"Freak-Out Date"

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When is it no longer "too early" to worry about the Blazers' performance this season?

  • 4/11--Wake me up when the playoffs start; we're a lock to be in them anyway.

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I always say 20 games to get an idea and work out the kinks. But that game last night was a complete shit show and this teams has an awful lot of work to do.
 
There are guys on this team who can play better, and a couple who need to but I am not sure can. We all have our different scapegoats. For some it is Stotts, others it's Dame or CJ or just the fact they start next to one another. Aminu, Harkless, ET all get some hate as well. Nurk if he hasn't.....inevitably will. Meyers........

For me I am more concerned with our offense than our defense. I am not freaking out because I could see it was going to be a problem and why I picked the Blazers to end up with only 45 wins. But I will be ready for a lineup change in about 10-13 more games if our starting small forward does not shoot better than 37% from the field.

We can not rely on Nurk to be a go to guy. He can still average double figures but our center can not be one of our top 3 scoring options. Too many turnovers will occur and there will be the foul problem issues. It has to be our SF IMO and unless Hark starts to dominate defensively then we need to mix it up. (and not with one of our rookies) Maybe an Aminu and Vonleh combo, but even that has it's drawbacks with the lack of a 3rd ball handler.
 
Instead of freak-out date, I'd call it the predictability date. You don't need to wait till a quarter of the season in.

40 years ago, I decided the number is 10. I noticed that the standings heave up and down early, but settle/stabilize by the 10th game. So I start looking at the standings 10 games in, and it has always worked for me. By then, the standings give a reliable indicator of which teams will surprise this season, either positively or negatively.
 
Instead of freak-out date, I'd call it the predictability date. You don't need to wait till a quarter of the season in.

40 years ago, I decided the number is 10. I noticed that the standings heave up and down early, but settle/stabilize by the 10th game. So I start looking at the standings 10 games in, and it has always worked for me. By then, the standings give a reliable indicator of which teams will surprise this season, either positively or negatively.
But this year 7 games in you get your starting PF back.
 
But this year 7 games in you get your starting PF back.

Yes, each season 10 games in, there will be a couple of teams skewed downward by a key injury.

But where that injured team is in the standings after game #10, still gives you a good idea of how good the team will be that season, even after the key player returns. If they suck without him, they won't move way up in the standings after he's back. Their problem is elsewhere in their roster or coaching.

(Vonleh is not a key player anyway. We have only one key player, Lillard, because of the odd Stotts system preventing guards from playing defense, and because Olshey refuses roster balance by trading the overrated McCollum for a star scoring Small Forward.)
 
Yes, each season 10 games in, there will be a couple of teams skewed downward by a key injury.

But where that injured team is in the standings after game #10, still gives you a good idea of how good the team will be that season, even after the key player returns. If they suck without him, they won't move way up in the standings after he's back. Their problem is elsewhere in their roster or coaching.

(Vonleh is not a key player anyway. We have only one key player, Lillard, because of the odd Stotts system preventing guards from playing defense, and because Olshey refuses roster balance by trading the overrated McCollum for a star scoring Small Forward.)
Fair enough. I usually go with 20 games. Just because it seems that is when the changes happen.
 
Crock.

Of.

Shit.


Really? You have never heard of this? Sure, there are, or have been the exceptions, Sloan, Phil, George etc..look how many coaches have been chased off by "star" players.

It used to be that it was easier to fire a coach than a player. With the new CBA and shorter term contracts, there has been a higher retention rate because they can move unhappy players easier.


oh, and if you really want to converse, try to bring something more constructive. Your post could be construed to be an attempt to make a response personal.
 
Really? You have never heard of this? Sure, there are, or have been the exceptions, Sloan, Phil, George etc..look how many coaches have been chased off by "star" players.

It used to be that it was easier to fire a coach than a player. With the new CBA and shorter term contracts, there has been a higher retention rate because they can move unhappy players easier.


oh, and if you really want to converse, try to bring something more constructive. Your post could be construed to be an attempt to make a response personal.

That post was a crock of shit. Anyone who construed it as anything else would be mistaken. But the bottom line is none of us know what happens behind closed doors.
 
Nah. The team is playing hard and their defense looks tons better than it did last year. I've felt for awhile now that Vonleh was much more important to the team than stats indicate, and I stand by that. The pairing of Harkless and Aminu is pretty bad on offense. Even though Aminu has been awesome so far this year, teams don't respect the shooting, driving, or passing game of either player, so they sag off both and put tons of pressure on CJ and Dame and do their best to attack the pick and roll. Nurk still isn't much of a 1vs1 threat, and is probably less of one without the extra weight. This team isn't going far with Nurk being forced to do things he's not good at. One of his biggest strengths was as a play-maker from the high-post. With four guys standing around the perimeter, and two of them being pressured a ton while the other two are mostly ignored, that's gone. Vonleh helps out by clearing up some of that logjam. If the team continues to be terrible on offense after that, then I'll realign my expectations.
 
