those are all teams with historically good draft track records, so watch carefully. Alabi measured as one of the tallest and longest players in the draft, and he showed a nice skill game and a terrific motor in the drills.

Some scouts are comparing him to Dikembe Mutombo. I don't think Alabi has the same sort of rebounding and shot-blocking ability, but he does have a similar demeanor and presence on the court.

POR @ 22:

(Whiteside's previous position: No. 16 to Minnesota)

Analysis: The Blazers, as we reported on Tuesday, have been active trying to move up to No. 19 or higher in the draft. Their target? I've been doing some research and I believe they're after Solomon Alabi.

To get him, they'll likely have to get up higher in the draft. If they can't get him, or one of their other targets, look for them to be content to grab Whiteside. The Blazers love his talent though, like the rest of the NBA, they're worried about his maturity.

However, the Blazers have the resources and culture in place to bring him along slowly, and help give him the on-court and off-court skills he needs to succeed. He's a long-term project, but with Marcus Camby mentoring him, he could be a home run.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I don't trust Alabi, maybe he'll be great but I've seen a few breakdowns of his game (Hollinger's draft rater and Thorpe's analysis) and both guys suspect he'll be a bust. That's certainly not ironclad, but it does give me a lot of pause when I see his name mentioned as our target.

The other question is this: What does this say about Greg's future with the team? Or does this say more about Joel's status and Camby being 36?

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

You also have to watch out for smokescreens. This is about the time KP was 'after' Serge Ibaka but was really targeting Nic Batum.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I think the latter. Of course Greg's injury history is going to be on the front burner of everyone's mind, but I think that they're penciling him in going forward for 65 games a year of 20+ PER and a big-time Drtg and TRB%, which I don't think is unreasonable. At that point, you just need someone who can come in and play defense for the White Team--in the mold of Joel or Camby. I think Joel has officially become JPEC now, and Camby (as you said) is a war-torn 36.

 

[Blaze01]

Not overlly surprising to see POR go for a big man, for one this draft is relatively deep for big men, not usually the case.....

and given Oden's injury woes to date and Camby and Przybilla's ages and contract status, grooming a back up big man is very important for the team long term.....

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

We need a defensive minded back up center and a PG for the post-Miller era.

My thinking is that if we do not move up, we will take Dominique Jones. A big PG who will defend and seems to be moving up the board. If we move up in the draft, I see us after a center.

One off thought is SG. Roy is oft injured, Rudy may be leaving and Bayless is too small for SG. I wouldn't be surprised if we take a sharp shooting SG.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I think it's more likely that we pick up a big, or a PG. Other than Turner, I don't see us going for a SG/SF. I mean, Webster can back up both Batum and Roy and has shown he deserves minutes if for no other reason than his commitment to D. Bayless may or may not be gone, but he can play the 2. If all else fails, you can go after Redick this summer. I don't see us looking at Paul George or Pondexter (though I like him a lot) or Jones.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I think it's more likely that we pick up a big, or a PG. Other than Turner, I don't see us going for a SG/SF. I mean, Webster can back up both Batum and Roy and has shown he deserves minutes if for no other reason than his commitment to D. Bayless may or may not be gone, but he can play the 2. If all else fails, you can go after Redick this summer. I don't see us looking at Paul George or Pondexter (though I like him a lot) or Jones.

My only problem with Webster as a backup SG is his ball handling skills. They seem fairly poor for that position.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

We need a defensive minded back up center and a PG for the post-Miller era.

My thinking is that if we do not move up, we will take Dominique Jones. A big PG who will defend and seems to be moving up the board. If we move up in the draft, I see us after a center.

One off thought is SG. Roy is oft injured, Rudy may be leaving and Bayless is too small for SG. I wouldn't be surprised if we take a sharp shooting SG.

I agree that another shooting guard would be valuable, but I imagine we'll be more likely to try to pick up a vet on the cheap in free-agency (such as Toney Douglas or Keith Bogans) rather than pick up a rookie.