Did you expect Dame, Nurkic, and Harkless all to be shooting 40% or worse on the season?
No sir. I look at Mo as anything we get from him is a bonus. His style I love, with no real go to moves, but solid on the defensive end. He and Ed are my two favorite on the team, but I can't plan on getting anything consistent from the two. #Gravy

As far as Dame, I plan on him averageing around exactly what he did last season. He will be fine. Nurk and his struggles I didn't expect. Didn't expect him to continue his high level of play from last spring, but thought he would be better than this.
 
No sir. I look at Mo as anything we get from him is a bonus. His style I love, with no real go to moves, but solid on the defensive end. He and Ed are my two favorite on the team, but I can't plan on getting anything consistent from the two. #Gravy

As far as Dame, I plan on him averageing around exactly what he did last season. He will be fine. Nurk and his struggles I didn't expect. Didn't expect him to continue his high level of play from last spring, but thought he would be better than this.
If Dame and Nurkic are performing significantly below their talent level and your expectations, and the team as a whole is (according to your previous post) performing at the level of your expectations, then the logical follow is that the team's talent level is actually above your expectations.
 
If Dame and Nurkic are performing significantly below their talent level and your expectations, and the team as a whole is (according to your previous post) performing at the level of your expectations, then the logical follow is that the team's talent level is actually above your expectations.
Bro you lost me halfway thru this post........give me a sec I have to go back and re-read FAMS!
 
If Dame and Nurkic are performing significantly below their talent level and your expectations, and the team as a whole is (according to your previous post) performing at the level of your expectations, then the logical follow is that the team's talent level is actually above your expectations.
Nope, I tried again and went cross eyed.
 
1/4 of a season is plenty to get a feel of the team and enough of a sample size.

Unfortunately, so far, the team has looked similar to last seasons - pre-Nurk.
Playing in spurts, poor focus, pedestrian pace, lack of killer instinct/ability to close games all along with big servings of Hero ball.
Just a constant uphill battle. A style of ball that is frustrating in regards to win/loss column & viewing as a fan.
 
The Blazers have the same number of losses as the Warriors. Think Warriors fans are freaking out yet?

The Blazers don't have their shit together yet, but it's too early to get too nervous about it. That said, they do need to start showing signs that they're getting into their offensive flow soon.

Don't compare apples with oranges. Warriors are proven team, champions. We only have proven to be good at first round exits.
 
I pity people who think NOAH VONLEH is going to be the savior. This really isn't about "freaking out" it's about coming to terms with, and realizing what this team is.

I've already figured it out, hopefully you goons do sooner or later.
 
Like MM said, there really is no reason to freak out because we were never gonna win the title this year. I have no expectations. Where I do freak out a bit is in the off-season where we can’t seem to get Dame and cj help while we extend or overpay for mediocre talent instead.
 
Don't compare apples with oranges. Warriors are proven team, champions. We only have proven to be good at first round exits.

I wasn't comparing anything. Just noting that it's too early to be making the kinds of decisions that some around here are advocating (trading key players, changing coaches). A couple of baskets difference and the Blazers are 6-1 right now instead of 4-3. They're still the same team either way. We know that the offense isn't producing nearly as efficiently as the same core group of players managed last season. There's no identifiable reason for that, so it's reasonable to wait until about a fourth of the season is in the books before thinking about changes that may need to be made.
 
Since both 3 and 9 are magic numbers, it only makes sense that 27 (3x9, or 3x3x3. or 3^3) would magical too. Especially if you love baseball like @Strenuus does [162=2(3*3*3*3)] #MathNerd




Someone else got my math! ;)

So you posted dates. To me it isnt about a date. Its about going 5 games under .500. That is my freak out date. Whenever that is, I'm not sure. I hope I don't have to freak out cause when I freak out, I FREAKA THE FUCK OUT!!!
 
10 games is my traditional prediction date. The team is now 6-4, better than I expected. Finishing at .600 (49.2 wins) is too much for me to believe, so I will now predict 46 to 48 wins.
 
10 games is my traditional prediction date. The team is now 6-4, better than I expected. Finishing at .600 (49.2 wins) is too much for me to believe, so I will now predict 46 to 48 wins.
Your Jazz are 5-5. What do you predict for them?
 
My Jazz have less talent than your Blazers. I watched a few minutes and noticed that Rodney Hood, who was expected to be our main scorer, on his best day is a Will Barton. I have yet to see that best day. I've read that the Jazz coach is better than Stotts because What's-his-name knows defense. I'm familiar with Rubio and Gobert. When I learn any names, I'll predict the wins. First I'll have to buy those dice I once saw with letters on the sides.

Oh yeah, Favors too. And I noticed that that new rookie Donovan guy is small but they call him big. He's as short as Lillard but thinner. Hood's a failure so the rook is starting. I know all about these guys. Also there's Jingles, the white guy who totally sucks. I'll learn his real name someday. Oh yeah, and the stadium is named Vivent, which I conjecture means "sucks" in the language of one of their many European players. Could be a rogue Australian translation of "blimey."
 

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