 

[RR7]

While Ford tends to get decent info at times, he always seems off on who we actually like.

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I agree that another shooting guard would be valuable, but I imagine we'll be more likely to try to pick up a vet on the cheap in free-agency (such as Toney Douglas or Keith Bogans) rather than pick up a rookie.

And I like that idea.

 

[handiman]

I have a theory, totally unsupported by facts or research, that picking a center outside of the top-3 is pointless. Starting caliber centers go at the very top of the draft, and the rest of them are slapped with the "project" label and rarely amount to a more productive career than the journeyman 7'ers available every off-season or for cheap at the trading deadline.

 

[hasoos]

And I like that idea.

I would rather pick up JJ Reddick. He actually played a bit of point last year and did quite well off the bench. I believe him and Bayless could be a killer combo off the bench.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

I would rather pick up JJ Reddick. He actually played a bit of point last year and did quite well off the bench. I believe him and Bayless could be a killer combo off the bench.

Sure, I'd love Redick, as long as we get rid of Rudy. Obviously he'd cost more than the other guys I mentioned, but it'd be less than MLE, and he'd be worth it.

 

[BGrantFan]

I have a theory, totally unsupported by facts or research, that picking a center outside of the top-3 is pointless. Starting caliber centers go at the very top of the draft, and the rest of them are slapped with the "project" label and rarely amount to a more productive career than the journeyman 7'ers available every off-season or for cheap at the trading deadline.

Brook Lopez went 10th in the 2008 draft. I'm not sure what the means other than the scouts of many teams missed on him.

 

[Ed O]

I'm all for Portland picking another big guy, but I'm not sure they've already locked in on a center. Alabi is only two months younger than Oden, in particular, so unless they think Oden is REALLY broken, I can't imagine they'd take a project that doesn't seem to have that much upside.

Ed O.

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

Hollinger was definitely not a fan of Alabi. He put him in the 'dud' category with a projected per of +9.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I have a theory, totally unsupported by facts or research, that picking a center outside of the top-3 is pointless. Starting caliber centers go at the very top of the draft, and the rest of them are slapped with the "project" label and rarely amount to a more productive career than the journeyman 7'ers available every off-season or for cheap at the trading deadline.

2008: Brook Lopez at 10
2007: Joakim Noah at 9,Tiago Splitter at 28, Marc Gasol at 48!
2005: Andrew Bynum at 10
2003: Kendrick Perkins at 27

 

[Nikolokolus]

I have a theory, totally unsupported by facts or research, that picking a center outside of the top-3 is pointless. Starting caliber centers go at the very top of the draft, and the rest of them are slapped with the "project" label and rarely amount to a more productive career than the journeyman 7'ers available every off-season or for cheap at the trading deadline.

You've got company. Here's Hollinger's take on Hasheem Thabeet:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/players/hollinger?playerId=4016

I have a basic rule of thumb with big centers: If they can play worth a hoot they almost always go in the top three picks. Occasionally a Chris Kaman or Andrew Bynum slips through the cracks to the late lottery, and once in a while a Michael Olowokandi or a Shawn Bradley goes in the top three, but as a basic rule it's a good one.

 

[handiman]

2008: Brook Lopez at 10
2007: Joakim Noah at 9,Tiago Splitter at 28, Marc Gasol at 48!
2005: Andrew Bynum at 10
2003: Kendrick Perkins at 27

Splitter hasn't entered the league yet and Perkins is barely better than the journeyman group always available, so how many busts were there over the 7 years you went back to find those 4 examples?

I have a basic rule of thumb with big centers: If they can play worth a hoot they almost always go in the top three picks.

Nice find!

Occasionally a Chris Kaman or Andrew Bynum slips through the cracks to the late lottery...

I guess you could extend top-3 out to top-10 and cover nearly every center worth a damn, but going that deep is bound to turn up a ton more busts than home runs, and that gets us nowhere near the low 20's we're looking at this year.